"Boom-Bust" cycles coming due to NIL & Pay for play

[chaseball]

Coaches/universities will beef up budget when they have a championship caliber roster in order to put their program over the top and get deep to withstand any injuries. When they dont have a championship roster they will essentially bench any vet on the team, start younger players that have more eligibility going forward so that underclassman can gain valuable experience and so that the coaching staff can evaluate the under classman in game reps and determine if he should "have the portal talk" with the player or not. e.g. "playing time is going to be limited for you going forward i suggest the transfer portal" lol

ND should be leveraging this strategy themselves.

It requires having a strong forecasting model that you can really believe in/buy in and being very real/honest with yourself about your organizations chances in a 4 round playoff scenario. e.g. if your forecasting model says you have less than 5% chance to win a playoff game in week 7 of the season for example you should probably start rebuilding ASAP and using the remaining regular season games to evaluate your 85 man roster and prioritize players with more eligibility.

The $20 / $30 / $40 Million dollar (and beyond) rosters are coming. And college administrators aren't going to want to invest 10+ digits in a roster that has only a small chance to make it to the playoff/win playoff games.

Basically football operations offices (at least the good ones) are going to constantly be operating like they are in a game of chess always thinking 5 moves ahead

 

[BGI User 756]

Wow, you thought that up all by yourself?

 

[ticat]

Coaches/universities will beef up budget when they have a championship caliber roster in order to put their program over the top and get deep to withstand any injuries. When they dont have a championship roster they will essentially bench any vet on the team, start younger players that have more eligibility going forward so that underclassman can gain valuable experience and so that the coaching staff can evaluate the under classman in game reps and determine if he should "have the portal talk" with the player or not. e.g. "playing time is going to be limited for you going forward i suggest the transfer portal" lol

ND should be leveraging this strategy themselves.

It requires having a strong forecasting model that you can really believe in/buy in and being very real/honest with yourself about your organizations chances in a 4 round playoff scenario. e.g. if your forecasting model says you have less than 5% chance to win a playoff game in week 7 of the season for example you should probably start rebuilding ASAP and using the remaining regular season games to evaluate your 85 man roster and prioritize players with more eligibility.

The $20 / $30 / $40 Million dollar (and beyond) rosters are coming. And college administrators aren't going to want to invest 10+ digits in a roster that has only a small chance to make it to the playoff/win playoff games.

Basically football operations offices (at least the good ones) are going to constantly be operating like they are in a game of chess always thinking 5 moves ahead

Once again, not a professional sports franchise...you are SO confused....

 

[savvyandsassier]

Once again, not a professional sports franchise...you are SO confused....

Yeah, they are now. They're professional, we have GMs now! I didn't even read the OP, but I saw your reply. I did see something about a 'forecasting model'. As well as 'having the portal talk', which I had to chuckle at.

 

[NDinNJ]

Once again, not a professional sports franchise...you are SO confused....

Well, court ordered revenue sharing is here. $20 million in revenue sharing, a good chunk will most likely go to Football and men's Basketball.
The caveat is ND is still an academic institution, and they'll require their athletes to pursue a meaningful degree.

Notre Dames biggest obstacle isn't going to be the money and NIL part, the challenge will be acquiring prized recruits that want to go to class.

 

[buckey]

Coaches/universities will beef up budget when they have a championship caliber roster in order to put their program over the top and get deep to withstand any injuries. When they dont have a championship roster they will essentially bench any vet on the team, start younger players that have more eligibility going forward so that underclassman can gain valuable experience and so that the coaching staff can evaluate the under classman in game reps and determine if he should "have the portal talk" with the player or not. e.g. "playing time is going to be limited for you going forward i suggest the transfer portal" lol

ND should be leveraging this strategy themselves.

It requires having a strong forecasting model that you can really believe in/buy in and being very real/honest with yourself about your organizations chances in a 4 round playoff scenario. e.g. if your forecasting model says you have less than 5% chance to win a playoff game in week 7 of the season for example you should probably start rebuilding ASAP and using the remaining regular season games to evaluate your 85 man roster and prioritize players with more eligibility.

The $20 / $30 / $40 Million dollar (and beyond) rosters are coming. And college administrators aren't going to want to invest 10+ digits in a roster that has only a small chance to make it to the playoff/win playoff games.

Basically football operations offices (at least the good ones) are going to constantly be operating like they are in a game of chess always thinking 5 moves ahead

Nostradamus?

 

[savvyandsassier]

Nostradamus?

I think they'll just let AI take over. As far as all roster/personnel decisions. The proponents of AI, many of whom are de facto free will deniers, basically make the claim that AI can predict the future. Which I don't think is true, but you know how people are, if it's their brainchild, they're going to make outrageous claims.

But AI could conceivably take over all aspects of coaching, pretty much everything, other than the unavoidably human aspects. It certainly can take over play calling and game planning. And the coach is more like the point man for the AI system's directives. Position coaches would have more prominence because they would still be working with their players on their technique in position drills and the like. But HCs and especially coordinators in a way could almost be largely eliminated. Functioning more as a flesh and blood liaison between the computer's instructions, and the players themselves.