where are we now?

[perseverare]

looks like the PAC12 elimination is within ND's power, by beating SU.

The ACC has a single unbeaten, but if FSU beats Clemson (very possible, to likely) then the ACC eliminates itself as an obstacle.

Then, if ND gets help from either OSU or Ok. or Tx in the Big12 they could eliminate themselves as in the way.

Then tOSU needs to beat MSU to assure 1 B10 team only.

So it comes down then to Bama vs LSU, that whoever wins that game does so decisively. Idealy, Bama beats LSU and UGA beats UF and UF wins the SEC championship game! all 2 loss teams!

What else? oh, ND must win out!

 

[NCDomer1]

We are in a good spot at number nine consider them teams in front of us have to play each other including our show down with Stanford. People forget all we have to do is move up five spots for the playoffs . We beat Stanford and bama vs lsu or. TCU vs Baylor and msu vs osu automatically moves us up to atleast numbr six with a lot of football left. Everyone complains about our schedule but we did. Not play any high school teams for the first three games

 

[Tru2Irish]

We are in a good spot at number nine consider them teams in front of us have to play each other including our show down with Stanford. People forget all we have to do is move up five spots for the playoffs . We beat Stanford and bama vs lsu or. TCU vs Baylor and msu vs osu automatically moves us up to atleast numbr six with a lot of football left. Everyone complains about our schedule but we did. Not play any high school teams for the first three games

Maybe the refs screw FSU over like they did ND and Clemson wins out. Karma. Just typin'.

 

[BGI User 348]

looks like the PAC12 elimination is within ND's power, by beating SU.

The ACC has a single unbeaten, but if FSU beats Clemson (very possible, to likely) then the ACC eliminates itself as an obstacle.

Then, if ND gets help from either OSU or Ok. or Tx in the Big12 they could eliminate themselves as in the way.

Then tOSU needs to beat MSU to assure 1 B10 team only.

So it comes down then to Bama vs LSU, that whoever wins that game does so decisively. Idealy, Bama beats LSU and UGA beats UF and UF wins the SEC championship game! all 2 loss teams!

What else? oh, ND must win out!

Yep---Just Win Baby!!!! ND will have 3 ranked opponents to go thru which will build momentum each week. Assuming we get to stanford & they stay on top it could very well be a Top 5 game and ND's qualifier! Offense must score plenty and defense needs to play much better.

It really all comes down to LEADERSHIP and PERFORMANCE. Sit back and enjoy!

 

[kellys heroes 35]

Irish are positioned for a spot - stay healthy and win out and we're home . This is the first time since 2012 where every game in the top 10 impacts on us . Great theater !!!

 

[Bumpdaddy]

I think if we were looking for the least number of dominoes that would need to fall the best case scenario would be for us to win out and for Stanford and Pitt to reach and win their respective conference championship games. That means we will have eliminated both the PAC12 and ACC from consideration. It's extremely unlikely any of the other conferences would get a second team in the playoffs ahead of us so we would be a virtual shoe-in. Of course the possibility of Pitt winning the ACC is a longshot but the scenario is still in play.

 

[BGI User 348]

Pers---If the ND defense starts playing as well as KIZER has then we should win out. Enough with the interviews and speeches...ACTIONS SPEAK LOUDER. JUST DO IT IRISH!!!

BEAT temple!!!

 

[perseverare]

^ actions > words

you got that right, itwas the mantra here at the start of the season!

this is the season of:

actions > words!

 

[Toby Smart]

Would I be out of line by saying that Stanford hasn't played a defense ranked no better than 45th in total defense in all their wins? UCF 88th, USC 66th, Oregon State 112th, Arizona 108th, UCLA 67th, UWash 45th. Or am I just grasping at straws? Would my analysis qualify me for a chair on "College Football Live" or am I just looking for a pool of water in a desert?

 

[perseverare]

straws.

UCLA? they have (had) talent ! but they have a Fr. QB that reminds of Peyton Manning!

 

[ThunderStorm21]

All we can do right now is win out. That needs to be first. I'm nervous for Temple, Pitt etc. based on our recent history.

 

[basketlax41]

One scenario that will be interesting to watch is Oklahoma. If ND and OK win out, between ND and OK...who gets the final four spot. Well each have one loss, but there loss was to a Texas team we destroyed. However, if OK wins out that means the will have wins over OK St, Baylor and TCU all down the stretch. That might be enough to jump us.

This scenario is not totally unlikely, as OK is playing great football and Baylor maybe without their starting QB the remainder of the season.

 

[Epictitus]

The scenario of OU winning out is interesting, though not very likely. Looking at the teams ahead of the Irish it appears that if they win out they are in. If Clemson loses I do not see the ACC getting a team in. Winning until Stanford will make this a great season and the winner of Stanford/ND should be a sure playoff team.

 

[perseverare]

ND: USC and Stanford
Ok: OSU, Baylor and TCU

tough call; the 3 Ok W's are against those trendy but lesser 'name' teams.

you raise a good point. We been trying to get Baylor and TCU out of the mix and lost sight of Ok.

 

[mirer03]

If LSU beats Alabama and then wins out then Alabama is out. period. A two loss Bama cannot get in unless a lot of other teams drop. Their showing against Tennessee might not stop the ESPN darling love they are getting, but it did expose that they are a flawed team. ESPN wants to build up that LSU - Bama game as much as possible for ratings.

I think a close loss by Clemson to FSU in no way eliminates Clemson from the playoff race, in fact it could keep ND out. If Clemson loses to FSU but still wins the ACC title and has a win over ND there is no way ND gets the nod over Clemson as an at large... ND's best shot to get to the playoff is Clemson winning out and ND being a 2 point loss in a monsoon to a top two team in the country. Better for the pac12 and big 12 to cannibalize each other. TCU and Baylor plummet with a loss as both have horrendous SOS and have many hard games left (OU and ok st) and Stanford and ND sort things out to end the season.

 

[BigFellaFan]

I agree, ND with a one loss record should not get in ahead of a one loss Clemson even though ND's SOS will be better. Head to head should matter and it always has outside of the gift given in 1993.

That said, others will fall and if the Irish win out, they should be in.

 

[perseverare]

in a perfect ND world LSU beats Bama and Florida beats LSU in the SEC title game. SEC has 2 loss teams.
The same can happen in the B12; ND eliminates the P12
If FSU beats Clemson and then gets beaten in the ACC title game; FSU and Clemson are out.
(Clemson would be a second place in their conference team!) ?

 

[BGI User 348]

in a perfect ND world LSU beats Bama and Florida beats LSU in the SEC title game. SEC has 2 loss teams.
The same can happen in the B12; ND eliminates the P12
If FSU beats Clemson and then gets beaten in the ACC title game; FSU and Clemson are out.
(Clemson would be a second place in their conference team!) ?

Yep.....Just Win Irish!!!

 

[Java65]

I have to think that a one loss ACC team is going to get in above ND. The committee has already shown they put a lot of value in Conference Championships

 

[perseverare]

Not a 1 loss team that is not conference nor division champ! and if FSU beats Clemson and losses the conf. champ game that is the situation.

 

[basketlax41]

I agree, ND with a one loss record should not get in ahead of a one loss Clemson even though ND's SOS will be better. Head to head should matter and it always has outside of the gift given in 1993.

That said, others will fall and if the Irish win out, they should be in.

I think it depends who their loss is too, and how bad. Committee has to look and determine who they think is the best football team. At the end of the season. Not week 5. If Clemson loses to a bad team or gets beat by a large margin, i think it is totally fair to look back at NDs loss to Clemson and factor in weather and rookie QB, and determine that ND is now playing superior football than Clemson. (again this is just hypothetical IF they lose...cause clemson right now is playing very well)

 

[Toby Smart]

Stanford. The media's love affair with Stanford. The foreboding warning ND is receiving from the Stanford loving media. It's everywhere. Kinda reminds me of the warnings the Irish received leading up to GT. Then, the same warnings leading up to Clemson, that rock, Death Valley and all that. Turns out. it wasn't intimidating at all. It was just your typical slow start by an ND team that has done that same exact thing against virtually everyone this season. Then, ND was warned that USC will give it their best. Win one for the new guy. Elite athletes. Speed to burn. Cody Kessler. Turns out, ND has a few athletes themselves and Will Fuller looked pretty fast to me. ND has a real shot at beating Stanford but it all depends on their run defense which is sketchy at times. It might be considered a play in game and I feel ND has a real chance at it.

 

[basketlax41]

The scenario of OU winning out is interesting, though not very likely. Looking at the teams ahead of the Irish it appears that if they win out they are in. If Clemson loses I do not see the ACC getting a team in. Winning until Stanford will make this a great season and the winner of Stanford/ND should be a sure playoff team.

Why not likely? They are playing great football right now. They will be favored against OK ST. I think TCU is totally over rated and wold favor OK in that game. Only tough one is Baylor who now has to start a FR QB the rest of the way. I say its 50/50.

 

[Java65]

Not a 1 loss team that is not conference nor division champ! and if FSU beats Clemson and losses the conf. champ game that is the situation.

I think in that situation it will be a toss up between FSU and ND. FSU plays Florida who is currently ranked 11th so under the scenario FSU would have beaten Clemson and UF, 2 good teams. As it stands ND's lone "good" win would Stanford and the committee made it clear last year they don't really care who you lose to, it's who you beat. Georgia Tech and USC have terrible seasons really hurts ND.

 

[perseverare]

I think in that situation it will be a toss up between FSU and ND. FSU plays Florida who is currently ranked 11th so under the scenario FSU would have beaten Clemson and UF, 2 good teams. As it stands ND's lone "good" win would Stanford and the committee made it clear last year they don't really care who you lose to, it's who you beat. Georgia Tech and USC have terrible seasons really hurts ND.

SC might wind up as P12 Champions!

 

[Java65]

ND: USC and Stanford
Ok: OSU, Baylor and TCU

tough call; the 3 Ok W's are against those trendy but lesser 'name' teams.

you raise a good point. We been trying to get Baylor and TCU out of the mix and lost sight of Ok.

I think you are stretching it to call USC a quality win. I think it's very unlikely the committee is going to view a 3 loss team as a quality win. It's very possible USC could lose 4 games as they still have to play Oregon, Cal and UCLA

 

[Java65]

SC might wind up as P12 Champions!

... and Toledo will probably end up as MAC champions.. still not a good win when it's a 3 loss team

 

[Java65]

I wouldn't be shocked at all if we see 2 Big 10 or 2 Big 12 teams in the playoffs. Currently O$U, MSU and Iowa are all undefeated in the Big 10 and Baylor, TCU and OkSt are all undefeated in Big 12. So if it shakes out where 2 or all 3 end up with a loss I could see taking 2 from 1 of those conf.

 

[perseverare]

nah; only LSU and Bama playing a game for the ages won by Bama would have that chance.
Bama wins out and LSU, sitting with that as the only loss, is the only 2 team SEC scenario.

MSU is a tarnished team. And if tOSU wins out MSU is out.

Baylor has a true Fr. QB now.
Ok is the threat. TCU will probably oust Baylor. If TCU beats Ok also, they are in; TCU looked like the weak Sis till Baylor lost it's QB.

 

[Java65]

nah; only LSU and Bama playing a game for the ages won by Bama would have that chance.
Bama wins out and LSU, sitting with that as the only loss, is the only 2 team SEC scenario.

MSU is a tarnished team. And if tOSU wins out MSU is out.

Baylor has a true Fr. QB now.
Ok is the threat. TCU will probably oust Baylor. If TCU beats Ok also, they are in; TCU looked like the weak Sis till Baylor lost it's QB.

I do agree that if MSU loses they are out but only because they would not have beaten a quality team. Don't forget Iowa is undefeated and they won't have to play anybody good until the championship. If they can go to the championship undefeated and lose to an undefeated O$U or MSU I'd bet they have a great chance of getting in.

As for the Big 12, I completely disagree. I think out of these 4; OkSt, OU, Baylor and TCU that if end up with 1 loss 2 get in. They will have, is some fashion, beaten good teams (each other).

Again ND's problem is going to be a terribly weak schedule.

 

[basketlax41]

I think you are stretching it to call USC a quality win. I think it's very unlikely the committee is going to view a 3 loss team as a quality win. It's very possible USC could lose 4 games as they still have to play Oregon, Cal and UCLA

USC can still win the Pac 12. (not that I want them to). If they make it to the Pac 12 championship game (will be favored in every game here on out) and finish the season with their only losses to a top 10 Stanford, ND and bad loss to W, i think they will easily be top 20, and a quality win.

 

[basketlax41]

I do agree that if MSU loses they are out but only because they would not have beaten a quality team. Don't forget Iowa is undefeated and they won't have to play anybody good until the championship. If they can go to the championship undefeated and lose to an undefeated O$U or MSU I'd bet they have a great chance of getting in.

As for the Big 12, I completely disagree. I think out of these 4; OkSt, OU, Baylor and TCU that if end up with 1 loss 2 get in. They will have, is some fashion, beaten good teams (each other).

Again ND's problem is going to be a terribly weak schedule.

I dont get how you can say this. sagarin has NDs scheduled ranked the second toughest of any team in front of them, except Bama.

 

[Java65]

I dont get how you can say this. sagarin has NDs scheduled ranked the second toughest of any team in front of them, except Bama.

I've never been a fan of Sagarin. Just look at ND's schedule. Who have they beaten? GT is awful. USC has already lost 3 games and is likely to lose another. Texas? UVa? UMass. Looking ahead, yes Temple is unbeaten but let's be honest the committee is going to give ND zero credit for beating Temple. If Pitt could win the rest of their games and be a good win.

Last year the committee was clear... it's about who you beat and to date ND has not beat a quality opponent. Their only opponents left that that could give them quality wins are Stanford and Pitt.

 

[basketlax41]

I've never been a fan of Sagarin. Just look at ND's schedule. Who have they beaten? GT is awful. USC has already lost 3 games and is likely to lose another. Texas? UVa? UMass. Looking ahead, yes Temple is unbeaten but let's be honest the committee is going to give ND zero credit for beating Temple. If Pitt could win the rest of their games and be a good win.

Last year the committee was clear... it's about who you beat and to date ND has not beat a quality opponent. Their only opponents left that that could give them quality wins are Stanford and Pitt.

But one can say the exact same thing about the Big 12. Its all so self referential. One big circle. Who has OK played at the end of the season. Baylor? Great how do we know Baylor is any good. Oh they played TCU. And who has TCU played. Oh Oklahoma. And around and around we go. At least ND plays teams from other conferences, which helps to get one out of the endless loop. Three of the teams on NDs schedule just beat 3 teams in the top 10 last week alone. Says something. Not everything, but something. End of the day they could have 4 teams on their schedule that will be playing for conference titles on the last day of the season clemson, usc, stanford, pitt...and i dont know does temple and navy's league have a title game.

Too bad you are not a fan of Sagarin, while its nots perfect, at leaste its more mathematical, and devoid of the subjectivity that makes polls useless.

 

[NDCap]

IMO ND has to win in convincing fashion the next 4 weeks. They need to look impressive both on offense and Defense. That will put ND in a position to go Palo Alto and beat THE team that everyone think might be the best team in the country. I do not see us stopping them right now but I also do not see the Stanford defense stopping us either. The next 4 weeks will decide how good ND is in the eyes of the committee. BTW Texas, GTECH, Navy and USC are all respectable teams RIGHT NOW that is. Texas win over Oklahoma and GTECH win over FSU definitely strengthen ND's resume. GTECH was ranked when ND beat them. That should count as much as Bama beating Olmiss that lost to Memphis. ND is in the mix and the players know it.

 

[Java65]

But one can say the exact same thing about the Big 12. Its all so self referential. One big circle. Who has OK played at the end of the season. Baylor? Great how do we know Baylor is any good. Oh they played TCU. And who has TCU played. Oh Oklahoma. And around and around we go. At least ND plays teams from other conferences, which helps to get one out of the endless loop. Three of the teams on NDs schedule just beat 3 teams in the top 10 last week alone. Says something. Not everything, but something. End of the day they could have 4 teams on their schedule that will be playing for conference titles on the last day of the season clemson, usc, stanford, pitt...and i dont know does temple and navy's league have a title game.

Too bad you are not a fan of Sagarin, while its nots perfect, at leaste its more mathematical, and devoid of the subjectivity that makes polls useless.

I just think it's too mathematical. For example they have Texas ranked in the top 25?!?!? Anybody who has watched them play could tell you they are not a top 25 team. Yes they have played probably the most difficult schedule in the country but they are not a good team. USC in the top 10? That is insane. Yes they have talent but they are one of the most penalized teams in the country and they have 3 losses utterly insane to have them in the top 25. 3-3 WVU whose 3 wins are against Georgia Southern, Liberty and Maryland is ranked ahead of Duke, BSU and Pitt. Every year it's the same their "math" has insane rankings that make me question how valid the formula they are using is. Just because it's math doesn't make it good math.

As for the Big 12, I think the committee is going to look at any win against a 1 or 2 loss Power 5 conference as a good win. So no matter how you want to paint it, I think a win over a 1 loss TCU or Baylor is always going to be better than a win over a 3 loss USC.

 

[FightingIrish44]

I just think it's too mathematical. For example they have Texas ranked in the top 25?!?!? Anybody who has watched them play could tell you they are not a top 25 team. Yes they have played probably the most difficult schedule in the country but they are not a good team. USC in the top 10? That is insane. Yes they have talent but they are one of the most penalized teams in the country and they have 3 losses utterly insane to have them in the top 25. 3-3 WVU whose 3 wins are against Georgia Southern, Liberty and Maryland is ranked ahead of Duke, BSU and Pitt. Every year it's the same their "math" has insane rankings that make me question how valid the formula they are using is. Just because it's math doesn't make it good math.

As for the Big 12, I think the committee is going to look at any win against a 1 or 2 loss Power 5 conference as a good win. So no matter how you want to paint it, I think a win over a 1 loss TCU or Baylor is always going to be better than a win over a 3 loss USC.

Thank you. I've been saying for a long time that his rankings don't pass the common sense test. They're largely useless.

 

[mbd11]

Some of our opponents with mediocre records are actually decent teams that have played very tough schedules - Texas, GTech, USC. Each of them has knocked off an undefeated top 10 team. So I hope the committee gives us more credit for those wins, than merely looking at their W/L records only.

Pitt/UNC tomorrow night is actually a big game for us. An opponent of ours staying ranked will definitely help.

 

[basketlax41]

Some of our opponents with mediocre records are actually decent teams that have played very tough schedules - Texas, GTech, USC. Each of them has knocked off an undefeated top 10 team. So I hope the committee gives us more credit for those wins, than merely looking at their W/L records only.

Pitt/UNC tomorrow night is actually a big game for us. An opponent of ours staying ranked will definitely help.

Exactly. For example, USC has three losses - two of them against top 10 teams, who maybe playing the best ball in the country right now, and destroyed the number 3 team in the country. Texas is two plays from being 5-2, with those two losses again coming against two top 10 teams.

I think Sagarin rankings are not what you look at when you want to ask - what does a team DESERVE to be ranked but what team, regardless of record is BETTER. USC might not deserve to be in the top 10, but would they be favored if they faced any of the teams behind them. I think they would. Texas does not deserve to be in the top 25, but i am confident they would handily beat Duke, Temple, and some of the other teams in the top 25.

I think Sagarin answers a different question, and its not about who is having the best season.

 

[vivalas]

Still a long season to go. Honestly the only team that can skate this thing to remain in the top 4 is OSU. I think Michigan will be a tougher game for them than Mich st but that's just because they have UM on the road.