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Army - CFP

Its funny because stats like FPI and F+ are built to answer this question. How would teams stack up if they were all playing the same level of competition?

According to F+ Army is ranked #27 in the country and would be 9th out of 16 SEC teams.

If we use FPI, Army is ranked #47, and they would be more like 13th of 16 SEC teams.
To add...

its important to note that these advanced ranking systems are terrible at evaluating triple option teams that use ball control and use their offense to play keep away as a defense so Army could be much better or worse .. conservatively they probably fall somewhere in the middle of both of these systems.

Fighting Kelly’s of LSU

LSU still has the #6 class in the country to NDs #12 class. LSU still has 2 other 5-star commits in '25 to NDs zero 5-star commits. LSU still has a 30+ year tenured head coach in Brian Kelly with a long track record of producing above the baseline that his talent suggests that he should.

If I had to make a best guess at what program has a brighter future at this point, my money is still on LSU/Brian Kelly. If we're going to evaluate these two programs into the future, its important that we use a metric that adjusts for opponent quality though (like F+) because the schedules are vastly different in terms of the level of competition.
ND is still 9 and 1 while LSU is still 6 and 4

ND has Marcus Freeman as the head coach while LSU still has Brian Kelly

Advantage ND

Army - CFP

Its funny because stats like FPI and F+ are built to answer this question. How would teams stack up if they were all playing the same level of competition?

According to F+ Army is ranked #27 in the country and would be 9th out of 16 SEC teams.

If we use FPI, Army is ranked #47, and they would be more like 13th of 16 SEC teams.

and this is like the best Army team this century.

Army - CFP

All this back and forth about Army beating anyone in the SEC reminds me of a t-shirt that I bought a while ago. The top front read "An Irishman walked out of a bar." Below that it read "Really, it could happen". The fact that it took Navy 20 something years to finally beat Notre Dame again means that anything could happen.
If Army played a typical SEC schedule, you tell me, what would their conference record be? 5-3? 4-4? 3-5? 2-6?

Army - CFP

All this back and forth about Army beating anyone in the SEC reminds me of a t-shirt that I bought a while ago. The top front read "An Irishman walked out of a bar." Below that it read "Really, it could happen". The fact that it took Navy 20 something years to finally beat Notre Dame again means that anything could happen.
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Fighting Kelly’s of LSU

How we feeling about this today Chase - ND trajectory looking much brighter than LSU or neaux? Yes or no is acceptable no reason to bloviate on such a simple question.
LSU still has the #6 class in the country to NDs #12 class. LSU still has 2 other 5-star commits in '25 to NDs zero 5-star commits. LSU still has a 30+ year tenured head coach in Brian Kelly with a long track record of producing above the baseline that his talent suggests that he should.

If I had to make a best guess at what program has a brighter future at this point, my money is still on LSU/Brian Kelly. If we're going to evaluate these two programs into the future, its important that we use a metric that adjusts for opponent quality though (like F+) because the schedules are vastly different in terms of the level of competition.

Fighting Kelly’s of LSU

It screams Freeman is over-achieving while Kelly is underachieving. Full-stop.

ND trajectory looks much brighter than that of LSU.

I disagree with this. The recruiting/incoming talent at LSU in 2025 is in another tier entirely and this has to be taken into consideration.

ND and LSU have had similar productivity when you adjust for opponent quality and luck (F+) over the last several years and LSU has a better incoming class in 2025 (as presently constructed).

I think LSU/BK has more upside going forward based on the better talent they have incoming and how well you attract talent is part of the HCs job.

How we feeling about this today Chase - ND trajectory looking much brighter than LSU or neaux? Yes or no is acceptable no reason to bloviate on such a simple question.

Underwood to Michigan

Wealthy alums have been supporting their favorite school's endeavors going back to the start of time. Isn't this essentially what endowments are? Some wealthy donor wants to see his school do well so is willing to burn millions of dollars of his own money so that the school prospers? I don't see the problem. It sounds like a win win to me. I don't understand why once the players start getting a well deserved piece of the pie, everybody wants to start clutching their pearls.

Also, a lot of prospects flameout (don't ever produce for the schools they join) but a lot of them do produce as well.

Is football talent less predictable than baseball talent that has to graduate like 4 levels of pro baseball before ever taking a major league at bat? I doubt it. The best HS baseball talent in the june draft get paid 7-8 figures and most of those guys don't ever make it to the major leagues. The average major league baseball team isn't making much more money than a college football blue blood in 2024.

Coaching staffs are being paid $20M at major P4 schools .. and now those same schools have added another $20-$30M in NIL to retain the players on their roster as well. This is the cost of doing business.

Football is dangerous. CTE is a real thing. Players are risking long term injury to make schools extremely wealthy at a chance to earn millions of dollars in the NFL someday with a very small window to earn. Its good that they are starting to get paid for the value that they produce (even if that value is purely potential value) much sooner.
I don’t disagree with anything you said here. ND players are paid well in NIL. The difference currently is paying the recruit before they produce on the field. If ND wants to join that game, im all for it, I mean, it’s not my money. All I was saying is that game is a bit easier when billionaire donors like Ellison & Knight exist for certain teams, because if their players don’t produce, it’s pennies on the dollar compared to regular millionaire donors.

What we don’t know is how locker rooms respond yet to a kid showing up day 1 with a 10M contract without earning his stripes. Do the other players care? Does it lead to envy and less team synergy? I’m honestly not sure but wouldn’t be surprised.
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Underwood to Michigan

The frustration is mutual. I do understand your viewpoint. That players have value at all different levels, and there are players which values that far exceed a $12M cap. True.

Where we differ is college football is very different than any other sport. It is a 3-4 year max contract, different than any sport you’ve mentioned. Also, my hesitation on paying someone like underwood now, is not that players aren’t worth the money, it’s if these players can necessarily be identified as early as Underwood was. Possibly the most valuable college player in the last 10-12 years was Johnny Manziel, he’s someone who would never have been valued high until after recruiting.

To your last point, when someone like Ellison comes in, true market value no longer matters. They can just overspend with no issue. $10M to someone with $230B is not the same as $10M to any institution.

I don’t think we need to keep arguing our points, simply two different views on when players values are known.
Wealthy alums have been supporting their favorite school's endeavors going back to the start of time. Isn't this essentially what endowments are? Some wealthy donor wants to see his school do well so is willing to burn millions of dollars of his own money so that the school prospers? I don't see the problem. It sounds like a win win to me. I don't understand why once the players start getting a well deserved piece of the pie, everybody wants to start clutching their pearls.

Also, a lot of prospects flameout (don't ever produce for the schools they join) but a lot of them do produce as well.

Is football talent less predictable than baseball talent that has to graduate like 4 levels of pro baseball before ever taking a major league at bat? I doubt it. The best HS baseball talent in the june draft get paid 7-8 figures and most of those guys don't ever make it to the major leagues. The average major league baseball team isn't making much more money than a college football blue blood in 2024.

Coaching staffs are being paid $20M at major P4 schools .. and now those same schools have added another $20-$30M in NIL to retain the players on their roster as well. This is the cost of doing business.

Football is dangerous. CTE is a real thing. Players are risking long term injury to make schools extremely wealthy at a chance to earn millions of dollars in the NFL someday with a very small window to earn. Its good that they are starting to get paid for the value that they produce (even if that value is purely potential value) much sooner.
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