I don't think if Iowa loses a close one to Nebraska they drop them down much farther than the 7 range, then when MSU beats PSU they are 3 or 4. If Iowa beats MSU that is the ammunition needed to put them back in the top 4.
Iowa beat Northwestern who beat Stanford. Iowa would have beaten MSU in this scenario who beat Oregon who beat Stanford & USC. Iowa has one more win than ND and won a conference championship with the best record(a conference with 5 teams in the top 17).
The B1G champion with 1 loss won't be knocked out.
ND has to hope for a OU loss.
