2016: Diminished Expectations...

[stu4don]

Last year, despite game inexperience at QB, I was hoping for a ten-win, major bowl season. Quietly, I had higher hopes (final four) given our experienced defense and superior offensive line. We nearly got there, even with all of those injuries.

This year, despite the best QB situation of the BK era, I'm thinking 8-9 wins tops. Why? I am very nervous about a defense that loses its best d-lineman in Day, best linebacker in Smith, best cover guy in Russell and best backside hitter in Shumate. Add to that losing their defensive QB, Schimdt, in BVG's overly complicated, hit or miss, system, I just don't see any improvement on that side of the ball. On offense it will be very hard to replace at top five NFL pick in Stanley, a round-three pick and senior leader in Martin, and now Elmer... Overall, I'm reminded of the year after our undefeated run before we lost Golson.

I love our young talent at the skill positions and the young OL players coming up and there is real potential on D but we are young and inexperienced this year. This year will be a real test for coach Kelly and his staff.

Of course I always quietly hope for an ND miracle and light a candle.

 

[pumpbeef]

And the Squirrels are back in the Attic......

 

[perseverare]

and 5 new starters on offense.

defense will not fall off much! how could it?

 

[NDCap]

Every team has to replace great players . I do think the defense will improve in some ways but no one can replace the presence of Jaylon Smith. Russell made a huge mistake he was shaking off the rust all year and got injured . I think Crawford will be a great CB next year. Schmidt was a leader but as a player was often and easily blocked . Morgan will be better . I do think the DE position will improve I think Trumbetti is going to be excellent . Day was a great player . great motor and leader. Jones and Tillery will bring a different dimension up front . both are 6-6 and going to be good interior pass rushers . IMO the entire secondary needs a new makeover in the way they play. Defense will be ok . The offense would have been great with Fuller but they have a lot of talent that none of us have seen yet. Guys like Jones and St. Brown need to emerge ASAP. Those 2 players can replace Fuller's loss. It will take some time but this team can get to the final 4. Just need some luck along the way.

 

[echowaker]

Last year, despite game inexperience at QB, I was hoping for a ten-win, major bowl season. Quietly, I had higher hopes (final four) given our experienced defense and superior offensive line. We nearly got there, even with all of those injuries.

This year, despite the best QB situation of the BK era, I'm thinking 8-9 wins tops. Why? I am very nervous about a defense that loses its best d-lineman in Day, best linebacker in Smith, best cover guy in Russell and best backside hitter in Shumate. Add to that losing their defensive QB, Schimdt, in BVG's overly complicated, hit or miss, system, I just don't see any improvement on that side of the ball. On offense it will be very hard to replace at top five NFL pick in Stanley, a round-three pick and senior leader in Martin, and now Elmer... Overall, I'm reminded of the year after our undefeated run before we lost Golson.

I love our young talent at the skill positions and the young OL players coming up and there is real potential on D but we are young and inexperienced this year. This year will be a real test for coach Kelly and his staff.

Of course I always quietly hope for an ND miracle and light a candle.

other than stanley i don't think they'll miss the other two. i actually think the young guys will be an upgrade. elmer was way too inconsistent and martin was adequate at best.

 

[stu4don]

and 5 new starters on offense.

defense will not fall off much! how could it?

Actually, it could, Pers... We did look good at times but it was the inconsistency that killed us.

On offense, I also like the new guys coming up on the O-line, but O-lines take time to develop a personality. Last year's was ND's best since 2012 (and maybe even better.) And we lose three top guys, guys who had the most experience. I am hopeful that by the end of the season they will be back to top form, but I think our QB's and RB's are going to have a different experience early. Could get ugly.

 

[iwish]

Always the sky is falling. Russell really didn't give us all that much for the majority of the season. Day, Smith and Stanley? Yes, they will be missed. As stated every team loses key players most every season. Our offense will be fine.

Our oval talent level continues to improve and we have to hope certain key people take advantage of their learn g, healing and opportunity. I believe we are a 10 win team for 2016.

 

[perseverare]

well, 9 looks like a good guess (as of now; pre season training might tell us more:
2 losses on team ( meet a better team and mistakes)
1 loss on staff decisions (come on it happens most every year, so count it in)

who do fans fear most on the schedule?

2017 is the schedule to worry about: 6-6 or 7-5 is realistic - on what we see now)
if ND goes 8-4 in '16 followed by a .500 year in '17 it could get testy among fans.
We would certainly hear a chorus of 'ifs" ! to excuse the matters!
Play like a Champion might be replaced by "If Only"
Yep, '17 is the key to the Kelly legacy; which way will the needle be pointing?

 

[88ND]

Last year, despite game inexperience at QB, I was hoping for a ten-win, major bowl season. Quietly, I had higher hopes (final four) given our experienced defense and superior offensive line. We nearly got there, even with all of those injuries.

This year, despite the best QB situation of the BK era, I'm thinking 8-9 wins tops. Why? I am very nervous about a defense that loses its best d-lineman in Day, best linebacker in Smith, best cover guy in Russell and best backside hitter in Shumate. Add to that losing their defensive QB, Schimdt, in BVG's overly complicated, hit or miss, system, I just don't see any improvement on that side of the ball. On offense it will be very hard to replace at top five NFL pick in Stanley, a round-three pick and senior leader in Martin, and now Elmer... Overall, I'm reminded of the year after our undefeated run before we lost Golson.

I love our young talent at the skill positions and the young OL players coming up and there is real potential on D but we are young and inexperienced this year. This year will be a real test for coach Kelly and his staff.

Of course I always quietly hope for an ND miracle and light a candle.

Your skepticism is warranted...however let me say this. The year after our 12' season we had nothing. Everything was wrong. The QB situation with golson leaving, our defense was so inexperienced..we had no weapons anywhere nor a qb to win a game on his own.

Fast forward to now...the difference being we have tons of weapons on offense. The o line retool doesn't scare me as much as our passing plays are quick throws. Moreover we have tremendous talent every position on offense. Backs, ends, receivers...could all be starting for other top 5 teams.

The defense yet again is where the worries lie.
We lost all world Jaylon, very good Day, from a defense even with those players was mediocre at best.

Please note that in present day college football days are long gone of a stonewalling defense. No huddle, spread...have all taken advantage of things to score points.

The key is being able to make some plays at critical times. That is about all you can hope for today.
Bama got shredded by Clemson and had it not been for that momentum changing surprise onside kick...Bama couldn't stop Clemson.

So I hope people recognize that defense today can only be so good...but no matter how low the ceiling we are still quite far from that.

 

[stu4don]

Good thoughts. Look I live and die with ND football. I really admire and grow to like these kids -- seems like we get to know them now when they are juniors in HS and then watch them develop as players and people at ND. And, I can't help it but I go into every season not hoping for ten wins, but for a national championship. (I was at ND in '78 and was at the Cotton bowl and was also in Ariz for the last natty, so I have the ND legacy disease.) But when I see the kind of talent teams like OSU or Bama or Fla St or now, Clemson are stockpiling it is getting harder to figure how we compete -- it is a long season and we just don't have that kind of depth. Yet we all know how important QB play can be in college football -- I'm thinking Auburn with Cam in 2010, for example -- and we will have two really good QBs. So hope springs eternal! Say what you want about Kelly not winning the big one, but he has had us close (2012) and, unlike under Charile, TW and Davie, I no longer really afraid of anyone (I hated those blowouts). I thought OSU might have been the best team in the country this year and we gave them a hell of a game with depleted defense. Thanks guys.

 

[Duo]

Why not just tell it like it really is............a rebuilding year.

All the great teams have them..........no exceptions. Alabama, Ohio State, Florida State, you name it. Usually happens a year or two or maybe even three after winning a NC.

But, the great teams re-load and come back fully expecting to make the playoffs and to win the natty. That's just how it goes in CFB.

 

[perseverare]

^ formed your opinion, years ago?, and your sticking with it unaffected by experience, reality, result?
Nope, your not gonna be one of those guys saying the 'same ole things' ?

 

[mirer03]

Goals for the season have to be
1. Find a defensive identity and eliminate the big play. BVG is in year 3 and that should payoff with players being part of his system moving up. I do not buy into the too complicated for the players defense as much as lack of familiarity with the defense. I also look for improvements in the secondary and dline with two second year coaches. 80% of the time ND plays great defense and then that other 20% is giving up big chunk plays and missed assignments. The second year secondary coach has to address the missed assignments and wrong reads. I actually believe the loss of Schmidt will help this process as the pressure will be on the players to know where to be more then depending on one guy getting them in the spot. In some cases I think his knowledge of the system was a crutch last year for other players.
2. Offensive line has to gel. It can take time, but ND has a lot of depth on the O-line. Getting it right in the spring could be the difference between an 8 win and a 10 win season. I do not think the loss of Elmer and Martin are major and expect equal or better individual play from their replacements..LT will be attacked a lot this year and could be trial by fire with stanley gone. If the line gels under HH early this could be a strength for years to come.
3. This is a season where leaders on both sides of the ball will be identified and come forward. Prosise and Brown had a huge impact on the mental makeup of the offense, and Jaylon and Schmidt on defense. Replacing that on and off the field leadership will be a big deal and is a huge opportunity for the juniors.

 

[Telx1]

I fully expect the offense to be very good and very productive. Fewer long strike TD's with Fuller gone, but a better passing game overall, with better distribution among multiple receivers. Hunter and Boykins and Jones and St Brown et al... will be very productive. We have an outstanding compliment of running backs, and as stated, excellent talent and depth at QB. The question mark is the OL, but this has been a recruiting strength under Harry, and the Only question in my mind is how many games in before they are consistently good and well coordinated in their play as a unit.

Defense under BVG has been terrible, but hard to judge with all the injuries. I don't expect a drop off in our defensive line play, but do expect improved pressure from the DE positions. Trumbetti needs to have a breakout season, and hoping Bonner steps up and makes a difference this year. The interesting side story will be whether the incoming freshmen contribute, and they look poised to do so. Actually think we will be much improved with DB play. Lots of young talent to compliment Luke, and contrary to most, expect these to be positions of strength this year. The area with too many question marks for comfort is our linebackers. Lots of talent on paper, but no evidence they can play BVG's scheme. But as Ara noted, constant turnover is the nature of college football, and part of the annual excitement and optimism.

Stu, see no reason for lowered expectations. Went into this past season thinking ten wins would be a very good season, and feel the same about the upcoming season.

 

[cgvr]

Goals for the season have to be
1. Find a defensive identity and eliminate the big play. BVG is in year 3 and that should payoff with players being part of his system moving up. I do not buy into the too complicated for the players defense as much as lack of familiarity with the defense. I also look for improvements in the secondary and dline with two second year coaches. 80% of the time ND plays great defense and then that other 20% is giving up big chunk plays and missed assignments. The second year secondary coach has to address the missed assignments and wrong reads. I actually believe the loss of Schmidt will help this process as the pressure will be on the players to know where to be more then depending on one guy getting them in the spot. In some cases I think his knowledge of the system was a crutch last year for other players.
2. Offensive line has to gel. It can take time, but ND has a lot of depth on the O-line. Getting it right in the spring could be the difference between an 8 win and a 10 win season. I do not think the loss of Elmer and Martin are major and expect equal or better individual play from their replacements..LT will be attacked a lot this year and could be trial by fire with stanley gone. If the line gels under HH early this could be a strength for years to come.
3. This is a season where leaders on both sides of the ball will be identified and come forward. Procise and Brown had a huge impact on the mental makeup of the offense, and Jaylon and Schmidt on defense. Replacing that on and off the field leadership will be a big deal and is a huge opportunity for the juniors.

Procise doesn't play for ND....

 

[cgvr]

I fully expect the offense to be very good and very productive. Fewer long strike TD's with Fuller gone, but a better passing game overall, with better distribution among multiple receivers. Hunter and Boykins and Jones and St Brown et al... will be very productive. We have an outstanding compliment of running backs, and as stated, excellent talent and depth at QB. The question mark is the OL, but this has been a recruiting strength under Harry, and the Only question in my mind is how many games in before they are consistently good and well coordinated in their play as a unit.

Defense under BVG has been terrible, but hard to judge with all the injuries. I don't expect a drop off in our defensive line play, but do expect improved pressure from the DE positions. Trumbetti needs to have a breakout season, and hoping Bonner steps up and makes a difference this year. The interesting side story will be whether the incoming freshmen contribute, and they look poised to do so. Actually think we will be much improved with DB play. Lots of young talent to compliment Luke, and contrary to most, expect these to be positions of strength this year. The area with too many question marks for comfort is our linebackers. Lots of talent on paper, but no evidence they can play BVG's scheme. But as Ara noted, constant turnover is the nature of college football, and part of the annual excitement and optimism.

Stu, see no reason for lowered expectations. Went into this past season thinking ten wins would be a very good season, and feel the same about the upcoming season.

Which player do you think will replace Luatua in the backfield?

PS I enjoyed watching 'bama line up two D linemen in the backfield to blow holes...

 

[Nocalirish]

Look at the schedule. Mich St and Stan are the only roadblocks and they both will have new qb's. Offense will put up enough to beat everyone else. Defense cant get much worse and hopefully Van realizes he is coaching for his job and simplifies his system.

 

[Telx1]

CGVR...good question. Would personally like to see someone like Randolph, but would be interesting to see if Rhuland is able to move quick enough to play this role. Of course, out three tight ends..Jones and Smythe and Weisher should all be stronger and better blockers, and expect they'll be part of the answer.

 

[cgvr]

CGVR...good question. Would personally like to see someone like Randolph, but would be interesting to see if Rhuland is able to move quick enough to play this role. Of course, out three tight ends..Jones and Smythe and Weisher should all be stronger and better blockers, and expect they'll be part of the answer.

I'm hoping to see a multidimensional jumbo package installed. As you accurately noted, we have some guns.

Rhuland could be a "punisher". I don't know how quick he is....

PS I wish we had thrown some screens...short stuff to Luatua just to keep defenses honest.

 

[MagicInTheName]

LOL at predicting results for the 2017 season. Good lord.

 

[FLballcoach1]

The unknown variables to any team is health and chemistry. If this ND team can get great leadership from its captains and ND can catch a break or two in the health department. This team has enough talent to achieve great things.

Only Brian Kelly & Staff and the kids in the locker room will be able to tell you about the chemistry and leadership.

All this message board verbal mumbo jumbo, Athlon pre season rankings and Scout and Rivals star stuff means virtually nothing.

When a team breaks camp in the fall and the first time a team faces some adversity during the season

Brian Kelly will quickly figure out what he has long before anyone on here would get clue #1.

 

[FLballcoach1]

The purpose of a Jumbo package is because you are trying to excel in one dimension. GL/Short Yardage and 4 minute.

There's no such thing as,a,"multi dimension" Jumbo package. If you line up 2 DT in the backfield everyone with an IQ north of 60 knows what you're doing. That's the difference between knowing REAL football and some imaginary PS2 playing with your joystick football. SMH

 

[cgvr]

The purpose of a Jumbo package is because you are trying to excel in one dimension. GL/Short Yardage and 4 minute.

There's no such thing as,a,"multi dimension" Jumbo package. If you line up 2 DT in the backfield everyone with an IQ north of 60 knows what you're doing. That's the difference between knowing REAL football and some imaginary PS2 playing with your joystick football. SMH

Yeah, Vanderdoes didn't catch a pass coming out of the backfield when he lined up back there..... There are scores of other multidimensional "jumbo packages". He also has rushed for TD's. That's a simple example of multidimensional.

On the other hand, Luatua never caught a pass or carried the ball. Sadly, he never will for ND. The only time he touched the ball was on a kickoff return. That makes his blocking role a "single dimensional" event as he poses no other threat. Thanks for the ongoing laughs.....

PS. I have also seen jumbo packages with multiple d linemen, o linemen, tight ends, linebackers in the backfield..... and have seen passes thrown to someone else wide..... Did you happen to catch the "wildcat jumbo" with JJ Watt as qb? Again, you are very very funny.

 

[echowaker]

Yeah, Vanderdoes didn't catch a pass coming out of the backfield when he lined up back there..... There are scores of other multidimensional "jumbo packages". He also has rushed for TD's. That's a simple example of multidimensional.

On the other hand, Luatua never caught a pass or carried the ball. Sadly, he never will for ND. The only time he touched the ball was on a kickoff return. That makes his blocking role a "single dimensional" event as he poses no other threat. Thanks for the ongoing laughs.....

PS. I have also seen jumbo packages with multiple d linemen, o linemen, tight ends, linebackers in the backfield..... and have seen passes thrown to someone else wide..... Did you happen to catch the "wildcat jumbo" with JJ Watt as qb? Again, you are very very funny.

way to pick the low hanging fruit. players with the ability of a jj watt are everywhere right ? pathetic.

 

[echowaker]

Yeah, Vanderdoes didn't catch a pass coming out of the backfield when he lined up back there..... There are scores of other multidimensional "jumbo packages". He also has rushed for TD's. That's a simple example of multidimensional.

On the other hand, Luatua never caught a pass or carried the ball. Sadly, he never will for ND. The only time he touched the ball was on a kickoff return. That makes his blocking role a "single dimensional" event as he poses no other threat. Thanks for the ongoing laughs.....

PS. I have also seen jumbo packages with multiple d linemen, o linemen, tight ends, linebackers in the backfield..... and have seen passes thrown to someone else wide..... Did you happen to catch the "wildcat jumbo" with JJ Watt as qb? Again, you are very very funny.

look, your issues are well documented here and it's very sad. that said, you really should refrain from discussions that involve the operations of a major college football program both administrative and technical. it only makes your issues worse it seems. help is out there. don't be afraid to take that first step.

 

[TheDecker]

well, 9 looks like a good guess (as of now; pre season training might tell us more:
2 losses on team ( meet a better team and mistakes)
1 loss on staff decisions (come on it happens most every year, so count it in)

who do fans fear most on the schedule?

2017 is the schedule to worry about: 6-6 or 7-5 is realistic - on what we see now)
if ND goes 8-4 in '16 followed by a .500 year in '17 it could get testy among fans.
We would certainly hear a chorus of 'ifs" ! to excuse the matters!
Play like a Champion might be replaced by "If Only"
Yep, '17 is the key to the Kelly legacy; which way will the needle be pointing?

9-10 wins seems to be the most likely guess

But the 2017 team could lose little to nothing.....I see literally the opposite in 2017 (10-12 regular season wins)

I doubt a 10 wins season followed by an 11-12 win season would have anyone too testy

 

[TheDecker]

Last year, despite game inexperience at QB, I was hoping for a ten-win, major bowl season. Quietly, I had higher hopes (final four) given our experienced defense and superior offensive line. We nearly got there, even with all of those injuries.

This year, despite the best QB situation of the BK era, I'm thinking 8-9 wins tops. Why? I am very nervous about a defense that loses its best d-lineman in Day, best linebacker in Smith, best cover guy in Russell and best backside hitter in Shumate. Add to that losing their defensive QB, Schimdt, in BVG's overly complicated, hit or miss, system, I just don't see any improvement on that side of the ball. On offense it will be very hard to replace at top five NFL pick in Stanley, a round-three pick and senior leader in Martin, and now Elmer... Overall, I'm reminded of the year after our undefeated run before we lost Golson.

I love our young talent at the skill positions and the young OL players coming up and there is real potential on D but we are young and inexperienced this year. This year will be a real test for coach Kelly and his staff.

Of course I always quietly hope for an ND miracle and light a candle.

Compare the team to the opponent, game by game
(what actually matters)

When you do that, I see anywhere from 8-11 wins being likely

Personally, I'd have the over/under at 9.5 wins

 

[FLballcoach1]

way to pick the low hanging fruit. players with the ability of a jj watt are everywhere right ? pathetic.

Yes, I concur. Pathetic. And can I add really dumb too?

 

[FLballcoach1]

look, your issues are well documented here and it's very sad. that said, you really should refrain from discussions that involve the operations of a major college football program both administrative and technical. it only makes your issues worse it seems. help is out there. don't be afraid to take that first step.

Gotta love how the resident board bottom feeder keeps coming back to get his teeth kicked down his throat. What a miserable self loathing chode.

 

[cgvr]

Gotta love how the resident board bottom feeder keeps coming back to get his teeth kicked down his throat. What a miserable self loathing chode.

Don't you have some laundry to do?

 

[Pennick4]

Yeah, Vanderdoes didn't catch a pass coming out of the backfield when he lined up back there..... There are scores of other multidimensional "jumbo packages". He also has rushed for TD's. That's a simple example of multidimensional.

On the other hand, Luatua never caught a pass or carried the ball. Sadly, he never will for ND. The only time he touched the ball was on a kickoff return. That makes his blocking role a "single dimensional" event as he poses no other threat. Thanks for the ongoing laughs.....

PS. I have also seen jumbo packages with multiple d linemen, o linemen, tight ends, linebackers in the backfield..... and have seen passes thrown to someone else wide..... Did you happen to catch the "wildcat jumbo" with JJ Watt as qb? Again, you are very very funny.

Hey Einstein,

How did that play work out? Watt got stuffed behind the line of scrimmage. That had to be the dumbest call in football in 2015. I am a big Bill O'brien fan but he crapped the bed in this game.
How will we ever replace Latua? funny stuff from you.

 

[kellys heroes 35]

well, 9 looks like a good guess (as of now; pre season training might tell us more:
2 losses on team ( meet a better team and mistakes)
1 loss on staff decisions (come on it happens most every year, so count it in)

who do fans fear most on the schedule?

2017 is the schedule to worry about: 6-6 or 7-5 is realistic - on what we see now)
if ND goes 8-4 in '16 followed by a .500 year in '17 it could get testy among fans.
We would certainly hear a chorus of 'ifs" ! to excuse the matters!
Play like a Champion might be replaced by "If Only"
Yep, '17 is the key to the Kelly legacy; which way will the needle be pointing?

Your are a despicable worthless d bag -- simple really

 

[McIlhennyIrish]

Hey Einstein,

How did that play work out? Watt got stuffed behind the line of scrimmage. That had to be the dumbest call in football in 2015. I am a big Bill O'brien fan but he crapped the bed in this game.
How will we ever replace Latua? funny stuff from you.

Perry & the Bears

 

[McIlhennyIrish]

Your are a despicable worthless d bag -- simple really

Man, you are a joke. You know nothing about football. Your sole purpose is to attack one poster. The fact of the matter is Kelly has cost the team wins with bad decision making. But he also has won games based on his coaching ability. A 9 win season is reasonable and expected in todays environment. If you feel that 12-0 is the expectation, then you have to admit Kelly needs to go. Which one is it?

 

[TheDecker]

Man, you are a joke. You know nothing about football. Your sole purpose is to attack one poster. The fact of the matter is Kelly has cost the team wins with bad decision making. But he also has won games based on his coaching ability. A 9 win season is reasonable and expected in todays environment. If you feel that 12-0 is the expectation, then you have to admit Kelly needs to go. Which one is it?

Kelly has won the team far, far more games than he's lost

My biggest objection with Kelly has been 2 things

• Poor "end of game" coaching decisions
• Tendency to abandon the run game too easily

However, Kelly has vastly improve the talent, culture, scheme and quality of coaching (HC and assistants) and a large variety of other areas at ND

We've been very luck to have Kelly

 

[McIlhennyIrish]

Kelly has won the team far, far more games than he's lost

My biggest objection with Kelly has been 2 things

• Poor "end of game" coaching decisions
• Tendency to abandon the run game too easily

However, Kelly has vastly improve the talent, culture, scheme and quality of coaching (HC and assistants) and a large variety of other areas at ND

We've been very luck to have Kelly

I agree. He has got us this far. Now, how do we get to the next level?

 

[TheDecker]

I agree. He has got us this far. Now, how do we get to the next level?

Allow Kelly to continue to build on the base he has established

I really don't see how that could be any more obvious

 

[McIlhennyIrish]

Allow Kelly to continue to build on the base he has established

I really don't see how that could be any more obvious

I don't exactly see that trending upward. He has had is best teams ever these last few years and has under performed. The beat down by OSU confirms that.

 

[Pennick4]

I don't exactly see that trending upward. He has had is best teams ever these last few years and has under performed. The beat down by OSU confirms that.

If you haven't noticed the talent level increasing on a yearly basis, you are as dumb as CVGR.

 

[TheDecker]

I don't exactly see that trending upward. He has had is best teams ever these last few years and has under performed. The beat down by OSU confirms that.

The fact that the most recent team was his best team ever contradicts what you're saying.

And Ohio State was the most physically talented team in CFB this year, maybe the most talented in the last decade.

It wasn't a great game, but it wasn't terrible. An injury riddled defense caved against a elite team...though the offense still performed respectably.

Beyond that, ND lost by a total of 4 points two Top5 teams.

The program is absolutely trending up
(I don't see how you'd debate that at all)