"Boom-Bust" cycles coming due to NIL & Pay for play

[chaseball]

Coaches/universities will beef up budget when they have a championship caliber roster in order to put their program over the top and get deep to withstand any injuries. When they dont have a championship roster they will essentially bench any vet on the team, start younger players that have more eligibility going forward so that underclassman can gain valuable experience and so that the coaching staff can evaluate the under classman in game reps and determine if he should "have the portal talk" with the player or not. e.g. "playing time is going to be limited for you going forward i suggest the transfer portal" lol

ND should be leveraging this strategy themselves.

It requires having a strong forecasting model that you can really believe in/buy in and being very real/honest with yourself about your organizations chances in a 4 round playoff scenario. e.g. if your forecasting model says you have less than 5% chance to win a playoff game in week 7 of the season for example you should probably start rebuilding ASAP and using the remaining regular season games to evaluate your 85 man roster and prioritize players with more eligibility.

The $20 / $30 / $40 Million dollar (and beyond) rosters are coming. And college administrators aren't going to want to invest 10+ digits in a roster that has only a small chance to make it to the playoff/win playoff games.

Basically football operations offices (at least the good ones) are going to constantly be operating like they are in a game of chess always thinking 5 moves ahead

 

[BGI User 756]

Wow, you thought that up all by yourself?

 

[ticat]

Coaches/universities will beef up budget when they have a championship caliber roster in order to put their program over the top and get deep to withstand any injuries. When they dont have a championship roster they will essentially bench any vet on the team, start younger players that have more eligibility going forward so that underclassman can gain valuable experience and so that the coaching staff can evaluate the under classman in game reps and determine if he should "have the portal talk" with the player or not. e.g. "playing time is going to be limited for you going forward i suggest the transfer portal" lol

ND should be leveraging this strategy themselves.

It requires having a strong forecasting model that you can really believe in/buy in and being very real/honest with yourself about your organizations chances in a 4 round playoff scenario. e.g. if your forecasting model says you have less than 5% chance to win a playoff game in week 7 of the season for example you should probably start rebuilding ASAP and using the remaining regular season games to evaluate your 85 man roster and prioritize players with more eligibility.

The $20 / $30 / $40 Million dollar (and beyond) rosters are coming. And college administrators aren't going to want to invest 10+ digits in a roster that has only a small chance to make it to the playoff/win playoff games.

Basically football operations offices (at least the good ones) are going to constantly be operating like they are in a game of chess always thinking 5 moves ahead

Once again, not a professional sports franchise...you are SO confused....

 

[savvyandsassier]

Once again, not a professional sports franchise...you are SO confused....

Yeah, they are now. They're professional, we have GMs now! I didn't even read the OP, but I saw your reply. I did see something about a 'forecasting model'. As well as 'having the portal talk', which I had to chuckle at.

 

[NDinNJ]

Once again, not a professional sports franchise...you are SO confused....

Well, court ordered revenue sharing is here. $20 million in revenue sharing, a good chunk will most likely go to Football and men's Basketball.
The caveat is ND is still an academic institution, and they'll require their athletes to pursue a meaningful degree.

Notre Dames biggest obstacle isn't going to be the money and NIL part, the challenge will be acquiring prized recruits that want to go to class.

 

[buckey]

Coaches/universities will beef up budget when they have a championship caliber roster in order to put their program over the top and get deep to withstand any injuries. When they dont have a championship roster they will essentially bench any vet on the team, start younger players that have more eligibility going forward so that underclassman can gain valuable experience and so that the coaching staff can evaluate the under classman in game reps and determine if he should "have the portal talk" with the player or not. e.g. "playing time is going to be limited for you going forward i suggest the transfer portal" lol

ND should be leveraging this strategy themselves.

It requires having a strong forecasting model that you can really believe in/buy in and being very real/honest with yourself about your organizations chances in a 4 round playoff scenario. e.g. if your forecasting model says you have less than 5% chance to win a playoff game in week 7 of the season for example you should probably start rebuilding ASAP and using the remaining regular season games to evaluate your 85 man roster and prioritize players with more eligibility.

The $20 / $30 / $40 Million dollar (and beyond) rosters are coming. And college administrators aren't going to want to invest 10+ digits in a roster that has only a small chance to make it to the playoff/win playoff games.

Basically football operations offices (at least the good ones) are going to constantly be operating like they are in a game of chess always thinking 5 moves ahead

Nostradamus?

 

[savvyandsassier]

Nostradamus?

I think they'll just let AI take over. As far as all roster/personnel decisions. The proponents of AI, many of whom are de facto free will deniers, basically make the claim that AI can predict the future. Which I don't think is true, but you know how people are, if it's their brainchild, they're going to make outrageous claims.

But AI could conceivably take over all aspects of coaching, pretty much everything, other than the unavoidably human aspects. It certainly can take over play calling and game planning. And the coach is more like the point man for the AI system's directives. Position coaches would have more prominence because they would still be working with their players on their technique in position drills and the like. But HCs and especially coordinators in a way could almost be largely eliminated. Functioning more as a flesh and blood liaison between the computer's instructions, and the players themselves.

 

[4-4-3]

Coaches/universities will beef up budget when they have a championship caliber roster in order to put their program over the top and get deep to withstand any injuries. When they dont have a championship roster they will essentially bench any vet on the team, start younger players that have more eligibility going forward so that underclassman can gain valuable experience and so that the coaching staff can evaluate the under classman in game reps and determine if he should "have the portal talk" with the player or not. e.g. "playing time is going to be limited for you going forward i suggest the transfer portal" lol

ND should be leveraging this strategy themselves.

It requires having a strong forecasting model that you can really believe in/buy in and being very real/honest with yourself about your organizations chances in a 4 round playoff scenario. e.g. if your forecasting model says you have less than 5% chance to win a playoff game in week 7 of the season for example you should probably start rebuilding ASAP and using the remaining regular season games to evaluate your 85 man roster and prioritize players with more eligibility.

The $20 / $30 / $40 Million dollar (and beyond) rosters are coming. And college administrators aren't going to want to invest 10+ digits in a roster that has only a small chance to make it to the playoff/win playoff games.

Basically football operations offices (at least the good ones) are going to constantly be operating like they are in a game of chess always thinking 5 moves ahead

I've already posted this on the PAY SITE.

It's INFORMATIVE. Just click below.

How Billionaires Took Over College Football

 

[chaseball]

I've already posted this on the PAY SITE.

It's INFORMATIVE. Just click below.

How Billionaires Took Over College Football

I like this kind of stuff, thanks for perceiving that and sharing the link.

 

[4-4-3]

I like this kind of stuff, thanks for perceiving that and sharing the link.

The article RAISES MANY QUESTIONS:

• Will ND PARTICIPATE in REVENUE SHARING? Is it COMPULSORY, VOLUNTARY or WHAT?
• Will TITLE IX ISSUES water down revenue sharing?
• To what extent -- as well as HOW -- will COLLECTIVES continue to operate, as I believe some intend to, even if they no longer enjoy 501c3 status?

Depending on how these questions are answered -- and I don't see any way HOW TO PROJECT THAT -- CFB rosters could be DRAMATICALLY AFFECTED. Both quickly and over time.

As things currently stand, IT'S ALL ABOUT MONEY, and I can't see how ND -- if it's not FULLY ON BOARD with that -- can REMAIN COMPETITIVE.

What I'm saying is that we may be looking at a WHOLE NEW PARADIGM that will TILT THE PROCESS well beyond WHO CAN GET IN and WHO WANTS TO COME to something more like WHAT ARE YOU WILLING TO PAY ME.

And that pertains to not only ACQUIRING talent but also RETAINING it.

How does the student-athlete concept -- OR EVEN THE REMNANTS OF IT -- square with THAT?

 

[NDinNJ]

The article RAISES MANY QUESTIONS:

• Will ND PARTICIPATE in REVENUE SHARING? Is it COMPULSORY, VOLUNTARY or WHAT?
• Will TITLE IX ISSUES water down revenue sharing?
• To what extent -- as well as HOW -- will COLLECTIVES continue to operate, as I believe some intend to, even if they no longer enjoy 501c3 status?

Depending on how these questions are answered -- and I don't see any way HOW TO PROJECT THAT -- CFB rosters could be DRAMATICALLY AFFECTED. Both quickly and over time.

As things currently stand, IT'S ALL ABOUT MONEY, and I can't see how ND -- if it's not FULLY ON BOARD with that -- can REMAIN COMPETITIVE.

What I'm saying is that we may be looking at a WHOLE NEW PARADIGM that will TILT THE PROCESS well beyond WHO CAN GET IN and WHO WANTS TO COME to something more like WHAT ARE YOU WILLING TO PAY ME.

And that pertains to not only ACQUIRING talent but also RETAINING it.

How does the student-athlete concept -- OR EVEN THE REMNANTS OF IT -- square with THAT?

It's court ordered, and Pete Bevacqua leaves no doubt.

Notre Dame athletic director Pete Bevacqua on the plan once House Settlement goes into effect

Notre Dame athletic director Pete Bevacqua says 'a large portion' of annual revenue sharing will be 'dedicated to football' under House Settlement.

www.usatoday.com

 

[sjb75]

It's court ordered, and Pete Bevacqua leaves no doubt.

Notre Dame athletic director Pete Bevacqua on the plan once House Settlement goes into effect

Notre Dame athletic director Pete Bevacqua says 'a large portion' of annual revenue sharing will be 'dedicated to football' under House Settlement.

www.usatoday.com

That's all great.

Finding elite players that want to attend class and graduate, which Notre Dame will never change, will always be a hurdle.

 

[NDinNJ]

That's all great.

Finding elite players that want to attend class and graduate, which Notre Dame will never change, will always be a hurdle.

Agree, it's never been about Notre Dame not spending money. it's about the having the elite athletes go to class Chase doesn't seem to understand that.

 

[sjb75]

Agree, it's never been about Notre Dame not spending money. it's about the having the elite athletes go to class Chase doesn't seem to understand that.

My hunch is that the dude at Ohio St., the freshman WR, would never even consider Notre Dame.

 

[chaseball]

My hunch is that the dude at Ohio St., the freshman WR, would never even consider Notre Dame.

You mean like Mike Floyd, Golden Tate, Maurice Stovall, Rema McKnight, Kevin Austin Jr, Jordan Johnson, TJ Jones, and a slew of other WR prospects that were rated as high 4 star and 5 star prospects coming out of HS that signed at Notre Dame?

ND can land these guys under the right leadership/vision. Unfortunately the current administration at ND isn't it.

 

[sjb75]

Agree, it's never been about Notre Dame not spending money. it's about the having the elite athletes go to class Chase doesn't seem to understand that.

I do not read a single word of what Chaseball posts; however, no biggy. The academic piece will always be a factor. You can't major in the NFL at Notre Dame.

 

[Shakin' Down the Thunder]

I do not read a single word of what Chaseball posts; however, no biggy. The academic piece will always be a factor. You can't major in the NFL at Notre Dame.

Yes you can. You're just going to have to do a double major.

 

[Patrish]

Coaches/universities will beef up budget when they have a championship caliber roster in order to put their program over the top and get deep to withstand any injuries. When they dont have a championship roster they will essentially bench any vet on the team, start younger players that have more eligibility going forward so that underclassman can gain valuable experience and so that the coaching staff can evaluate the under classman in game reps and determine if he should "have the portal talk" with the player or not. e.g. "playing time is going to be limited for you going forward i suggest the transfer portal" lol

ND should be leveraging this strategy themselves.

It requires having a strong forecasting model that you can really believe in/buy in and being very real/honest with yourself about your organizations chances in a 4 round playoff scenario. e.g. if your forecasting model says you have less than 5% chance to win a playoff game in week 7 of the season for example you should probably start rebuilding ASAP and using the remaining regular season games to evaluate your 85 man roster and prioritize players with more eligibility.

The $20 / $30 / $40 Million dollar (and beyond) rosters are coming. And college administrators aren't going to want to invest 10+ digits in a roster that has only a small chance to make it to the playoff/win playoff games.

Basically football operations offices (at least the good ones) are going to constantly be operating like they are in a game of chess always thinking 5 moves ahead

I won’t say that eligibility has become obsolete, but with the transfer portal rules, it’s less meaningful ……… by far