There's a lot of factors that go into deciding whether to retain or fire Kelly. History says he's capable of winning a lot of games,. However, he has yet to beat an elite opponent or get a major bowl win. Most recent example is 2015. He's taking accountability(finally) for the lack of production on defense by firing BVG, which means he's willing to make changes. His recruiting for the 2017 and 2018 classes are strong, although there is cause for concern for decommits. I suspect Kelly ends up with an 8-5 record and a meaningless bowl win. Looking at the history, present, and future, I suspect Swarbrick will be inclined to keep Kelly, especially since Kelly has that contract in place through 2021. The big question I have is, whether ND and the adminstration is seriously looking at other candidates and feeling them out at season's end. If they are, and they're convinced that the coach could do better than Kelly(that's the only reason you fire a coach and hire a new one) then you have to wonder what ND does. My gut tells me ND's adminstration won't do that though and will give Kelly another shot.