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2018 College Football Playoff Committee Thread

chaseball

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First official playoff ranking is released 10-30-2018.

Here are the playoff contenders as per fivethirtyeight.com playoff predictor tool (percentages reflect chance to get into 2018 playoff):

1. Clemson, 83%
2. Alabama, 69%
3. Notre Dame, 52%
4. Oklahoma, 26%
5. Michigan, 25%
6. Ohio State, 22%
7. Georgia, 21%
8. LSU, 16%
9. Texas, 13%
10. West Virginia, 10%
11. Florida, 10%
12. Washington, 10%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-college-football-predictions/
 
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First playoff reveal is 10-30-2018.

Here are the playoff contenders as per fivethirtyeight.com playoff predictor tool (percentages reflect chance to get into 2018 playoff):

1. Clemson, 83%
2. Alabama, 69%
3. Notre Dame, 52%
4. Oklahoma, 26%
5. Michigan, 25%
6. Ohio State, 22%
7. Georgia, 21%
8. LSU, 16%
9. Texas, 13%
10. West Virginia, 10%
11. Florida, 10%
12. Washington, 10%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-college-football-predictions/

What was 538s prediction on the 2016 presidential election?
 
After saturday's games:

1. Clemson, 85%
2. Alabama, 68%
3. Notre Dame, 52%
4. Oklahoma, 37%
5. Georgia, 33%
6. OSU, 25%
7. Michigan, 24%
8. LSU, 17%
9. Washington State, 14%
10. West Virginia, 8%

Utah, Kentucky, UCF still outside shots if complete chaos ensues in the top 10 with 8% respectively.

12-1 Georgia, OSU, or Oklahoma can still really make a case so will be very interesting to see how the playoff committee ranks/evaluates these teams through 8 weeks. Notre Dame is undefeated, but the playoff committee is more concerned with getting the top 4 teams into the playoff and record is only 1 tool of many they use to determine who those teams are.
 
I could see them propping LSU up into the initial top 4 only knowing the big game this weekend will sort it out between them and Bama.

I will take a stab at what the committee will have Tuesday night
1 Alabama
2 Clemson
3 LSU
4 ND
 
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After saturday's games:

1. Clemson, 85%
2. Alabama, 68%
3. Notre Dame, 52%
4. Oklahoma, 37%
5. Georgia, 33%
6. OSU, 25%
7. Michigan, 24%
8. LSU, 17%
9. Washington State, 14%
10. West Virginia, 8%

Utah, Kentucky, UCF still outside shots if complete chaos ensues in the top 10 with 8% respectively.

12-1 Georgia, OSU, or Oklahoma can still really make a case so will be very interesting to see how the playoff committee ranks/evaluates these teams through 8 weeks. Notre Dame is undefeated, but the playoff committee is more concerned with getting the top 4 teams into the playoff and record is only 1 tool of many they use to determine who those teams are.

The record largely dictates everything.

There is a reason that every undefeated P5 team has made the playoffs and no 2-loss team has ever made it.

All the other stuff is used to separate the 1-loss teams from each other.
 
The record largely dictates everything.

There is a reason that every undefeated P5 team has made the playoffs and no 2-loss team has ever made it.

All the other stuff is used to separate the 1-loss teams from each other.
The interesting conversation I was having this weekend with a Georgia fan is this situation

ND and Clemson win out (both in)
Georgia and Alabama win out but Bama loses to Georgia in a close fought SEC Championship Game
UM wins out
Hell throw in OK wins out

Right now UM is ahead of Georgia and OK is right behind.

Question is, does Georgia with one bad loss (by a lot of points to good opponent) get in over Alabama? Does UM get in, Does OK?

I was of the opinion in this situation that it's ND, Clemson 100% in, UM 90% in because of the best loss first game of the year, Alabama 50% in because they've been number one all year and best team and it's Bama/Saba/last years champion, georgia 40% in because they just beat the #1 team, Ok 10% because they won out after a tough loss to solid Texas Team in rivalry game.

Thoughts? The question is really, both Georgia an Bama get in over UM, or one and which one?
 
The interesting conversation I was having this weekend with a Georgia fan is this situation

ND and Clemson win out (both in)
Georgia and Alabama win out but Bama loses to Georgia in a close fought SEC Championship Game
UM wins out
Hell throw in OK wins out

Right now UM is ahead of Georgia and OK is right behind.

Question is, does Georgia with one bad loss (by a lot of points to good opponent) get in over Alabama? Does UM get in, Does OK?

I was of the opinion in this situation that it's ND, Clemson 100% in, UM 90% in because of the best loss first game of the year, Alabama 50% in because they've been number one all year and best team and it's Bama/Saba/last years champion, georgia 40% in because they just beat the #1 team, Ok 10% because they won out after a tough loss to solid Texas Team in rivalry game.

Thoughts? The question is really, both Georgia an Bama get in over UM, or one and which one?
If Georgia wins the SEC Champ game over Bama there is no way they are not in before Bama gets in. In that situation with a Win over LSU and just general schedule overal would put Bama in over OU and the eye test is probably enough to get them past Michigan, although that would be close. It would have to depend on how the committee looked at the top end wins since both teams would have one loss to a playoff team already.
 
If Georgia wins the SEC Champ game over Bama there is no way they are not in before Bama gets in. In that situation with a Win over LSU and just general schedule overal would put Bama in over OU and the eye test is probably enough to get them past Michigan, although that would be close. It would have to depend on how the committee looked at the top end wins since both teams would have one loss to a playoff team already.
I don't know, I think the committee really likes Bama, and they won it all last year. A 1 loss Bama in a close game vs a 1 loss Georgia with a blow out loss to LSU. If UM wins out, no way they take two from the SEC. I would like to see harbaugh's reaction though.
 
I don't know, I think the committee really likes Bama, and they won it all last year. A 1 loss Bama in a close game vs a 1 loss Georgia with a blow out loss to LSU. If UM wins out, no way they take two from the SEC. I would like to see harbaugh's reaction though.
They will favor the head to head if it happened the week before. Georgia will have 3 wins over teams in the top 25 of the Playoffs (Bama, Florida, Kentucky) and Bama is going to have 1. Georgia if they win out and beat Bama in the SEC champ game is in, what the hell are you smoking? If anything, assuming you are right and the committee loves Bama so much that they will do all kinds of mental gymnastics to get them in the that means ND will be the 4th seed justifying their spot over Michigan with their head to head. Either way Michigan is going to be the one sweating that scenario not Georgia.
 
I'm smoking common sense and historical precedence. Committee favorites like Bama and OSU have been in the playoff without winning their conference

Bama is by far the number one team in the nation by every statistic possible. If they lose to Georgia by say a FG you have 3 teams with one loss. UM vs ND by a TD at ND a team in the playoff, Bama by a fg to a good Georgia team, and Georgia by 20 to LSU in a game they were dominated in. One of those stands out over the others. I get head to head, but the committee is trying to find the top 4 teams. OSU's loss at Purdue especially and Georgia's but whipping at LSU are close to eliminating them if ND, UM, and Clemson win out.

Alabama lost their last game last year and got in.
 
I don't know, I think the committee really likes Bama, and they won it all last year. A 1 loss Bama in a close game vs a 1 loss Georgia with a blow out loss to LSU. If UM wins out, no way they take two from the SEC. I would like to see harbaugh's reaction though.
Agreed. I think basically both Bama and UGA would get in. Committee and ESPN love the SEC.
 
I'm smoking common sense and historical precedence. Committee favorites like Bama and OSU have been in the playoff without winning their conference

Bama is by far the number one team in the nation by every statistic possible. If they lose to Georgia by say a FG you have 3 teams with one loss. UM vs ND by a TD at ND a team in the playoff, Bama by a fg to a good Georgia team, and Georgia by 20 to LSU in a game they were dominated in. One of those stands out over the others. I get head to head, but the committee is trying to find the top 4 teams. OSU's loss at Purdue especially and Georgia's but whipping at LSU are close to eliminating them if ND, UM, and Clemson win out.

Alabama lost their last game last year and got in.
They arent going to get in over the conference champ that defeated them. In that situation Bama/Michigan or Michigan/ND is going to be the fight for the last sport. Georgia would have the best resume considering wins over any of the playoff teams.
 
Agreed. I think basically both Bama and UGA would get in. Committee and ESPN love the SEC.

In that scenario, I don't think Bama gets in. Because they'd lack a conference championship, which is one of the criteria. Last year, they only got in because the Pac and Big 10 both had 2-loss champions.
 
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The interesting conversation I was having this weekend with a Georgia fan is this situation

ND and Clemson win out (both in)
Georgia and Alabama win out but Bama loses to Georgia in a close fought SEC Championship Game
UM wins out
Hell throw in OK wins out

Right now UM is ahead of Georgia and OK is right behind.

Question is, does Georgia with one bad loss (by a lot of points to good opponent) get in over Alabama? Does UM get in, Does OK?

I was of the opinion in this situation that it's ND, Clemson 100% in, UM 90% in because of the best loss first game of the year, Alabama 50% in because they've been number one all year and best team and it's Bama/Saba/last years champion, georgia 40% in because they just beat the #1 team, Ok 10% because they won out after a tough loss to solid Texas Team in rivalry game.

Thoughts? The question is really, both Georgia an Bama get in over UM, or one and which one?

ND, Clemson, Georgia are 100% in, in that scenario....with Michigan and Oklahoma fighting for the other spot as 1 loss conference champs with good wins.

Alabama would be 100% out.....and the crying would be glorious.
 
If Georgia wins the SEC Champ game over Bama there is no way they are not in before Bama gets in. In that situation with a Win over LSU and just general schedule overal would put Bama in over OU and the eye test is probably enough to get them past Michigan, although that would be close. It would have to depend on how the committee looked at the top end wins since both teams would have one loss to a playoff team already.
I don't know, I think the committee really likes Bama, and they won it all last year. A 1 loss Bama in a close game vs a 1 loss Georgia with a blow out loss to LSU. If UM wins out, no way they take two from the SEC. I would like to see harbaugh's reaction though.

No way the committee would make the clear statement:
"We don't care about the results on the field at all, we had already decided Bama was in before games were even played"

That would be the last year the committee would be used. You'd see full scale revolt across the nation.

Bama would be out 100% guaranteed, if only due to the committee's desire for self-preservation.
 
I'm smoking common sense and historical precedence. Committee favorites like Bama and OSU have been in the playoff without winning their conference

Bama is by far the number one team in the nation by every statistic possible. If they lose to Georgia by say a FG you have 3 teams with one loss. UM vs ND by a TD at ND a team in the playoff, Bama by a fg to a good Georgia team, and Georgia by 20 to LSU in a game they were dominated in. One of those stands out over the others. I get head to head, but the committee is trying to find the top 4 teams. OSU's loss at Purdue especially and Georgia's but whipping at LSU are close to eliminating them if ND, UM, and Clemson win out.

Alabama lost their last game last year and got in.

There weren't 2 undefeated teams plus 3 other 1-loss conference champions last year.....so that's a meaningless comment.

Hell, Alabama almost got left out for a 2-loss conference champ last year
 
No way the committee would make the clear statement:
"We don't care about the results on the field at all, we had already decided Bama was in before games were even played"

That would be the last year the committee would be used. You'd see full scale revolt across the nation.

Bama would be out 100% guaranteed, if only due to the committee's desire for self-preservation.
If you look at the 13 game resume of alabama or georgia then the committee can state the play on the field was the determining factor, not one game outcome. Georgia was absolutely awful vs LSU. Alabama until they lose will be the massive favorites in every game because they are that good, if they have one little brain fart against georgia and lose a close one the committee has a tough decision. Bama is over 2 score favorite vs LSU, that shows how good they are.

If there is a 1 loss Georgia, Bama, UM to pick two, all 3 will have a very very good case, and Georgia will by far have the worst loss, but the best win.
 
If you look at the 13 game resume of alabama or georgia then the committee can state the play on the field was the determining factor, not one game outcome. Georgia was absolutely awful vs LSU. Alabama until they lose will be the massive favorites in every game because they are that good, if they have one little brain fart against georgia and lose a close one the committee has a tough decision. Bama is over 2 score favorite vs LSU, that shows how good they are.

If there is a 1 loss Georgia, Bama, UM to pick two, all 3 will have a very very good case, and Georgia will by far have the worst loss, but the best win.

Nothing you've said here even begins to address what I said, which is why Alabama would be 100% out in that sitaution (no questions asked, not even close)

No way the committee would make the clear statement:
"We don't care about the results on the field at all, we had already decided Bama was in before games were even played"

That would be the last year the committee would be used. You'd see full scale revolt across the nation.

Bama would be out 100% guaranteed, if only due to the committee's desire for self-preservation.
 
Nothing you've said here even begins to address what I said, which is why Alabama would be 100% out in that sitaution (no questions asked, not even close)

No way the committee would make the clear statement:
"We don't care about the results on the field at all, we had already decided Bama was in before games were even played"

That would be the last year the committee would be used. You'd see full scale revolt across the nation.

Bama would be out 100% guaranteed, if only due to the committee's desire for self-preservation.

If georgia blows Alabama out then your statement would be warranted. How the game plays out vs georgia is crucial. Fluke play, lucky play, bad call, last second fg, there's a lot of ways alabama could lose and not all are created equal when opinions are involved. In this case they are, it's not done by a computer.

The committee absolutely could come out and say, "the entire body of work of alabama resulted in our team coming to the conclusion that Alabama is more deserving than georgia. We respect georgia, and appreciate their SEC championship, but they will not be competing for a national championship. Their loss to LSU was in such a fashion that we can not jump them over the entire body of work of Clemson, ND, UM, and Alabama. None of those teams had such a bad loss on their resume".

At this point in time, and if ALabama is undefeated and only loses a tight one to georgia, NO ONE can say they don't think they are one of the best 4 teams. Precedent has been set that you don't need to win a conf championship, or even play in one.
 
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If georgia blows Alabama out then your statement would be warranted. How the game plays out vs georgia is crucial. Fluke play, lucky play, bad call, last second fg, there's a lot of ways alabama could lose and not all are created equal when opinions are involved. In this case they are, it's not done by a computer.

The committee absolutely could come out and say, "the entire body of work of alabama resulted in our team coming to the conclusion that Alabama is more deserving than georgia. We respect georgia, and appreciate their SEC championship, but they will not be competing for a national championship. Their loss to LSU was in such a fashion that we can not jump them over the entire body of work of Clemson, ND, UM, and Alabama. None of those teams had such a bad loss on their resume".

At this point in time, and if ALabama is undefeated and only loses a tight one to georgia, NO ONE can say they don't think they are one of the best 4 teams. Precedent has been set that you don't need to win a conf championship, or even play in one.

Literally would be the end of the committee, overnight.

So no, they’d never do that, regardless of how the game went.

100% guarantee.
(And it’s oretty obvious)
 
Literally would be the end of the committee, overnight.

So no, they’d never do that, regardless of how the game went.

100% guarantee.
(And it’s oretty obvious)
If your logic is true, there is absolutely 0 reason for alabama to play in the game.
 
If your logic is true, there is absolutely 0 reason for alabama to play in the game.
That could be the next step in this process. You are not required to accept and play in a conf championship or a bowl game. An undefeated Alabama going into the SEC championship, if they can lose a close one and not get in the final 4, they have no reason to play in the conf championship.
 
If your logic is true, there is absolutely 0 reason for alabama to play in the game.

Accurate.
Every game for Alabama, from here in, is 100% downside....because they'd be in right now and games only give them a chance to lose (slim as it may be)

But they have to play them, in order to be eligible for the playoff. They don't get a choice in the matter.

Alabama can't lose and have enough undefeated P5 teams or 1-loss P5 conference champions to fill all 4 slots, or they'll be left out.
(purely for the self-preservation instincts of the committee)

Pretty simple.
 
If georgia blows Alabama out then your statement would be warranted. How the game plays out vs georgia is crucial. Fluke play, lucky play, bad call, last second fg, there's a lot of ways alabama could lose and not all are created equal when opinions are involved. In this case they are, it's not done by a computer.

The committee absolutely could come out and say, "the entire body of work of alabama resulted in our team coming to the conclusion that Alabama is more deserving than georgia. We respect georgia, and appreciate their SEC championship, but they will not be competing for a national championship. Their loss to LSU was in such a fashion that we can not jump them over the entire body of work of Clemson, ND, UM, and Alabama. None of those teams had such a bad loss on their resume".

At this point in time, and if ALabama is undefeated and only loses a tight one to georgia, NO ONE can say they don't think they are one of the best 4 teams. Precedent has been set that you don't need to win a conf championship, or even play in one.

But in the years when 1-loss non-conference champs got in (like last year), it was because there were multiple 2-loss conference champions. But conference championships are basically used as tiebreakers, for teams with an equal number of losses. And not only that, but they also have an easier schedule than Georgia this year. So In the OP's scenario, Alabama would definitely be out IMO.
 
If you look at the 13 game resume of alabama or georgia then the committee can state the play on the field was the determining factor, not one game outcome. Georgia was absolutely awful vs LSU. Alabama until they lose will be the massive favorites in every game because they are that good, if they have one little brain fart against georgia and lose a close one the committee has a tough decision. Bama is over 2 score favorite vs LSU, that shows how good they are.

If there is a 1 loss Georgia, Bama, UM to pick two, all 3 will have a very very good case, and Georgia will by far have the worst loss, but the best win.
In that scenario Georgia wouldn't only have the Best win, they likely would have 3 of the 5 best wins between those three teams with Bama having 1 (LSU) and Michigan having the other (Ohio St.). Your scenario also implies that a Bama loss to Georgia would be Bama's fault and not the result of a great game by Georgia which is a position that is questionable.
 
Here's the playoff committee's process/protocol/factors they consider while ranking/etc. Really interesting read (pasted a small portion below):

When circumstances at the margins indicate that teams are comparable, then the following criteria must be considered:
• Championships won
• Strength of schedule
• Head-to-head competition (if it occurred)
• Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory)

We believe that a committee of experts properly instructed (based on beliefs that the regular season is unique and must be preserved; and that championships won on the field and strength of schedule are important values that must be incorporated into the selection process) has very strong support throughout the college football community.

Under the current construct, polls (although well-intended) have not expressed these values; particularly at the margins where teams that have won head-to-head competition and championships are sometimes ranked behind non-champions and teams that have lost in head-to-head competition.

Nuanced mathematical formulas ignore some teams who “deserve” to be selected. As we expand from two teams to four teams, we want to establish a human selection committee that:
(1) will be provided a clear set of guidelines;
(2) will be expected to take the facts of each case and specifically apply the guidelines; and (3) will be led by a Chairperson who will be expected to explain publicly the committee’s decisions.

Some of the guidelines and protocols expected to be established to guide the committee would include, but not be limited to, the following:

• While it is understood that committee members will take into consideration all kinds of data including polls, committee members will be required to discredit polls wherein initial rankings are established before competition has occurred;
• Any polls that are taken into consideration by the selection committee must be completely open and transparent to the public;
• Strength of schedule, head-to-head competition and championships won must be specifically applied as tie-breakers between teams that look similar;
• Committee members associated with any team under consideration during the selection process will be required to recuse themselves from any deliberations associated with that team;

https://collegefootballplayoff.com/documents/2017/10/20//CFP_Selection_Committee_Protocol.pdf?id=23
 
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What was 538s prediction on the 2016 presidential election?

A couple days before the election Silber was blasted for giving Trump a 28% chance instead of the zero% consensus.

No way the committee would make the clear statement:
"We don't care about the results on the field at all, we had already decided Bama was in before games were even played"

That would be the last year the committee would be used. You'd see full scale revolt across the nation.

Bama would be out 100% guaranteed, if only due to the committee's desire for self-preservation.

The PC has more or less said exactly that on several occasions.
 
ND, Clemson, Georgia are 100% in, in that scenario....with Michigan and Oklahoma fighting for the other spot as 1 loss conference champs with good wins.

Alabama would be 100% out.....and the crying would be glorious.

I think you still just vote Bama at 4. I’d vote em over UM and Oklahoma no doubt about it.
 
My understanding is that the committee's job is to simply get the best 4 teams in the country in the playoffs.
I think some people may be giving the title of a conference championship too much weight here. If Bama, Oklahoma, and one of Michigan and Ohio State all have one loss and only Bama doesn't have a conference championship. Does that mean all of those teams with the conference title are indeed better than Bama? I don't think the committee would look at it that way. And what if ND has 1 loss and obviously no conference title? Should we assume that the 1 loss team with a conference title is better than ND?
 
I think you still just vote Bama at 4. I’d vote em over UM and Oklahoma no doubt about it.

You don’t have the entire system that you’re a part of on the line though. The committee does.

The reality is Alabama would never, ever get in if the above scenario played out… Just because of the committees sense of self-preservation. The whole system would be scrapped by next season if they put them in, in that situation.
 
I could see them propping LSU up into the initial top 4 only knowing the big game this weekend will sort it out between them and Bama.

I will take a stab at what the committee will have Tuesday night
1 Alabama
2 Clemson
3 LSU
4 ND
No way a one loss team jumps ND
 
My understanding is that the committee's job is to simply get the best 4 teams in the country in the playoffs.
I think some people may be giving the title of a conference championship too much weight here. If Bama, Oklahoma, and one of Michigan and Ohio State all have one loss and only Bama doesn't have a conference championship. Does that mean all of those teams with the conference title are indeed better than Bama? I don't think the committee would look at it that way. And what if ND has 1 loss and obviously no conference title? Should we assume that the 1 loss team with a conference title is better than ND?
1. OU, Ohio St and Michigan cant all have only 1 loss and a conference title.

2. If ND loses 1 game they will behind any of those 3 if they win their conference champ and only have 1 loss.
 
1. OU, Ohio St and Michigan cant all have only 1 loss and a conference title.

2. If ND loses 1 game they will behind any of those 3 if they win their conference champ and only have 1 loss.
1. If you took the time to read my post I said ONE of Ohio State and Michigan.

2. Didn't even answer my question. I asked can you assume that a one loss team with with a conference title is better than than a one loss ND? Wasn't asking if they'd be behind.
 
My prediction of the top 6 is as follows.

1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Notre Dame
4. LSU
5. Michigan
6. Georgia
This is what it should be, but they will likely have LSU 3rd. It seems that's the trendy pick on Espin right now, it will take care of itself when they get demolished this week.

People will say it doesn't matter but I'm telling you I want Clemson in that first game, I think it would be a close one. Playing Alabama with all that time to prepare would be a nightmare, and it won't do us any good getting in the playoff just to get smacked in the first game.
 
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