Path to Playoffs

[kellys heroes 35]

Given that ND will be ranked in the top 8 this week the scenario for ND getting in doesn't seem so unlikely to me

IF ND wins out

OSU - Mich St ND jumps loser goes to #7
Baylor - TCU - ND jumps loser goes to # 6
Bama beats LSU ND jumps to #5


Any of the above mentioned winners losing another game or losing in the conference championship game puts ND in the playoffs .

I know Beat Temple . First things first , control what you can control .

 

[nwregionite]

just win out. Strength of Sched is increasing weekly as Clemson Pitt Temple and Stanford have all shown to be quality teams. USC's win over Utah helps a ton too.

So win out...and hope Miss st with two losses can now win out and win the SEC.

if that happens either the committee takes a two loss team after a conf champ.

or the 1 loss Irish.

 

[LGPazu]

Given that ND will be ranked in the top 8 this week the scenario for ND getting in doesn't seem so unlikely to me

IF ND wins out

OSU - Mich St ND jumps loser goes to #7
Baylor - TCU - ND jumps loser goes to # 6
Bama beats LSU ND jumps to #5


Any of the above mentioned winners losing another game or losing in the conference championship game puts ND in the playoffs .

I know Beat Temple . First things first , control what you can control .

We are not ranked #8 so your hypothetical is flawed as usual

 

[beachcardinal]

Given that ND will be ranked in the top 8 this week the scenario for ND getting in doesn't seem so unlikely to me

IF ND wins out

OSU - Mich St ND jumps loser goes to #7
Baylor - TCU - ND jumps loser goes to # 6
Bama beats LSU ND jumps to #5


Any of the above mentioned winners losing another game or losing in the conference championship game puts ND in the playoffs .

I know Beat Temple . First things first , control what you can control .

Miss State winning the SEC would really help. Might keep an SEC team out of the playoffs.

 

[mirer03]

I still say best case scenario is lsu winning out eliminating Alabama. OSU winning out eliminating msu. Ou and Texas eliminating tcu and Baylor. easier to justify leaving out pac 12 and big 12 then acc, big 10, and sec this year.

 

[NDEwing18]

Given that ND will be ranked in the top 8 this week the scenario for ND getting in doesn't seem so unlikely to me

IF ND wins out

OSU - Mich St ND jumps loser goes to #7
Baylor - TCU - ND jumps loser goes to # 6
Bama beats LSU ND jumps to #5


Any of the above mentioned winners losing another game or losing in the conference championship game puts ND in the playoffs .

I know Beat Temple . First things first , control what you can control .

You're assuming that ND will just methodically move past teams that lose later in the season. There's no reason to believe that the committee reacts in that way. It's possible that a previously undefeated team loses a game, but the committee still believes that such team's overall body of work is better than Notre Dame's.

 

[Epictitus]

SOS continues to move up and will only go higher. 11-1 and the Irish are in. Just win!

 

[LGPazu]

You're assuming that ND will just methodically move past teams that lose later in the season. There's no reason to believe that the committee reacts in that way. It's possible that a previously undefeated team loses a game, but the committee still believes that such team's overall body of work is better than Notre Dame's.

Exactly. PLus, Iowa and Ok State are undefeated and can easily leapfrog us.

 

[beachcardinal]

SOS continues to move up and will only go higher. 11-1 and the Irish are in. Just win!

Not sure about that. Any Utah or SC loss hurts the Irish and we will lose at least one more and probably finish unranked. You need to look at how many of the teams you beat are ranked at the end of the season. If it is only one or one and a weak two, you won't make it. You are cheering for SC, Utah. Clemson and Stanford until season's end.

 

[Chitownrealist]

Exactly. PLus, Iowa and Ok State are undefeated and can easily leapfrog us.

OK St's best win is over Texas by 3. They will likely lose 4 of their next 5 against TT, TCU, IA St, Baylor and Oklahoma. Would be great if they could 1 of the 3 against TCU, Baylor and/or OK, but I don't see it happening.

Iowa - will not lose until the BN Championship game and then they should lose that decisively.

I think it will be very hard for us to make the top 4. We can displace 1 conference champ (Pac 10), but knocking out 2 will require a number of weekends like this last one where other games go the right way. Not raining on any parades here, just pointing out the obvious. Just keep winning.

 

[beachcardinal]

OK St's best win is over Texas by 3. They will likely lose 4 of their next 5 against TT, TCU, IA St, Baylor and Oklahoma. Would be great if they could 1 of the 3 against TCU, Baylor and/or OK, but I don't see it happening.

Iowa - will not lose until the BN Championship game and then they should lose that decisively.

I think it will be very hard for us to make the top 4. We can displace 1 conference champ (Pac 10), but knocking out 2 will require a number of weekends like this last one where other games go the right way. Not raining on any parades here, just pointing out the obvious. Just keep winning.

This. Not a clear path yet, but a few more weekends like this one and you guys are in. Need some breaks, but possible

 

[SiberianKnightmare]

The CFP committee rankings haven't come out yet. It's literally impossible to know what has to happen for ND to get in IF they win out.

 

[NDEwing18]

The CFP committee rankings haven't come out yet. It's literally impossible to know what has to happen for ND to get in IF they win out.

Correct - and even once they are out, it will be impossible to determine what exactly needs to happen. Remember that TCU was ahead of Baylor until the last week of the season, if I'm correct, last year. ND could be in the top 4 of the initial standings, win out, and still be left out.

 

[LGPazu]

Correct - and even once they are out, it will be impossible to determine what exactly needs to happen. Remember that TCU was ahead of Baylor until the last week of the season, if I'm correct, last year. ND could be in the top 4 of the initial standings, win out, and still be left out.

Yes. This. We need to know where we stand first. However, last year, we saw some deserving teams left at the alter.

My prediction:

OSU or MSU
Alabama or LSU
Baylor or TCU
Clemson

 

[echowaker]

Exactly. PLus, Iowa and Ok State are undefeated and can easily leapfrog us.

you really think that many teams will be undefeated ? how often has that happened ? be honest for once. you're hoping nd doesn't succeed because of your dislike for the head coach.

 

[echowaker]

You're assuming that ND will just methodically move past teams that lose later in the season. There's no reason to believe that the committee reacts in that way. It's possible that a previously undefeated team loses a game, but the committee still believes that such team's overall body of work is better than Notre Dame's.

can't agree. if nd runs the table a previously undefeated who loses late will not stay ahead of them. its never worked that way.

 

[echowaker]

The CFP committee rankings haven't come out yet. It's literally impossible to know what has to happen for ND to get in IF they win out.

that's the first step. until then it's all speculation. if nd would have beaten Clemson and then lost to Stanford they would have had no chance. the current scenario gives them a fair shot if they win out.

 

[BigFellaFan]

^^^^. This is true!

 

[NDEwing18]

can't agree. if nd runs the table a previously undefeated who loses late will not stay ahead of them. its never worked that way.

The committee's only been in existence for one year. It doesn't really matter whether anything has "worked that way" in the past or not.

Frankly, the idea that you should get punished more for losing later in the season was always a stupid thing in my opinion. We have no reason to believe that the committee views that as an issue.

LSU is ranked ahead of us and is undefeated. If they lose at some point during the season (and thus after Notre Dame), but still win the SEC with a 12-1 record, they will go to the playoff instead of Notre Dame.

 

[echowaker]

The committee's only been in existence for one year. It doesn't really matter whether anything has "worked that way" in the past or not.

Frankly, the idea that you should get punished more for losing later in the season was always a stupid thing in my opinion. We have no reason to believe that the committee views that as an issue.

LSU is ranked ahead of us and is undefeated. If they lose at some point during the season (and thus after Notre Dame), but still win the SEC with a 12-1 record, they will go to the playoff instead of Notre Dame.

they obviously do. think if ohio st suffers they're only loss last year in November they get in ?

 

[ThunderStorm21]

We just need to control what we can control and win out. With how crazy this season already has been, it is so difficult to see how all the games are going to play out. There is not one dominant team out there and the parity is staggering. Makes for an exciting finish. Beat Temple!

 

[88ND]

The path since opening day has, was, and will continue to be that game against the cardinal end of the year.
Had ND been undefeated a loss to stanford that late would put them out....with no chance to redeem itself with zero games remaning.

So ND with no loss or one loss this playoff invite hinges on the stanford game. Potentially for both teams.

The golden scenario would be to beat stanford and then stanford to obliterate its opponent in the pac 12 title game. That would really cement ND into the playoff.

 

[NDEwing18]

they obviously do. think if ohio st suffers they're only loss last year in November they get in ?

I don't have a reason to believe they wouldn't have been in. Since the committee is in its second year of existence, I think it's folly to assume that the committee is going to view things the same lazy way that some sportswriters and coaches have in the past.

Do you really think a 12-1 LSU team is going to be ranked behind an 11-1 Notre Dame team in the committee's final rankings? I don't.

 

[LGPazu]

I don't have a reason to believe they wouldn't have been in. Since the committee is in its second year of existence, I think it's folly to assume that the committee is going to view things the same lazy way that some sportswriters and coaches have in the past.

Do you really think a 12-1 LSU team is going to be ranked behind an 11-1 Notre Dame team in the committee's final rankings? I don't.

Yes. Echo does not get this.

 

[Pennick4]

Baylor just ruled their QB out for the rest of the year.

 

[LGPazu]

Baylor just ruled their QB out for the rest of the year.

Backup may be better

 

[Epictitus]

Top five teams often start a player when the back up is better!!!!!

Yes, you are stupid!

 

[LGPazu]

Top five teams often start a player when the back up is better!!!!!

Yes, you are stupid!

Do some research and look up the player....it will educate you. He has expereince and a higher QB rating than the starter. Does not mean he will perform better over the long haul but he is no slouch.

 

[Nocalirish]

It would take 4 undefeated power 5 conf teams to keep a one loss ND out of a playoff. That means Clem, LSU, OHst and either TCU or Baylor go undefeated. ND's SOC even puts them in over an undefeated Iowa. TCB and ND is in.

 

[LGPazu]

Why do you people keep on dwelling on undefeated seasons. For example, LSU plays away to Bama. If LSU loses a close game, there is still a chance LSU in ranked higher than ND. If BAMA wins, they are in the playoffs. I replaces the other.

 

[NDEwing18]

It would take 4 undefeated power 5 conf teams to keep a one loss ND out of a playoff. That means Clem, LSU, OHst and either TCU or Baylor go undefeated. ND's SOC even puts them in over an undefeated Iowa. TCB and ND is in.

This is overly simplistic thinking.

 

[mirer03]

if bama loses they are out. If bama wins they still are in a tie with Ole miss in SEC west and ole miss owns the tie breaker. Bama without an extra game very well may be behind Notre Dame if Clemson wins out. A loss to Ole Miss vs a loss to undefeated and number two Clemson in a monsoon. Bama will need that extra game. two sec teams means two conferences left out and a 1 loss ND team when its a down year for the SEC....the playoffs would lose all credibility.

 

[onlyonenow]

One thing is starting to get clear - the SEC worship is beginning to dissipate if slowly.

Last year the committee also was not enraptured by the SEC and I think that will continue

 

[Nocalirish]

This is overly simplistic thinking.

There is nothing simple about it except your response. It is realistic thinking.

 

[mokpra37]

if bama loses they are out. If bama wins they still are in a tie with Ole miss in SEC west and ole miss owns the tie breaker. Bama without an extra game very well may be behind Notre Dame if Clemson wins out. A loss to Ole Miss vs a loss to undefeated and number two Clemson in a monsoon. Bama will need that extra game. two sec teams means two conferences left out and a 1 loss ND team when its a down year for the SEC....the playoffs would lose all credibility.

Good points mirer03.

 

[echowaker]

Do some research and look up the player....it will educate you. He has expereince and a higher QB rating than the starter. Does not mean he will perform better over the long haul but he is no slouch.

he's a freshman. what experience do you speak of ? garbage time ?

 

[NDEwing18]

There is nothing simple about it except your response. It is realistic thinking.

Not at all. If the Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC all have undefeated teams, but the SEC champion is 12-1, your conclusion is that ND would be in the playoff before the 12-1 SEC champion. This is unrealistic and simplistic thinking.

 

[sshulk]

Anything can happen - IU played OSU to the last snap, TCU won on a prayer vs TT, Ole Miss stunned Bama - so of course we need to win out, and will still need the benefit of an upset or two and the favorable view of the committee

Likely scenario that Big and SEC get spots. Clemson is a lock unless they lose. Big 12 is dicey and we get nod over Pac 12 by beating Stanford.

good to still be in the discussion. We are sitting more favorable than Ohio State was this time one year ago

 

[kellys heroes 35]

you really think that many teams will be undefeated ? how often has that happened ? be honest for once. you're hoping nd doesn't succeed because of your dislike for the head coach.

Echo - who are you referring to in your comment - ? ND Ewing ?

 

[kellys heroes 35]

You're assuming that ND will just methodically move past teams that lose later in the season. There's no reason to believe that the committee reacts in that way. It's possible that a previously undefeated team loses a game, but the committee still believes that such team's overall body of work is better than Notre Dame's.

I'm not assuming anything just hoping along with other real ND fans that ND gets in