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Does anybody else get really exasperated with the fact that ND refuses to dance with the elite 4 & 5 star talent?

There’s a lot going on here but I’ll address a few. We’ve had one Heisman winner since we’ve gone to the moon. Not sure 7 heismans mean anything in 2023.

You’re correct. Clausen and Crist came because Weis coached Brady. Clausen was great but was he worth the Weis debacle? Probably not.

You speak about ND’s recruiting as if they’ve made zero adjustments in 50 years. There is zero proof that ND hasn’t adjusted at all. We’re not going to pay high school kids or lower academic standards further than they already are lowered for football players.

You speak about young energy like we don’t have Marcus Freeman and Chad Bowden (who recruits love) spearheading recruiting?

You haven’t acknowledged that in 2023 ND may not be the most attractive to many top recruits due to the reasons I mentioned in my previous post. It’s like you don’t understand why a 18 year old may want to go to Southern Cal over ND in our social media driven world.
I debated whether to respond to this because it doesn't really introduce anything new to the conversation or counter any points i haven't made on the topic already but i'll bite.

Weis recruited three top 5 classes in a row. I highlighted the QBs because those guys were two of the most recruited guys at the most coveted position in the sport and secured their LOIs in back to back years. He also recruited 5 star RBs, WRs, TEs, LBs, and DLs and plenty of top 100 high 4 star talent to support them. If he could do it back with a losing record during the height of the ESPN/BCS era, somebody should be able to do it at ND in 2023 and beyond.

Weis recruited top classes in the face of all the same ad nauseum excuses ND fans love to give to excuse away present day mediocre recruiting (e.g. midwest, small campus, ugly chicks, have to go to class, bad weather, etc.)

ND has recruited only 1 top 5 class in the last 15 years (since the prime of the Weis era). They have not adjusted.

When I talk about young energy, i mean new energy, forward energy, it doesn't necessarily have to be age. We need new perspectives on building and marketing the program. We need leadership that resonates with 17 year olds in the year 2023. Leadership all the way up the hierarchy not just the head coach (who is bashing his head against the wall to fight archaic policies at ND to recruit the country's best talent).

Everything about NDs message and culture all the way up the university food chain is out of touch with the present, and it's elitist, and ineffectual. THAT has got to change.
 
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I debated whether to respond to this because it doesn't really introduce anything new to the conversation or counter any points i haven't made on the topic already but i'll bite.

Weis recruited three top 5 classes in a row. I highlighted the QBs because those guys were two of the most recruited guys at the most coveted position in the sport and secured their LOIs in back to back years. He also recruited 5 star RBs, WRs, TEs, LBs, DLs, etc. when he wasn't locking up THE best prospects at their position he was securing plenty of high 4 star/top 100 type talent across the board and a number of positions. If he could do it back in 2007 with a losing record no less, during the height of the ESPN/BCS era then why can't it be done in 2023?

ND has recruited only 1 top 5 class in the last 15 years (since the prime of the Weis era).

When I talk about young energy, i mean new energy, forward energy, it doesn't necessarily have to be age. We need new perspectives on building and marketing the program. We need leadership that resonates with 17 year olds in the year 2023. Leadership all the way up the hierarchy not just the head coach (who is bashing his head in the wall to fight archaic policies at ND to recruit the country's best talent). Everything about NDs leadership philosophy is out of touch, elitist, and ineffectual. THAT has got to change.
You present your argument like a 7 year old. You claim over and over and over that your are right. Then when someone proves you wrong, you claim that wasn't your argument at all and that something else was your argument. Your thought processes are sadly lacking.
 
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None of these guys are 5 star recruits and all of them committed anywhere from months to years in advance of signing day.

All of the big time modern powers winning in recruiting will fight for a 5 star down to the last day of their commitment all the way up to the last minute of signing day. They even fight for guys who are committed elsewhere all the way up to signing day. That is what it takes to close on those guys in this environment.

ND doesn't fight for these kids. They think they are better than them or can win without them or something (despite all the evidence to the contrary). It's ignorance/arrogance at its finest.
Cam Williams is a 5 star on 247 composite

Cj carr will be a rivals 5 star when they extend 5 stars to 32 like they do. Hes 22 now he'll be a 5star soon

Guerby will be a on3 5star when extend to 32 like they do. Hes 28 right now

Deuce Knight will be a 5star on rivals and on3 when they extend to 32. He is 26th and 28th on those

These guys had offers from everyone and could have went to any power. So your narrative is wrong

Also KVA will be a 5star on rivals when they extend their ranking. Hes 30 right now

Thats 5 guys who are "5 star" that we won for

Do we need more, yes. But we are increasing our talent and continue to go after them
 
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Cam Williams is a 5 star on 247 composite

Cj carr will be a rivals 5 star when they extend 5 stars to 32 like they do. Hes 22 now he'll be a 5star soon

Guerby will be a on3 5star when extend to 32 like they do. Hes 28 right now

Deuce Knight will be a 5star on rivals and on3 when they extend to 32. He is 26th and 28th on those

These guys had offers from everyone and could have went to any power. So your narrative is wrong

Also KVA will be a 5star on rivals when they extend their ranking. Hes 30 right now

Thats 5 guys who are "5 star" that we won for

Do we need more, yes. But we are increasing our talent and continue to go after them
When it's convenient for your argument we switch up from composite to individual ratings and vice versa. There's no intellectual integrity in that.

My point wasn't to quibble over whether a guy is a 4 star or 5 star guy; my point is to highlight NDs recruiting philosophy that is ineffectual in the present recruiting environment.

We should be in it RIGHT NOW with way more elite talent and be recruiting them hard all the way to the final hour of national signing day. Instead, if an elite recruit isn't prepared to suspend his recruitment and commit to ND early on in the cycle (like many lower rated prospects are willing to), ND will just move on and give up on that prospect entirely.

Which is why come NSD, ND will be ranked way too low in the class rankings and their season will be over before it even gets started.
 
When it's convenient for your argument we switch up from composite to individual ratings and vice versa. There's no intellectual integrity in that.

My point wasn't to quibble over whether a guy is a 4 star or 5 star guy; my point is to highlight NDs recruiting philosophy that is ineffectual in the present recruiting environment.

We should be in it RIGHT NOW with way more elite talent and be recruiting them hard all the way to the final hour of national signing day. Instead, if an elite recruit isn't prepared to suspend his recruitment and commit to ND early on in the cycle (like many lower rated prospects are willing to), ND will just move on and give up on that prospect entirely.

Which is why come NSD, ND will be ranked way too low in the class rankings and their season will be over before it even gets started.
Yeah your point sucked because everyone on the country wanted those guys regardless if they are the 20th ranked guy or number 40.

The difference is meaningless

We have multiple guys everyone in the country wanted

Your points are a bad as F-
 
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I debated whether to respond to this because it doesn't really introduce anything new to the conversation or counter any points i haven't made on the topic already but i'll bite.

Weis recruited three top 5 classes in a row. I highlighted the QBs because those guys were two of the most recruited guys at the most coveted position in the sport and secured their LOIs in back to back years. He also recruited 5 star RBs, WRs, TEs, LBs, and DLs and plenty of top 100 high 4 star talent to support them. If he could do it back with a losing record during the height of the ESPN/BCS era, somebody should be able to do it at ND in 2023 and beyond.

Weis recruited top classes in the face of all the ad nauseum excuses ND fans love to give to excuse away mediocre recruiting (even back then).

ND has recruited only 1 top 5 class in the last 15 years (since the prime of the Weis era). They have not adjusted.

When I talk about young energy, i mean new energy, forward energy, it doesn't necessarily have to be age. We need new perspectives on building and marketing the program. We need leadership that resonates with 17 year olds in the year 2023. Leadership all the way up the hierarchy not just the head coach (who is bashing his head against the wall to fight archaic policies at ND to recruit the country's best talent).

Everything about NDs message and culture all the way up the university food chain is out of touch with the present, and it's elitist, and ineffectual. THAT has got to change.
And yet Weis blew chunks in the W/L column. Go figure
 
Yeah your point sucked because everyone on the country wanted those guys regardless if they are the 20th ranked guy or number 40.

The difference is meaningless

We have multiple guys everyone in the country wanted

Your points are a bad as F-
We have 1 or 2 of them per class (if we are lucky), we need 5-10 of them per class just to catch up.

Is anybody here actually willing to steelman my argument instead of strawman it every chance they get?
 
We have 1 or 2 of them per class (if we are lucky), we need 5-10 of them per class just to catch up.

Is anybody here actually willing to steelman my argument instead of strawman it every chance they get?
We have at least 4 guys in this class who can literally go anywhere they want and are a "5star" by at least 1 site

Williams, Carr, Guerby, KVA

Williams - Michigan finished 2nd
Carr - Michigan finished 2nd
Guerby - OSU finished 2nd
KVA - OSU finished 2nd

4 guys who can go anywhere they wanted.

Your wrong like usual

You also don't watch film so you don't know much about who we have on this class and who we dont
 
ND is WAY behind in recruiting relative to their competitors, and ND is WAY behind because their recruiting philosophy is ineffectual for all of the reasons i gave throughout this thread.

Whether ND has a borderline 4 or 5 star guy in a specific instance, or whether ND has 2 vs 4 guys that every school wanted, or whether we're using the composite rankings vs individual ratings, or whether i watch the film or not, none of that stuff matters.

At the end of the day, ND will be ranked 15th or so (yet again) in the class rankings, and be way too far behind the top teams to reasonably compete with them over a full regular season for a national title. [full stop]
 
ND is WAY behind in recruiting relative to their competitors, and ND is WAY behind because their recruiting philosophy is ineffectual for all of the reasons i gave throughout this thread.

Whether ND has a borderline 4 or 5 star guy in a specific instance, or whether ND has 2 vs 4 guys that every school wanted, or whether we're using the composite rankings vs individual ratings, or whether i watch the film or not, none of that stuff matters.

At the end of the day, ND will be ranked 15th or so (yet again) in the class rankings, and be way too far behind the top teams to reasonably compete with them over a full regular season for a national title. [full stop]
Complete nonsense
 
Complete nonsense
i've been having the same argument with one poster or another for at least a decade now

At what point (even with the benefit of hindsight) does the viewpoint im espousing here win the benefit of the doubt?
 
i've been having the same argument with one poster or another for at least a decade now

At what point (even with the benefit of hindsight) does the viewpoint im espousing here win the benefit of the doubt?
Your points continue to be trash. So not until you get a good one

Make a good point and I'll give you that
 
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i've been having the same argument with one poster or another for at least a decade now

At what point (even with the benefit of hindsight) does the viewpoint im espousing here win the benefit of the doubt?
CFBfastr gave 96 percent post game win probability toward ND

Success rate on plays ND was 50 Ohio state 36

Connelly had it 60/40 ND in post game win prob.

Saturday was not a talent or recruiting problem
 
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I think NDs problem were more scheme and coaching under ND.

Things seem better under freeman in terms of getting these guys to play their best and recruiting itself.

As I said they are top 6 in 247 composite average and 4+5 stars
 
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CFBfastr gave 96 percent post game win probability toward ND

Success rate on plays ND was 50 Ohio state 36

Connelly had it 60/40 ND in post game win prob.

Saturday was not a talent or recruiting problem
OSU had the 3rd ranked talent in the country to NDs 11th ranked talent.

ND fell from #8 to #11 in F+ after the loss. OSU is #1.

NDs offense dropped from #9 to #14 after loss as well.

All of these rankings are adjusted for opponent quality.

BUT besides this, the results from 1 game doesn't mean anything really especially on the topic of NDs talent and their ability to compete with the top teams in the country. You have to look at results in aggregate for that. Over a 5/10/15 year period ND has been completely and utterly outclassed by every measure vs the tier 1.
 
OSU had the 3rd ranked talent in the country to NDs 11th ranked talent.

ND fell from #8 to #11 in F+ after the loss. OSU is #1.

NDs offense dropped from #9 to #14 after loss as well.

All of these rankings are adjusted for opponent quality.

BUT besides this, the results from 1 game don't mean anything really especially on the topic of NDs talent and their competitiveness with the top teams in the country. You have to look at results in aggregate for that. Over a 5/10/15 year period ND has been totally outclassed by every measure vs the tier 1.
F- is the worst system that ranks teams. It's just so bad
 
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As I said they are top 6 in 247 composite average and 4+5 stars
Are we supposed to ignore the fact that ND has a black hole at the back end of their roster which is why they are ranked 11th in total team composite talent ranking? Every spot on the roster counts towards your talent ranking. OSUs castoff DE is an everydown DE at Notre Dame. The talent level between these two programs is probably a greater disparity than the talent level between ND and Duke. If OSU had better coaching this game would have been over by the first half.
 
Are we supposed to ignore the fact that ND has a black hole at the back end of their roster which is why they are ranked 11th in total team composite talent ranking? Every spot on the roster counts towards your talent ranking. OSUs castoff DE is an everydown DE at Notre Dame. The talent level between these two programs is probably a greater disparity than the talent level between ND and Duke. If OSU had better coaching this game would have been over by the first half.
LOL
 
OSU had the 3rd ranked talent in the country to NDs 11th ranked talent.

ND fell from #8 to #11 in F+ after the loss. OSU is #1.

NDs offense dropped from #9 to #14 after loss as well.

All of these rankings are adjusted for opponent quality.

BUT besides this, the results from 1 game doesn't mean anything really especially on the topic of NDs talent and their ability to compete with the top teams in the country. You have to look at results in aggregate for that. Over a 5/10/15 year period ND has been completely and utterly outclassed by every measure vs the tier 1.

Are we supposed to ignore the fact that ND has a black hole at the back end of their roster which is why they are ranked 11th in total team composite talent ranking? Every spot on the roster counts towards your talent ranking. OSUs castoff DE is an everydown DE at Notre Dame. The talent level between these two programs is probably a greater disparity than the talent level between ND and Duke. If OSU had better coaching this game would have been over by the first half.
even Connelly admitted wonky things happen with SP+ early in the year.

The statement that a castoff d end at Ohio state is an every down guy at ND is a wild statement and why you get so much shit here
 
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even Connelly admitted wonky things happen with SP+ early in the year.

The statement that a castoff d end at Ohio state is an every down guy at ND is a wild statement and why you get so much shit here
Yes a bunch of ND homers can't stand hearing the truth about how comparatively bad the talent is here. That's their problem. Not mine.

And I'm citing F+ we are a quarter way through the new season. The rankings will be more accurate later in the year, but they are still much better with small sample size than shooting blind/nothing at all
 
Yes a bunch of ND homers can't stand hearing the truth about how comparatively bad the talent is here. That's their problem. Not mine.

And I'm citing F+ we are a quarter way through the new season. The rankings will be more accurate later in the year, but they are still much better with small sample size than shooting blind/nothing at all
The talent is not bad comparatively that’s just wrong
 
The talent is not bad comparatively that’s just wrong
Can you prove otherwise?

The top 3-5 teams are dominating the top 100 recruits every year. Only 1 team wins a national championship. Despite ND being one of the wealthiest programs in the country they are multiple tiers away from the tier 1 in talent. They have 1 five-star on their entire 85 man roster. Their competitors have 10+ five star recruits on their 85 man roster.

ND has a bunch of Bs in a sport that requires As & MASSIVE UPSIDE to win it all. Their talent is bad to below average relative to the teams at the high P4 level.
 
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OSU had the 3rd ranked talent in the country to NDs 11th ranked talent.

ND fell from #8 to #11 in F+ after the loss. OSU is #1.

NDs offense dropped from #9 to #14 after loss as well.

All of these rankings are adjusted for opponent quality.

BUT besides this, the results from 1 game doesn't mean anything really especially on the topic of NDs talent and their ability to compete with the top teams in the country. You have to look at results in aggregate for that. Over a 5/10/15 year period ND has been completely and utterly outclassed by every measure vs the tier 1.
F+ is laughable
 
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Can you prove otherwise?

The top 3-5 teams are dominating the top 100 recruits every year. Only 1 team wins a national championship. Despite ND being one of the wealthiest programs in the country they are multiple tiers away from the tier 1 in talent. They have 1 five-star on their entire 85 man roster. Their competitors have 10+ five star recruits on their 85 man roster.

ND has a bunch of Bs in a sport that requires As & MASSIVE UPSIDE to win it all. Their talent is bad to below average relative to the teams at the high P4 level.
You can’t prove it using F+
 
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CFBfastr gave 96 percent post game win probability toward ND

Success rate on plays ND was 50 Ohio state 36

Connelly had it 60/40 ND in post game win prob.

Saturday was not a talent or recruiting problem
I wanted to add more to my initial response to this post because I like these tools that you used to break down the game. Thanks for pointing out some of these other metrics. CFBfastr is one in particular i hadn't heard of.

I do find it curious how these metrics have anything to do with how a team's 85 man roster compares though.

You know that 1 game is a tiny sample size and even way lesser talented teams can have higher post game win probability, more successful plays or drives, etc. over a much more talented team over the course of a single game right?

If we were to expand the sample size and compare all of OSUs games and all of NDs games with an adjustment for luck and opponent quality this season with these metrics (basically what F+ is doing) there would be a much stronger correlation between a team's performance on the field and their talent ranking. Which is why OSU with the #3 talent in the country has the #1 F+ rating so far. And ND with the #11 talent in the country has the #11 F+ rating so far. It's surprising how closely these metrics line up as the sample size gets larger and larger.
 
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Can you prove otherwise?

The top 3-5 teams are dominating the top 100 recruits every year. Only 1 team wins a national championship. Despite ND being one of the wealthiest programs in the country they are multiple tiers away from the tier 1 in talent. They have 1 five-star on their entire 85 man roster. Their competitors have 10+ five star recruits on their 85 man roster.

ND has a bunch of Bs in a sport that requires As & MASSIVE UPSIDE to win it all. Their talent is bad to below average relative to the teams at the high P4 level.
Explain then why Notre dame was given a 96 percent postgame win percentage probability by one group with a 50 percent success rate compared to the 36 percent of the opponent.

One of the guys who creates one half of sp+ had it 60/40 to the team you say is so devoid of talent.

How?
 
I wanted to add more to my initial response to this post because I like these tools that you used to break down the game. Thanks for pointing out some of these other metrics. CFBfastr is one in particular i hadn't heard of.

I do find it curious how these metrics have anything to do with how a team's 85 man roster compares though.

You know that 1 game is a tiny sample size and even way lesser talented teams can have higher post game win probability, more successful plays or drives, etc. over a much more talented team over the course of a single game right?

If we were to expand the sample size and compare all of OSUs games and all of NDs games with an adjustment for luck and opponent quality this season with these metrics (basically what F+ is doing) there would be a much stronger correlation between a team's performance on the field and their talent ranking. Which is why OSU with the #3 talent in the country has the #1 F+ rating so far. And ND with the #11 talent in the country has the #11 F+ rating so far. It's surprising how closely these metrics line up as the sample size gets larger and larger.

Rank order sucks. Notre dame is within a half standard deviation of the top team F+ currently. Compare that to other years
 
Rank order sucks. Notre dame is within a half standard deviation of the top team F+ currently. Compare that to other years
Your arguments are all over the place. You are using the team's performance data over a smallish sample of games to counter an argument about how their talent stacks up.

We have team talent composite ranking: ND is #11 to OSUs #3. OSU has 10 5-stars to NDs 1 5-star. OSU has a full 85 scholarship players to NDs 79 while also on the plus side of a significantly higher per-recruit rating average. Which is why their 4 star players are largely made up of the kind that rank inside of the top 100 compared to NDs that are more lower ranked on aggregate. By any measure OSU has a significant talent advantage (in another tier entirely over ND)

Source: https://247sports.com/season/2023-football/collegeteamtalentcomposite/
 
Your arguments are all over the place. You are using the team's performance data over a smallish sample of games to counter an argument about how their talent stacks up.

We have team talent composite ranking: ND is #11 to OSUs #3. OSU has 10 5-stars to NDs 1 5-star. OSU has a full 85 scholarship players to NDs 79 while also on the plus side of a significantly higher per-recruit rating average. Which is why their 4 star players are largely made up of the kind that rank inside of the top 100 compared to NDs that are more lower ranked on aggregate. By any measure OSU has a significant talent advantage (in another tier entirely over ND)

Source: https://247sports.com/season/2023-football/collegeteamtalentcomposite/
No they aren’t. Even if I conceded there was a massive talent advantage.

Stop talking about ranks. Rank order is meaningless. Gaps between ranks aren’t always the same
 
No they aren’t. Even if I conceded there was a massive talent advantage.

Stop talking about ranks. Rank order is meaningless. Gaps between ranks aren’t always the same
Rank order is fine given the audience here. I don't need to use a bunch of mathematical/statistical jargon that isn't going to land to an audience that has been measuring how teams stack up based on the number by their name their entire lives

I still have no clue what point you are trying to make at this point. You entered this topic trying to argue ND was *NOT* lacking in talent, and then provided a bunch of performance metrics to back up your point instead of talent metrics. Now you are saying that your point is not to use the team's overall rankings for comparing and contrasting but to look at the standard deviation difference instead. All of which points to the same information I provided just packaged in a different way.

Is there anything you actually disagree with me on?
 
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Chase has to be toying with you guys! He cannot possibly believe his own arguments!
His arguments remind one of Prof. Irwin Corey.
 
Chase has to be toying with you guys! He cannot possibly believe his own arguments!
His arguments remind one of Prof. Irwin Corey.
I stand by all of the arguments ive made in this topic

Also, I do agree that the difference between teams based on their respective F+ ratings through 4-5 games in 2023 is packed a lot tighter than it has been in the recent past suggesting more parity in the sport. But that doesn't change the fact that ND is massively out talented by most of their peers and that that massive talent disadvantage doesn't greatly diminish their chances to compete for national titles (as it has done for much of the last 15 years).

NDs talent relative to ALL 133 teams in the FBS: B+
NDs talent relative to the top teams in the P4: C-
 
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I stand by all of the arguments ive made in this topic

Also, I do agree that the difference between teams based on their respective F+ ratings through 4-5 games in 2023 is packed a lot tighter than it has been in the recent past suggesting more parity in the sport. But that doesn't change the fact that ND is massively out talented by most of their peers and that that massive talent disadvantage doesn't greatly diminish their chances to compete for national titles (as it has done for much of the last 15 years).

NDs talent relative to ALL 133 teams in the FBS: B+
NDs talent relative to the top teams in the P4: C-
More nonsense
 
When it's convenient for your argument we switch up from composite to individual ratings and vice versa. There's no intellectual integrity in that.

My point wasn't to quibble over whether a guy is a 4 star or 5 star guy; my point is to highlight NDs recruiting philosophy that is ineffectual in the present recruiting environment.

We should be in it RIGHT NOW with way more elite talent and be recruiting them hard all the way to the final hour of national signing day. Instead, if an elite recruit isn't prepared to suspend his recruitment and commit to ND early on in the cycle (like many lower rated prospects are willing to), ND will just move on and give up on that prospect entirely.

Which is why come NSD, ND will be ranked way too low in the class rankings and their season will be over before it even gets started.
We’re you upset and raving that ND offered a 3-star Kyle Hamilton? You bet your ass you were, too early to give a damn about stars for 2025 because much like you, they will change their course.
 
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Chase has to be toying with you guys! He cannot possibly believe his own arguments!
His arguments remind one of Prof. Irwin Corey.
Agreed. Absolutely a troll that lives for message boards and ruffling ND fans feathers (very successful). Hope he’s as successful at Wal Mart and demanding those $5K appearance fees to show up for his overnight shift!
 
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I personally find it unconvincing chase is a troll but I don’t deny it either.

I do think he has a flawed interpretation of these numbers and stats.

People may not like me but I feel like I offer a more objective analysis of these numbers
 
Anyone that thinks that there is a difference in the 25th ranked player in the country to the 30th or 40th is a buffoon. NFL GMs spend a boatload of their time on the draft and get it wrong all the time, but we’re supposed to believe that some recruiting service geek is right about all their evaluations? It’s a ridiculous position to take to seriously think it’s all about 5 stars and nothing else. In-person evaluation & development once the player gets on campus are what makes winning teams, not recruiting rankings.
 
Anyone that thinks that there is a difference in the 25th ranked player in the country to the 30th or 40th is a buffoon. NFL GMs spend a boatload of their time on the draft and get it wrong all the time, but we’re supposed to believe that some recruiting service geek is right about all their evaluations? It’s a ridiculous position to take to seriously think it’s all about 5 stars and nothing else. In-person evaluation & development once the player gets on campus are what makes winning teams, not recruiting rankings.
You just defined Chase right there with that statement.
 
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