Every year they list the recruiting rankings of all the starters on the two Super Bowl participants. This year 11 of the 44 were not rated at all coming out of high school. How were that many missed by the " experts " ?
Interesting
- Thread starter echowaker
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Some get missed obviously but in the last 3-4 years with all the internet sites and the massive growth in HS Combines it's harder to get missed.
Have a friend who's an NFL Assistant for over 20 years and he told me awhile back that over 20 % of the players in the league were not from D-1 Programs.
Have a friend who's an NFL Assistant for over 20 years and he told me awhile back that over 20 % of the players in the league were not from D-1 Programs.
Because projecting how an 18yo kid is going to develop in college, let alone the NFL. Is at best imperfect and at worst impossible.
it’s wildly amusing listening to “recruiting gurus” and “message board geniuses” drone on and on about these ridiculous star rankings. When, truth be told, you could sit down with their HS coach for 15 minutes and get a more accurate profile.
I am a million miles from a great talent evaluator, but when Artur Sitowski a bench warmer at IMG Academy, and now at Rutgers, gets the same 4 star rating as Lamar Jackson, the sickest athlete I’ve ever seen, or coached against, you know the whole “projection thing” is kind of a joke.
it’s wildly amusing listening to “recruiting gurus” and “message board geniuses” drone on and on about these ridiculous star rankings. When, truth be told, you could sit down with their HS coach for 15 minutes and get a more accurate profile.
I am a million miles from a great talent evaluator, but when Artur Sitowski a bench warmer at IMG Academy, and now at Rutgers, gets the same 4 star rating as Lamar Jackson, the sickest athlete I’ve ever seen, or coached against, you know the whole “projection thing” is kind of a joke.
Truth be told, if you sit next to most hs coaches, they will hype up their player almost every time. Every kid would be a5 star using that method.
On avg, the recruiting sites do a very good job
I always considered 3* and 4* to be more categories than rankings. They are only a ranking compared to each other.
A lot of them are misses. Some play terrible competition or come from small towns and don’t get a lot of press. Some do not take their own recruitment seriously so they don’t even send tapes. Others are just simply underrated and when they get to college they blow up. Most just have tremendous work ethic and it pays off in the long run and always will make some a superstar. Some of them are underrated because the recruitIng sites suck and place overemphasis on things like height and weight which for many NFL superstars just put a chip on their shoulder. It sounds like this year‘s Heisman Trophy winner was told he was too small many times. The joke is on the haters. Recruiting is a crapshoot. It is very very difficult to gauge potential when most of that potential is solely based on desire to be great. Characteristics like perseverance, grit, mental fortitude, etc. are not measured at all and play no role in star rankings. Talent is a good measuring stick because it matters a lot. But the greatest NFL players in history we’re probably not five star recruits. That’s mostly because the vast majority of recruits are not five star recruits and the fact that most five star kids never end up great or never really had talent to begin with. Dayne Crist vs Tom Brady as recruits for example. It’s a joke.
I personally think the recruiting sites should only give five star rankings to the undeniable top 10 bad ass players. They either give far too many or far too few depending on how you look at it. There are especially way too many quarterbacks ranked as five stars. 99% of them aren’t good enough to start on an NFL team by the time they are done with college. Most won’t even get drafted.
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Didn’t realize nfl recruits kids out of high school? Clemson Ohio state Alabama dominating recruiting stars and dominating on the field.
Yes and a bunch of kids from those programs transfer in Year 1 and 2 and 3.
They basically see what's in front of them and come to the conclusion that " I'm good-----lots of places I can play but this place isn't one of them. "
Nothing wrong with that IMO.
But it doesn't happen very much here for a variety of reasons.
They basically see what's in front of them and come to the conclusion that " I'm good-----lots of places I can play but this place isn't one of them. "
Nothing wrong with that IMO.
But it doesn't happen very much here for a variety of reasons.
Kids don’t stop growing at 18.
But as a reminder,you Are always going to get a large amount of 3 stars and no stars that outperform their rating. The pool of 2-3 stars is just too big. There are only around 350 4-5 star players every year. There are thousands of 2-3 stars every year. It’s a pure numbers game.
But as a reminder,you Are always going to get a large amount of 3 stars and no stars that outperform their rating. The pool of 2-3 stars is just too big. There are only around 350 4-5 star players every year. There are thousands of 2-3 stars every year. It’s a pure numbers game.
You can’t make a systems overview analysis based on a few “misses” examples. Do they exist? Of course. Will they always exist? Almost surely. Are there fewer misses now than before? Looks like it as the recruting powers are getting a larger lion’s share of the top 100 and top 250 recruits and are dominant year in and year out. We’d have to run a T-test to see if there’s a statistically significant difference between the average ranking of recruits on CFP teams, top 5 teams, top 10, top 25, etc. In any case, the chance a team can be regularly competitive against a team with top 50 recruits by “developing diamonds in the rough” on a year by year basis is almost zero now. Maybe if everything comes together just right you‘d have one shot at it every 5 years or so, and then in that one shot, you now have to beat two top four teams which you didn’t have to do in the past.
There’s so much emphasis on getting young kids into camps who then get recruited by either private schools or large wealthy suburban schools where they develop that some unknown kid out in the boonies somewhere just doesn’t happen any ore unless he has an unforeseen massive growth spurt but even then, they find him and funnel him to the right school for developmeant.
