LSU Ole Miss

[tbonesays]

OL problems, and yes, a weird/slow start for Leonard. That being said, I could see the ND offense really finding its gear during the 2nd half and becoming potent.

We have a stable of game breaking RBs and then a game breaking runner at QB. When those things are "on", the O can be really dangerous/potent. I'm hoping that the bye did wonders for several reasons:

1. Health
2. Continuity
3. OL stability
4. The staff "settles in" with who we are and what really works.

When the O has absolutely had to score and respond this year, it has. Aside from NIU.

I'm hoping that the O improves and really becomes a dangerous unit until these next 7 games.

We should be able to overwhelm everyone left on the schedule.

OL has to stay health. Maybe Jagusah gets back at some point too?

No question ND is in at 11-1.

10-2? Very doubtful.

That's great. I agree, but then what? Do you believe Riley Leonard and the offense are capable of taking this team deep into the playoffs? The Defense is, but the lack of a vertical passing game will result in an early first round exit.

Not with the depleted roster. A playoff berth is just a national bad game.

 

[Rockne's Rambler]

ND ding dong.

Reading your original post, it didn’t sound like you’re an ND fan, so I wondered which SEC school you followed.

ND ding dong.

 

[Pennick4]

I promised you I would show you my DIY POWER RATING SYSTEM which measures teams as per last week's results. Check it out.

• Method: Aggregate net yards differential to-date + aggregate net points differential to-date x or -:- by a weekly updated SOS coefficient.
• Measures performance to date on an aggregated basis. As such, it is a dynamic measure that changes from week to week based on how a team continues to perform. NO OTHER FACTORS as when you are DEFINING POWER by ACTUAL REAL-WORLD RESULTS, everything else is already BAKED IN.
• Measures how well a team has performed using the most BASIC METRICS but without regard to wins or losses. In other words, how has a team DONE OVERALL – in terms of moving the ball and defending – against teams it’s ACTUALLY PLAYED. What’s its OVERALL AGGREGATE POWER OUTPUT as STATISTICALLY DEMONSTRATED. No INTANGIBLES or QUALIFIERS.
• It’s INDICATIVE, not PREDICTIVE as anything can happen on ANY GIVE SATURDAY.
• That said, I just put together a POINT SPREAD ANALOGUE which I hope to test over the balance of the season. It took me awhile to figure out what the size of the point intervals between orders of magnitude should be and how many points to allocate per interval, but I now think I have it. I'm interested in how well "my lines" stack up against the various gambling odds.

MY POWER RANKINGS BASED ON GAMES PLAYED IN THE WEEK ENDING 10-12-24

The first number in parenthesis following my calculated power rating for teams 1 through 25 is their FPI ranking; the second, their AP ranking.

1. Texas – 562.97 (1)/(1)

2. Ohio State – 510.13 (2)/(4)

3. Ole Miss – 497.53 (5)/(18)

4. Miami – 397.88 (10)/(6)

5. Alabama – 397.45 (3)/(7)

6. Penn State – 376.69 (9)/(3)

7. Notre Dame – 374.00 (6)/(12)

8. Oregon – 372.76 (8)/(2)

9. Indiana – 337.03 (15)/(16)

10. Georgia – 335.82 (4)/(5)

11. Tennessee – 334.15 (7)/(11)

12. Louisville – 315.39 (16)/(NR)

13. Washington – 310.87 (40)/(NR)

14. Missouri – 280.64 (19)/(19)

15. Boise State – 262.64 (22)/(15)

16. USC – 257.98 (13)/(NR)

17. Arkansas – 249.99 (25)/(NR)

18. Texas A&M – 248.92 (12)/(14)

19. Clemson – 245.82 (11)/10

20. Iowa State – 244.63 (17)/(9)

21. SMU – 237.63 (18)/(21)

22. Tulane – 223.79 (24)/(NR)

23. Georgia Tech – 219.09 (43)/(NR)

24. LSU – 198.49 (14)/(8)

25. Pitt – 196.86 (36)/(20)

Teams Ranked by FPI and/or the AP That Didn’t Make My Top 25:

Oklahoma, ranked 20th as per FPI and unranked by the AP, came in at –17.21.

Kansas State, ranked 21st as per FPI and 17th by the AP came in at 188.50.

Iowa, ranked 23rd as per FPI and unranked by the AP came in at 168.18.

BYU, ranked 29th as per FPI and 13th by the AP, came in at 174.86.

Michigan, ranked 33rd as per FPI and 24th by the AP, came in at –13.45.

Army ranked 51st as per FPI and 23rd by the AP, came in at 141.38

Illinois, ranked 57th as per FPI and 22nd by the AP, came in at 92.11.

Navy, ranked 70th as per FPI and 25th by the AP, came in at 99.73.

The only two instances where the FPI ranking and my calculations came out EXACTLY the same were with Texas at 1 and Oregon at 8. With Texas it was a double match with both FPI and the AP, while with Oregon, it was only with FPI.

These numbers will obviously change in the weeks ahead as teams play tougher and/or weaker teams and acquit themselves better or worse as the case may be.

Using my method and the point spread system I’ve developed off the back of it, ND is a 9 point favorite on a neutral field against Georgia Tech.

Frankly, I think this system has legs, and I will test the point spread aspect of it over the balance of the season.

Basically, it’s just three simple steps: points differentials, yardage differentials, SOS co-efficient. With all of the data there IN PLAIN SIGHT online.

This is not an attempt at GOSPEL nor is it meant to be. It's just a COMPARATIVE MEASUREMENT TOOL BASED ON ACTUAL DATA. To me, the correlation between the DATA and the RANKINGS is AT LEAST AS PLAUSIBLE as that provided by FPI and whatever BLACK BOX METHOD beyond the eye-test the AP uses in its rankings, IF ANY.

Yawn

 

[savvyandsassier]

Reading your original post, it didn’t sound like you’re an ND fan, so I wondered which SEC school you followed.

He called you a ding dong, that's hilarious. No offense at all. That's just a funny epithet, I guess is the word for that. Nobody gets called a ding dong anymore. But you just did, bitch!

 

[sjb75]

Garrett Nussmeier can play.

 

[chaseball]

Garrett Nussmeier can play.

Isn't it amazing what Kelly's offenses --and QBs-- are capable of when he's working with four and five star talent in the SEC instead of three and four-star talent at Notre Dame?

 

[mbd11]

Hopefully A&M will beat LSU next week, and knock them out of the top 10.

 

[sjb75]

Hopefully A&M will beat LSU next week, and knock them out of the top 10.

That’s a good football game.

 

[Golson5]

Isn't it amazing what Kelly's offenses --and QBs-- are capable of when he's working with four and five star talent in the SEC instead of three and four-star talent at Notre Dame?

He had 233 pass yards and 0 Tds with all that talent

 

[Golson5]

Isn't it amazing what Kelly's offenses --and QBs-- are capable of when he's working with four and five star talent in the SEC instead of three and four-star talent at Notre Dame?

They're 8th in 247s college team talent. We are 9th. We have a higher avg ranking per player

Weird comment

 

[chaseball]

He had 233 pass yards and 0 Tds with all that talent

LSU *offense* has been a lock inside the top five in F+ since the start of last season continuing into halfway of this season And Nussmeier looks like another NFL quarterback

 

[Golson5]

LSU has been a lock inside the top five in F+ since the start of last season continuing into halfway of this season And that's Meyer looks like another NFL quarterback

You said about their QB. I said he had 233 pass yards and 0 TD's.

You come back with F+ rankings 🤣

We're better than LSU

 

[chaseball]

You said about their QB. I said he had 233 pass yards and 0 TD's.

You come back with F+ rankings 🤣

We're better than LSU

I meant to say LSU's offense has been a lock inside the top five and that Nussmeier looks like another Brian Kelly developed NFL quarterback

 

[chaseball]

LSU just beat a really good Arkansas team by 3 plus scores they are going to get a big jump in the F+ ratings next week My guess is it'll be close between them and Notre Dame.

LSU has a lot of really high end talent at impact/important positions despite their overall talent not being much different than Notre Dame's. They also have 9 five star players on their roster to NDs one

I would take the talent composition on LSU's 85 man roster (stars and scrubs) over Notre Dame's (B fest) even if it came with more lower rated players on the back end

 

[Golson5]

LSU just beat a really good Arkansas team by 3 plus scores they are going to get a big jump in the F+ ratings next week

Why would Arkansas be considered a really good team when they are 4 and 3 and lost to Oklahoma state?

That's funny

 

[NIN Irish]

LSU just beat a really good Arkansas team by 3 plus scores they are going to get a big jump in the F+ ratings next week

Arkansas is not really good dummy, and I don't care what your f says.

 

[savvyandsassier]

If LSU loses to A&M, and we beat USC, then ND fans/BK haters should have all bragging rights they need to content themselves, irrespective of anything else.

 

[sjb75]

He had 233 pass yards and 0 Tds with all that talent

You can spin stats all you want. The kid can play. Live arm. Strong. Pure pocket guy who can spin it.

 

[chaseball]

To add...

LSU is competing for a top three class in the country in 2025 as well with the number one quarterback wide receiver and running back prospects in the country incoming based on BKs quickly emerging reputation on offense (like the one he had before he got to Notre Dame) 😂

 

[Golson5]

You can spin stats all you want. The kid can play. Live arm. Strong. Pure pocket guy who can spin it.

I think he can play too. But he had 233 yards and 0 tds in this game

 

[Golson5]

To add...

LSU is competing for a top three class in the country in 2025 as well with the number one quarterback wide receiver and running back prospects in the country incoming based on BKs quickly emerging reputation on offense (like the one he had before he got to Notre Dame) 😂

Crazy that he's lost 8 games at LSU with all that talent

 

[sjb75]

I think he can play too. But he had 233 yards and 0 tds in this game

Rocket had average stats as well for Lou Holtz.

And he’s still the most dynamic CFB player I have ever watched in South Bend.

 

[Golson5]

Rocket had average stats as well for Lou Holtz.

And he’s still the most dynamic CFB player I have ever watched in South Bend.

Wow that was a weird response

 

[chaseball]

Crazy that he's lost 8 games at LSU with all that talent

Besides the nice roster that he originally inherited -- plus the transfer portal work he's done -- he's just starting to get the talent now in this 2025 class

his first two classes at LSU were pretty ND bleh-like

 

[tbonesays]

Crazy that he's lost 8 games at LSU with all that talent

I seem to be the only one who noticed that BK produced top defenses at ND (except for one 2.5 year period). This after 500 articles discussing his offense but not really mentioning the other side of the ball.

ND must have recruited a lost of 5 stars on D.

 

[sjb75]

Crazy that he's lost 8 games at LSU with all that talent

Many teams in the SEC have talent. It’s the most talent rich conference in CFB.

 

[Golson5]

Besides the nice roster that he originally inherited -- plus the transfer portal work he's done -- he's just starting to get the talent now in this 2025 class

his first two classes at LSU were pretty ND bleh-like

Yeah the last 2 ND classes were really bleh lol

Jer Love
Adonis Shuler
Chris Grey
Leonard Moore
KVA
Ausberry
Bowen
Traore
Bryce Young
Knapp
Pendleton
Aneyas Williams
Flanagan
Greathouse
Smith

That's only the guys who are key contributors right now. There's more from those 2 classes coming in the pipeline

Carr
Young
Williams
Gilbert
Lambert
Absher

Our last 2 recruiting classes were outstanding

 

[Golson5]

Many teams in the SEC have talent. It’s the most talent rich conference in CFB.

3 of the losses were to non sec teams

Fsu 2x and USC

 

[sjb75]

3 of the losses were to non sec teams

Fsu 2x and USC

Well, if you are going to criticize Brian Kelly for losing to USC and Florida St., what about Marcus Freeman losing to Northern Illinois at home?

 

[Patrirish]

Isn't it amazing what Kelly's offenses --and QBs-- are capable of when he's working with four and five star talent in the SEC instead of three and four-star talent at Notre Dame?

Did you ever consider that that talent can’t qualify to get into Notre Dame?

 

[ZibbyQuinn]

3 of the losses were to non sec teams

Fsu 2x and USC

Woke SJB,
Almost feel bad for the dude. Just sitting on his sofa. with assinine non stop posts

 

[Golson5]

Well, if you are going to criticize Brian Kelly for losing to USC and Florida St., what about Marcus Freeman losing to Northern Illinois at home?

We've done that over and over. The conversation was about Kelly. Not MF

But they have about the same record and MF was a 1st time head coach

 

[sjb75]

We've done that over and over. The conversation was about Kelly. Not MF

But they have about the same record and MF was a 1st time head coach

You’ve turned into a Notre Dame apologist.

Many around CFB suck. Except Notre Dame. Everything and anything about Notre Dame is explained away.

But guys like Brian Kelly, Mike Norvell, and Lincoln Riley all suck.

But Marcus Freeman? Explained away.

 

[Golson5]

You’ve turned into a Notre Dame apologist.

Many around CFB suck. Except Notre Dame. Everything and anything about Notre Dame is explained away.

But guys like Brian Kelly, Mike Norvell, and Lincoln Riley all suck.

But Marcus Freeman? Explained away.

What are you blabbing about now 🤣🤣

When did I say BK sucked? What are you even talking about? Such dumb comments that have nothing to do with what we are talking about

Don't start again with the Mike Norvell nonsense. The guy has 7 losses in his last 8 games. But yet we know we know, MF lost to NIU so that is somehow worse than going 1 and 7 🤣🤣

Your brain needs to be studied

 

[BGI User 756]

Well, if you are going to criticize Brian Kelly for losing to USC and Florida St., what about Marcus Freeman losing to Northern Illinois at home?

New day, same shit

 

[BGI User 756]

You’ve turned into a Notre Dame apologist.

Many around CFB suck. Except Notre Dame. Everything and anything about Notre Dame is explained away.

But guys like Brian Kelly, Mike Norvell, and Lincoln Riley all suck.

But Marcus Freeman? Explained away.

New day. Same shit

 

[tbonesays]

What are you blabbing about now 🤣🤣

When did I say BK sucked? What are you even talking about? Such dumb comments that have nothing to do with what we are talking about

Don't start again with the Mike Norvell nonsense. The guy has 7 losses in his last 8 games. But yet we know we know, MF lost to NIU so that is somehow worse than going 1 and 7 🤣🤣

Your brain needs to be studied

I think Norvell lost to Brian Kelly and DC Marcus Freeman. Clearly Norvell could not be trusted with a top tier talent school like LSU.

 

[mbd11]

LSU *offense* has been a lock inside the top five in F+ since the start of last season continuing into halfway of this season And Nussmeier looks like another NFL quarterback

Nussmeier's a better passer than Leonard. I'll give you that. But that's the only advantage they have over us IMO. And we have a better defense.

 

[savvyandsassier]

Nussmeier's a better passer than Leonard. I'll give you that. But that's the only advantage they have over us IMO. And we have a better defense.

Nuss is like one of the top passing QBs in CFB, You don't have to grudgingly admit it. And RL is one of the worst. So that is what it is. I don't know, I think that would be a good playoff matchup. Obviously the media would eat that up. I personally wouldn't want that because I like LSU now and follow them. And they're kind of cool, they have a pretty sweet football culture even among SEC teams. But they're probably not going to make it, they have to go 4-1 against five good teams, even though Bama is not that good anymore, but Vandy is. We have to go 5-0, or maybe even 4-1 depending on the breaks. And we do play USC and now incredibly enough Army and Navy are going to be possible challenges.

But you know the committee would love that. ND vs LSU, and the hated BK. If I had to put money on it I'd pick us. I think we'd beat LSU. It does not help with all our injuries. And LSU's defense is pretty decent now.

 

[mbd11]

Nuss is like one of the top passing QBs in CFB, You don't have to grudgingly admit it. And RL is one of the worst. So that is what it is. I don't know, I think that would be a good playoff matchup. Obviously the media would eat that up. I personally wouldn't want that because I like LSU now and follow them. And they're kind of cool, they have a pretty sweet football culture even among SEC teams. But they're probably not going to make it, they have to go 4-1 against five good teams, even though Bama is not that good anymore, but Vandy is. We have to go 5-0, or maybe even 4-1 depending on the breaks. And we do play USC and now incredibly enough Army and Navy are going to be possible challenges.

But you know the committee would love that. ND vs LSU, and the hated BK. If I had to put money on it I'd pick us. I think we'd beat LSU. It does not help with all our injuries. And LSU's defense is pretty decent now.

I can't disagree that that'd be a great playoff matchup. But I'm focusing on one week at time. Next week, ND-Navy and LSU-A&M will both be huge games.