Defer

[rgc7]

Please Coach Kelly, Surprise everyone if you win the toss and defer ! If we are to win this game, the defense must win it. The defense has been the strength of this team in the first half of this year.
Go with our strength ! Take control of the game right from the opening bell !

 

[justified1]

Sorry, gotta disagree. ND has gotten off early in about every game. If ND gets Tee Martin behind, there is no limit to his brain farts.

 

[Irish Grandeur]

It seems much is made of deferring to the second half. I would rather take a chance on getting out to a lead to start a game. If it is expected that the defense will shut down the opposing offense to start a game then give me the ball so I can score to start and score again after a three and out. Too much thought goes into this, IMO.

 

[HRC08]

It's a home game. The defense will have the crowd behind them. Take the ball, establish field position and let our line start leaning on that Trojan defense.

 

[Bodizephax]

Take the ball opening drive and run it down USCs throats. Can't let USC get a lead !!

 

[IrishInOntario]

Please Coach Kelly, Surprise everyone if you win the toss and defer ! If we are to win this game, the defense must win it. The defense has been the strength of this team in the first half of this year.
Go with our strength ! Take control of the game right from the opening bell !

I think he's take the ball and try to set the tone with an assertive run game early. He'll want to get USC on their heels and control the clock, having them play from behind.

 

[scubastevefl]

I would always want the ball st start the second half, you can cut into or extend the lead, can get two possessions in a row

 

[deadirishpoet]

Please Coach Kelly, Surprise everyone if you win the toss and defer ! If we are to win this game, the defense must win it. The defense has been the strength of this team in the first half of this year.
Go with our strength ! Take control of the game right from the opening bell !

I agree. At this point NDs passing game is not where it needs to be, and the defense is surprisingly stout for the most part. Though missing Martini could be a bigger loss than expected.

 

[rgc7]

Scrub and Poet,

I believe that most coaches , when given the choice , elect to defer ? I have no
Stats on that, so correct me if I am wrong by showing me the stats ! Be that as it may, here are the advantages as I see them.
1. Even if the other team scores ( worse case scienario ) You still get the ball first to start the second
Half which depending on how much time of possession each team team has in the second have, may give
You the first and ( possibly ) the last possession in the second in half ?
2. If your defense is your strength, there is a good chance that they shut down the opposition on the
Opening possession, and that gives you a hugh advantage because the other team has wasted a possession.
3. You now have the ball, and if you score on your first possession, you now also have that second
Half opening possession which give you a hugh advantage.
4. The other team may be “ Cold “ and not yet fully in Sync , and a good defense should have the advantage early in the game ?
I see more advantages in deferring than negatives to defering especially if your defense is your strength ! So far our defense has been our strength, and our only loss so far this season was the weakness
Of our offense, that loss was not on our defense !

 

[Buguit]

Nothing worse than being behind and kicking off to start 2nd half .... worse case scenario is not a possibility if you defer .... why most defer

Not to mention you get ball with a chance to get ball knowing how d wants to try and stop you .... make 2nd half adjustments

2nd half adjustments has never been a Kelly calling card

This should be a no brainer ... Kelly has proven there are not many no brainers with him

 

[Bumpdaddy]

Scrub and Poet,

I believe that most coaches , when given the choice , elect to defer ? I have no
Stats on that, so correct me if I am wrong by showing me the stats !

I don't know the stats either but I think it's a very safe bet that you are right. One way to tell is how often we get the ball first whether we win the coin toss or not. It seems we get the ball first the vast majority of the time which means even when we lose the toss the opposing team is electing to defer so we end up receiving anyway. I guess one way to look at it is we almost always feel like we won the coin toss because we end up receiving either way. But then again, the majority of opposing teams feel the same way because they always seem to get the ball first in the second half. My view on the topic is to go by game theory which suggests that you always have an advantage when you get to act after your opponent. Deferring doesn't fit that rule perfectly but I still think it applies and I think that's one of the main reasons most coaches choose to do so.

 

[TOMMY_23]

Please Coach Kelly, Surprise everyone if you win the toss and defer ! If we are to win this game, the defense must win it. The defense has been the strength of this team in the first half of this year.
Go with our strength ! Take control of the game right from the opening bell !

Especially for this game. Darnold is a turnover machine and under these lights he might just melt early on in the first possession.

 

[TOMMY_23]

Sorry, gotta disagree. ND has gotten off early in about every game. If ND gets Tee Martin behind, there is no limit to his brain farts.

ND has been playing JV teams thus far, except for UGA.

 

[88ND]

Take the ball opening drive and run it down USCs throats. Can't let USC get a lead !!

This right here is paramount.

If they get a lead it could be big trouble. As in USC wins big.

We do NOT have the QB play to play catch up the entire game.

We really need to win this Lou Holtz style. Run run run... Lull them to sleep then a surprise pass to a speedy reciever.

 

[88ND]

I don't know the stats either but I think it's a very safe bet that you are right. One way to tell is how often we get the ball first whether we win the coin toss or not. It seems we get the ball first the vast majority of the time which means even when we lose the toss the opposing team is electing to defer so we end up receiving anyway. I guess one way to look at it is we almost always feel like we won the coin toss because we end up receiving either way. But then again, the majority of opposing teams feel the same way because they always seem to get the ball first in the second half. My view on the topic is to go by game theory which suggests that you always have an advantage when you get to act after your opponent. Deferring doesn't fit that rule perfectly but I still think it applies and I think that's one of the main reasons most coaches choose to do so.

I believe most coaches take the ball on the road if they win. Sort of a let's get points and shut this place the **** up. At home it seems they defer more

 

[notredamerises23]

Please Coach Kelly, Surprise everyone if you win the toss and defer ! If we are to win this game, the defense must win it. The defense has been the strength of this team in the first half of this year.
Go with our strength ! Take control of the game right from the opening bell !

No, that is not correct. ND is 11th in the nation in offensive efficiency and 10th in defensive efficiency. It’s ND’s combination of offense and defense thst has made it so good this year.

 

[ndnd]

Please Coach Kelly, Surprise everyone if you win the toss and defer ! If we are to win this game, the defense must win it. The defense has been the strength of this team in the first half of this year.
Go with our strength ! Take control of the game right from the opening bell !

I agree. At this point NDs passing game is not where it needs to be, and the defense is surprisingly stout for the most part. Though missing Martini could be a bigger loss than expected.

The percentages are always better to defer especially in big games . I go with the math it’s like 56 percent deferring teams - so defer ND

 

[Chitownrealist]

Based on the studies I have seen there is no causal link between deferring and winning. The NFL implemented the college rule in 2008 allowing a team who wins the toss to defer. For the first year or so it was overwhelming percentage of pro teams that elected to receive when winning the toss. After several years that trend has switched to more deferrals than receives at this stage, but regardless i think it is generally agreed that there are a host of variables that go into the decision. One should not automatically do one or the other.

If you think about it, receiving allows the greatest chance of having an extra possession and thus in a vacuum that would seem to be the best decision, but when one takes into account weather, match-ups, and performance of various teams and players the week of a game or even the day of a game, a different result may be the better one.

I don't think it is fair to criticize a coach for receiving or deferring in a given game, but it should be agreed that always deferring or receiving regardless of the other variables is unwise.

Saturday the weather looks to be good. Their defense may be significantly weakened without Fatu. We are healthy with an offense that has been very good on first drives. And our punter has won the field position battle in virtually every game. Saturday night I take the ball and don't look back. GO IRISH!!!

 

[Buguit]

Based on the studies I have seen there is no causal link between deferring and winning. The NFL implemented the college rule in 2008 allowing a team who wins the toss to defer. For the first year or so it was overwhelming percentage of pro teams that elected to receive when winning the toss. After several years that trend has switched to more deferrals than receives at this stage, but regardless i think it is generally agreed that there are a host of variables that go into the decision. One should not automatically do one or the other.

If you think about it, receiving allows the greatest chance of having an extra possession and thus in a vacuum that would seem to be the best decision, but when one takes into account weather, match-ups, and performance of various teams and players the week of a game or even the day of a game, a different result may be the better one.

I don't think it is fair to criticize a coach for receiving or deferring in a given game, but it should be agreed that always deferring or receiving regardless of the other variables is unwise.

Saturday the weather looks to be good. Their defense may be significantly weakened without Fatu. We are healthy with an offense that has been very good on first drives. And our punter has won the field position battle in virtually every game. Saturday night I take the ball and don't look back. GO IRISH!!!

I believe the opposite is true about getting an extra possession ..... if the receiving team ends the half with the ball they finish the half with one more possession ... then the deferring team gets the ball 1st next half .... only the defering team can cheat that by ending the half with the ball and getting it back again in the 2nd half .....

The receiving team can't get the ball in back to back possessions ... the deferring team can

Another point for deferring

 

[irish4life888]

Please Coach Kelly, Surprise everyone if you win the toss and defer ! If we are to win this game, the defense must win it. The defense has been the strength of this team in the first half of this year.
Go with our strength ! Take control of the game right from the opening bell !

Gotta disagree, II would say our strength is scoring quickly and first.

 

[Chitownrealist]

I believe the opposite is true about getting an extra possession ..... if the receiving team ends the half with the ball they finish the half with one more possession ... then the deferring team gets the ball 1st next half .... only the defering team can cheat that by ending the half with the ball and getting it back again in the 2nd half .....

The receiving team can't get the ball in back to back possessions ... the deferring team can

Another point for deferring

Buguit - with all due respect, you are wrong. I won't belabor the issue but if you think it through you will understand. If the deferring team ends the half with the ball they only get back to even and then only get the extra possession if they end the game with the ball. The receiving team starts with the possession advantage. It is six of one and half a dozen of the other. This is why 87% of NFL teams elected to receive in 2008 when the NFL permitted deferring. I believe this past year it flipped to around 60% deferral.

I don't think there is any question we should receive on Saturday. GO IRISH!!!!!!

 

[rgc7]

I believe the opposite is true about getting an extra possession ..... if the receiving team ends the half with the ball they finish the half with one more possession ... then the deferring team gets the ball 1st next half .... only the defering team can cheat that by ending the half with the ball and getting it back again in the 2nd half .....

The receiving team can't get the ball in back to back possessions ... the deferring team can

Another point for deferring

Good point ! But if the receiving team does not score on that first possession, or turns the ball over,
The defering team then has a hugh advantage right from the get go, and they still get the ball first and possibly last in the second half. Which in, my view, is the more critical time to receive the ball ?
I would prefer to defer just about every time with few exceptions for weather conditions.

 

[Buguit]

Buguit - with all due respect, you are wrong. I won't belabor the issue but if you think it through you will understand. If the deferring team ends the half with the ball they only get back to even and then only get the extra possession if they end the game with the ball. The receiving team starts with the possession advantage. It is six of one and half a dozen of the other. This is why 87% of NFL teams elected to receive in 2008 when the NFL permitted deferring. I believe this past year it flipped to around 60% deferral.

I don't think there is any question we should receive on Saturday. GO IRISH!!!!!!

Not sure where you get your stats ..... they aren't close to correct ... most teams defer with what should be obvious reasons ..... I get you don't get it ...... this board is a head scratcher very often

The number one reason you should defer is to avoid kicking off in 2nd half being behind ..... nothing worse ..... and you can't get more possessions if deferring team ends half with the ball .... they can double up ....

Not to mention I'd think you'd want the ball when you understand what the other team is doing and not have to rely on the element of surprise .... unless your ability to make adjustments stinks .... you'd wan the ball 1st in 2nd half after the feeling out period .. then go win the game ......

 

[Chitownrealist]

Not sure where you get your stats ..... they aren't close to correct ... most teams defer with what should be obvious reasons ..... I get you don't get it ...... this board is a head scratcher very often

The number one reason you should defer is to avoid kicking off in 2nd half being behind ..... nothing worse ..... and you can't get more possessions if deferring team ends half with the ball .... they can double up ....

Not to mention I'd think you'd want the ball when you understand what the other team is doing and not have to rely on the element of surprise .... unless your ability to make adjustments stinks .... you'd wan the ball 1st in 2nd half after the feeling out period .. then go win the game ......

Again - you are wrong. This has been studied quite a bit. If there was a definitive answer on whether to defer or receive - everyone would do it. But since you ask here is the proof that receiving gives a statistically insignificant but nonetheless mathematical advantage to the receiving team:


The results over a sample of 2,110 games, with teams randomly assigned to the kicking and receiving groups, show that there probably isn't any advantage to kicking first and receiving in the second half. In fact, the results show that there could be an advantage to receiving first; however, a binomial test on the results yields a p-value of 0.13, or not statistically significant at the commonly used 95 percent confidence threshold.

So why do teams choose to defer if there is no evidence that it helps them win, and it could actually be a negative? The answer is gut-based decision-making explained in this Fox Sports article.

if you have the ball and score at the end of the first half on the last play, then you get the ball back to start the second half. That’s a big momentum play. The opportunity to have the ball twice in a row — as the numbers clearly reflect — is beginning to sway a lot of coaches to defer on the opening coin toss.

Brian Burke and others have done great work showing that there is no statistical evidence that momentum exists, but that isn't stopping coaches to make decisions based on a momentum theory when the numbers say the opposite call could be beneficial.


The key line there is that the numbers say receiving could be beneficial and the numbers say there is no momentum advantage with 2 possessions. You can argue with me all you want. I'm done now. The numbers are what they are and they establish receiving presents a slight statistical advantage. All of that said, ND should receive Saturday and then "onward to victory." GO IRISH. !!!

 

[Buguit]

Again - you are wrong. This has been studied quite a bit. If there was a definitive answer on whether to defer or receive - everyone would do it. But since you ask here is the proof that receiving gives a statistically insignificant but nonetheless mathematical advantage to the receiving team:


The results over a sample of 2,110 games, with teams randomly assigned to the kicking and receiving groups, show that there probably isn't any advantage to kicking first and receiving in the second half. In fact, the results show that there could be an advantage to receiving first; however, a binomial test on the results yields a p-value of 0.13, or not statistically significant at the commonly used 95 percent confidence threshold.

So why do teams choose to defer if there is no evidence that it helps them win, and it could actually be a negative? The answer is gut-based decision-making explained in this Fox Sports article.

if you have the ball and score at the end of the first half on the last play, then you get the ball back to start the second half. That’s a big momentum play. The opportunity to have the ball twice in a row — as the numbers clearly reflect — is beginning to sway a lot of coaches to defer on the opening coin toss.

Brian Burke and others have done great work showing that there is no statistical evidence that momentum exists, but that isn't stopping coaches to make decisions based on a momentum theory when the numbers say the opposite call could be beneficial.


The key line there is that the numbers say receiving could be beneficial and the numbers say there is no momentum advantage with 2 possessions. You can argue with me all you want. I'm done now. The numbers are what they are and they establish receiving presents a slight statistical advantage. All of that said, ND should receive Saturday and then "onward to victory." GO IRISH. !!!

Spoken like someone who speaks math and knows nothing about football .... this is another example of how "projected" statististics haveno basis in reality .... I've seen the "projected" statistics of how you will score more points and the advantage of never punting .... sorry but my opinion is based on actual reality .... Am I arguing with you if you responded to me first with your wrong opinion based on fantasy land ?

My opinion has nothing to do with "momentum" ... try and respond to what I actually say sometime