ADVERTISEMENT

Reopening

4-4-3

Posts Like A Champion
Gold Member
Jan 29, 2003
4,055
1,572
113
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/...te=1&user_id=a37f734911fee2041220fd4105594734

At this stage, these are policy discussion points, not formally recommended policy. I’m neither touting nor doubting them but merely presenting them without comment for discussion.

What the piece illustrates is a version of the multifaceted RISK MANAGEMENT approach we will necessarily be adopting to reopen society. Whether or not these particular ideas are adopted, there will need to be a plan.

Because this won't be about flipping a switch.

Without attribution to any of the discussion’s participants, here's some of what emerged:


· Institute a national stay-at-home policy through mid-May. During this period, massively ramp up testing, determine the rate of infection among the population, isolate the infected and provide alerts to the population on the whereabouts of the virus.

· If these efforts are successful – BUT ONLY IF THEY’RE SUCCESSFUL – begin easing restrictions in June. If efforts are unsuccessful, then restrictions remain in place until a later date.

· Rethink how we manage risk.

· Restart the economy IN STAGES.

· Larger gatherings – concerts, conferences and sporting events – should be the last to return. “Realistically we’re talking fall 2021 at the earliest.”

· Possibly reopen restaurants, using table spacing, sooner.

· Recognize that if things reopen, the case rate could rise, requiring a re-imposition of shelter-in-place strictures.

· If life in general and the economy in particular don’t return to normal in 18 months, consider factors OTHER THAN THE SOLE OBJECTIVE OF PREVENTING DEATHS. (I hope there’s a moral philosopher or two in the house to tackle that one.)

· In other words, is there some “acceptable” death total in exchange for reopening the economy? Because when the economy opens, SOME WILL DIE AS A CONSEQUENCE. Even as some will die as a result of it staying closed.

· “I think the assumption . . . that we have to do everything to reduce the number of deaths is not really the right assumption.

· It’s clear that the poor tend to die at a greater rate in these situations.

· Whole swaths of employment are being wiped out by the shutdown.

· Not everyone will experience the recovery evenly.

· Schools cannot be reopened without the buy-in of students, parents, teachers, faculties, administrators and all of the various groups employed by the education industry.

· In the interest of tracking the disease, those not infected may wind up with an electronic immunity passport.

· “The kind of shift to reopening we’re talking about can happen only once we have a lot of other infrastructure that makes the public-health side of the equation work well.”


There’s quite a bit more to the piece, but I’ll stop here. It should be pretty clear that this will be a massive undertaking and that nothing is guaranteed.
 
Last edited:
Open things up and fast. Old sick farts like myself will stay home and be careful when we go out. I say this as someone who lost a life long friend to covid-19..
 
  • Like
Reactions: BodiTheGreat
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/...te=1&user_id=a37f734911fee2041220fd4105594734

At this stage, these are policy discussion points, not formally recommended policy. I’m neither touting nor dinging them but merely presenting them without comment for discussion.

What the piece illustrates is a version of the multifaceted RISK MANAGEMENT approach we will necessarily be adopting to reopen society. Whether or not these particular ideas are adopted, there will need to be a plan.

Because this won't be about flipping a switch.

Without attribution to any of the discussion’s participants, here's some of what emerged:


· Institute a national stay-at-home policy through mid-May. During this period, massively ramp up testing, determine the rate of infection among the population, isolate the infected and provide alerts to the population on the whereabouts of the virus.

· If these efforts are successful – BUT ONLY IF THEY’RE SUCCESSFUL – begin easing restrictions in June. If efforts are unsuccessful, then restrictions remain in place until a later date.

· Rethink how we manage risk.

· Restart the economy IN STAGES.

· Larger gatherings – concerts, conferences and sporting events – should be the last to return. “Realistically we’re talking fall 2021 at the earliest.”

· Possibly reopen restaurants, using table spacing, sooner.

· Recognize that if things reopen, the case rate could rise again, requiring a re-imposition of shelter-in-place strictures.

· If life in general and the economy in particular don’t return to normal in 18 months, consider factors OTHER THAN THE SOLE OBJECTIVE OF PREVENTING DEATHS. (I hope there’s a moral philosopher or two in the house to tackle that one.)

· In other words, is there some “acceptable” death total in exchange for reopening the economy? Because when the economy opens, SOME WILL DIE AS A CONSEQUENCE. Even as some will die as a result of it staying closed.

· “I think the assumption . . . that we have to do everything to reduce the number of deaths is not really the right assumption.

· It’s clear that the poor tend to die at a greater rate in these situations.

· Whole swaths of employment are being wiped out by the shutdown.

· Not everyone will experience the recovery evenly.

· Schools cannot be reopened without the buy-in of students, parents, teachers, faculties, administrators and all of the various groups employed by the education industry.

· In the interest of tracking the disease, those not infected may wind up with an electronic immunity passport.

· “The kind of shift to reopening we’re talking about can happen only once we have a lot of other infrastructure that makes the public-health side of the equation work well.”


There’s quite a bit more to the piece, but I’ll stop here. It should be pretty clear that this will be a massive undertaking and that nothing is guaranteed.

Unfortunately not everyone has the financial means to escape Manhattan to Dutchess County. Large swarths of the population in NYC especially REAL NYC ( Outer Boros) do not have AC. Once temps start going up the folks are heading to the beaches. I don't blame them. Cops to enforce? HAHA, that is a demoralized group attacked and vilified by Debalsio, BLM, and new hipsters in NYC. Also a lot of videos circulating of Hasidic Jews not listening to social distance and still attending services. All over Boro Park & Midwood Brooklyn. At least the NYPD 66PCT lived up to it's moniker from years ago " Ft Surrender"
 
Unfortunately not everyone has the financial means to escape Manhattan to Dutchess County. Large swarths of the population in NYC especially REAL NYC ( Outer Boros) do not have AC. Once temps start going up the folks are heading to the beaches. I don't blame them. Cops to enforce? HAHA, that is a demoralized group attacked and vilified by Debalsio, BLM, and new hipsters in NYC. Also a lot of videos circulating of Hasidic Jews not listening to social distance and still attending services. All over Boro Park & Midwood Brooklyn. At least the NYPD 66PCT lived up to it's moniker from years ago " Ft Surrender"


Same problem with Hasidic communities in Jersey! they become the epicenter of the virus and it goes out from there. One can guess they are going into the city and returning spreading the virus along the ways. Then they frequent the stores, such that in order to shop safely locals have to drive 40 miles away from their home base, away from that community, to feel they are somewhat safer!
And the Jersey Gov. is preaching social distance and stay home! Quarantine.
But! there are always buts, like in buttheads.

This virus is not done with us!
 
Unfortunately not everyone has the financial means to escape Manhattan to Dutchess County. Large swarths of the population in NYC especially REAL NYC ( Outer Boros) do not have AC. Once temps start going up the folks are heading to the beaches. I don't blame them. Cops to enforce? HAHA, that is a demoralized group attacked and vilified by Debalsio, BLM, and new hipsters in NYC. Also a lot of videos circulating of Hasidic Jews not listening to social distance and still attending services. All over Boro Park & Midwood Brooklyn. At least the NYPD 66PCT lived up to it's moniker from years ago " Ft Surrender"

Correct. I'm lucky to have gotten out. And I'm sorry others, like yourself, couldn't. If there's one thing this pandemic has spotlighted, it's the gross inequalities in American society.

Though we knew that all along. Now, it's just obscenely more evident.

But, then, given your comments, what's your perceived end game? Continuing transmission of the disease in New York and a breakdown of civil society? One could read that into what you're saying, but I'd rather hear from you.

Because if there are significant pockets of resistance to whatever is decided, things could get tense. And I do intend to come back.
 
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/...te=1&user_id=a37f734911fee2041220fd4105594734

At this stage, these are policy discussion points, not formally recommended policy. I’m neither touting nor doubting them but merely presenting them without comment for discussion.

What the piece illustrates is a version of the multifaceted RISK MANAGEMENT approach we will necessarily be adopting to reopen society. Whether or not these particular ideas are adopted, there will need to be a plan.

Because this won't be about flipping a switch.

Without attribution to any of the discussion’s participants, here's some of what emerged:


· Institute a national stay-at-home policy through mid-May. During this period, massively ramp up testing, determine the rate of infection among the population, isolate the infected and provide alerts to the population on the whereabouts of the virus.

· If these efforts are successful – BUT ONLY IF THEY’RE SUCCESSFUL – begin easing restrictions in June. If efforts are unsuccessful, then restrictions remain in place until a later date.

· Rethink how we manage risk.

· Restart the economy IN STAGES.

· Larger gatherings – concerts, conferences and sporting events – should be the last to return. “Realistically we’re talking fall 2021 at the earliest.”

· Possibly reopen restaurants, using table spacing, sooner.

· Recognize that if things reopen, the case rate could rise, requiring a re-imposition of shelter-in-place strictures.

· If life in general and the economy in particular don’t return to normal in 18 months, consider factors OTHER THAN THE SOLE OBJECTIVE OF PREVENTING DEATHS. (I hope there’s a moral philosopher or two in the house to tackle that one.)

· In other words, is there some “acceptable” death total in exchange for reopening the economy? Because when the economy opens, SOME WILL DIE AS A CONSEQUENCE. Even as some will die as a result of it staying closed.

· “I think the assumption . . . that we have to do everything to reduce the number of deaths is not really the right assumption.

· It’s clear that the poor tend to die at a greater rate in these situations.

· Whole swaths of employment are being wiped out by the shutdown.

· Not everyone will experience the recovery evenly.

· Schools cannot be reopened without the buy-in of students, parents, teachers, faculties, administrators and all of the various groups employed by the education industry.

· In the interest of tracking the disease, those not infected may wind up with an electronic immunity passport.

· “The kind of shift to reopening we’re talking about can happen only once we have a lot of other infrastructure that makes the public-health side of the equation work well.”


There’s quite a bit more to the piece, but I’ll stop here. It should be pretty clear that this will be a massive undertaking and that nothing is guaranteed.

So this is where you wound up, with your underlines and bolds and italics and many words?

Driving the free folk crazy now, eh?

Nice.
 
Same problem with Hasidic communities in Jersey! they become the epicenter of the virus and it goes out from there. One can guess they are going into the city and returning spreading the virus along the ways. Then they frequent the stores, such that in order to shop safely locals have to drive 40 miles away from their home base, away from that community, to feel they are somewhat safer!
And the Jersey Gov. is preaching social distance and stay home! Quarantine.
But! there are always buts, like in buttheads.

This virus is not done with us!

Purse the Nazi ! He compares Jews to a virus !
 
Correct. I'm lucky to have gotten out. And I'm sorry others, like yourself, couldn't. If there's one thing this pandemic has spotlighted, it's the gross inequalities in American society.

Though we knew that all along. Now, it's just obscenely more evident.

But, then, given your comments, what's your perceived end game? Continuing transmission of the disease in New York and a breakdown of civil society? One could read that into what you're saying, but I'd rather hear from you.

Because if there are significant pockets of resistance to whatever is decided, things could get tense. And I do intend to come back.

The city has to open up. If you don’t open up there will be no need to open up. My brothers job in midtown pays a monthly rent of 165K a month. How many months before they decide to close for good? If you’re old and sick. Time to reconsider living in the big Apple. You think cops are gonna stop the masses from going to public beaches? Those fireproof pj’s get pretty hot with no AC’s.
 
The city has to open up. If you don’t open up there will be no need to open up. My brothers job in midtown pays a monthly rent of 165K a month. How many months before they decide to close for good? If you’re old and sick. Time to reconsider living in the big Apple. You think cops are gonna stop the masses from going to public beaches? Those fireproof pj’s get pretty hot with no AC’s.

well then this time next Easter, it will be a lot less crowded in NYC. NYC will bring calamity upon itself, as it has since Feb.

My advice to NJ is plug up the Tunnels and blow up the bridges then create a NJ coast guard to patrol for swimmers and boat people.

Also have a NJ residence ID card to be visible when out in public. No card you get cannon fired across the Hudson.
 
The city has to open up. If you don’t open up there will be no need to open up. My brothers job in midtown pays a monthly rent of 165K a month. How many months before they decide to close for good? If you’re old and sick. Time to reconsider living in the big Apple. You think cops are gonna stop the masses from going to public beaches? Those fireproof pj’s get pretty hot with no AC’s.

From an economic standpoint, the City does have to open up. But if there's still danger, will enough people risk the necessary social interaction?

Will people still go to clothing stores and try on jeans? Those kinds of places could be toast either way. Same with restaurants. And how about legal liability? There are all sorts of pandemic carve-outs in insurance policies.

What I'm saying is 1) people still may not play ball and 2) merchants may not make it anyway or be willing to assume potential new liabilities.

This is why whatever happens must be phased. There can't be some kind of all-clear whistle because that's not how the threat disappears. it follows a curve.

As for the police being disrespected? If that happens, say hello to the National Guard. And you know what that means.

I went to high school in central Newark one year before the riots, and my brother started at the same school a year after the riots.

We lucked out. But a lot of people in that central ward neighborhood got shot. If they bring the National Guard into New York and people free-lance, those folks will be risking it.
 
From an economic standpoint, the City does have to open up. But if there's still danger, will enough people risk the necessary social interaction?

Will people still go to clothing stores and try on jeans? Those kinds of places could be toast either way. Same with restaurants. And how about legal liability? There are all sorts of pandemic carve-outs in insurance policies.

What I'm saying is 1) people still may not play ball and 2) merchants may not make it anyway or be willing to assume potential new liabilities.

This is why whatever happens must be phased. There can't be some kind of all-clear whistle because that's not how the threat disappears. it follows a curve.

As for the police being disrespected? If that happens, say hello to the National Guard. And you know what that means.

I went to high school in central Newark one year before the riots, and my brother started at the same school a year after the riots.

We lucked out. But a lot of people in that central ward neighborhood got shot. If they bring the National Guard into New York and people free-lance, those folks will be risking it.

Dude. What happened to the bolds, italics and underlines???

Disappointed.
 
From an economic standpoint, the City does have to open up. But if there's still danger, will enough people risk the necessary social interaction?

Will people still go to clothing stores and try on jeans? Those kinds of places could be toast either way. Same with restaurants. And how about legal liability? There are all sorts of pandemic carve-outs in insurance policies.

What I'm saying is 1) people still may not play ball and 2) merchants may not make it anyway or be willing to assume potential new liabilities.

This is why whatever happens must be phased. There can't be some kind of all-clear whistle because that's not how the threat disappears. it follows a curve.

As for the police being disrespected? If that happens, say hello to the National Guard. And you know what that means.

I went to high school in central Newark one year before the riots, and my brother started at the same school a year after the riots.

We lucked out. But a lot of people in that central ward neighborhood got shot. If they bring the National Guard into New York and people free-lance, those folks will be risking it.


Used to go to the Central High School BB games! Bembry, Lott, Key, Jennings!
who was that big Center? That team played way above the Rim!

as for 4-4-3
genius is rarely recognized and no prophetic opinion is accepted in his home land

I was in the Army and was on So. Orange Ave during the riots!

I would hear them come back from Downtown and friends ask ‘what’d ya get?’
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: rgc7
Guys,
I think that too many of you are too pessimistic!
Unless China has unleashed a new man made virus that was designed to not have a
Cure, we will survive it.
I believe further that President Trump ,with the help of God ,will receive excellent advice
From his advisors, make the correct decisions,
and within the next few months, the country will be well on the road to returning to normal.
Today is the feast of Christ’s victory over death, and he will hear our prayers, and we will
Defeat this terrible virus sooner than most
People think.
Happy Easter !
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: d1042
Used to go to the Central High School BB games! Bembry, Lott, Key, Jennings!
who was that big Center? That team played way above the Rim!

as for 4-4-3
genius is rarely recognized and no prophetic opinion is accepted in his home land

I was in the Army and was on So. Orange Ave during the riots!

I would hear them come back from Downtown and friends ask ‘what’d ya get?’

^^^443 with another alter ego^^^
 
Used to go to the Central High School BB games! Bembry, Lott, Key, Jennings!
who was that big Center? That team played way above the Rim!

as for 4-4-3
genius is rarely recognized and no prophetic opinion is accepted in his home land

I was in the Army and was on So. Orange Ave during the riots!

I would hear them come back from Downtown and friends ask ‘what’d ya get?’

I went to St. Benedict's. We played all the Newark schools --Central, East Side, West Side, South Side -- in football. I had a good game against Central as a senior: a TD and an interception. We all played both ways in those days.

So, you were deployed on South Orange Avenue during the riots? That was a tough neighborhood. Can't imagine what it must have been like with sporadic gunfire. Newark was an intense place in the 60's.

One morning, as we were walking up the hill to school, a gun battle erupted around us. Someone had robbed a liquor store at 8 AM, and the proprietor had opened up on the burglar.

But, at least, no one was pulling guns out in the classroom. We hadn't evolved yet to that point.
 
I went to St. Benedict's. We played all the Newark schools --Central, East Side, West Side, South Side -- in football. I had a good game against Central as a senior: a TD and an interception. We all played both ways in those days.

So, you were deployed on South Orange Avenue during the riots? That was a tough neighborhood. Can't imagine what it must have been like with sporadic gunfire. Newark was an intense place in the 60's.

One morning, as we were walking up the hill to school, a gun battle erupted around us. Someone had robbed a liquor store at 8 AM, and the proprietor had opened up on the burglar.

But, at least, no one was pulling guns out in the classroom. We hadn't evolved yet to that point.

I grew up in upstate New York. The crabapple and snowball fights were intense ! You had to have had a hard head to survive !
 
The city has to open up. If you don’t open up there will be no need to open up. My brothers job in midtown pays a monthly rent of 165K a month. How many months before they decide to close for good? If you’re old and sick. Time to reconsider living in the big Apple. You think cops are gonna stop the masses from going to public beaches? Those fireproof pj’s get pretty hot with no AC’s.

Some
I grew up in upstate New York. The crabapple and snowball fights were intense ! You had to have had a hard head to survive !

But you made it, right?

Same as then, survival is paramount.
 
The country will open up prudently, gradually and selectively !

That's the hope, right?

We need to execute. But trial and error means trials without errors are rare. And we're practicing with live rounds something we haven't done before.

There will certainly be drama. I just hope it's not predominantly tragedy.
 
I went to St. Benedict's. We played all the Newark schools --Central, East Side, West Side, South Side -- in football. I had a good game against Central as a senior: a TD and an interception. We all played both ways in those days.

So, you were deployed on South Orange Avenue during the riots? That was a tough neighborhood. Can't imagine what it must have been like with sporadic gunfire. Newark was an intense place in the 60's.

One morning, as we were walking up the hill to school, a gun battle erupted around us. Someone had robbed a liquor store at 8 AM, and the proprietor had opened up on the burglar.

But, at least, no one was pulling guns out in the classroom. We hadn't evolved yet to that point.


was Joe Aulisi coaching there when you attended St B’s ?
 
That's the hope, right?

We need to execute. But trial and error means trials without errors are rare. And we're practicing with live rounds something we haven't done before.

There will certainly be drama. I just hope it's not predominantly tragedy.

^^^ 3 words in italics. Lame.^^^
 
We have to start planning. There is no magic formula. We really need a quick test in place. I am reading in other countries that folks are having their temperature taken before they are allowed into establishments.

My intuition says that this will be touch and go until we get a vaccine in place. Then we need 330,000,000 doses of it. We will have to rely on better testing, social distancing and a cure in the meantime while we open things up.
 
  • Like
Reactions: d1042
yes. he was a Gym teacher in our H.S.

I think he had a brother who also coached at Benedict's before I got there.

I didn't have much to do with Joe. I was a back. My coach was a guy named Johnny Allen who also coached wrestling and later did likewise at Seton Hall University, where I believe he had some success.

At Benedict's, he was a legend. His two best wrestlers, the Caruso brothers, went something like 160 and 1 over their careers. Mike never lost and Freddy only once.

Allen was also a great math teacher.
 
  • Like
Reactions: d1042
We have to start planning. There is no magic formula. We really need a quick test in place. I am reading in other countries that folks are having their temperature taken before they are allowed into establishments.

My intuition says that this will be touch and go until we get a vaccine in place. Then we need 330,000,000 doses of it. We will have to rely on better testing, social distancing and a cure in the meantime while we open things up.

I'm largely in agreement with that.

My concern is that there will be a mortality calculus like the ones used in war time. A level of "acceptable" deaths as a trade-off for getting the economy going sooner than later.

If such a calculus is made, it's likely to be leaked and could set off a firestorm in all communities, but particularly in minority and poorer ones, where the death rate is higher.

If that leads to greater polarization and civil unrest, they'll deploy the National Guard, a prospect I would not relish.

What I'll be looking carefully at in any plan is LINE ONE: MISSION STATEMENT.
 
going to be hard to control the same people who have not respected the current social restrictions and rules! they will attempt to stir the civil unrest. most likely they will receive encouragements and manipulation by political opportunists.

this is the sick times we live in
 
going to be hard to control the same people who have not respected the current social restrictions and rules! they will attempt to stir the civil unrest. most likely they will receive encouragements and manipulation by political opportunists.

this is the sick times we live in

That's my concern.

This could also pit the young against their elders. The young naturally feel invincible, while the old, for good reason, feel vulnerable.

So, in the end it may come down to this: people taking whatever chances are afforded them based on their belief in their own immune systems.

In which case, the disease will then take whom it will take.

As for reopening things, that's a tricky problem. And no matter how we do it, I can't help but think that some loss of life will occur as a direct consequence.

Reopening will not come without a price.

In fact, I just heard one doctor say that as long as the hospital system doesn't get overwhelmed, certain relaxations can occur.
In other words, as long as we can handle patient loads, it's not such a problem.

Well, patient loads will still include deaths. And what groups will comprise the majority of those deaths? I think we know. Minorities, the poor, the elderly.

I can't see any way this won't get nasty.
 
  • Like
Reactions: rgc7 and d1042
the elderly should get directly (on line) and change their wills! then the whole tone of the discussion will change! no joke!
 
the elderly should get directly (on line) and change their wills! then the whole tone of the discussion will change! no joke!

No, I'm thinking wills every day. Especially, since our lawyer just died of the virus. We're now getting an associate of his up to speed.

Here's the latest COVID-19 projection/graph from Morgan Stanley Research done, no doubt, by one of their biotech analysts.

It includes anti-viral, vaccination and projected return-to-work timelines. Note the projected SECOND WAVE envisioned between November 2020 and March 2021.

This is why many in the medical community see no fans-in-the-stands SPORTS until 2021 at the earliest.

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/MS coronavirus timeline.jpg?itok=ckqsN0pV

I'd love to see the data behind this projection.
 
No, I'm thinking wills every day. Especially, since our lawyer just died of the virus. We're now getting an associate of his up to speed.

Here's the latest COVID-19 projection/graph from Morgan Stanley Research done, no doubt, by one of their biotech analysts.

It includes anti-viral, vaccination and projected return-to-work timelines. Note the projected SECOND WAVE envisioned between November 2020 and March 2021.

This is why many in the medical community see no fans-in-the-stands SPORTS until 2021 at the earliest.

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/MS coronavirus timeline.jpg?itok=ckqsN0pV

I'd love to see the data behind this projection.

someone probably found it on the Path train! fell out of briefcase of someone at Homeland Security!

what color was the crayon?
 
someone probably found it on the Path train! fell out of briefcase of someone at Homeland Security!

what color was the crayon?

The timelines seem reasonable to me. Based, at least, on current data.
 
agree. As time goes on this virus .. this virus will be viewed as a natural cleansing by the least vulnerable. and subsequently those feeling that way will transition into the vulnerable group! then it will be serious!, Heck the virus might acquire a taste for some nice fresh meats!

Here is what I would do. The > 60 class creates a vaccine. Then vaccinate the over 60 group. Then vaccinate the under 12. But the vaccine is only for 40 years! Then lock the vaccine away for 55 years!
 
agree. As time goes on this virus .. this virus will be viewed as a natural cleansing by the least vulnerable. and subsequently those feeling that way will transition into the vulnerable group! then it will be serious!, Heck the virus might acquire a taste for some nice fresh meats!

Here is what I would do. The > 60 class creates a vaccine. Then vaccinate the over 60 group. Then vaccinate the under 12. But the vaccine is only for 40 years! Then lock the vaccine away for 55 years!

I like the idea of vaccinating the more vulnerable first.

My current concern is that it could take a number of months to locate the virus sufficiently via testing, so as to open the economy up without fear of a setback spike in cases.

And that's before any consideration of any naturally occurring second wave.
 
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT