I think two things are being discussed separately
Make or break for them being a starter here vs make or break for them being a really good player here
Baker may start this year, but he's not good, and that's not good if we have to start him. If wagner can't beat baker out this year it would be very shocking if he's ever anything more than what i'd recommend if he's not big enough to start (6th linemen).
I think the point tex is trying to make and I agree with, there's nothing infront of him that's any good at RT, so after 3 years if he can't get good good enough or put the needed weight on, he lost a huge opportunity. This would be a different story if he was trying to beat out Alt.
Fisher wasn't playing that great and Baker couldn't sniff the field, and when he did in blow out time, he wasn't very good.
in my mind, if you can't grab/win an opportunity right infront of you after 3 years in the program with minimal competition, it's not good, why i agree this is his make or break opportunity.
On the flip side, maybe wagner already is the best but they made a mistake like they did with LT in 2021 until they were forced to play ALT.