Grad trfr wr to ND

[deadprez3]

Maybe 50 is a bit high (I'm hoping for big year out of Book) but I'm, unfortunately counting on some small injuries to Lenzy and Keys who have been banged up numerous times since they got to South Bend...

40 receptions over 13 games is 3 per game... Because of Skowronek's unique size among ND's WR's (he's the only guy bigger than 6'2 with any experience) and the fact that he's a possession type, I could see that. Chris Finke numbers wouldn't surprise me (although he's a different player). 50 is a touch high, but his back-to-back 45 catch seasons in 2017 and 2018 says that he's quite capable.

Northwestern finished 10-4 and ranked in a season in which this kid was the #2 WR on their team and caught 45 passes. I don't think it's impossible that he recreates that kind of reproduction at ND, with more yardage.

I'll be here to own it if I'm wrong and way off.

At the end of the day stats will be what they will be. Maybe he does catch 50 balls. As you noted, he will be the only viable receiving option that ND will have on the field next year with size (guys like Micah Jones, Robertson, etc should never have been offered a scholarship and will never contribute).

It matters more about the players impact on the game.

I take umbrage with your assertion that this dude is going to replicate anywhere near the impact/production that a 5 star incoming freshman would.

Who would you rather have catch 50 balls for ND next year, a freshman Mike Floyd, Jerry Jeudy, George Pickens, etc or this guy? To say that this guy catching 50 balls will have the same impact on the game as a star receiver is just not accurate in my opinion.

Heck, guys like Bobby Brown and Malcolm Johnson were putting up video game reception numbers (for ND standards at the time) for ND during the "Blarney" offense years; however, those guys were absolute stiffs and had no impact on the game. Teams wanted them to see lots of balls.

Maybe I'm misinterpreting you, but I feel like you're very much over hyping the impact this guy will have in the W column for next year.

He just is not a needle mover or a guy that a defense will need to account for. I frankly can't believe so many words have even been typed about him but its the off season I suppose.

 

[LH24ND]

This is interesting and actually pretty damn exciting if you ask me. Any senior captain with experience and leadership is a bonus for our team next season. Very good news for 2020 season. Having some Ohio State and now Northwestern experience coming in can only diversify and support positive change within the culture of the team! I assume Book is excited and the fact he was respected enough to make captain at NU says he’ll most likely be welcomed with open arms.[/QUOTE

My thoughts exactly. Nothing but positive here.

 

[deadprez3]

Jones has what 300 yards and a couple tds. I expect a healthy Johnson to be in the two deep from day 1. He is a physical WR and most importantly for frosh, he has elite hands and can snatch a ball better than Lenzy or keys.

I think 400-500ish yards .

I agree with your assessment.

That aside, this staff historically has skewed playing time more towards players they feel they can "trust" than a players actual individual talent level.

I personally would start Johnson from Day 1 because as you noted he is a much more natural receiver and a better "snatcher" of the ball than any of the returning receivers. However, I will be pleasantly surprised if he is put in a position to be successful on the field as a freshman

 

[Get Nasty]

I agree with your assessment.

That aside, this staff historically has skewed playing time more towards players they feel they can "trust" than a players actual individual talent level.

I personally would start Johnson from Day 1 because as you noted he is a much more natural receiver and a better "snatcher" of the ball than any of the returning receivers. However, I will be pleasantly surprised if he is put in a position to be successful on the field as a freshman

Yep.... I’m banking on his hands being the key. Kelly has even said he hasn’t fully trusted Lenzy because he has struggled catching the ball at times but is improving.

 

[IrishInOntario]

I'm not saying Jones was a bad player. He has had a roster spot in the NFL so obviously he can play.

However, I don't think simply taking a player's height and weight is an accurate assessment of their physical prowess.

For example, I'm 6'2 and 185 lbs and I guarantee a 6'0 180 lbs Jordan Johnson would easily dispatch me in any strength endeavor we might partake in.

I know a lot of schlubs that are 6'3 225 lbs but they look nothing like a SEC linebacker physically.

Johnson is a vastly better put together player as an incoming freshman than Jones and he compares much more favorably to Austin.

Now I highly doubt he is anywhere near as productive as Jones as a freshman (Austin wasn't either for various reasons up to debate) but if I'm taking one of those two in a street fight its Johnson all day, every day.

A lack of physical prowess will not be a reason why Johnson might not be able to contribute as a freshman.

I don't think Johnson lacks any physical prowess at all. I think he's plenty strong and physically capable for his size. He's been punking really good players all year. All I'm saying is that earlier in the cycle we thought ND was getting a another 6'2 beast. I don't think anyone thought he'd ever be Michael Floyd thick (another 6'3 guy), but they thought he was a big, physical, fast wide receiver. Turns out that he is indeed physical and fast, but not exactly the guy people thought in terms of size and length.

That's not a knock on him at all. Both TJ Jones and Golden Tate were great athletes at their respective sizes. Both also had excellent balls skills in the air, extremely strong hands and incredible compete level, which I think Johnson has as well.

Maybe Johnson has a little Michael Crabtree in him down the road, but right now I would disagree with the Kevin Austin Jr comparison. I think they're similar athletes, but Austin is a full 2 inches taller than Johnson and a full 30lbs heavier... And Austin is completely shredded. None of that is bad weight at all.

We can agree to disagree on this one. I don't think the Jones comparison is a slight at all. #7 was an absolute baller in South Bend. Fast (verified 4.45 speed), physical for his size, extremely athletic and competitive, great hands and incredibly tough and durable. Played through a shoulder that needed surgically repaired and a badly injured back.



JMO.

 

[IrishInOntario]

At the end of the day stats will be what they will be. Maybe he does catch 50 balls. As you noted, he will be the only viable receiving option that ND will have on the field next year with size (guys like Micah Jones, Robertson, etc should never have been offered a scholarship and will never contribute).

It matters more about the players impact on the game.

I take umbrage with your assertion that this dude is going to replicate anywhere near the impact/production that a 5 star incoming freshman would.

Who would you rather have catch 50 balls for ND next year, a freshman Mike Floyd, Jerry Jeudy, George Pickens, etc or this guy? To say that this guy catching 50 balls will have the same impact on the game as a star receiver is just not accurate in my opinion.

Heck, guys like Bobby Brown and Malcolm Johnson were putting up video game reception numbers (for ND standards at the time) for ND during the "Blarney" offense years; however, those guys were absolute stiffs and had no impact on the game. Teams wanted them to see lots of balls.

Maybe I'm misinterpreting you, but I feel like you're very much over hyping the impact this guy will have in the W column for next year.

He just is not a needle mover or a guy that a defense will need to account for. I frankly can't believe so many words have even been typed about him but its the off season I suppose.

If a guy averages 12 yards per catch and catches 40+ balls, what does it matter if he's a senior transfer, or a 5 star freshman? In a 1 year scenario if the numbers add up, it's all the same production for that year.

Now we can argue that by playing this kid you're impacting the potential growth of a younger kid, who could be a beast as a sophomore (when guys really tend to turn it on after getting their feet wet as a freshman), but for one season the chances that you're going to get more production out of a 18 year old, non-early enrolee true freshman (who isn't a 6'3, 200lb man child like George Pickens) over an established, 21-22 year old college senior with 100 catches in two full years of playing and a 6'4, 215lb frame, is very slim.

I'll be happy to eat my crow if I'm wrong, but I think people are expecting a Michael Floyd type freshman season out of Johnson... Floyd was built like a college junior when he was a high school senior. He came to Notre Dame at 6'3, 215+lbs, with what we later found out was legitimate 4.47 speed, 33 inch arms, 9 3/8 inch hands and top notch vertical jump. He was already a grown ass man in an 18 year old body when he had 719 yards receiving as a freshman (ND record), on a team in which he was forced to start and be a key contributor (opposite Golden Tate) right away... I'm willing to bet that Johnson is closer to TJ Jones', production, body type and skill set as a freshman than he is too Floyd's...

Sincerely hope I'm wrong on that point btw...

 

[deadprez3]

If a guy averages 12 yards per catch and catches 40+ balls, what does it matter if he's a senior transfer, or a 5 star freshman? In a 1 year scenario if the numbers add up, it's all the same production for that year.

Now we can argue that by playing this kid you're impacting the potential growth of a younger kid, who could be a beast as a sophomore (when guys really tend to turn it on after getting their feet wet as a freshman), but for one season the chances that you're going to get more production out of a 18 year old, non-early enrolee true freshman (who isn't a 6'3, 200lb man child like George Pickens, over an established, 21 year old college senior with 100 catches in two full years of playing and a 6'4, 215lb frame, is very slim.

I'll be happy to eat my crow if I'm wrong, but I think people are expecting a Michael Floyd type freshman season out of Johnson... Floyd was build like a college junior when he was a high school senior. He came to Notre Dame at 6'3, 215+lbs, with what we later found out was legitimate 4.47 speed, 33 inch arms and 9 3/8 inch hands and top notch vertical jump. He was already a grown ass man in an 18 year old body when he had 719 yards receiving as a freshman, on a team in which he was forced to start and be a key contributor (opposite Golden Tate) right away.

Because the 5 star freshman is going to have some game changing plays mixed into those statistics and be a guy that teams need to account for. He is going to bring a different dynamic to the team that cannot be measured by statistics alone.

To say that this guy will put up similar statistics to what a 5 star freshman might put up and say therefore its the same as having a 5 star freshman receiver getting meaningful playing time is just not a very nuanced discussion.

Kmet and Finke had nearly identical statistics this year. How would you compare the impact that each of those two players had on the season this year? Even conceding the fact that Kmet missed the first few games, it would be very difficult to say that these two even remotely impacted the team's performance on the field this year in a similar manner despite comparable statistics.

Floyd was just a guy to opponents when he caught his first TD against SDSU in 2008. After the MSU game and certainly by the UNC game he was a verifiable game wrecker that teams had to account for.

This incoming transfer is just a warm body that teams will gladly concede a few 12 yard catches a game to. Please don't ever again say that him coming in for a year is the same as a 5 star freshman wide receiver playing in his freshman year. Not all yards are created equal.

As for Johnson, I'm not sure what your point was then highlighting that he was 6'0 180 lbs. If a dude can play, he can play. Regardless of size, especially at the WR position.

CeeDee Lamb is 6'2 190 lbs that dude absolutely overwhelms defenders with his physicality and aggressiveness. Then take a guy like Boykin. He might be 6'4 220 but he in no way played like a guy that size at ND. He was very much a finesse player that rarely was going to fight through a defender for a 50/50 ball or exhibit anywhere near the catch radius that he should have. Some players can just do things physically that others can or cannot regardless of their size or lack thereof.

You can compare Johnson to Jones as freshman if you wish. But I don't care what the physical measureables are. Its simple a comparison I would not make.

 

[Golson5]

25 to 30 catches its where the transfer should be at next year.

If he catches 50, you are saying hes basically our number 1 guy. That would not be a good sign.

He should be a rotational player to spell more talented guys and play his role.

25 to 30 catches

 

[IrishInOntario]

Because the 5 star freshman is going to have some game changing plays mixed into those statistics and be a guy that teams need to account for. He is going to bring a different dynamic to the team that cannot be measured by statistics alone.

To say that this guy will put up similar statistics to what a 5 star freshman might put up and say therefore its the same as having a 5 star freshman receiver getting meaningful playing time is just not a very nuanced discussion.

Kmet and Finke had nearly identical statistics this year. How would you compare the impact that each of those two players had on the season this year? Even conceding the fact that Kmet missed the first few games, it would be very difficult to say that these two even remotely impacted the team's performance on the field this year in a similar manner despite comparable statistics.

Floyd was just a guy to opponents when he caught his first TD against SDSU in 2008. After the MSU game and certainly by the UNC game he was a verifiable game wrecker that teams had to account for.

This incoming transfer is just a warm body that teams will gladly concede a few 12 yard catches a game to. Please don't ever again say that him coming in for a year is the same as a 5 star freshman wide receiver playing in his freshman year. Not all yards are created equal.

As for Johnson, I'm not sure what your point was then highlighting that he was 6'0 180 lbs. If a dude can play, he can play. Regardless of size, especially at the WR position.

CeeDee Lamb is 6'2 190 lbs that dude absolutely overwhelms defenders with his physicality and aggressiveness. Then take a guy like Boykin. He might be 6'4 220 but he in no way played like a guy that size at ND. He was very much a finesse player that rarely was going to fight through a defender for a 50/50 ball or exhibit anywhere near the catch radius that he should have. Some players can just do things physically that others can or cannot regardless of their size or lack thereof.

You can compare Johnson to Jones as freshman if you wish. But I don't care what the physical measureables are. Its simple a comparison I would not make.

Production is production, regardless of how you think it looks.

If player A is a 5 star freshman and has 40 receptions for 500 yards and 5 TDs, on the same or similar number of targets as player B...

And

Player B is a 5th year senior and has 40 receptions for 500 yards and 5 TDs, on the same or similar number of targets as player B....

It's the same scoring production.

Comparing a slot receiver and a tight end in terms of impact on the game is silly because a tight end will have a lot more blocking responsibilities that can impact a game. That said, I never compared Finke and Kmet, although Chris averaged 1 fewer yard per reception than Kmet and has been a key player on 3rd down for a couple years. Their actual impact wasn't far off, although Kmet certainly gets the edge.

Also, your "don't ever say again" comment regarding a grad transfer and a 5 star freshman over a 1 year span, is silly... Right from the beginning it assumes that all 5 star players are made equally or at least better than their competition. Exactly the opposite of what you were trying to say regarding Lamb vs Boykin.

Duval Kamara (5 Star, #31 nationally)
Freshman season at ND
23 receptions
218 yards receiving
9.4 yards per catch
1 TD

Justin Shorter (5 star, #8 nationally)
Freshman season at Penn State
12 receptions
137 yards receiving
11.4 yards per catch
0 TD

Jadon Haselwood (5 star, #19 nationally)
Freshman season at Oklahoma
19 receptions
272 yards
14.0 yards per catch
1 TD

Donovan Peoples-Jones (5 star, #12 nationally)
Freshman season at Michigan
22 receptions
277 yards receiving
12.2 yards per catch
0 TD

Mecole Hardman (5 star, #12 nationally)
Freshman season at Georgia
Redshirted

George Campbell (5 star, #19 nationally)
Freshman season at Florida State
3 receptions
42 yards
14 yards per catch
0 TD

Those are literally a couple names off the top of my head. I can find 30 or 40 more (with ease) over the past 15 years, that were highly decorated 5 stars, all different sizes, strengths and speeds, who struggled mightily to make big impacts on programs as freshman receivers.

I would argue that you actually have a better chance of a player that has proven he can make an impact in a power 5 conference, doing so over the majority of true freshman receivers, regardless of where they are ranked coming out of high school. It's an enormous jump to college.

It's not like Skowronek was playing in the MAC and caught 45 balls, averaging 7 yards per catch. He played in the Big 10 and averaged 13 yards per catch and 4 TDs, while catching 90 passes in the 2017 and 2018 seasons.

I'm curious as the why you think Skowronek's 13.0 yard catch average (very good) on 90 balls would be different than Johnson having the same per catch average?

 

[IrishInOntario]

25 to 30 catches its where the transfer should be at next year.

If he catches 50, you are saying hes basically our number 1 guy. That would not be a good sign.

He should be a rotational player to spell more talented guys and play his role.

25 to 30 catches

I'm in the 40-50 range. I don't think ND will have a true #1 guy. I think they'll have a handful of #2's and #3's including this guy. In fact, Cole Kmet, at tight end, would be my bet as the leading pass catcher if he did in fact return.

Claypool caught 66 balls this year as the #1 guy. Both Kmet and Fink would have been over 50 (or damn near it) had they not missed time to injury. They had 43 and 41 catches each, despite missing time.

IMO, there is room for...

Kmet: 50
Austin: 40-50
Skowronek: 40-50
Lenzy: 30 (plus carries and punt / kick returns)
Johnson: 15-25

That's still going to leave 65-90 receptions for everyone else. I'm expecting in the neighbourhood of 270 completions this year. I doubt Ian Book has an 8-25 Michigan game again, and I think he'll play better tha the did for the first half of 2019.

Plenty of balls to go around.

 

[Golson5]

I'm in the 40-50 range. I don't think ND will have a true #1 guy. I think they'll have a handful of #2's and #3's including this guy. In fact, Cole Kmet, at tight end, would be my bet as the leading pass catcher if he did in fact return.

Claypool caught 66 balls this year as the #1 guy. Both Kmet and Fink would have been over 50 (or damn near it) had they not missed time to injury. They had 43 and 41 catches each, despite missing time.

IMO, there is room for...

Kmet: 50
Austin: 40-50
Skowronek: 40-50
Lenzy: 30 (plus carries and punt / kick returns)
Johnson: 15-25

That's still going to leave 65-90 receptions for everyone else. I'm expecting in the neighbourhood of 270 completions this year. I doubt Ian Book has an 8-25 Michigan game again, and I think he'll play better tha the did for the first half of 2019.

Plenty of balls to go around.

Tremble will be a big part of the offense you are forgetting. Id expect in terms of catches our pecking order to be

Kmet
Austin
Tremble
Lenzy

After that, we'll see. I expect those 4 to be the top options with other players filling in after. Depends on the development if the other guys. But those 4 will be Books top options imo

 

[Get Nasty]

I agree with deadprez here because this new cat will never once get a double, game planned against, or scare opposing defenses. Johnson has that potential, Austin does. Chase had it this year. 50 catches vs a double team or safety high vs 50 catches when covered by the oppositions worst corner is not created equal.

chase this year vs Boykin last year are two completely different successful seasons. Chase had safety help over the top a ton, Boykin almost never did.

 

[IrishInOntario]

I agree with deadprez here because this new cat will never once get a double, game planned against, or scare opposing defenses. Johnson has that potential, Austin does. Chase had it this year. 50 catches vs a double team or safety high vs 50 catches when covered by the oppositions worst corner is not created equal.

chase this year vs Boykin last year are two completely different successful seasons. Chase had safety help over the top a ton, Boykin almost never did.

Skowronek averaged 14.5 yards per catch (45 receptions) in 2017 and 12.5 yards per catch (45 receptions) in 2018.

Those averages are no joke in terms of big play viability. To put it into context of what kind of downfield threat he his, Boykin averaged the same 14.6 yards per catch in 2018 that Skowronek did in 2017, when he caught 54 balls for 803 yards, against the same caliber of competition.

Nobody is claiming that Skowronek is Chase Claypool, but if he can be near Miles Boykin (which he has produced at a similar clip as in the past), with an improved Ian Book (from when he was passing to Boykin), why not be excited about that?... He doesn't have to be the #1 WR (I would hope that he isn't). But there is no shame in having a guy that was on NFL Draft boards at the end of 2018 as your #2 or #3 guy as he plays for an NFL contract. If he comes back strong for the ankle injury, that should equate to 40-50 catches, similar to what Kmet and Finke caught this year.

Just for context, before Skowronek was hurt early in 2019, Athlon ranked him as Northwestern's #2 NFL prospect, behind only Paddy Fisher. That's coming from a team that won 10 games the previous season and finished ranked. You combine that with the fact that he was on the NFL's radar and had back-to-back years of quality production in the power 5... I think he's going to be just fine. I'm not seeing another Freddie Canteen or Cam Smith here.

 

[deadprez3]

Production is production, regardless of how you think it looks.

If player A is a 5 star freshman and has 40 receptions for 500 yards and 5 TDs, on the same or similar number of targets as player B...

And

Player B is a 5th year senior and has 40 receptions for 500 yards and 5 TDs, on the same or similar number of targets as player B....

It's the same scoring production.

Comparing a slot receiver and a tight end in terms of impact on the game is silly because a tight end will have a lot more blocking responsibilities that can impact a game. That said, I never compared Finke and Kmet, although Chris averaged 1 fewer yard per reception than Kmet and has been a key player on 3rd down for a couple years. Their actual impact wasn't far off, although Kmet certainly gets the edge.

Also, your "don't ever say again" comment regarding a grad transfer and a 5 star freshman over a 1 year span, is silly... Right from the beginning it assumes that all 5 star players are made equally or at least better than their competition. Exactly the opposite of what you were trying to say regarding Lamb vs Boykin.

Duval Kamara (5 Star, #31 nationally)
Freshman season at ND
23 receptions
218 yards receiving
9.4 yards per catch
1 TD

Justin Shorter (5 star, #8 nationally)
Freshman season at Penn State
12 receptions
137 yards receiving
11.4 yards per catch
0 TD

Jadon Haselwood (5 star, #19 nationally)
Freshman season at Oklahoma
19 receptions
272 yards
14.0 yards per catch
1 TD

Donovan Peoples-Jones (5 star, #12 nationally)
Freshman season at Michigan
22 receptions
277 yards receiving
12.2 yards per catch
0 TD

Mecole Hardman (5 star, #12 nationally)
Freshman season at Georgia
Redshirted

George Campbell (5 star, #19 nationally)
Freshman season at Florida State
3 receptions
42 yards
14 yards per catch
0 TD

Those are literally a couple names off the top of my head. I can find 30 or 40 more (with ease) over the past 15 years, that were highly decorated 5 stars, all different sizes, strengths and speeds, who struggled mightily to make big impacts on programs as freshman receivers.

I would argue that you actually have a better chance of a player that has proven he can make an impact in a power 5 conference, doing so over the majority of true freshman receivers, regardless of where they are ranked coming out of high school. It's an enormous jump to college.

It's not like Skowronek was playing in the MAC and caught 45 balls, averaging 7 yards per catch. He played in the Big 10 and averaged 13 yards per catch and 4 TDs, while catching 90 passes in the 2017 and 2018 seasons.

I'm curious as the why you think Skowronek's 13.0 yard catch average (very good) on 90 balls would be different than Johnson having the same per catch average?

You're wanting it both ways.

First you say that production is production but then you're making the caveat that two players production are not the same due to playing different positions. Either production is production with no caveats or there is more nuance associated with the impact a player will have than mere statistics. You can't have it both ways.

Also, throwing in Kmets blocking is a non sequitur when discussing receptions and receiving yards under your framework argument that "production is production".

Either you feel that Kmet and Finke had similar impacts on ND's season because "production is production" or you are willing to admit that a players impact on the field is a little more nuanced than what their final statistics show.

Also, if you feel that production is production, then you may as well have just said that this incoming player will catch X passes for Y yards. Why did you even make the comparison to a 5 star freshman WR? Especially when in your most recent post you started listing a handful of 5 star receivers that had various levels of production. You are essentially now refuting your own original point that I am currently refuting.

 

[Golson5]

Skowronek averaged 14.5 yards per catch (45 receptions) in 2017 and 12.5 yards per catch (45 receptions) in 2018.

Those averages are no joke in terms of big play viability. To put it into context of what kind of downfield threat he his, Boykin averaged the same 14.6 yards per catch in 2018 that Skowronek did in 2017, when he caught 54 balls for 803 yards, against the same caliber of competition.

Nobody is claiming that Skowronek is Chase Claypool, but if he can be near Miles Boykin (which he has produced at a similar clip as in the past), with an improved Ian Book (from when he was passing to Boykin), why not be excited about that?

Because he doesn't look like a wide receiver that should be playing big minutes at a top 10 program like Notre Dame.

If he does it would not be a great sign. It means our young guys arent ready for primetime or they simply aren't as good as we had hoped.

He may have been a nice player at Northwestern. But he should not be a central cog at a top 10 team.

I hope he does well but if he's catching 50 balls that isn't a good sign for us.

 

[stu4don]

He is now our most experienced returning WR -- (none of our returning receivers had more than 11 receptions this year!)

Meanwhile, I just read that down in San Antonio, Jordan Johnson is receiving Keenan Allen comparisons! Nice one-handed grab.

Look, three years ago St. Brown jumped and we were worried we had no one.
Then Boykin showed up. When he graduated there were still questions about Chase.
Then Chase had one of the best years as a WR in the kelly era.

I think Kelly and his coaches have done a great job in the transfer portal this year.

Anybody else want one more???? A CB, maybe? That would be the capper!

 

[echowaker]

Because he doesn't look like a wide receiver that should be playing big minutes at a top 10 program like Notre Dame.

If he does it would not be a great sign. It means our young guys arent ready for primetime or they simply aren't as good as we had hoped.

He may have been a nice player at Northwestern. But he should not be a central cog at a top 10 team.

I hope he does well but if he's catching 50 balls that isn't a good sign for us.

i'm guessing the staff has a pretty good idea of what he's capable of and how he fits.

 

[IrishInOntario]

You're wanting it both ways.

First you say that production is production but then you're making the caveat that two players production are not the same due to playing different positions. Either production is production with no caveats or there is more nuance associated with the impact a player will have than mere statistics. You can't have it both ways.

Also, throwing in Kmets blocking is a non sequitur when discussing receptions and receiving yards under your framework argument that "production is production".

Either you feel that Kmet and Finke had similar impacts on ND's season because "production is production" or you are willing to admit that a players impact on the field is a little more nuanced than what their final statistics show.

Also, if you feel that production is production, then you may as well have just said that this incoming player will catch X passes for Y yards. Why did you even make the comparison to a 5 star freshman WR? Especially when in your most recent post you started listing a handful of 5 star receivers that had various levels of production. You are essentially now refuting your own original point that I am currently refuting.

I'm saying that you can more adequately compare two receivers to each other than you can a tight end and a slot receiver. That's why I made the comparison to Boykin, a guy who actually played the same position. Therefore, Skowronek and Finke would be better compared (although still not the same) to one another than Kmet and Skowronek, or even Finke and Skowronek. I agreed with you that Kmet is more valuable than Finke, regardless of how close their numbers are. Kmet's blocking in the run game adds to his overall team value, but he serves a different role than a receiver does, even though half his job is catching passes... So yes Kmet is more valuable than Finke. An elite tight end is going to be more valuable than a slot receiver probably 90% of the time, because he can replace said player on the field, give you the same type of production (even if it looks different) in the passing game, and in theory, should be a much better blocker.

Now, a slot receiver and a detached tight end often share a position, or compliment each other in opposite slots. That's why, although it's not truly a 1 for 1 comparison, you can evaluate their effectiveness within the personnel packages and scheme that see them occupy the same area of the field... Skowronek is an outside receiver. He plays neither of the positions occupied by Finke or Kmet and serves an entirely different role... So while I think it's hard to compare Finke and Kmet, it's even harder to compare Skowronek to either of them in terms of impact. They do wildly different jobs.

Now back to my "production is production" argument. That's true, with the caveat that clearly production can be measured differently if we're going to compare apples-to-oranges... A split TE to a boundary WR for example. Which is why I'm quicker to compare Skowronek to Boykin in 2018 or Johnson in 2020... Because they all play the same position.

You can ABSOLUTELY compare the production between Johnson (or a 5 star WR) and Skowronek, because they play the same, or a very similar position and role. They're pass catchers through-and-through. My comparison to a 5 star freshman came from my research, which found that over 10-15 years, out of all freshman 5 star WRs in college, they average in the neighbourhood of 400-500 yards receiving, 12-14 yards per catch and 4-5 TD's, which is exactly what I'm expecting out of Ben... For projection purposes I made that 1 year comparison.

 

[IrishInOntario]

Because he doesn't look like a wide receiver that should be playing big minutes at a top 10 program like Notre Dame.

If he does it would not be a great sign. It means our young guys arent ready for primetime or they simply aren't as good as we had hoped.

He may have been a nice player at Northwestern. But he should not be a central cog at a top 10 team.

I hope he does well but if he's catching 50 balls that isn't a good sign for us.

I'm just wondering what the difference is between 14.5 yards per catch playing in the Big 10, or playing at Notre Dame? Similar competition... In fact, you can argue that he'll have more freedom to make plays in South Bend because there will be more pass catching talent around him and teams can't double cover him anymore as the #1 receiving threat, surrounded by mediocre talent like he was at Northwestern.

 

[d1042]

love the throwback ‘name’ !

 

[echowaker]

I'm just wondering what the difference is between 14.5 yards per catch playing in the Big 10, or playing at Notre Dame? Similar competition... In fact, you can argue that he'll have more freedom to make plays in South Bend because there will be more pass catching talent around him and teams can't double cover him anymore as the #1 receiving threat, surrounded by mediocre talent like he was at Northwestern.

exactly, he just got more valuable. he also brings experience and depth to a position that sorely needs it.

 

[Golson5]

i'm guessing the staff has a pretty good idea of what he's capable of and how he fits.

Yeah we dont know how they view him.

Do they view him as IIO does, catching 50 balls as our number 1

Or as I do, 30 catches as our number 3 or 4 wr.

They could view him as either. We dont know which one

 

[TheSodFather]

Yeah we dont know how they view him.

Do they view him as IIO does, catching 50 balls as our number 1

Or as I do, 30 catches as our number 3 or 4 wr.

They could view him as either. We dont know which one

He is a guy who can be relied to run the proper route and be where he is supposed to be. If talent makes the jump that could be the bench.

Confused by comparing him to the impact of 5* talent? Some are really selling that concept hard in this thread for whatever reason?

 

[Golson5]

I'm just wondering what the difference is between 14.5 yards per catch playing in the Big 10, or playing at Notre Dame? Similar competition... In fact, you can argue that he'll have more freedom to make plays in South Bend because there will be more pass catching talent around him and teams can't double cover him anymore as the #1 receiving threat, surrounded by mediocre talent like he was at Northwestern.

Because he was their number 1 guy. Hes a good player. Someone has to be number 1 at Northwestern and if you are you're gonna get balls thrown to you.

Now put him on OSU. What is he, their number 5 or 6 guy. Probably catches 15 to 20 there. Is he a worse player all of a sudden, No. Just there are better players in front of him. We are not OSU, but he should not be our number 1 guy.

Its like in basketball. Kevin Love and Chris Bosh etc. When you are the number 1 guy on a bad team you put up huge numbers 26 and 13. Then you go to a more talented team, you dont become worse, but guys are better than you now. So your numbers drop to 17 and 10.

Hes a fine player. Shouldnt be a top guy on a top 10 team.

 

[echowaker]

Yeah we dont know how they view him.

Do they view him as IIO does, catching 50 balls as our number 1

Or as I do, 30 catches as our number 3 or 4 wr.

They could view him as either. We dont know which one

i think it's a great addition.

 

[Golson5]

He is a guy who can be relied to run the proper route and be where he is supposed to be. If talent makes the jump that could be the bench.

Confused by comparing him to the impact of 5* talent? Some are really selling that concept hard in this thread for whatever reason?

Thats what I expect. A reliable player.

 

[Golson5]

i think it's a great addition.

Im not saying its not

 

[echowaker]

Thats what I expect. A reliable player.

exactly and if he catches 50 balls all the better. i don't care who catches them.

 

[NotreDame du Lac]

If a guy averages 12 yards per catch and catches 40+ balls, what does it matter if he's a senior transfer, or a 5 star freshman? In a 1 year scenario if the numbers add up, it's all the same production for that year.

Now we can argue that by playing this kid you're impacting the potential growth of a younger kid, who could be a beast as a sophomore (when guys really tend to turn it on after getting their feet wet as a freshman), but for one season the chances that you're going to get more production out of a 18 year old, non-early enrolee true freshman (who isn't a 6'3, 200lb man child like George Pickens) over an established, 21-22 year old college senior with 100 catches in two full years of playing and a 6'4, 215lb frame, is very slim.

I'll be happy to eat my crow if I'm wrong, but I think people are expecting a Michael Floyd type freshman season out of Johnson... Floyd was built like a college junior when he was a high school senior. He came to Notre Dame at 6'3, 215+lbs, with what we later found out was legitimate 4.47 speed, 33 inch arms, 9 3/8 inch hands and top notch vertical jump. He was already a grown ass man in an 18 year old body when he had 719 yards receiving as a freshman (ND record), on a team in which he was forced to start and be a key contributor (opposite Golden Tate) right away... I'm willing to bet that Johnson is closer to TJ Jones', production, body type and skill set as a freshman than he is too Floyd's...

Sincerely hope I'm wrong on that point btw...

Not all five stars are created equal

 

[IrishInOntario]

Not all five stars are created equal

We go on to discuss that as you read through the thread.

 

[stu4don]

We just lost 'the' warrior-leader of the 2020 team in Gilman. A two star recruit from.... Navy? We need mature leaders with experience. Like Chase, like Jones. Finke. Gilman was last year's Q. He just set the tone for the whole team. I imagine there were people here bitching that he wouldn't play at OSU. Who cares? He helped get us to 22-3. Same with Drew White -- people laughed when he started last year vs, Navy and he just goes out and does his job. Kid is going to surprise people and play in the NFL some day.

Book will be a 5th year leader. Now we have another one. We'll also have two 5th years on the d-line. And a 6th year player at CB. Hopefully these guys -- with Wu, White, even Hamilton --will set the tone. Experience with some exciting young talent = wins!

 

[IrishInOntario]

Because he was their number 1 guy. Hes a good player. Someone has to be number 1 at Northwestern and if you are you're gonna get balls thrown to you.

Now put him on OSU. What is he, their number 5 or 6 guy. Probably catches 15 to 20 there. Is he a worse player all of a sudden, No. Just there are better players in front of him. We are not OSU, but he should not be our number 1 guy.

Its like in basketball. Kevin Love and Chris Bosh etc. When you are the number 1 guy on a bad team you put up huge numbers 26 and 13. Then you go to a more talented team, you dont become worse, but guys are better than you now. So your numbers drop to 17 and 10.

Hes a fine player. Shouldnt be a top guy on a top 10 team.

Actually, when he put up 14.5 yards per catch in 2017 he wasn't their #1 guy.

Flynn Nagel was their #1 receiver. He had 68 receptions, 780 yards and averaged 11.5 yards per catch. Skowronek was his #2 guy that year and still managed to be highly productive without the lion's share of the targets and opportunities for receptions.

That's one of the factors that actually makes me more excited about him. He's shown the ability to be impactful, without being a target monster. At Notre Dame he's more of a #2 or #3 guy in terms of receptions or yards. You'd hope somebody will step up and be the #1.

Also, the Ohio State analogy is fine, if Notre Dame had even half the talent they have at WR. Hell, if Notre Dame had 1/3 of the recruited talent they do on their depth chart, I would be teased silly. Notre Dame's depth of talent is nowhere near what Ohio State's is. That's why I'm more than happy to take a guy who has proven he can do damage in a power 5 league, on a 10 win team. If Kmet goes to the Draft, ND has what 30-35 career receptions returning next year in their receiving core? You're not going to get 4 guys to step up simultaneously, out of thin air. I'll take the guy who has produced liked a #2 WR twice in his 3 years playing.

Also, I agree with what Stu talked about above. The 2020 roster is primed for another run at the playoffs, but is devoid of a senior wide receiver who is going to be a contributor. A guy that was a captain at another power 5 school is going to be a welcomed leadership addition to that group. So his intangibles might be as valuable as his actual production.

 

[TheSodFather]

Actually, when he put up 14.5 yards per catch in 2017 he wasn't their #1 guy.

Flynn Nagel was their #1 receiver. He had 6 receptions, 780 yards and averaged 11.5 yards per catch. Skowronek was his #2 guy that year and still fmmanaged to be highly productive without the lion's share of the targets and opportunities for receptions.

That's one of the factors that actually makes me more excited about him. He's shown the ability to be impactful, without being a target monster. At Notre Dame he's more of a #2 or #3 guy in terms of receptions or yards. You'd hope somebody will step up and be the #1.

Also, the Ohio State analogy is fine, if Notre Dame has even half the talent they 2 at WR. Hell, if Notre Dame has a 1/3 of the recruited talent they do on their depth chart, I would be teased silly. Notre Dame's depth of talent is nowhere near what Ohio State's is. That's why I'm more than happy to take a guy who has proven he can do damage in a power 5 league. If Kmet goes to the Draft, ND has was 30-35 career receptions returning next year in their receiving core? You're not going to get 4 guys to step up simultaneously, out of thin air. I'll take the guy who has produced liked a #2 WR twice in his 3 years playing.

Also, I agree with what Stu talked about above. The 2020 roster is primed for another run at the playoffs, but is devoid of a senior wide receiver who is going to play. A guy that was a captain at another power 5 school is going to be a welcomed leadership addition to that group. So his intangibles might be as valuable as his actual production.

?

 

[IrishInOntario]

?

Thanks man. I edited it for you. 68 receptions.

 

[NotreDame du Lac]

Actually, when he put up 14.5 yards per catch in 2017 he wasn't their #1 guy.

Flynn Nagel was their #1 receiver. He had 68 receptions, 780 yards and averaged 11.5 yards per catch. Skowronek was his #2 guy that year and still managed to be highly productive without the lion's share of the targets and opportunities for receptions.

That's one of the factors that actually makes me more excited about him. He's shown the ability to be impactful, without being a target monster. At Notre Dame he's more of a #2 or #3 guy in terms of receptions or yards. You'd hope somebody will step up and be the #1.

Also, the Ohio State analogy is fine, if Notre Dame had even half the talent they have at WR. Hell, if Notre Dame had 1/3 of the recruited talent they do on their depth chart, I would be teased silly. Notre Dame's depth of talent is nowhere near what Ohio State's is. That's why I'm more than happy to take a guy who has proven he can do damage in a power 5 league, on a 10 win team. If Kmet goes to the Draft, ND has what 30-35 career receptions returning next year in their receiving core? You're not going to get 4 guys to step up simultaneously, out of thin air. I'll take the guy who has produced liked a #2 WR twice in his 3 years playing.

Also, I agree with what Stu talked about above. The 2020 roster is primed for another run at the playoffs, but is devoid of a senior wide receiver who is going to be a contributor. A guy that was a captain at another power 5 school is going to be a welcomed leadership addition to that group. So his intangibles might be as valuable as his actual production.

And Ohio State still lost to Clemson despite stellar coaching and way more talent. What does that say about our chances of winning a championship? Serious question!

 

[IrishInOntario]

And Ohio State still lost to Clemson despite stellar coaching and way more talent. What does that say about our chances of winning a championship? Serious question!

Clemson's WR group is just as bonkers...

Tee Higgins (5 star, #19 nationally)
Derion Kendrick (5 star, #26 nationally)
Justyn Ross (4 star, #45 nationally)
Frank Ladson (4 star, #39 nationally)
Joe Ngata (4 star, #52 nationally)
Amari Rodgers (4 star, #117 nationally)

Those are the highlights of the receiving core that comprises the 4 classes that are about to play for the National Championship against LSU.

 

[Get Nasty]

Skowronek averaged 14.5 yards per catch (45 receptions) in 2017 and 12.5 yards per catch (45 receptions) in 2018.

Those averages are no joke in terms of big play viability. To put it into context of what kind of downfield threat he his, Boykin averaged the same 14.6 yards per catch in 2018 that Skowronek did in 2017, when he caught 54 balls for 803 yards, against the same caliber of competition.

Nobody is claiming that Skowronek is Chase Claypool, but if he can be near Miles Boykin (which he has produced at a similar clip as in the past), with an improved Ian Book (from when he was passing to Boykin), why not be excited about that?... He doesn't have to be the #1 WR (I would hope that he isn't). But there is no shame in having a guy that was on NFL Draft boards at the end of 2018 as your #2 or #3 guy as he plays for an NFL contract. If he comes back strong for the ankle injury, that should equate to 40-50 catches, similar to what Kmet and Finke caught this year.

Just for context, before Skowronek was hurt early in 2019, Athlon ranked him as Northwestern's #2 NFL prospect, behind only Paddy Fisher. That's coming from a team that won 10 games the previous season and finished ranked. You combine that with the fact that he was on the NFL's radar and had back-to-back years of quality production in the power 5... I think he's going to be just fine. I'm not seeing another Freddie Canteen or Cam Smith here.

I agree he can be Boykin ish. I thought and think Boykin was overrated with the lack of coverage he was getting. He made big catches no doubt, but with his size and measurable a he should have been dominant with claypool opposite.
Ben can be solid but you need someone opposite to gobble up the attention like Austin or maybe even Johnson.

 

[IrishInOntario]

I agree he can be Boykin ish. I thought and think Boykin was overrated with the lack of coverage he was getting. He made big catches no doubt, but with his size and measurable a he should have been dominant with claypool opposite.
Ben can be solid but you need someone opposite to gobble up the attention like Austin or maybe even Johnson.

Why not have Austin, Lenzy or Johnson, Kmet or Temble and Skowronek on the field at the same time creating coverage issues? He's just going to to be one piece of a bigger puzzle. All they need him to do is be consistent as a possession guy on third down, catch the ball when Book throws it to him, and make some of the difficult high pointing end zone catches he's become known for.

Corey Robinson might actually be a nice comparison. They were both listed at the same 6'4, 215lbs. In Robinson's final season he had 40 catches at ND, 539 yards and 5 touchdowns. He averaged 13.4 yards per catch and was the #3 WR that season behind Will Fuller who had 76 receptions and Chris Brown who had 40 receptions of his own. Ben Koyack had 30 receptions, CJ Prosise had 29 receptions and Amir Calisle had 23 receptions, among guys that caught 20+ balls for that squad. Golson and Zaire completed a combined 277 passes that season, which is right in line with the 270 completed passes I'm projecting in 2020.

 

[IrishInOntario]

I just got more confident about my prediction

 

[mbd11]

Good pickup. Should replace Claypool as a big WR target for Book.