American manufacturing growth started outpacing the rest of the world's growth at the end of last year — for the first time in recent memory.
OT Stock Market
- Thread starter deadirishpoet
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Keep reading that CNN handbook, they have you on the hook
You know enlistment are down because of the president
And no I don't know most private sector jobs don't make anything but I do know 100% of government jobs don't make anything
Here are the facts.
Gas went from $2.21/gal to almost $5/gal and is hovering around $3.90/gal
Eggs, milk, bread, meat are up 50%. The common denominator? The cost to transport things.
And for the electric car crowd. It’s a noble effort. But we are 25 years away from infrastructure that can support electric cars being anything more than vehicles for around town (and that is a start, don’t get me wrong). BTW, the cost of making those electric arms are about 3.7 years equivalent of fossil burning cars in terms of car on footprint. It’s a 100 year marathon, not a one year miracle. And right now the cost of living is up due to Joe’s policies and then Russia and Iran now using their swelled coffers from oil money to fund wars in Ukraine and Gaza.
Typical libs have the gun to their head and are asking where the smoke is coming from
Hope so, Id believe in all hands on deck. EV's, solar, wind, hydro, gas, nat gas. Nothing would please me more than to export this tech to the world & bankrupt the Saudi's, Russia and China in the process. Im not a big fan of globalist I want the US to win.
We actually were energy independent and servicing the world before our current president
1. Covid drove gas prices down. Precovid gas was around 3$ sometimes around 3.20 now Gas is 3.49 where I live, eggs & milk went back down to normal Gal of milk 2.88. 18 Eggs was under 3$ 24 pack 3.49. And I just went to Meijers today and got those items so its a current price.
You mean the green energy that uses actual slaves and child labor to mine?
If we REALLY wanted clean energy we would go nuclear
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President biden drove gas prices up
Id like to see more nuke plants as well problem is the US pop has bigtime NIMBY when it comes to that & storage becomes an issue. As for the mines id like to see us ease the smelting restrictions on rare earth materials in the US. As for child labor if we are gonna talk about that then add shoes, diamonds, clothes, & ag. to you list of things that leave the poor open to exploitation.
These numbers are incorrect across the US. So not sure where you are living. No way eggs and milk are back to normal. The CPI is up 39% since Jan 2021. You sound like a CNN host.
And you should revisit the gas prices, your memory is flawed. Covid reduced gas prices in Q1/Q2 2020. By January 2021, average gas price was steady at $2.21/gal. And a whole bunch of people were and are now working remotely, keeping supply up and price down.
Then Joe stopped the fracking that he said he would never do; halted drilling in Alaska and Gulf of Mexico; and gummed up the works in permitting . So oil futures took off, and all prices went up. That is why prices went up. Not sure what to share otherwise. Pretty simple relationship.
Why was it that Joe dipped into the strategic reserves if all was okay???
Lol
I just bought eggs & milk today at meijers. It was on my honeydo list. Chicken still sky high, pork back to normal but beef is ridic. I went in on a quarter cow at the begining of summer and that should last my family of 5 another 2-3 months. Although the steaks are almost gone, but plenty of roast & ground beef.
Average gas price in 2019 was $2.33-$2.63/ gal.
Good call on buying the cow. Most Americans can’t do that way
Average gas price in Dec 2019 was $2.45/gal
The CPI is NOT up 39% since January 2021. It is up roughly 18%.
261.582 in January 2021. 307.789 in September 2023 (most recent figure). Here is the chart:
chart
Much of the huge up tick in inflation was due to Covid messing up world-wide supply chains. And as others have noted, inflation infecting almost every country was not caused by actions of the United States.
Your argument might be stronger if you didn't resort to making up numbers.
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Libs? Showing once again just how naive one can be. Libs; spoken like a true child; Perhaps it's time for you to grow up a bit. As for the $2.21 price, you might recall we were in a pandemic, and nobody was driving. It was in all the papers, guess you missed it. Definitely childish
I was skeptical but glad I was wrong. It was a great investment. Only problem is i always forget to take it out of the deep freezer & while I have a great microwave I still think it loses flavor as just letting it defrost in a bowl.
Its your ignorance not mine
IU.S. energy production in 2019 was higher than U.S. energy consumption for the first time in 62 years. Thus, the U.S. attained the long-held goal of “energy independence" 2019, U.S. crude oil and natural gas plant liquids production reached 31.8 quads, and natural gas production reached 34.9 quads—record highs for both industries in the United States, surpassing their previous highs reached in 2018. U.S. renewable energy production remained fairly constant between 2018 and 2019, growing by just 0.1 quad, as 2019 was a low water year from hydroelectric power. In contrast, U.S. coal production declined by 1.1 quads in 2019 to 14.3 quads—its lowest value since 1974. U.S. nuclear electric power production remained steady at about 8 quads for the past two decades.
Ok, in the spirit of community...and to joust with ND alumni 
...I'm a pretty good investor. I've 30+ years as an investor and a software engineer with applied experience in finance. I've programmed more trading systems, analytics, forecasting, risk, and portfolio optimization algorithms than I can count.
Ok, for all my bluster, I've distilled investing down to the following guidance.
1) Dollar Cost Average in an Age Appropriate Mix Low Cost Funds (stock, bond, money, REIT):
The S&P500 or its equivalents have produced 9% CAGR in almost any 20 year horizon since 1871. By rule of 72, that doubles every 8 years, so start young. This is a timeless fire and forget matter of behavior over intellect.
2) Adapt and Apply Value Investing in Quality Individual Stocks:
Do this ONLY if you have the time, patience, discipline, and enjoyment. Learn how to price an instrument: cheap, fair value, expensive. Just like a house, buy cheap. Hold until price reverts to the norm.
This takes evaluating PE especially, but also PS, PB, PEG, and ROIC. If you don't know these terms, well, you shouldn't be doing this. The values here signal if something might be worth buying, holding, or selling. If you see buy signal, meaning a PE and price cheaper than N year averages...evaluate cash flow, balance sheets, and income.
Study Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett here. Again, adapt what they teach for current market dynamics, although the basic principles won't change.
3) Quality Growth Chasing:
Companies use GAAP reporting which often show no profit and deeper debt. No PE. However such companies are growing fast, seizing market share. Think SalesForce, Nvidia, and such. Quality companies that show better on non-GAAP reporting...but be careful, as most companies fail in this category.
4) The Rest:
You'll hear all kinds of faster trading methods. Put and Call options. IPOs. The vast majority of these trades fail. You will have a hard time beating the algorithms in short term trading...trust me, given the volume of trades, the algos often can detect retail vs AI traders, acting accordingly.
The only effective short term trading, which I've programmed, are high frequency trading algorithms. But we the retailer can't do this. Besides, it's front running...relying on a 1 second or so advantage in info. Hence sub-second trading.
The 3 methods I listed, in order of risk, work. Anything beyond this takes a lot of skill, time, and still winds up a loser. I maintain a Seeking Alpha account with a legacy blog: My MSFT Value Investment.
Ping me there if you are interested in collaboration. I don't sell anything. I'm merely trying to make money...always seeking alpha.
...I'm a pretty good investor. I've 30+ years as an investor and a software engineer with applied experience in finance. I've programmed more trading systems, analytics, forecasting, risk, and portfolio optimization algorithms than I can count.Ok, for all my bluster, I've distilled investing down to the following guidance.
1) Dollar Cost Average in an Age Appropriate Mix Low Cost Funds (stock, bond, money, REIT):
The S&P500 or its equivalents have produced 9% CAGR in almost any 20 year horizon since 1871. By rule of 72, that doubles every 8 years, so start young. This is a timeless fire and forget matter of behavior over intellect.
2) Adapt and Apply Value Investing in Quality Individual Stocks:
Do this ONLY if you have the time, patience, discipline, and enjoyment. Learn how to price an instrument: cheap, fair value, expensive. Just like a house, buy cheap. Hold until price reverts to the norm.
This takes evaluating PE especially, but also PS, PB, PEG, and ROIC. If you don't know these terms, well, you shouldn't be doing this. The values here signal if something might be worth buying, holding, or selling. If you see buy signal, meaning a PE and price cheaper than N year averages...evaluate cash flow, balance sheets, and income.
Study Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett here. Again, adapt what they teach for current market dynamics, although the basic principles won't change.
3) Quality Growth Chasing:
Companies use GAAP reporting which often show no profit and deeper debt. No PE. However such companies are growing fast, seizing market share. Think SalesForce, Nvidia, and such. Quality companies that show better on non-GAAP reporting...but be careful, as most companies fail in this category.
4) The Rest:
You'll hear all kinds of faster trading methods. Put and Call options. IPOs. The vast majority of these trades fail. You will have a hard time beating the algorithms in short term trading...trust me, given the volume of trades, the algos often can detect retail vs AI traders, acting accordingly.
The only effective short term trading, which I've programmed, are high frequency trading algorithms. But we the retailer can't do this. Besides, it's front running...relying on a 1 second or so advantage in info. Hence sub-second trading.
The 3 methods I listed, in order of risk, work. Anything beyond this takes a lot of skill, time, and still winds up a loser. I maintain a Seeking Alpha account with a legacy blog: My MSFT Value Investment.
Ping me there if you are interested in collaboration. I don't sell anything. I'm merely trying to make money...always seeking alpha.
Nothing back to normal in NYC. First time homebuyers really feeling the pinch. Rates on a 30 year over 7.5? Good for CD's and savers. Funny thing up here is watching Eric Adams pleading for immigrants to stop coming. Funny when it was Texas's problem then NYC was a sanctuary city. Now when NYC is providing 3 hots & a cot then it's Mi casa aint tu casa.
I have a 457 plan ( 401K) for NYC workers. Thought on letting the money ride on small caps and equity index funds?Ok, in the spirit of community...and to joust with ND alumni
Ok, for all my bluster, I've distilled investing down to the following guidance.
1) Dollar Cost Average in an Age Appropriate Mix Low Cost Funds (stock, bond, money, REIT):
The S&P500 or its equivalents have produced 9% CAGR in almost any 20 year horizon since 1871. By rule of 72, that doubles every 8 years, so start young. This is a timeless fire and forget matter of behavior over intellect.
2) Adapt and Apply Value Investing in Quality Individual Stocks:
Do this ONLY if you have the time, patience, discipline, and enjoyment. Learn how to price an instrument: cheap, fair value, expensive. Just like a house, buy cheap. Hold until price reverts to the norm.
This takes evaluating PE especially, but also PS, PB, PEG, and ROIC. If you don't know these terms, well, you shouldn't be doing this. The values here signal if something might be worth buying, holding, or selling. If you see buy signal, meaning a PE and price cheaper than N year averages...evaluate cash flow, balance sheets, and income.
Study Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett here. Again, adapt what they teach for current market dynamics, although the basic principles won't change.
3) Quality Growth Chasing:
Companies use GAAP reporting which often show no profit and deeper debt. No PE. However such companies are growing fast, seizing market share. Think SalesForce, Nvidia, and such. Quality companies that show better on non-GAAP reporting...but be careful, as most companies fail in this category.
4) The Rest:
You'll hear all kinds of faster trading methods. Put and Call options. IPOs. The vast majority of these trades fail. You will have a hard time beating the algorithms in short term trading...trust me, given the volume of trades, the algos often can detect retail vs AI traders, acting accordingly.
The only effective short term trading, which I've programmed, are high frequency trading algorithms. But we the retailer can't do this. Besides, it's front running...relying on a 1 second or so advantage in info. Hence sub-second trading.
The 3 methods I listed, in order of risk, work. Anything beyond this takes a lot of skill, time, and still winds up a loser. I maintain a Seeking Alpha account with a legacy blog: My MSFT Value Investment.
Ping me there if you are interested in collaboration. I don't sell anything. I'm merely trying to make money...always seeking alpha.
Let it ride but consider 2 things:
1) Your time window and risk profile relative to that.
2) Keep dollar cost averaging in.
As to point 1, recall what I said about the S&P500 or equivalents getting 9% in any 20 year horizon. If you only have 5 years to retire, well, you probably can't wait 15 years if the market crashes. There are cycles within those 20 years.
The closer you are to retirement, the higher your ratio of money market, bond, and conservative type funds. At least for shorter term money. Longer term money can be invested with a 15-20 year window, as you will probably live into your 80s.
BTW: this is a very cool calculator for the S&P500 historically. Put in any N year period, especially 20. It is remarkable how the US economy produces consistent CAGR...like the Fibonacci sequence in nature. It works until disproven.
Money Chimps
@HarlemIrish
One more thing: make sure you are in cheap and actively managed funds. Passive index funds are the best, costing the least, routinely outperforming the actively managed higher cost funds.
Those extra costs wind up eating into your returns.
All the best!
One more thing: make sure you are in cheap and actively managed funds. Passive index funds are the best, costing the least, routinely outperforming the actively managed higher cost funds.
Those extra costs wind up eating into your returns.
All the best!
Since public companies have to use GAAP for their financial statements (I could be wrong)Ok, in the spirit of community...and to joust with ND alumni
Ok, for all my bluster, I've distilled investing down to the following guidance.
1) Dollar Cost Average in an Age Appropriate Mix Low Cost Funds (stock, bond, money, REIT):
The S&P500 or its equivalents have produced 9% CAGR in almost any 20 year horizon since 1871. By rule of 72, that doubles every 8 years, so start young. This is a timeless fire and forget matter of behavior over intellect.
2) Adapt and Apply Value Investing in Quality Individual Stocks:
Do this ONLY if you have the time, patience, discipline, and enjoyment. Learn how to price an instrument: cheap, fair value, expensive. Just like a house, buy cheap. Hold until price reverts to the norm.
This takes evaluating PE especially, but also PS, PB, PEG, and ROIC. If you don't know these terms, well, you shouldn't be doing this. The values here signal if something might be worth buying, holding, or selling. If you see buy signal, meaning a PE and price cheaper than N year averages...evaluate cash flow, balance sheets, and income.
Study Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett here. Again, adapt what they teach for current market dynamics, although the basic principles won't change.
3) Quality Growth Chasing:
Companies use GAAP reporting which often show no profit and deeper debt. No PE. However such companies are growing fast, seizing market share. Think SalesForce, Nvidia, and such. Quality companies that show better on non-GAAP reporting...but be careful, as most companies fail in this category.
4) The Rest:
You'll hear all kinds of faster trading methods. Put and Call options. IPOs. The vast majority of these trades fail. You will have a hard time beating the algorithms in short term trading...trust me, given the volume of trades, the algos often can detect retail vs AI traders, acting accordingly.
The only effective short term trading, which I've programmed, are high frequency trading algorithms. But we the retailer can't do this. Besides, it's front running...relying on a 1 second or so advantage in info. Hence sub-second trading.
The 3 methods I listed, in order of risk, work. Anything beyond this takes a lot of skill, time, and still winds up a loser. I maintain a Seeking Alpha account with a legacy blog: My MSFT Value Investment.
Ping me there if you are interested in collaboration. I don't sell anything. I'm merely trying to make money...always seeking alpha.
Is Financial Reporting Standards a good non GAAP?
Bank earnings come out today but I think tbe housing market hurt them across the board (my speculation), but if tbd Fed isn't going to raise rates (short term)that should help banks so that make it hard for me to see which way the market moves today
Thank you in advance
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7.5% is
7.5% is a joke. It was 12% in 1984 when I bought my first house. I love all the bitching about 7.5%, ridiculous
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Dude. Don't defrost your meat in the microwave, especially a steak from a qtr cow. Keep in airtight ziploc with no air and submerge under warm water, about 20 - 30 minutes later you're good to go. Prep everything else while that's happening.
I look into specific metrics that are considered non-GAAP. These include EBIT and EBITDA. As always, I look into published income, balance sheet, and cash flow...and price to sales.
I use both GAAP and non-GAAP. I put a premium on the latter when it is a young SalesForce, which looks bad under GAAP. No PE typically...but sales and revenue are rising dramatically to seize market share.
Hope that helps.
As to the broader market, the S&P500PE is 24 compared to an average of 15. Usually the average is correlated to interest rates between 4% - 6%, which we are now actually normalizing to, given the need to fight inflation yet inflate a bit out of a 134% debt:gdp ratio. This tells me the market is expensive overall.
I'm defensive. Dollar cost averaging with 401ks and 529 funds. But only buying individual stocks that are classic value plays. Cheap. Like Tyson. Not much value right now.
BTW: we night normalize to a 15 S&P500 PE more gracefully. Earning and GDO might rise faster, compressing PE...a higher E rather than lower P. Why? Because foreign capital still flows into the USA. Buying our t-bills losing to inflation as well as individual instruments...SAFE HAVEN, the USA keeps getting geographically and virtually lucky.
As an aside, the only bad thing is US income and wealth is increasingly going to foreigners. It doesn't have to be that way...as many Americans can and do save and invest into all this production. The ones how don't, stranded in low income jobs due to globalism and automation are in some trouble...as we need a true jobs program as well as financial education on all this stuff we are discussing.
I find it AMAZING how many Americans don't understand personal finance.
My take on real estate is also simple. Appraise a house as cheap, fair value, or expensive. Compare to median prices in your neighborhood.
Most importantly, assess if such prices are sustainable. A healthy market is one where house price is between 3x - 4x of income. In San Francisco, this means a dual tech income of $300k - $450k sustains a median price of $1.3M.
In 2008, we saw such ratios go 7x - 8x!!!
I also buy with a 25% down payment, avoiding PMI. Make sure mortgage is 1/3 - 1/4 take home pay. And I expect 5 years of price volatility. Before the price stabilizes > than purchase price...with that 25% down typically keeping me in positive equity.
Just my 2 cents on real estate.
On Nov 2 2020 gas was $1.71 here
IT is now $4.09
Bidennomics at its best
IT is now $4.09
Bidennomics at its best
This argument that covid drove gas prices down is so freaking false and a tired leftist talking point. My God the left never ceases to amaze me, they would literally go broke defending their overlords, it's crazy....
Very helpful and your last statement is so true.
I come from a large family ...12 brothers and sisters.....so my parents were always saving and installed that in us. I thought that was the normal till I seen how others were creating (not creating) their own wealth
I put aside partisanship and focus on the numbers. Yes, we are in deep debt. A 134% debt:gdp ratio. The highest since WWII...but we are good for the money, hence my earlier post on USA t-bills and individual instruments selling well.
The world is effectively underwriting and eating USA debt. Letting us inflate our way out of it a bit. They'd rather have access to a 20% global GDP economy and that 9% CAGR of the S&P500.
The question remains one of distribution of income and wealth, which is what matters to the ordinary American. You will get a better salary with a STEM degree or a Dirty Job. It doesn't help to have massive student debt with a degree of marginal utility here.
Cheaper well educated mobile labor, offshoring, even on-shoring with H1Bs, and AI fill the gap. But with an effective jobs program, the government, academia, and captains of industry can align educational and career policies with higher end labor availability...as we have plenty of jobs.
A certain % have to take lower skill jobs. We should have some low end manufacturing for this. A spartan social safety net, charity...and stewardship teaching personal finance and life management.
Back to full circle...save and invest and reap 9% CAGR.
Call it whatever you like. Its all the same shit.( green environmental wasted money). They name it these things realizing that stupid people will believe its an infrastructure bill when in reality its green garbage, all it did was raise inflation. Did you get your economics degree from Boston U like your idol AOC. You both need to go back to school or at least read a book on economics.
The green shit is nothing but a Dem slush fund and they move the goal post on it yearly, yet their sheep keep falling for it...
2008??????
The money robbing congress then squeezed in that bullsht PMI while they bailed banks out after forcing bank to give loans to people who can't afford their purchase
This has become a combustible topic in the USA Today. So many claim they can't save for structural reasons...but I see the majority overspend, refusing frugality...then becoming angry at those who sacrificed and saved to build financial security to enjoy more later.
I ruthlessly saved through HS and college. I wasn't a miser but tempered my spending. Heck, I know many who SPLURGED on college football...kits, trips, tailgates, only to later have trouble.
I love my ND Fighting Irish...but won't break the bank on them of the Croatia NT soccer team I also love. Family 1st. Besides, the athletes laugh their way to the bank...they want some of my money? They better win!
I've got some clarity here too.
2008 was a perfect storm concocted by government, Wall Street, ratings agencies, the Fed, and, yes, Main Street.
Bush and Greenspan colluded to keep rates low after dot com. Previously Clinton repealed Glass Steagall and pressured banks to lower lending standards. So you had a flood of cheap money, easy lending, and suddenly hi risk instruments on commercial bank books. Main Street took the money and ran! Ratings agencies failed to detect toxic derivatives on books.
I remember being outbid by people with no money. Hub caps dangling off their tires. I had some money and had to protect it, whereas they with no risk could afford bankruptcy. Our society betrayed savers.
So 2008 happened. But ironically more money had to be printed, yes a bailout. Bernanke did his PhD on the Great Depression and avoided collapsing the banking system, too big to fail. And many banks actually paid the money back. Bush Jr and Obama had no choice but to encourage the Fed with more stimulus...ironically, much of it wasn't lent out, staying on bank books as reserves.
Icing on the cake: COVID!!! Even more money was printed than in 2008! It was actually given out, hence inflation and the 134% debt:gdp ratio.
So here we are. Paying the piper. Foreigners acquire more of our assets underwriting our debt. They're now buying the best ND stadium tickets!
We need to pare down the debt:gdp ratio while getting Americans into higher end work to addressed skewing distribution of income and wealth. Yes, you better believe I follow all this...SEEKING ALPHA, as I like to make a buck.
I spent 25 yrs in the USMC not alot of money making there. When I was state side I'd work a part time jobThis has become a combustible topic in the USA Today. So many claim they can't save for structural reasons...but I see the majority overspend, refusing frugality...then becoming angry at those who sacrificed and saved to build financial security to enjoy more later.
I ruthlessly saved through HS and college. I wasn't a miser but tempered my spending. Heck, I know many who SPLURGED on college football...kits, trips, tailgates, only to later have trouble.
I love my ND Fighting Irish...but won't break the bank on them of the Croatia NT soccer team I also love. Family 1st. Besides, the athletes laugh their way to the bank...they want some of my money? They better win!
I put money into an IRA every pay period.....its a discipline I can thank my parents for
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