5 Conference Champions and 4 Playoff Spots!

[Duo]

Now that the BIG 12 has reinstated a Conference Championship after 7 years without one, 2017 will have 5 Conference Champions that have each played 13 games. Likely Playoff contenders could look like this:

SEC-Bama

ACC-Clemson or FSU

BIG10-PSU, UM or tOSU

BIG 12-OU

PAC 12-USC or Washington

Odd man out? Possibly ACC if FSU beats Clemson. Or BIG 10 if they take turns beating each other.

Question? Do you see any possible scenario for any outsiders and how that would play out?

 

[SALittleGiant513]

There goes Duo back on his bullshit. Man try harder to make friends.

 

[mbd11]

They need to go to 8 teams - the 5 major conference champions, plus 3 wild cards. Four just isn't enough.

As far as your question, if ND ran the table and went 11-1, we'd definitely be in the mix - especially if USC won the Pac-12, because we'd have the edge over them.

 

[Duo]

They need to go to 8 teams - the 5 major conference champions, plus 3 wild cards. Four just isn't enough.

As far as your question, if ND ran the table and went 11-1, we'd definitely be in the mix - especially if USC won the Pac-12, because we'd have the edge over them.

mbd...........

Good point. USC bottled up Texas' running game and Sam Darnold's passing kept USC in the game as the Trojans went on for a double OT win. A USC-Washington match up would be extremely interesting. And of course, where Georgia ends up being ranked could play a role as well.

The bye week prior to playing USC at home should be a big help.

 

[twalsh]

Now that the BIG 12 has reinstated a Conference Championship after 7 years without one, 2017 will have 5 Conference Champions that have each played 13 games. Likely Playoff contenders could look like this:

SEC-Bama

ACC-Clemson or FSU

BIG10-PSU, UM or tOSU

BIG 12-OU

PAC 12-USC or Washington

Odd man out? Possibly ACC if FSU beats Clemson. Or BIG 10 if they take turns beating each other.

Question? Do you see any possible scenario for any outsiders and how that would play out?

Have you not paid any attention to Oklahoma State?

 

[twalsh]

Now that the BIG 12 has reinstated a Conference Championship after 7 years without one, 2017 will have 5 Conference Champions that have each played 13 games. Likely Playoff contenders could look like this:

SEC-Bama

ACC-Clemson or FSU

BIG10-PSU, UM or tOSU

BIG 12-OU

PAC 12-USC or Washington

Odd man out? Possibly ACC if FSU beats Clemson. Or BIG 10 if they take turns beating each other.

Question? Do you see any possible scenario for any outsiders and how that would play out?

Georgia is an interesting team right now. Tennessee, Florida and South Carolina all have a loss already, with tough games still to play. Georgia may very well be playing their toughest SEC game of the year this Saturday against Miss State. If they win that one and run the table, as long as they don't lose too badly to Bama in the SECCG they could get in as a 12-1 outsider, depending on what happens in the other conferences.

 

[Duo]

Have you not paid any attention to Oklahoma State?

OU will play at OSU Nov. 4th. A lot riding on the outcome.

 

[ivan brunetti]

They need to go to 8 teams - the 5 major conference champions, plus 3 wild cards. Four just isn't enough.

As far as your question, if ND ran the table and went 11-1, we'd definitely be in the mix - especially if USC won the Pac-12, because we'd have the edge over them.

The problem with 8 teams is that you will have a lot of 2 & 3 loss teams getting in. Really kind of guts the "every game matters" aspect of the regular season IMO. Also, a longer season may be better for the fans but it is not better for the players.

 

[mbd11]

The problem with 8 teams is that you will have a lot of 2 & 3 loss teams getting in. Really kind of guts the "every game matters" aspect of the regular season IMO. Also, a longer season may be better for the fans but it is not better for the players.

There would be some 2-loss teams, but usually there aren't many 3-loss teams in the top 8, although one could win its conference. But in the first three years, there's been some deserving teams left out already - Baylor and TCU (11-1, Big 12 co-champs) in 2014, and Penn State last year come to mind.

As far as adding an extra game to the season, FCS already has a 24-team playoff, and the finalists in that played 15 and 16 games, respectively, last year. So they seem to deal with it fine.

 

[Syd4ND]

Now that the BIG 12 has reinstated a Conference Championship after 7 years without one, 2017 will have 5 Conference Champions that have each played 13 games. Likely Playoff contenders could look like this:

SEC-Bama

ACC-Clemson or FSU

BIG10-PSU, UM or tOSU

BIG 12-OU

PAC 12-USC or Washington

Odd man out? Possibly ACC if FSU beats Clemson. Or BIG 10 if they take turns beating each other.

Question? Do you see any possible scenario for any outsiders and how that would play out?

FSU? FSU?

 

[ivan brunetti]

As far as adding an extra game to the season, FCS already has a 24-team playoff, and the finalists in that played 15 and 16 games, respectively, last year. So they seem to deal with it fine.

I don't agree that Penn State was deserving last year. They not only lost, they were BLOWN out.

And FCS teams aren't the ones putting pressure on their schools to be paid as professionals. I don't think the ADs will be willing to rock the boat. Football pays for a ton of other sports. They don't want to risk that.

 

[NDIRISH53]

I think I'm the only fan of the 4 team playoffs. Makes every game a must win!

 

[Duo]

I think I'm the only fan of the 4 team playoffs. Makes every game a must win!

53.........

Do you think the 4 team format puts ND at a disadvantage compared to Conference Champions? In other words, if you were on the Playoff Committee who would you vote for, a team that was 11-1 or a team that was 12-1?

 

[NDEwing18]

53.........

Do you think the 4 team format puts ND at a disadvantage compared to Conference Champions? In other words, if you were on the Playoff Committee who would you vote for, a team that was 11-1 or a team that was 12-1?

If I were on the playoff committee, I would engage in a deeper analysis than the one you're posing.

 

[topdecktiger]

If I were on the playoff committee, I would engage in a deeper analysis than the one you're posing.

They do, but conference championships are specifically factored into their analysis.

 

[NDEwing18]

They do, but conference championships are specifically factored into their analysis.

So are a number of other things.

 

[88ND]

There would be some 2-loss teams, but usually there aren't many 3-loss teams in the top 8, although one could win its conference. But in the first three years, there's been some deserving teams left out already - Baylor and TCU (11-1, Big 12 co-champs) in 2014, and Penn State last year come to mind.

As far as adding an extra game to the season, FCS already has a 24-team playoff, and the finalists in that played 15 and 16 games, respectively, last year. So they seem to deal with it fine.

The problem is the same problem that's been there for decades.

The fat cat arrogant executives of these bowl games will never diminish the importance of "their" bowl.

No matter the blue print you show them they somehow think it will hurt thus amazing stature of their bowl.

The only reason the rose bowl participated in the present day playoff was if they cooukd still keep their pac 12 Vs big ten game.

 

[twalsh]

53.........

Do you think the 4 team format puts ND at a disadvantage compared to Conference Champions? In other words, if you were on the Playoff Committee who would you vote for, a team that was 11-1 or a team that was 12-1?

And the team that is 11-1 won nothing but 11 games, while the 12-1 team won a conference championship. Anyone who thinks it doesn't make a difference is kidding themselves.

 

[XGoBearcatsX]

ND schedule SOS is typically top 5 or 10. That will and should be a deciding factor not that a 12th win came over Delaware State, Louisiana Monroe or worse.

 

[88ND]

And the team that is 11-1 won nothing but 11 games, while the 12-1 team won a conference championship. Anyone who thinks it doesn't make a difference is kidding themselves.

It does to a point.

If the 11-1 team is dominating without a doubt for all those wins it absolutely must be factored in.

Example...if we beat a USC team by two plus scores and the rest of our schedule by dominating numbers it must be looked at.

That's a lot of ifs but it can happen.
Moreover until the Big 12 proves it can play defense it will risk being left out again.

All we can do now is win out and see what happens. Our chances increase significantly if we win out by some big lopsided scores against some decent material.
A second loss seals outside looking in.

 

[topdecktiger]

So are a number of other things.

Right, and conference championships are part of that mix.

 

[Duo]

SOS could be a factor but it depends on which SOS you are looking at.........here are three examples for 2017 comparing ND and FSU, two teams with playoff and/or major Bowl aspirations.

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/ranking/schedule-strength-by-other (ND-31, FSU-1)

http://www.fbschedules.com/2017/08/2017-college-football-strength-of-schedule-rankings-espn-fpi/. (ND-22, FSU-13)

https://athlonsports.com/college-football/ranking-college-footballs-top-25-toughest-schedules-2017. (ND-13, FSU-2)

 

[mbd11]

A precedent was set last year, with Ohio State being chosen at 11-1, lacking a conference championship. So that's good for us. However, they weren't competing with a 12-1 conference champion for that spot; they were competing with an 11-2 conference champion that they had lost to.

But the Committee apparently chose them based on their overall resume being better, despite their HTH loss and lack of a conference title.

 

[NDEwing18]

Right, and conference championships are part of that mix.

I don't think I said otherwise. Obviously they're part of the mix. But so is who you played in general, and considering that an 11-1 team got in the playoffs last year vs. that team's own conference champion, I'm not too worried about how much conference championships count.

 

[topdecktiger]

I don't think I said otherwise. Obviously they're part of the mix. But so is who you played in general, and considering that an 11-1 team got in the playoffs last year vs. that team's own conference champion, I'm not too worried about how much conference championships count.

I know you didn't say otherwise. My point is, right off the bat, that's one gun you don't have in the holster.

That 11-1 team got in over a 2-loss team. Hasn't exactly erased the conference championship issue.

 

[NDIRISH53]

53.........

Do you think the 4 team format puts ND at a disadvantage compared to Conference Champions? In other words, if you were on the Playoff Committee who would you vote for, a team that was 11-1 or a team that was 12-1?

All depends on strength of schedule

 

[baron100]

ND schedule SOS is typically top 5 or 10. That will and should be a deciding factor not that a 12th win came over Delaware State, Louisiana Monroe or worse.

Not even close, that's the problem. Last year we were in the mid to high 30's. 20 years ago this was true but not now

 

[88ND]

Not even close, that's the problem. Last year we were in the mid to high 30's. 20 years ago this was true but not now

That's true. Having to rotate playing six ACC teams or whatever sort of limits the scheduling we can do.

Before aside from MSU, USC, Navy, and Pitt we scheduled all sorts of tough teams.

It's just not possible any more and that sucks.

 

[Irish2684]

I think the one thing an 8-team playoff involving the power 5 conference champs and 3 wild cards will do is eliminate all these crappy non conference games we have to watch so much. It won't matter if you lose a couple in the non conference because all you have to do is win your conference and you are in the playoffs.

We would be able to see power conference vs power conference games for 3-4 weeks of the non conference schedule instead of having to watch these cupcake games that are on all the time. There are usually only 3-4 games a Saturday that are worth a damn to watch because the mismatch is so great. Imagine Saturdays filled with 15-20 quality intriguing matchups for the entire non conference schedule? I think that would be great for college football.

 

[ivan brunetti]

And the team that is 11-1 won nothing but 11 games, while the 12-1 team won a conference championship. Anyone who thinks it doesn't make a difference is kidding themselves.

Sure. But an undefeated conference team could lose its conference championship game and then get bounced from the playoff. It works both ways.

 

[deadirishpoet]

Now that the BIG 12 has reinstated a Conference Championship after 7 years without one, 2017 will have 5 Conference Champions that have each played 13 games. Likely Playoff contenders could look like this:

SEC-Bama

ACC-Clemson or FSU

BIG10-PSU, UM or tOSU

BIG 12-OU

PAC 12-USC or Washington

Odd man out? Possibly ACC if FSU beats Clemson. Or BIG 10 if they take turns beating each other.

Question? Do you see any possible scenario for any outsiders and how that would play out?

There's only 3 spots
Ohio State is an automatic invite.
See 2016

 

[Duo]

There's only 3 spots
Ohio State is an automatic invite.
See 2016

Poet...........

You bring up a good point. Out of the 13 members of the Playoff Selection Committee 10 of them are in some way connected with the Power 5 Conferences. It seems fairly obvious how the voting would go in the event of a tie or close call situation. Does anyone not agree that the Power 5 Conferences have an edge in playoff selection?

 

[NDAFArly]

Okay.
So if ND beats USC (their only loss) & ND finishes 11-1, USC 12-1 with a PAC12 Title.
ND beats Miami (same scenario as above) & they win the ACC at 12-1.
ND beats MSU (same scenario) and they win the Big10 at 12-1.

Those are all examples that an 11-1 ND would go in over a conference winner with one loss this year.

The most likely is ND running the table & USC also running the table (with loss to ND).
How could ND not make the CFP on that scenario, especially if UGA wins the SECEast.

 

[ivan brunetti]

Okay.
So if ND beats USC (their only loss) & ND finishes 11-1, USC 12-1 with a PAC12 Title.
ND beats Miami (same scenario as above) & they win the ACC at 12-1.
ND beats MSU (same scenario) and they win the Big10 at 12-1.

Those are all examples that an 11-1 ND would go in over a conference winner with one loss this year.

The most likely is ND running the table & USC also running the table (with loss to ND).
How could ND not make the CFP on that scenario, especially if UGA wins the SECEast.

Head to head settles things when two 11-0 teams meet. When a 10-1 and an 11-0 team meet, head to head can just pull the 10-1 team into a tie (assuming similar SOS & overall MOV).

 

[SiberianKnightmare]

These arguments are pointless. Trying to predict what a panel of 11 or so people will do when they have no set criteria for the decision making is a waste of time.

 

[XGoBearcatsX]

Okay.
So if ND beats USC (their only loss) & ND finishes 11-1, USC 12-1 with a PAC12 Title.
ND beats Miami (same scenario as above) & they win the ACC at 12-1.
ND beats MSU (same scenario) and they win the Big10 at 12-1.

Those are all examples that an 11-1 ND would go in over a conference winner with one loss this year.

The most likely is ND running the table & USC also running the table (with loss to ND).
How could ND not make the CFP on that scenario, especially if UGA wins the SECEast.

So you would certainly expect head to head matter,but all here will remember ND's fairly dominating win over FSU in 1993 when the NC was gifted to Bowden when both finished with one loss.

 

[mbd11]

Poet...........

You bring up a good point. Out of the 13 members of the Playoff Selection Committee 10 of them are in some way connected with the Power 5 Conferences. It seems fairly obvious how the voting would go in the event of a tie or close call situation. Does anyone not agree that the Power 5 Conferences have an edge in playoff selection?

I think they do. We're at a disadvantage, because we can't win a conference. But it's a self-imposed disadvantage.

 

[NDAFArly]

Head to head settles things when two 11-0 teams meet. When a 10-1 and an 11-0 team meet, head to head can just pull the 10-1 team into a tie (assuming similar SOS & overall MOV).

No. It gives them the same record with tiebreaker going to head to head. See LSU/Bama. OSU/UM, USC/Stanford, OU/TT, etc...

 

[ivan brunetti]

No. It gives them the same record with tiebreaker going to head to head. See LSU/Bama. OSU/UM, USC/Stanford, OU/TT, etc...

Not always. You can't have a "tie breaker" when teams aren't tied prior to playing.

 

[Duo]

I think they do. We're at a disadvantage, because we can't win a conference. But it's a self-imposed disadvantage.

Mbd11.........

"self imposed". fair enough and well put.

OK we've fairly well covered the playoffs.

Now, since only 8 teams will be invited a more likely scenario will be.............how do you think the voting/invitations will go for the New Years Day 6 Bowls? That's the next 12 teams (rounding out the top 20) in the event of ties in W/L records?