Notre Dame #9 in Bill Connelly's final SP+ projections for 2024

[chaseball]

"As always: SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren't intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date.

These are based on three primary factors: returning production (final rankings for which you can find at the bottom of this piece), recent recruiting and recent history. How good have you been recently? Whom do you have coming back? How good are the players replacing those you don't have coming back? That's loosely what we ask when we're setting expectations for a team; it's also what these projections attempt to do objectively."

Top 10:
Team, Overall SP+ projection score
1. Georgia, 34.2
2. Ohio St., 30.8
3. Oregon, 29
4. Alabama, 27.8
5. Texas, 27.7
6. Penn St. 26.1
7. Michigan 25
8. Ole Miss 24.7
9. Notre Dame 23.4 (NDs offense is #10 and their defense is #9)
10. LSU 23.1

link: https://archive.is/EkzCw#selection-14007.0-14011.149

 

[chaseball]

I've been posting this projection system since back when Connelly (who is also one of the two authors responsible for F+) was a nerd in his basement and not a paid ESPN college football writer/analyst lol

Anyway this is the first time I've seen ND in the top 10 in this projection system since its inception.

I think NDs investments in the transfer portal are helping them to become more competitive. #9 is still not good enough (because the teams at the very top are still so much further ahead) but better than #12 or #13 which is where ND has been locked in at going into every season over the last 5+ years.

 

[Juniper_Run]

Thanks for posting. I always appreciate seeing data from multiple different ranking systems. This is a rare year where predictive systems like this and voting systems like the AP all seem to agree on their assessment of ND. There seems to be a consensus expectation that 4-5 teams will be really strong and the Irish will be toward the top of the heap for "everyone else."

 

[sjb75]

Thanks for posting. I always appreciate seeing data from multiple different ranking systems. This is a rare year where predictive systems like this and voting systems like the AP all seem to agree on their assessment of ND. There seems to be a consensus expectation that 4-5 teams will be really strong and the Irish will be toward the top of the heap for "everyone else."

And consensus expectation at the end of the day means very little as compared to playing the 12 games.

 

[chaseball]

Looking like ND is pretty equal to the 7th or so best team in the SEC lol

That national championship trophy looking more and more elusive every season

 

[BGI User 756]

Looking like ND is pretty equal to the 7th or so best team in the SEC lol

That national championship trophy looking more and more elusive every season

Answer raulduke you wuss

 

[Golson5]

Looking like ND is pretty equal to the 7th or so best team in the SEC lol

That national championship trophy looking more and more elusive every season

AA ND beat major league SEC

 

[TheSodFather]

 

[NDinNJ]

Looking like ND is pretty equal to the 7th or so best team in the SEC lol

That national championship trophy looking more and more elusive every season

The sh1t you post means zero coming from a less than zero. you are the biggest loser on the Internet. A complete waste of life.

 

[NDSMC78]

Looking like ND is pretty equal to the 7th or so best team in the SEC lol

That national championship trophy looking more and more elusive every season

What is it like to go through life being the most negative human being on the planet? Does everyone hate you?

 

[raulduke_007]

Looking like ND is pretty equal to the 7th or so best team in the SEC lol

That national championship trophy looking more and more elusive every season

So by that logic #3 Oregon is only a Big Sky level football team because they were in a 1 score game in the 4th at home vs Idaho.

 

[francade]

“Looking like ND is pretty equal to the 7th or so best team in the SEC lol”

Equal my ass. That was a beatdown. If Leonard makes two easy throws that he’d love to have back, it’s a 40-10 blowout. Plus the home cookin’ was on full display. Equal my ass.

 

[francade]

Our young no experienced line made their 5 star experienced d line look like little girls in the 4th. Enough w/ the “equal” nonsense.

 

[BGI User 756]

So by that logic #3 Oregon is only a Big Sky level football team because they were in a 1 score game in the 4th at home vs Idaho.

Oh no. Chase used Oregon as an example of the “big leagues”. They are allowed to be up by 3 with 2 mins at home against Idaho and still be major league…

 

[BGI User 756]

Our young no experienced line made their 5 star experienced d line look like little girls in the 4th. Enough w/ the “equal” nonsense.

Chass won’t return for a while. Just like he ducked out last nite after raulduke asked him why the previous 3 top ten teams to visit College Station lost. Same with Swiss Cheese Indy, pedoirish, and 4digits. Real loud when ND loses or is struggling, run like Karen when they win.