2018 College Football Playoff Committee Thread

[SiberianKnightmare]

ND won their consolation game last year. got news for you, other than the top 4 the rest are all playing in consolation games.

The Citrus Bowl is not a NY6 bowl game, you dope. ND has never won one or a BCS "consolation game".

Seriously, you're so obnoxiously arrogant about "consolation games". Meanwhile, your team hasn't sniffed winning a...I guess..."non-consolation game" in 30 years.

 

[SiberianKnightmare]

can't see how thats the case. 100 or so other teams would trade places in a heartbeat. again, you can't win a championship if you're not playing for it. i'll pass on the participation trophy.

It's been 30 years. Maybe you shouldn't be passing on anything.

 

[echowaker]

I never said they would prefer to lose. You added that in. I said that they would still get in if they lost early. LIKE THEY DID LAST YEAR. You added in the "strategy" part. You literally added something in that I didn't say and then criticized me for it.

And I am the lunatic?

you're correct. saying they are in if they lose Saturday is a stretch in my opinion. LSU runs the table, in. clemson undefeated,in. ND undefeated,in. Michigan runs the table,in.

 

[echowaker]

The Citrus Bowl is not a NY6 bowl game, you dope. ND has never won one or a BCS "consolation game".

Seriously, you're so obnoxiously arrogant about "consolation games". Meanwhile, your team hasn't sniffed winning a...I guess..."non-consolation game" in 30 years.

sorry all non playoff games are consolation games. they are for teams not playing for the championship. really not that hard to figure out.

 

[echowaker]

It's been 30 years. Maybe you shouldn't be passing on anything.

ND is doing just fine thanks. Go Temple !

 

[irontooth123]

How would LSU be #1 after beating Bama? The same way they are #3 with 1 loss right now. Seems obvious to me that they are valuing big wins higher than one loss.

If they beat Bama , they deserve to be #1. It is simple. Quality wins, SOS, and beating Bama.

 

[irontooth123]

can't see how thats the case. 100 or so other teams would trade places in a heartbeat. again, you can't win a championship if you're not playing for it. i'll pass on the participation trophy.

I agree Echo. I would rather get blown out in a meaningful game, per the scenario of this poster, than play in some 2nd tier bowl. Anyone wanting ND to play in the Enron Bowl instead of a playoff game is either insane or just plain stupid.

 

[ivan brunetti]

ND won their consolation game last year. got news for you, other than the top 4 the rest are all playing in consolation games.

If you think there is no difference between the AutoNation Cure Bowl and the Rose Bowl, then you must think there is no difference between going 6-6 and 11-1.

 

[echowaker]

If you think there is no difference between the AutoNation Cure Bowl and the Rose Bowl, then you must think there is no difference between going 6-6 and 11-1.

well the payout is certainly different . i understand the big 10s death grip on the Rose Bowl. The luster is long gone for those games. For me as a college football fan any game not in the playoff carries the same significance. its teams playing that have not qualified for the championship in games with a lot of empty seats.. footballs version of the NIT. that said, i still watch as many as i can. the playoff has certainly changed my perception. no team starting their season has a non playoff game as their goal.

 

[ivan brunetti]

well the payout is certainly different . i understand the big 10s death grip on the Rose Bowl. The luster is long gone for those games. For me as a college football fan any game not in the playoff carries the same significance. its teams playing that have not qualified for the championship in games with a lot of empty seats.. footballs version of the NIT. that said, i still watch as many as i can. the playoff has certainly changed my perception. no team starting their season has a non playoff game as their goal.

No empty seats in the Rose Bowl if either ND or Michigan was playing.

 

[tbonesays]

How in the hell will lsu be #1 if(which aint going to happen) they beat Ala? They lost to Fla for gods sake. Fla is not that good with two losses(yes KY is way overrated also). NO way in hell do they jump an undefeated Clemson. For that matter they have no reason to be ahead of ND. This whole popularity contest and love of the SEC is a fricking joke.

The SEC is so tough that losing to Florida is as good as beating VaTech.

 

[chitown sot]

If they beat Bama , they deserve to be #1. It is simple. Quality wins, SOS, and beating Bama.

They lost to fricking Florida. It really doesn't matter lsu offense blows. No way will they hang with ala.

 

[echowaker]

No empty seats in the Rose Bowl if either ND or Michigan was playing.

i was talking about as a whole. matchups are a huge factor in determining attendance.

 

[mfischer21]

First official playoff ranking is released 10-30-2018.

Here are the playoff contenders as per fivethirtyeight.com playoff predictor tool (percentages reflect chance to get into 2018 playoff):

1. Clemson, 83%
2. Alabama, 69%
3. Notre Dame, 52%
4. Oklahoma, 26%
5. Michigan, 25%
6. Ohio State, 22%
7. Georgia, 21%
8. LSU, 16%
9. Texas, 13%
10. West Virginia, 10%
11. Florida, 10%
12. Washington, 10%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-college-football-predictions/

SIAP... but this is also fivethirtyeight, claiming that if Bama, Clem, OSU and OU and ND all won out... ND would be out. The predictor tools are a bit bogus if you ask me:

https://thespun.com/college-football/notre-dame-12-0-playoff-miss

 

[chaseball]

SIAP... but this is also fivethirtyeight, claiming that if Bama, Clem, OSU and OU and ND all won out... ND would be out. The predictor tools are a bit bogus if you ask me:

https://thespun.com/college-football/notre-dame-12-0-playoff-miss

It's just a computer formula that gives us an idea of how the playoff picture would play out .. it's far from an exact science.

If the tool says those 5 programs would all be within a close percentage of each other if they all won out, i would look at that as "the playoff committee would have a tough decision to make" in other words don't look at the data so precisely .. use it to get more of a relative sense of how things are going to play out. And i'm not sure the playoff committee would move any 1 loss team ahead of ND if all of those 5 teams won out. the cache of a 12-0 record still holds a lot more weight than the playoff predictor tool is giving it credit for.

the good news is ND has a couple of really easy games the final 2 weeks (Syracuse is way overrated like much of the other ranked teams ND has played this season) so their chance of winning out is statistically higher than much of their competition. ND is in a really good position right now (a lot of external factors is on their side).

 

[tbonesays]

SIAP... but this is also fivethirtyeight, claiming that if Bama, Clem, OSU and OU and ND all won out... ND would be out. The predictor tools are a bit bogus if you ask me:

https://thespun.com/college-football/notre-dame-12-0-playoff-miss

I don't think 538 uses name recognition in his program. He likely insists on a mathematical explanation for everything, and thus has to write a formula that explains why undefeated UCF was passed over by 1 loss teams. Said formula is unaware that it does not apply to a undefeated ND.

 

[mfischer21]

It's just a computer formula that gives us an idea of how the playoff picture would play out .. it's far from an exact science.

If the tool says those 5 programs would all be within a close percentage of each other if they all won out, i would look at that as "the playoff committee would have a tough decision to make" in other words don't look at the data so precisely .. use it to get more of a relative sense of how things are going to play out. And i'm not sure the playoff committee would move any 1 loss team ahead of ND if all of those 5 teams won out. the cache of a 12-0 record still holds a lot more weight than the playoff predictor tool is giving it credit for.

the good news is ND has a couple of really easy games the final 2 weeks (Syracuse is way overrated like much of the other ranked teams ND has played this season) so their chance of winning out is statistically higher than much of their competition. ND is in a really good position right now (a lot of external factors is on their side).

While I understand it's not an exact science, the idea that it's projecting (however narrowly) such an unlikely scenario (in my opinion obviously) is grounds for criticism of the model. I think you'd be very hard pressed to find an analyst that would seriously back the view that ND would sit home while OSU and OU got in with one loss. I think it's another example of how these statistical models remain faulty predictors.

 

[chaseball]

While I understand it's not an exact science, the idea that it's projecting (however narrowly) such an unlikely scenario (in my opinion obviously) is grounds for criticism of the model. I think you'd be very hard pressed to find an analyst that would seriously back the view that ND would sit home while OSU and OU got in with one loss. I think it's another example of how these statistical models remain faulty predictors.

The system offers a really great picture/likelihood of outcomes .. you just have to account for the weakness in the systems (because they are computer/automatically generated). In this case, i think most humans are in agreement that a 12-0 season would hold more weight than a 12-1 conference champion with the playoff committee at this point. But even then we aren't certain.

I guess the bigger point here is that comprehensive systems that are computer generated offer really good objective analysis in a lot of cases -- you just have to know where the systems are weak so you can fill in the gaps with human logic.

 

[mfischer21]

The system offers a really great picture/likelihood of outcomes .. you just have to account for the weakness in the systems (because they are computer/automatically generated). In this case, i think most humans are in agreement that a 12-0 season would hold more weight than a 12-1 conference champion with the playoff committee at this point. But even then we aren't certain.

I guess the bigger point here is that comprehensive systems that are computer generated offer really good objective analysis in a lot of cases -- you just have to know where the systems are weak so you can fill in the gaps with human logic.

You are kind of making my point. When you use these systems the typical CFB fan, or even the typical committee member, is unlikely to be able to discern what inherent weaknesses lie within these sorts of mathematical algorithms. In this case you have a glaring anomaly that most folks can easily spot. But it begs the question how many lesser anomalies go unchecked or unnoticed? I realize this is just a predictor tool... but it is essentially the same type of complex analytical tool that provides us with SOS, SOR, and myriad other modern analytical rankings. I just find them all hard to trust.