Rivals Rankings Have Become A Joke

[IrishInOntario]

I've been saying this for a while, but I think Rivals has surpassed ESPN as the most bias ranking outlet there is. Their "punishment" of players via rankings for participating in events that don't support their business, instead of those that do, has become embarrassing as it relates to them trying to maintain that hey are at all objective in their rankings (if that's even their position any longer).

I'll give you two great examples that relate to Notre Dame.

In the recent Rivals 250 update, neither Jayson Ademilola or Braden Lenzy were included. Both were previously ranked inside the top 250 and all Lenzy has done is impressed in everything he's done, while crushing his opposition in state track championships this spring. But because he's running track and participating in The Opening rather than supporting the Rivals 5 star Challenge, he has disappeared from the rankings, in favour of lesser players who are on board with Rivals.

The Jayson Ademilola story is even more ridiculous. This kid is currently the most sought after DT in the country. Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State are doing everything in their power to steal him from Notre Dame. Larry Johnson told his coach that he feels that he's the best DT in the country. Larry Johnson knows about DL coaching... Yet he's not a 250 player lol... Why, because he's off to The Opening?

Mike Farrell and the clowns at Rivals amuse me these days.

If you're wondering the point of ranting about a recruiting service that is clearly more interested in their profit then any kind of objectivity, it's this... Before you freak out about how many "elite" players ND isn't getting, consider how subjective rankings have become.

If you want a better idea of the type of player a kid may be....

1. Watch their film and understand their level of competition.

2. Look at their offer list. If they have 40 offers, from every relavent program in the country, they're probably pretty damn good.

3. Look at 247's Composite ranking which combines the rankings of all 4 major recruiting services. It's not fool proof, but it at least helps compensate for the economical politics that drive the business.

 

[perseverare]

the composite is the 'best solution' ; but realize that if the rating service cannot see to evaluate, what can they do? they sure as hell will not seek out fans, the kids H.S. coach or some other distant opinion.
So, since none of the kids have played games since the last evaluation, they use films of the kids games.
That is all they can do.

Recruiters will say whatever is necessary to entice a kid. No one has seen all the kids in person.
Running fast is not the sum total of being an outstanding WR.

JMO: IF J.A. truly believes L J; then I think (again: jmo) he would be a buck.

 

[IrishInOntario]

the composite is the 'best solution' ; but realize that if the rating service cannot see to evaluate, what can they do? they sure as hell will not seek out fans, the kids H.S. coach or some other distant opinion.
So, since none of the kids have played games since the last evaluation, they use films of the kids games.
That is all they can do.

Recruiters will say whatever is necessary to entice a kid. No one has seen all the kids in person.
Running fast is not the sum total of being an outstanding WR.

JMO: IF J.A. truly believes L J; then I think (again: jmo) he would be a buck.

Rivals can see Ademilola dominate all they want. He simply has chose to do it at events that don't make them money. Mike Farrell and the crew at Rivals are not banned from attending events they don't sponsor as spectators, to better form an opinion of him, but we all know it doesn't work like that.

As for Larry Johnson and his opinion of Jayson... The Ohio State staff, led by Urban Meyer, has desperately tried to get the Ademilolas to visit. They badly want Jayson, they simply aren't in a position to offer Justin right now, but they understand it's a package deal. Clemson coming HARD, as is Alabama. This is among the most coveted players in the country right now. He has offers from everyone and they all want him. Let's not act like Jayson can't go to any school in the country right now by simply picking up the phone.

 

[chaseball]

Im sure this type of stuff goes on with every site in the industry .. but at the end of the day .. the services' reputation is everything. Their rankings accuracy is their brand's bread and butter. The more accurate their ratings/rankings are the more pull they'll get in the industry (e.g. more traffic, more references, more respect, more high profile recruits attending their camps, which all equals more dollars). I doubt a few snubs from some recruits is going to impact their rankings integrity/evaluations all that much.

Also, 247 Composite would be much more useful if Scout were omitted -- their recruiting content/coverage has been on steep decline as 247 & ESPN have taken more marketshare over the last decade or so. That site's recruiting coverage is way under funded relative to their competition these days.

 

[Irish Duck]

IIO, I have neither the time nor the inclination to watch video and/or look at offer lists. Do you mind if I just read what your analysis is? You are definitely much more knowledgeable than I am and I'm not being sarcastic. There are certain posters on this Board whose judgment I trust. You are one of the few.

 

[NIN Irish]

IIO, I have neither the time nor the inclination to watch video and/or look at offer lists. Do you mind if I just read what your analysis is? You are definitely much more knowledgeable than I am and I'm not being sarcastic. There are certain posters on this Board whose judgment I trust. You are one of the few.

Have you forgotten perse?

 

[Irish Duck]

Have you forgotten perse?

I've been trying to!

 

[IrishInOntario]

Im sure this type of stuff goes on with every site in the industry .. but at the end of the day .. the services' reputation is everything. Their rankings accuracy is their brand's bread and butter. The more accurate their ratings/rankings are the more pull they'll get in the industry (e.g. more traffic, more references, more respect, more high profile recruits attending their camps, which all equals more dollars). I doubt a few snubs from some recruits is going to impact their rankings integrity/evaluations all that much.

Also, 247 Composite would be much more useful if Scout were omitted -- their recruiting content/coverage has been on steep decline as 247 & ESPN have taken more marketshare over the last decade or so. That site's recruiting coverage is way under funded relative to their competition these days.

Chase,

If you've been following recruiting Rivals is getting smacked around by 247 / ESPN. The Opening Regionals and Finals are now the big time event. The Rivals 5 star challenge is an afterthought, comparatively. The key players that started Rivals and who are the brains behind it, now run 247... Rivals is showing extreme favoritism to many of the recruits that still favor their events over the best, most competitive events. They are trending the way of Scout I'm afraid.

 

[perseverare]

IIO

Rivals vs 247 top 25
have you compared the rankings? Which playets are common to both lists?
And those players that are on not in the 25 on the respective list, where do they fall on the other list.

You have put the opinion out there that Rivals may be losing credibility. Would the above substantiate or disagree with your contention?

 

[IrishInOntario]

IIO

Rivals vs 247 top 25
have you compared the rankings? Which playets are common to both lists?
And those players that are on not in the 25 on the respective list, where do they fall on the other list.

You have put the opinion out there that Rivals may be losing credibility. Would the above substantiate or disagree with your contention?

As soon as I have some time I will look at the entire top 250 (247 in their case) and let you know the differences. You're correct that additional evidence, via research, should be provided to substantiate my claim.

Not only should inclusion and exclusion be looked at, but also massive disparities in the rankings of players who are listed in both rankings. Although we would have to agree on what constitutes a substantial enough disparity to potentially suggest bias. For example, I think if a player is inside the top 100 of one ranking, but out of top maybe 175 of the other ranking, that would suggest a substantial enough disparity. What are your thoughts? I think it's important we also look at this factor given that you've long held the contention that the very top players are on average much better than the next group of players, and so on. I can live with that argument as a general rule (with the obvious exceptions that are relative to any rule). Your thoughts?

 

[perseverare]

IIO

I think the top 250 task might be daunting.
I know there are some significant disagree's between the rating services, because I have read TOS (247) posts discussing this or that player.

Yes, The elite 25-30 usually stand out and further the top 10-15 are usually the 'playmakers'.
I generally look at recruiting in terms of 'teams' and the concentration of where those playmakers are winding up. Looking at the top 6 teams over a lookback three year span will almost predict the teams that will vie for the playoffs. When you factor into recruiting that the power conferences will likely have their Champion a serious contender for playoffs, the notion of parity exists only outside the top 6-8 teams.
The good news is those six to eight teams are not fixed but are reflective of the recent recruiting classes and every few years there will be a surprise team that is a team recruiting in the say recent second tier group but has a SS or two carrying the team, like Cam or that FSU kid.

If you do that cross comparison, it will be interesting.

 

[Ara64]

I try to find four to six sites when compiling star power on a recruiting class. Life would be a lot easier if we got best of the best each year, but it seldom happens anymore. ND under Coach Kelly has simply gave too many KEY games away. Poor defense, bad special teams play, players not executing on key situations, and Coach Kelly's untimely brainfarts have made for too many long gameday Saturdays.

 

[echowaker]

Recruiting certainly has changed with the advent of the internet. Film is readily available now for just about everyone. Funny thing though is colleges still heavily rely on the old birddog's out there. Lots of guys still doing it, some as strictly a passion and some for cash or game tickets. It's a huge network that I doubt ever goes away.

 

[Tru2Irish]

I've been saying this for a while, but I think Rivals has surpassed ESPN as the most bias ranking outlet there is. Their "punishment" of players via rankings for participating in events that don't support their business, instead of those that do, has become embarrassing as it relates to them trying to maintain that hey are at all objective in their rankings (if that's even their position any longer).

I'll give you two great examples that relate to Notre Dame.

In the recent Rivals 250 update, neither Jayson Ademilola or Braden Lenzy were included. Both were previously ranked inside the top 250 and all Lenzy has done is impressed in everything he's done, while crushing his opposition in state track championships this spring. But because he's running track and participating in The Opening rather than supporting the Rivals 5 star Challenge, he has disappeared from the rankings, in favour of lesser players who are on board with Rivals.

The Jayson Ademilola story is even more ridiculous. This kid is currently the most sought after DT in the country. Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State are doing everything in their power to steal him from Notre Dame. Larry Johnson told his coach that he feels that he's the best DT in the country. Larry Johnson knows about DL coaching... Yet he's not a 250 player lol... Why, because he's off to The Opening?

Mike Farrell and the clowns at Rivals amuse me these days.

If you're wondering the point of ranting about a recruiting service that is clearly more interested in their profit then any kind of objectivity, it's this... Before you freak out about how many "elite" players ND isn't getting, consider how subjective rankings have become.

If you want a better idea of the type of player a kid may be....

1. Watch their film and understand their level of competition.

2. Look at their offer list. If they have 40 offers, from every relavent program in the country, they're probably pretty damn good.

3. Look at 247's Composite ranking which combines the rankings of all 4 major recruiting services. It's not fool proof, but it at least helps compensate for the economical politics that drive the business.

I sincerely hope every person drops MF as an important cog to football recruit ratings. He is a self-serving biased joke. I hope the Opening and other facets continue to strive while his rivals camps fail. He knows little about evaluation,only about amping up his stature.Do you notice that every 3 star that commits to Ohio St. Fla st or bama get a ranking boosts? He is so obvious about his bias.

 

[echowaker]

I sincerely hope every person drops MF as an important cog to football recruit ratings. He is a self-serving biased joke. I hope the Opening and other facets continue to strive while his rivals camps fail. He knows little about evaluation,only about amping up his stature.Do you notice that every 3 star that commits to Ohio St. Fla st or bama get a ranking boosts? He is so obvious about his bias.

Agreed. Makes Tom lemming in his day look credible and that ain t an easy thing to do.

 

[South Bender]

I sincerely hope every person drops MF as an important cog to football recruit ratings. He is a self-serving biased joke. I hope the Opening and other facets continue to strive while his rivals camps fail. He knows little about evaluation,only about amping up his stature.Do you notice that every 3 star that commits to Ohio St. Fla st or bama get a ranking boosts? He is so obvious about his bias.

When is the last time a 3 star signed with Alabama??

 

[Tru2Irish]

When is the last time a 3 star signed with Alabama??

They have recruited 3 stars who suddenly are upped to 4 stars immediately because it's Bama.Do you ever notice a lot of ND recruits dropping in ratings-Mike Farrell.

 

[perseverare]

^ well, history might be testamony that the ups/downs were correct.
Look at the fortunes of the two teams.

(that might not be the best argument)

 

[Bodizephax]

Recruiting certainly has changed with the advent of the internet. Film is readily available now for just about everyone. Funny thing though is colleges still heavily rely on the old birddog's out there. Lots of guys still doing it, some as strictly a passion and some for cash or game tickets. It's a huge network that I doubt ever goes away.

There is something to be said for seeing something live than seeing something on film. Even if it is just slight.

 

[Telx1]

When is the last time a 3 star signed with Alabama??

They have four 3 star recruits and one 2 star recruit in this year's class. Not suggesting their overall recruiting is anything less than elite compared to ours, but they do actively recruit three star guys they happen to like and value. I think we need to excel in our evaluations of three star guys to compliment the solid number of 4 star guys, and my impression is that our staff are going to impress in this regard. Time will tell.

 

[R1950]

Rivals can see Ademilola dominate all they want. He simply has chose to do it at events that don't make them money. Mike Farrell and the crew at Rivals are not banned from attending events they don't sponsor as spectators, to better form an opinion of him, but we all know it doesn't work like that.

As for Larry Johnson and his opinion of Jayson... The Ohio State staff, led by Urban Meyer, has desperately tried to get the Ademilolas to visit. They badly want Jayson, they simply aren't in a position to offer Justin right now, but they understand it's a package deal. Clemson coming HARD, as is Alabama. This is among the most coveted players in the country right now. He has offers from everyone and they all want him. Let's not act like Jayson can't go to any school in the country right now by simply picking up the phone.

For starters.the word "desperate" is the wrong word to use when referring to OSU recruiting these days. They already have a commitment from the #1 DT - ON ALL THE MAJOR RECRUITING SITES - Taron Vincent. I follow their recruiting closely and the names that have been popping up recently at 2018 DT prospects are PJ Mustipher, Matthew Jones, Rick Sandidge, and Aeneas Hawkins, although I believe Mustipher ends up at PSU when all is said and done and Jones ends up an OL. Add in the fact that the 2019 Ohio class will be one of the top 2 or 3 in Ohio history for DL with Z. Harrison, J. Briggs, S. Faucheux, and C Stover all in the early top 100, 247 composite ratings. Both Briggs and Faucheux are projected DTs in college.

And if the kid is a package deal, he can forget OSU. Their recruiting last year - highest 247 average /player ever - and this year, which will probably blow last year's away, could very well end up being the best 2-year run in CF history - surpassing even the Pete Carrol (USC) and Urban recruiting years years at Florida. They are slow-playing a ton of highly rated recruits right now while waiting on some of the supers that they're in on to make decisions.

My point: I'm sure that Ademilola is a fine prospect and could end up being a very solid CF player. I can say, however, that OSU has a few DTs rated higher on their board (after commit Vincent of course). Believe me when I tell you that OSU is not "desperate" - as you put it - for an Ademilola visit/commit. What a joke !

 

[perseverare]

^ been watching recruiting v closely and I've got to agree. As of now, tOSU looks to be this years recruiting champ, and USC will have a terrific class also. Bama, Clemson and FSU will also close very strong. I suppose someone might sneak into that group, but it would be a surprise.
Herman has UT returning to the elite group; add LSU, UGA (a bit behind st the moment) Mia. and UF and you might see the 9 of the top 10.

 

[57Patrick]

It will be interesting to see how the Max 25 rule change along with the early signing period affects some of these schools that have over signed in the past and waited to see who makes their grades etc. This year's recruiting, at the end of the day, may have a few wrinkles in it that we haven't seen in the past.

 

[echowaker]

It will be interesting to see how the Max 25 rule change along with the early signing period affects some of these schools that have over signed in the past and waited to see who makes their grades etc. This year's recruiting, at the end of the day, may have a few wrinkles in it that we haven't seen in the past.

I would have preferred the early signing period being much earlier.

 

[R1950]

^ been watching recruiting v closely and I've got to agree. As of now, tOSU looks to be this years recruiting champ, and USC will have a terrific class also. Bama, Clemson and FSU will also close very strong. I suppose someone might sneak into that group, but it would be a surprise.
Herman has UT returning to the elite group; add LSU, UGA (a bit behind st the moment) Mia. and UF and you might see the 9 of the top 10.

I think you just nailed the top 5 when all is said and done. Especially USC, which also looks to be on their way to a monster class. I also agree with your LSU and UT picks along with PSU, Miami, and ND in the top 10. But, a lot can change in the next few months. And let's be honest, ratings - especially in the top 10 - are very inter-changeable.

Do top recruiting classes guarantee championships ? Of course not or Alabama would have won every NC the last few years. They've won one of the last four NCs. What, for the most part they do guarantee is that the top recruiting teams like OSU, FSU and Alabama will be in the thick of championship talk almost every year. Player development is just as important and can't be overlooked. If top recruiting classes guaranteed success, Brady Hoke would still be at Michigan

 

[chaseball]

Recruiting is everything.

If your kids are bigger, stronger, faster, with better football instincts (this is what recruiting ratings are determining), with all else equal, your kids will win more often than not.

I would love to see a comprehensive study done on this very issue.

The best study would probably look at the evaluation rating (we could even use composite projections at 24/7) of each recruit on a roster (1 through 85), NOT the star rating, but the actual evaluation rating of each player on each roster, and then look at the point differential for each program's roster over the course of the last 5 seasons vs FBS opponents.

I know for a fact w/o any doubt (would put my mortgage on it) ... their would be a near perfect symmetrical relationship between a program's roster rating and their point differential. Again, would need a 5-season sample to eliminate noise from the data.

e.g. the higher the aggregate roster rating, the higher the point differential. the lower the aggregate roster rating, the lower the point differential.

I need to spend a weekend doing this; i can even just use the top ~20 programs from the last 5 years.

 

[perseverare]

^ i tracked (on excel) a 12 year record of class rankings and then highlighted the playoff (or NC game participants) and the subsequent NC. It gave a qwik visual and If you don't think recruiting is relevant to performance: try that.