LSU Ole Miss
- Thread starter FightingIrish44
- Start date
Well of course 11-1 gets in. The theme of the last couple weeks is top teams being upset, namely in the SEC. And then you do the math, and you can calculate that they won't all go 10-2. Depending on the breaks, they're could be a lot of 9-3 teams, contending teams. And then maybe ND could slip in at 10-2. Of course 11-1 is good enough. USC losing to PSU did not help our cause. Because SOS is going to be huge. And it's going to be for seven spots, so it's going to be crazy all the arguments being made.
Yes I did state they were eliminated. …and I know you don’t have the critical thinking ability to see this, or the awareness to read a few more posts further….as you are a So Cal teacher ..but I explained further in my next response.
Lane needed that win to distance themselves in the second tier of SEC teams that want to be selected. Texas and Bama and UGA are heavy favorites to get in. Tenn/LSU/Ole Miss/AM probably fighting for 1-2 more spots.
And the SEC is not strong top to bottom. Read more than ESPN and MSNBC headlines, you will learn a lot
That's great. I agree, but then what? Do you believe Riley Leonard and the offense are capable of taking this team deep into the playoffs? The Defense is, but the lack of a vertical passing game will result in an early first round exit.
We need Texas A&M to keep winning, and to beat LSU in a few weeks. That'll help us in the polls. Right now we're getting a little disrespected IMO. We dropped to 12th today in the AP, after winning 49-7.
I think if Riley can hit the slants like yesterday and hit 2 deep throws per game, we can win first playoff game.
Those are BIG if's, especially vs a top 12 team, and not a crappy Stanford team,
LSU jumped 5 spots, after winning at home in OT. And Iowa State moved ahead of us (we had been tied) after beating West Virginia.
AM is not a top 12 team. 1st year head coach, that team was bound to improve as the season went on. Lets talk about NIU.
I think AM is top 20. Let’s see how they fare in next 3 weeks ….they have LSU, USCjr…after MSU
They don't need to beat LSU. Why would it matter if they beat LSU? Like, if they went 10-2, and were like, SEC champs or runners up that would be good, but they really need to beat LSU in particular. That's the big one as far as ND's playoff hopes go.
Let me ask you this, would rather have A&M go 10-2 and lose to LSU, or 8-4 and they beat LSU. In other words, do you put your BK hate above your concern for ND's fortunes? In any case, that is a little odd, and even disconcerting we actually dropped after beating Stanford, who obviously is not Ole Miss, but they're not that bad, and it was an impressive win. But I guess that's ominous evidence, at what football people think of ND's schedule.
They're ranked higher than Ole Miss now who you praised LSU for beating at home. While we won on the road
What? I didn't praise LSU for beating ole mis. I pointed out how LSU's QB threw the game tying TD from 20+ yards out and then proceeded to throw the game winning TD, something RL would not be able to do.
No you said they were a Varsity offense and Ours is a JV because they beat a top 10 team
Like I said, when they lose they would be ranked below TX am.
So we beat a higher ranked team now. On the road compared to at home. Our offenses put up the same amount of points but our offense has improved a lot since then
RL had the game winning drive and of course you would say he can't throw a 20 yard pass. You're obsessed and you can't stop yourself
I think the O is starting to find some things. We have 2 elite RBs, and an elite running QB. That trio will be damn hard to stop if the OL is healthy and right.
I could see them piling up points and yards in round 1 of the playoffs.
I'm betting that Denbrock is figuring out how to fit this all together.
But the OL, again, has to be healthy and right.
Listen- I get the Angeli stuff. I do. The NIU game was a mess. There were moments when I was calling for RL to sit.
But since, the O has found itself. This is a potent group, and I think it's gonna get better and better. It's a bruising physical brand of football, and RL makes it work.
I only singled out LSU because they jumped us in today's poll. But I'd like to see A&M win all their games, including that one.
I won a nice chunk of change betting on Kelly/LSU vs Kiffen/Ole Miss!
You can’t have an effective vertical passing game if you don’t have a solid OL.
That’s where it all begins
The OL has been good, not great but good. QB's have had time to throw.
I promised you I would show you my DIY POWER RATING SYSTEM which measures teams as per last week's results. Check it out.
- Method: Aggregate net yards differential to-date + aggregate net points differential to-date x or -:- by a weekly updated SOS coefficient.
- Measures performance to date on an aggregated basis. As such, it is a dynamic measure that changes from week to week based on how a team continues to perform. NO OTHER FACTORS as when you are DEFINING POWER by ACTUAL REAL-WORLD RESULTS, everything else is already BAKED IN.
- Measures how well a team has performed using the most BASIC METRICS but without regard to wins or losses. In other words, how has a team DONE OVERALL – in terms of moving the ball and defending – against teams it’s ACTUALLY PLAYED. What’s its OVERALL AGGREGATE POWER OUTPUT as STATISTICALLY DEMONSTRATED. No INTANGIBLES or QUALIFIERS.
- It’s INDICATIVE, not PREDICTIVE as anything can happen on ANY GIVE SATURDAY.
- That said, I just put together a POINT SPREAD ANALOGUE which I hope to test over the balance of the season. It took me awhile to figure out what the size of the point intervals between orders of magnitude should be and how many points to allocate per interval, but I now think I have it. I'm interested in how well "my lines" stack up against the various gambling odds.
The first number in parenthesis following my calculated power rating for teams 1 through 25 is their FPI ranking; the second, their AP ranking.
1. Texas – 562.97 (1)/(1)
2. Ohio State – 510.13 (2)/(4)
3. Ole Miss – 497.53 (5)/(18)
4. Miami – 397.88 (10)/(6)
5. Alabama – 397.45 (3)/(7)
6. Penn State – 376.69 (9)/(3)
7. Notre Dame – 374.00 (6)/(12)
8. Oregon – 372.76 (8)/(2)
9. Indiana – 337.03 (15)/(16)
10. Georgia – 335.82 (4)/(5)
11. Tennessee – 334.15 (7)/(11)
12. Louisville – 315.39 (16)/(NR)
13. Washington – 310.87 (40)/(NR)
14. Missouri – 280.64 (19)/(19)
15. Boise State – 262.64 (22)/(15)
16. USC – 257.98 (13)/(NR)
17. Arkansas – 249.99 (25)/(NR)
18. Texas A&M – 248.92 (12)/(14)
19. Clemson – 245.82 (11)/10
20. Iowa State – 244.63 (17)/(9)
21. SMU – 237.63 (18)/(21)
22. Tulane – 223.79 (24)/(NR)
23. Georgia Tech – 219.09 (43)/(NR)
24. LSU – 198.49 (14)/(8)
25. Pitt – 196.86 (36)/(20)
Teams Ranked by FPI and/or the AP That Didn’t Make My Top 25:
Oklahoma, ranked 20th as per FPI and unranked by the AP, came in at –17.21.
Kansas State, ranked 21st as per FPI and 17th by the AP came in at 188.50.
Iowa, ranked 23rd as per FPI and unranked by the AP came in at 168.18.
BYU, ranked 29th as per FPI and 13th by the AP, came in at 174.86.
Michigan, ranked 33rd as per FPI and 24th by the AP, came in at –13.45.
Army ranked 51st as per FPI and 23rd by the AP, came in at 141.38
Illinois, ranked 57th as per FPI and 22nd by the AP, came in at 92.11.
Navy, ranked 70th as per FPI and 25th by the AP, came in at 99.73.
The only two instances where the FPI ranking and my calculations came out EXACTLY the same were with Texas at 1 and Oregon at 8. With Texas it was a double match with both FPI and the AP, while with Oregon, it was only with FPI.
These numbers will obviously change in the weeks ahead as teams play tougher and/or weaker teams and acquit themselves better or worse as the case may be.
Using my method and the point spread system I’ve developed off the back of it, ND is a 9 point favorite on a neutral field against Georgia Tech.
Frankly, I think this system has legs, and I will test the point spread aspect of it over the balance of the season.
Basically, it’s just three simple steps: points differentials, yardage differentials, SOS co-efficient. With all of the data there IN PLAIN SIGHT online.
This is not an attempt at GOSPEL nor is it meant to be. It's just a COMPARATIVE MEASUREMENT TOOL BASED ON ACTUAL DATA. To me, the correlation between the DATA and the RANKINGS is AT LEAST AS PLAUSIBLE as that provided by FPI and whatever BLACK BOX METHOD beyond the eye-test the AP uses in its rankings, IF ANY.
