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Kizer Will Be a 1st Round Pick

TeddyOH

ND Expert
Feb 3, 2004
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With the NFL draft about 2 months away, the craziness of the NFL off-season begins next week at the NFL Scouting Combine. As far as I have read, Kizer will be fully participating - and he NEEDS TO!

Most scout rankings have Kizer as the #3 QB in the class, and an early 2nd round grade. This is probably fair, but will be completely wrong by April 27. Two big reasons:

1) Measurables
Kizer is the poster child for "measurables". He has prototypical size and arm strength for an NFL starter. He ran an NFL style offense requiring him to make reads and check into plays frequently at the line. He is a very smart kid, and will be a lights out interview. All of these will make him a "riser" in rankings post-combine. That's just the measurements and interview portion. Then, put in a good workout at the combine and at NDs pro day and he could project as the top QB off the board.

2) QB Need
Just look at the top 10 teams in the draft. I see 6 that NEED a starting QB. That doesn't even include other lower drafting teams that also need a QB. I can't recall so many teams qith a question mark at QB in recent years. There is no doubt that multiple QBs will come off the board in the 1st round. Mocks are saying 2, but I see a pretty good chance for a third via surprise or trade. The big wrinkle will be trades and free agent QBs prior to the draft. This could significantly impact the 1st round. All Kizer has to do is slot 1 pick higher and he goes top 12.

So buckle up. Starting next week, all the NFL prospects will get built up, torn down or more likely BOTH over the course of 2 months leading into the draft. I expect Kizer will be in the front car of that roller coaster! Should be a fun ride!
 
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Browns gonna go defense with overall #1 pick. Pretty cut and dried.
But they also have the #12 pick. Hmmm......

They need a QB. Kizer an Ohio kid. Perfect match.
Browns are dumb for passing on Carson wentz in the first place. But I agree kizer would be a good fit in Cleveland. He's used to losing!
 
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I tend to think the Browns are unlikely too. They have been burned TOO many times by 1st round QBs, including a prior Domer. I see them trading a pick for a QB as well, although no way is Garoppolo worth a high 1st round pick!!! That is literally insanity. Hue Jackson is a QB guy, so they will get whomever he likes.

It's clear I am predicting Kizer rises and becomes the #1 or #2 QB. Given that, I look more closely at San Francisco (2), Chicago (3) or Buffalo (10). I think it is highly likely Kizer ends up at one of these places.

Niners: Really tough call. New GM with their strategy a mystery. They will have nobody at QB after Kap opts out. So a QB will be a priority. Pretty good history with ND QBs though! I'm not a fan of the current team though, and think Kizer would struggle with them. They are in total rebuild.

Chicago: Natural fit for an ND guy. However, the Bears are also not a good fit. Cutler will be gone, but they have so many other needs. Again, Kizer will struggle.

Bills: This would be my hope for Kizer. Tyrod will either be waived or traded. They must get a QB. They have great weapons on offense, so could give Kizer a good chance.

Obviously, no team that drafts a QB in the 1st round is really setting him up for success (Goff). Kizer will have to grow into his position. I just hope he gets a decent chance. Our last two drafter QBs (Quinn and Clausen) never got a chance. Injuries and opportunity are a total crapshoot.

Who would have picked Dak prescott at last years draft as being the best rookie QB???
 
Cleveland needs to stop drafting QB's and start drafting O-Linemen. I'm a believer a great line can make an average QB look great. See Ken Dorsey at The U!
 
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My hope is that Kizer is NOT a starting QB in the NFL next year. That is a recipe for disaster for him. Hopefully he goes to a team where he can observe and grow for a few years, then take his chance. And please, please ... no Cleveland Browns!
 
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There are so many NFL teams that need QB help that I see them reaching for a QB and drafting them too high. I'm not really sure if Kizer is a first or even a second round QB but I'm sure someone will get over anxious and draft him in the first round. As much as I like the Cleveland Browns I sure hope the either draft 2 first round offensive linemen or trade down. They need quality players not another QB running for his life in Cleveland.
 
Mayock has him ranked 1st among QBs. But the top 3 are usually him, Watson and Trubisky on most boards, in some order. Kizer and Trubisky have the prototypical NFL measurables, while Watson was the most accomplished college QB of the 3.
 
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I tend to think the Browns are unlikely too. They have been burned TOO many times by 1st round QBs, including a prior Domer. I see them trading a pick for a QB as well, although no way is Garoppolo worth a high 1st round pick!!! That is literally insanity. Hue Jackson is a QB guy, so they will get whomever he likes.

It's clear I am predicting Kizer rises and becomes the #1 or #2 QB. Given that, I look more closely at San Francisco (2), Chicago (3) or Buffalo (10). I think it is highly likely Kizer ends up at one of these places.

Niners: Really tough call. New GM with their strategy a mystery. They will have nobody at QB after Kap opts out. So a QB will be a priority. Pretty good history with ND QBs though! I'm not a fan of the current team though, and think Kizer would struggle with them. They are in total rebuild.

Chicago: Natural fit for an ND guy. However, the Bears are also not a good fit. Cutler will be gone, but they have so many other needs. Again, Kizer will struggle.

Bills: This would be my hope for Kizer. Tyrod will either be waived or traded. They must get a QB. They have great weapons on offense, so could give Kizer a good chance.

Obviously, no team that drafts a QB in the 1st round is really setting him up for success (Goff). Kizer will have to grow into his position. I just hope he gets a decent chance. Our last two drafter QBs (Quinn and Clausen) never got a chance. Injuries and opportunity are a total crapshoot.

Who would have picked Dak prescott at last years draft as being the best rookie QB???
I don't think it's insane at all to trade a high first round pick for garrappolo. Who has a better chance of being a franchise player, a quarterback who has studied behind Brady and bellichik for multiple years and has game experience which was impressive, or a first round pick who may very well be a bust
 
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New SI mock draft has him going #3 to Bears. As a Niner fan I hope he goes #2. I dont like Trubisky.
 
draft is a matching of talent/need or need/talent
teams look at immediate gratification nowdays. Developing talent/potential in transients is not 'trending'.
It comes down to whether they can envision DK on the field by year 2.
 
Browns are dumb for passing on Carson wentz in the first place. But I agree kizer would be a good fit in Cleveland. He's used to losing!

Browns have SO MANY NEEDS -- do you really think Wentz would have made any difference last fall with that make-shift OL in Cleveland???
 
Cleveland needs to stop drafting QB's and start drafting O-Linemen. I'm a believer a great line can make an average QB look great. See Ken Dorsey at The U!

Since 2004 the AFC QB in the Super Bowl has been Brady, Ben, or Peyton Manning every year but one when Flacco went. It's a QB driven league, you won't win without one.
 
Since 2004 the AFC QB in the Super Bowl has been Brady, Ben, or Peyton Manning every year but one when Flacco went. It's a QB driven league, you won't win without one.

That's a little skewed by the Patriots dominating the AFC so totally.

It's definitely a QB driven league, but the NFC has shown more of a "balance" between elite QB's and teams with elite defenses and/or run games.
 
That's a little skewed by the Patriots dominating the AFC so totally.

It's definitely a QB driven league, but the NFC has shown more of a "balance" between elite QB's and teams with elite defenses and/or run games.

I mean it is, Brady has been to 7, but Ben has been to 3 and Manning 4. How many times did the pats beat one of those 2 to make the super bowl too. There is a reason why the Steelers never won a Super Bowl between Bradshaw and Ben, despite having an elite defense and running game more often than not.
 
I mean it is, Brady has been to 7, but Ben has been to 3 and Manning 4. How many times did the pats beat one of those 2 to make the super bowl too. There is a reason why the Steelers never won a Super Bowl between Bradshaw and Ben, despite having an elite defense and running game more often than not.

I'm not saying that there is no merit to what you're saying, just that the AFC presents an even more exaggerated version because of how good the Pats are (in all phases of the game)

But you could use the Kapernick 49'ers, the Wilson (rookie) Seahawks, the Manning (now old & terrible) Broncos, etc.

Elite defenses with average (or even bad) QB's have made and won Super Bowls recently
 
Browns have SO MANY NEEDS -- do you really think Wentz would have made any difference last fall with that make-shift OL in Cleveland???
Always starts with the qb. And they have a decent oline. Best left tackle in football. Wentz is a big strong AFC North type of qb. I would have pulled the trigger. Every time they trade back their picks turn into nothing
 

You're getting WAYYYYY ahead of yourself, if you're now convinced that Kizer will be drafted by the 49er's at #2.

It's possible, but it's just as possible (if not more likely) that Kizer drops completely out of the 1st Round.

How well Kizer performs at the Combine, his Pro Day, and the performance of otehr QB's (competition) will be MASSIVE for determining when day he's drafted on
 
Honestly I don't get it. Of the following recent QB's:
Brady Q
Jimmy C
Everette G
Tommy R
DeShone K

The only QB he outperformed would be Tommy, and that might be questionable if we are using W-L records.

Good luck to DeShone though, I hope he goes number 1.
 
Honestly I don't get it. Of the following recent QB's:
Brady Q
Jimmy C
Everette G
Tommy R
DeShone K

The only QB he outperformed would be Tommy, and that might be questionable if we are using W-L records.

Good luck to DeShone though, I hope he goes number 1.

College performance isn't really the key to NFL Draft status......it's NFL projection

Brady, Clausen, and Kizer have the measureables, mechanics, and mentality that can project very well to the NFL.

Golson had some of those, but lacked the height and possibly the mentality. Rees lacked most of the physical tools and "post-snap" mentality.

Think about Dontari Poe. He was 2nd Team All CUSA...but he went in the Top10. Does that mean the CUSA's 2 1st Team DT's should both be Top5 picks??
(no, it's about projection not CFB production)

This is why there are so many comical, terrible busts in the NFL draft...especially at QB
 
You're getting WAYYYYY ahead of yourself, if you're now convinced that Kizer will be drafted by the 49er's at #2.

I think you misunderstood my sentiment of "told ya so". I am not saying he goes #2. I am just pointing out the NFL Draft hype machine that will wildly raise, then lower, then hopefully raise again the draft prospects of Kizer. I knew he would be a HOT button topic in draft discussion (who is the top QB), but I didn't think the headline story in USA Today on March 2 was in the cards!

It's going to be worse than I even thought!

(PS: he will absolutely go 1st round. Probably no the Niners since they said they liked him though!)
 
Kizer's W-L record getting attention in a bad way. I predict a BQ-type fall for him on draft day
 
Honestly I don't get it. Of the following recent QB's:
Brady Q
Jimmy C
Everette G
Tommy R
DeShone K

The only QB he outperformed would be Tommy, and that might be questionable if we are using W-L records.

Good luck to DeShone though, I hope he goes number 1.

The other 4 QB's had at least 3 years of starting experience. Kizer only had 2 and left two years of eligibility on the table. The 2016 debacle was a collective failure. It doesn't all fall on DK, and, for what it's worth, as bad as the 2016 season was for everyone on the team, DK was still voted team MVP (yes, I know, that's still like being named tallest midget... but the coaches still considered DK the best player on the team). Mike Mayock thinks Kizer has the highest ceiling by far of all the top 5 QBs in the draft. I think a lot of draft evaluators are looking beyond what happened in the 2016 season and they see a lot of skill and a lot of potential.
 
Kizer seems to have all the tools ? So I think he will go fairly high, but one never knows, there may be a number of relatively unknown players , whom pro scouts may be very high on ? We will see ?
 
Kizer's W-L record getting attention in a bad way. I predict a BQ-type fall for him on draft day

Let him drop, he will be placed in a better situation if he falls. I don't want him to go to the Browns, Bears, Jets, Bills. He needs a few years of seasoning under some real QB coaches to get the Kelly stain from him and develop into a legitimate star QB in the NFL with a long and prosperous career.
 
Let him drop, he will be placed in a better situation if he falls. I don't want him to go to the Browns, Bears, Jets, Bills. He needs a few years of seasoning under some real QB coaches to get the Kelly stain from him and develop into a legitimate star QB in the NFL with a long and prosperous career.

Who was Tom Bradys QB coach in college? I think it is more what the players mental make up is than the college coaching, IMHO. We will see how Kizer develops. It will be fun.
 
Kizer would be best served to go to a team like the Giants or Patriots where he can sit behind a proven QB who is nearing the end of there career. How much longer will Eli and Tom be playing? (Eli could be around a bit long then Tom) Learn like Aaron Rogers did behind old #4.
 
Kizer would be best served to go to a team like the Giants or Patriots where he can sit behind a proven QB who is nearing the end of there career. How much longer will Eli and Tom be playing? (Eli could be around a bit long then Tom) Learn like Aaron Rogers did behind old #4.

Yep.

I'd say any of these teams would be perfect for that
1. Patriots (Brady) - Not Happening
2. Giants (Eli) - Probably not Happening
3. Cardinals (Palmer) - Very Possible
4. Bress (Saints) - Also Possible
5. Steelers (Rothelsberger) - Unlikely, but Possible
 
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Who was Tom Bradys QB coach in college? I think it is more what the players mental make up is than the college coaching, IMHO. We will see how Kizer develops. It will be fun.

I know who Tom Brady gave credit to his development in the NFL. Charlie Weis, his OC but really, he was his QB coach as well, though not in title.
Brady Quinn under Willingham was bad, but under Weis Good. Clausen yr 1 terrible, by year 3 exceptional. Development of a QB under good coaching shines through by evidence of their production. Matt Cassel 2010, his only good year, OC / QB coach by Weis. With proper coaching, a player can develop into a good/great player, with bad coaching a player will regress and be out of the league quickly, see Brady Quinn/ Clausen or any Browns QB the pass 20 years. I just hope Kizer could fall to a team that will give him time to learn a year or 2 before sending him in with the sharks. The Patriots would be the best place to fall to.
 
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IMHO, the 2016 numbers were not that far off from 2015. The slight decline might have to do with the tremendous loss of Will Fuller and Alize Jones. These people don't know everything.
 
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I'm going to take a wild guess and say that you wanted EG when TR was QB, then MZ when EG was QB, then DK when MZ was QB. Over / under on how far into the season you turn on BW.
 
You're getting WAYYYYY ahead of yourself, if you're now convinced that Kizer will be drafted by the 49er's at #2.

It's possible, but it's just as possible (if not more likely) that Kizer drops completely out of the 1st Round.

How well Kizer performs at the Combine, his Pro Day, and the performance of otehr QB's (competition) will be MASSIVE for determining when day he's drafted on
Decker, in full agreement. His combine performance was typical of his career at ND. Great arm and some great throws mixed with some poor accuracy. His mechanics continue to be an issue, and I think his draft position will largely depend on assessments of how readily these are correctable.
 
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