Marcus Freeman just produced a #8 F+ (better than all but 1 season under Brian Kelly)

[chaseball]

And in just his 2nd year as a head coach. Better than any season under Brian Kelly except for 2021 (#7).

He also improved from #22 last year to #8 this season. This is pretty exciting and hints at some real upside going forward as he gets more experience/familiar as a head coach.

 

[Holycrossover3]

Oh my goodness. Incredible.

Why don’t you post more about F+?

 

[chaseball]

Oh my goodness. Incredible.

Why don’t you post more about F+?

This is the single best measure of in-season performance. The results are really good in year 2 (big improvement from year 1). Something I think ND fans should be a lot more excited about.

 

[NotreDomer1]

Good to hear. Thanks for the info

 

[BGI User 756]

And in just his 2nd year as a head coach. Better than any season under Brian Kelly except for 2021 (#7).

He also improved from #22 last year to #8 this season. This is pretty exciting and hints at some real upside going forward as he gets more experience/familiar as a head coach.

Lol. The irony

How marry that to your incessant complaints about recruiting is worse under MF? And the 3 losses, especially the blowout to Ville?

 

[Golson5]

And in just his 2nd year as a head coach. Better than any season under Brian Kelly except for 2021 (#7).

He also improved from #22 last year to #8 this season. This is pretty exciting and hints at some real upside going forward as he gets more experience/familiar as a head coach.

We were not #7 in 21. That's a bad ranking.

But you said there has been little to no improvement....

 

[WhySeperateKnob]

And in just his 2nd year as a head coach. Better than any season under Brian Kelly except for 2021 (#7).

He also improved from #22 last year to #8 this season. This is pretty exciting and hints at some real upside going forward as he gets more experience/familiar as a head coach.

....New year and those new meds are working wonders.....

 

[NDSMC78]

This is the single best measure of in-season performance. The results are really good in year 2 (big improvement from year 1). Something I think ND fans should be a lot more excited about.

Nonsense. The single best measure of in season performance is playing the games on the field. Are you really not aware by now that most people here think you are a fool?

 

[mbd11]

Not surprising. Statistically, we had a very strong team. We were ranked in the top 10 in total defense and top 30 in total offense. Also, when we won, we usually won big. 9 of our 10 wins were by 21+ pts. The Duke game was our only close win.

 

[stu4don]

I'm curious. Who were the top ten in F+?

 

[stu4don]

Hey, we're better than Washington!

1​

Michigan​

2.51​

1.70​

6​

2.47​

1​

1.20​

12​

14-0​

14-0​

3-0​

3-0​

4-0​

4-0​

5-0​

6-0​

8-0​

2​

Georgia​

2.47​

2.29​

3​

1.77​

5​

1.53​

6​

13-1​

12-1​

0-1​

4-1​

5-1​

6-1​

8-1​

9-1​

4-0​

3​

Oregon​

2.40​

2.84​

1​

1.35​

13​

-.64​

96​

12-2​

11-2​

0-2​

2-2​

3-2​

4-2​

6-2​

7-2​

5-0​

4​

Ohio State​

2.05​

.96​

22​

2.45​

2​

.85​

34​

11-2​

10-2​

2-1​

2-2​

3-2​

4-2​

4-2​

5-2​

6-0​

5​

Penn State​

1.86​

.91​

24​

2.11​

4​

1.13​

16​

10-3​

9-3​

0-2​

0-3​

1-3​

2-3​

3-3​

4-3​

6-0​

6​

Texas​

1.84​

1.38​

12​

1.55​

9​

1.76​

2​

12-2​

12-2​

1-1​

2-2​

3-2​

5-2​

7-2​

7-2​

5-0​

7​

Alabama​

1.82​

1.17​

17​

1.68​

6​

1.62​

3​

12-2​

11-2​

2-2​

5-2​

6-2​

7-2​

7-2​

8-2​

4-0​

8​

Notre Dame​

1.72​

1.21​

14​

1.64​

7​

.80​

38​

10-3​

9-3​

0-1​

2-1​

3-3​

4-3​

4-3​

4-3​

6-0​

9​

Washington​

1.64​

2.05​

4​

.59​

36​

.61​

44​

14-0​

14-0​

3-0​

6-0​

7-0​

7-0​

9-0​

10-0​

4-0​

10​

LSU​

1.60​

2.79​

2​

-.27​

85​

-.15​

73​

10-3​

9-3​

0-1​

2-3​

2-3​

4-3​

5-3​

6-3​

4-0​

11​

Missouri​

1.58​

1.19​

15​

1.35​

14​

.89​

31​

11-2​

10-2​

1-2​

3-2​

4-2​

4-2​

6-2​

8-2​

3-0​

12​

Kansas State​

1.47​

1.61​

9​

.87​

28​

-.11​

71​

9-4​

8-4​

0-1​

0-2​

2-2​

4-3​

5-4​

6-4​

3-0​

13​

Florida State​

1.45​

.86​

25​

1.53​

11​

1.04​

21​

13-1​

12-1​

1-1​

1-1​

5-1​

5-1​

7-1​

7-1​

6-0​

14​

Oklahoma​

1.39​

1.63​

8​

.86​

29​

-.87​

104​

10-3​

10-3​

1-0​

1-1​

1-2​

5-2​

5-3​

6-3​

4-0​

15​

Ole Miss​

1.35​

1.24​

13​

.88​

27​

.97​

26​

11-2​

10-2​

2-2​

3-2​

3-2​

4-2​

4-2​

7-2​

4-0​

 

[Golson5]

Washington at 9, come on. This is atrocious

Ped st at 5 is even dumber

 

[Golson5]

Washington beat Oregon twice and Texas and is still that low. Just laughable

 

[Pennick4]

I will finally be able to get to sleep in 24. Thanks 😜

 

[mbd11]

Washington beat Oregon twice and Texas and is still that low. Just laughable

Washington, believe it or not, is 10th in total offense and 93rd in total defense. That probably explains it. It's actually amazing they're 14-0 with a defense that's statistically that bad. They also had a lot of close wins, like when they beat 5-7 WSU by only 3 points.

 

[chaseball]

Hey, we're better than Washington!

1​

Michigan​

2.51​

1.70​

6​

2.47​

1​

1.20​

12​

14-0​

14-0​

3-0​

3-0​

4-0​

4-0​

5-0​

6-0​

8-0​

2​

Georgia​

2.47​

2.29​

3​

1.77​

5​

1.53​

6​

13-1​

12-1​

0-1​

4-1​

5-1​

6-1​

8-1​

9-1​

4-0​

3​

Oregon​

2.40​

2.84​

1​

1.35​

13​

-.64​

96​

12-2​

11-2​

0-2​

2-2​

3-2​

4-2​

6-2​

7-2​

5-0​

4​

Ohio State​

2.05​

.96​

22​

2.45​

2​

.85​

34​

11-2​

10-2​

2-1​

2-2​

3-2​

4-2​

4-2​

5-2​

6-0​

5​

Penn State​

1.86​

.91​

24​

2.11​

4​

1.13​

16​

10-3​

9-3​

0-2​

0-3​

1-3​

2-3​

3-3​

4-3​

6-0​

6​

Texas​

1.84​

1.38​

12​

1.55​

9​

1.76​

2​

12-2​

12-2​

1-1​

2-2​

3-2​

5-2​

7-2​

7-2​

5-0​

7​

Alabama​

1.82​

1.17​

17​

1.68​

6​

1.62​

3​

12-2​

11-2​

2-2​

5-2​

6-2​

7-2​

7-2​

8-2​

4-0​

8​

Notre Dame​

1.72​

1.21​

14​

1.64​

7​

.80​

38​

10-3​

9-3​

0-1​

2-1​

3-3​

4-3​

4-3​

4-3​

6-0​

9​

Washington​

1.64​

2.05​

4​

.59​

36​

.61​

44​

14-0​

14-0​

3-0​

6-0​

7-0​

7-0​

9-0​

10-0​

4-0​

10​

LSU​

1.60​

2.79​

2​

-.27​

85​

-.15​

73​

10-3​

9-3​

0-1​

2-3​

2-3​

4-3​

5-3​

6-3​

4-0​

11​

Missouri​

1.58​

1.19​

15​

1.35​

14​

.89​

31​

11-2​

10-2​

1-2​

3-2​

4-2​

4-2​

6-2​

8-2​

3-0​

12​

Kansas State​

1.47​

1.61​

9​

.87​

28​

-.11​

71​

9-4​

8-4​

0-1​

0-2​

2-2​

4-3​

5-4​

6-4​

3-0​

13​

Florida State​

1.45​

.86​

25​

1.53​

11​

1.04​

21​

13-1​

12-1​

1-1​

1-1​

5-1​

5-1​

7-1​

7-1​

6-0​

14​

Oklahoma​

1.39​

1.63​

8​

.86​

29​

-.87​

104​

10-3​

10-3​

1-0​

1-1​

1-2​

5-2​

5-3​

6-3​

4-0​

15​

Ole Miss​

1.35​

1.24​

13​

.88​

27​

.97​

26​

11-2​

10-2​

2-2​

3-2​

3-2​

4-2​

4-2​

7-2​

4-0​

Vegas would probably have this game close in hypothetical scenario ND were to play Washington this weekend -- with regular season rosters of course

 

[ivan brunetti]

I get why people rag on F+ and the other math rankings. They aren't perfect, and the OP seems to have a crush on them.

But it is almost always better to be higher ranked, whatever the metric. Interesting that Oregon is still so high. I have seen them highly ranked in almost all the power rankings. There is an argument that the Ducks really underachieved by not at least getting a split this year with Washington.

 

[Golson5]

Washington, believe it or not, is 10th in total offense and 93rd in total defense. That probably explains it. It's actually amazing they're 14-0 with a defense that's statistically that bad. They also had a lot of close wins, like when they beat 5-7 WSU by only 3 points.

There is no explanation

It is beyond awful

 

[chaseball]

Not surprising. Statistically, we had a very strong team. We were ranked in the top 10 in total defense and top 30 in total offense. Also, when we won, we usually won big. 9 of our 10 wins were by 21+ pts. The Duke game was our only close win.

ND was 14th in offense and 7th in defense when you adjust for opponent quality and luck. Really solid performance in year 2--MF outperformed his talent. This suggests player development has been really good so far under MF

 

[chaseball]

I get why people rag on F+ and the other math rankings. They aren't perfect, and the OP seems to have a crush on them.

But it is almost always better to be higher ranked, whatever the metric. Interesting that Oregon is still so high. I have seen them highly ranked in almost all the power rankings. There is an argument that the Ducks really underachieved by not at least getting a split this year with Washington.

It isn't that I have a crush on it. It's that the evidence often opposes the narrative around here and it's worthy of discussion

 

[IrishExpert2288]

Seek help Buffalo Bill

 

[mbd11]

Vegas would probably have this game close in hypothetical scenario ND were to play Washington this weekend -- with regular season rosters of course

I think we'd beat Washington. Because we have an elite pass defense (#2 in the nation in pass efficiency defense last I checked, before the bowl). And our good offense would make mincemeat of their 93rd-ranked defense. I'd pick us to beat them, 42-31.

I'm also picking Michigan to win next week, who have the #1 pass efficiency D.

 

[sjb75]

I think we'd beat Washington. Because we have an elite pass defense (#2 in the nation in pass efficiency defense last I checked, before the bowl). And our good offense would make mincemeat of their 93rd-ranked defense. I'd pick us to beat them, 42-31.

I'm also picking Michigan to win next week, who have the #1 pass efficiency D.

"I think we'd beat Washington." Bullshit.

 

[Get Nasty]

And in just his 2nd year as a head coach. Better than any season under Brian Kelly except for 2021 (#7).

He also improved from #22 last year to #8 this season. This is pretty exciting and hints at some real upside going forward as he gets more experience/familiar as a head coach.

So he has almost as many Fs as Kelly in only 3 season…. Yuck

 

[chaseball]

Basically if I were AD at ND I'd be really satisfied with my decision to employ MF right about now. I would also be doing what it takes to start gaining some ground with the top 100 elite prospects in football. Some really big hits on the recruiting trail with another year of development at this same level and ND is a team who might be able to beat some really good football teams in the playoff next year and beyond. We need that next level of prospect though -- i'm tired of being the Cinderella team that squeaked into the playoff/NY6 and gets exited round 1/blown out against the big boys. This team was closer than we've been with the first tier in performance in a while when you consider the entirety of the last decade of the program. It's an impressively productive season by an ultra green coach.

 

[chaseball]

Also, to add to my last post, if NDs #8 F+ ranking holds, i'm guessing their pre-season projection by SP+ this upcoming off-season is going to have ND firmly entrenched somewhere in the back half of the top 10 for 2024. Which would be a really great sign and the first time i've seen ND in the top 10 since they started releasing those preseason SP+ projections about 5 years ago.

 

[tbonesays]

This is the single best measure of in-season performance. The results are really good in year 2 (big improvement from year 1). Something I think ND fans should be a lot more excited about.

Amazing what happens when your opponent commits a lot of turnovers.

 

[chaseball]

Amazing what happens when your opponent commits a lot of turnovers.

The F+ system actually minimizes the effects of turnovers that are not the result of pressures across the board because turnovers in general are a high variance outcome (despite having a huge impact on the game). In instances like this, this is where you start to see a discrepancy in the F+ rankings and the traditional resume rankings like the AP, and even playoff-ranking where W/L record is the entirety of where you are ranked.

If anything, ND having a better net positive turnover rate would decrease their F+ ranking if all of the other performance stayed the same, but they even overcame that effect to produce a really nice top 10 season. Their performance was legit.

Not good enough performance for tier 1, but closer for sure.

 

[tbonesays]

The F+ system actually minimizes the effects of turnovers that are not the result of pressures across the board because turnovers in general are a high variance outcome (despite having a huge impact on the game).

Really? How do they do that?

 

[Patrirish]

And in just his 2nd year as a head coach. Better than any season under Brian Kelly except for 2021 (#7).

He also improved from #22 last year to #8 this season. This is pretty exciting and hints at some real upside going forward as he gets more experience/familiar as a head coach.

BETTER THAN 2012 ? ? ?

THAT TELLS YOU ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT F+

 

[wi_hoosier]

And in just his 2nd year as a head coach. Better than any season under Brian Kelly except for 2021 (#7).

He also improved from #22 last year to #8 this season. This is pretty exciting and hints at some real upside going forward as he gets more experience/familiar as a head coach.

Still finished 10-3

 

[IrishExpert2288]

Here’s my system. You add up your Wins. Then you add up your Losses. Then you see which number is bigger. Anything else is complete BS.

9-4 & 10-3, was not good enough for the coach before Freeman, So why should Freeman be evaluated differently?

Freeman would be the first guy to tell you he needs to be better and wants to be held to the highest of standards.

 

[mbd11]

I think we'd beat Washington. Because we have an elite pass defense (#2 in the nation in pass efficiency defense last I checked, before the bowl). And our good offense would make mincemeat of their 93rd-ranked defense. I'd pick us to beat them, 42-31.

I'm also picking Michigan to win next week, who have the #1 pass efficiency D.

Let's take a look at our 3 common opponent results:

ND 48, USC 20
Washington 52, USC 42

ND 56, Stanford 23
Washington 42, Stanford 33

ND 40, Oregon State 8
Washington 22, Oregon State 20

ND dominated the Pac-12 this year.

 

[chaseball]

Really? How do they do that?

They use the play by play data. Basically the F+ system is not going to reward you for being on the receiving end of special teams or fluky turnover miscues even if you ultimately win the game (although you do get rewarded for winning games too).

The system is mostly going to reward you for having an offense that efficiently gets yards and scores points and for having a defense that prevents the other team from accomplishing that.

You'd be surprised how often your typical upset in college football is merely the result of a ton of special teams and turnover miscues where the ball just happened to keep falling in the underdog's hands (which are mostly random variance outcomes/just bad luck)

 

[sjb75]

Let's take a look at our 3 common opponent results:

ND 48, USC 20
Washington 52, USC 42

ND 56, Stanford 23
Washington 42, Stanford 33

ND 40, Oregon State 8
Washington 22, Oregon State 20

ND dominated the Pac-12 this year.

"I think we'd beat Washington."---mbd11

Bullshit.

 

[tbonesays]

They use the play by play data. Basically the F+ system is not going to reward you for being on the receiving end of special teams or fluky turnover miscues even if you ultimately win the game (although you do get rewarded for winning games too).

The system is mostly going to reward you for having an offense that efficiently gets yards and scores points and for having a defense that prevents the other team from accomplishing that.

You'd be surprised how often your typical upset in college football is merely the result of a ton of special teams and turnover miscues where the ball just happened to keep falling in the underdog's hands (which are mostly random variance outcomes/just bad luck)

Fremeau's FEI does not filter out special teams or turnovers, the formula rewards them. Connelly might dilute them as he goes play by play success rate along with special teams. F+ is a an average between two very different ratings systems.

 

[mbd11]

They use the play by play data. Basically the F+ system is not going to reward you for being on the receiving end of special teams or fluky turnover miscues even if you ultimately win the game (although you do get rewarded for winning games too).

The system is mostly going to reward you for having an offense that efficiently gets yards and scores points and for having a defense that prevents the other team from accomplishing that.

You'd be surprised how often your typical upset in college football is merely the result of a ton of special teams and turnover miscues where the ball just happened to keep falling in the underdog's hands (which are mostly random variance outcomes/just bad luck)

I like stats, too, but the difference between us is you like one stat to measure the entire team, while I prefer looking at different stats for individual units of the team. E.g., team passing efficiency defense, which is a measure of how good your pass defense is. BTW ND's now #1 in that stat, after the bowls.

Texas is 47th in team passing efficiency defense. So Washington didn't actually face a great pass defense in the semifinal. They will in the final, though, as Michigan's #3. They're also #1 in total defense.

 

[Golson5]

I like stats, too, but the difference between us is you like one stat to measure the entire team, while I prefer looking at different stats for individual units of the team. E.g., team passing efficiency defense, which is a measure of how good your pass defense is. BTW ND's now #1 in that stat, after the bowls.

Texas is 47th in team passing efficiency defense. So Washington didn't actually face a great pass defense in the semifinal. They will in the final, though, as Michigan's #3. They're also #1 in total defense.

Playing against big 10 offenses which I think everyone can agree on is pretty poor

 

[mbd11]

Playing against big 10 offenses which I think everyone can agree on is pretty poor

They held Milroe to 116 yds passing on 23 attempts, with no touchdowns. That's pretty good. And he had 192 yds and 2 TDs against Georgia.

 

[Golson5]

They held Milroe to 116 yds passing on 23 attempts. That's pretty good. And he had 192 yds and 2 TDs against Georgia.

Yeah that's pretty good but Alabama isnt nearly as good as Washington at throwing the ball. Washington has a better QB, WRs and OL and OC

This will be the best passing offense Michigan has faced by far