I know that some people think my post is purely sarcastic, but it's not. Obviously, there are elements of sarcasm tied into it for sake of fun, but let's explore some of the realities of this matchup more deeply.
1. ND has the longest current win streak in the FBS, and hasn't lost a game at home since the 2nd game of the 2017 season, when they lost by 1 point to Georgia and were driving late with a chance to win that game. I think they've won 22 or 23 straight games at home. They have every right to be confident in South Bend.
2. Uiagalelei looked great in his first start last week, but he's not Trevor Lawrence (at least not yet). Although he can run, he doesn't kill you with his legs like Lawrence does. Furthermore, Clark Lea has one of the best defenses in the country. You have to think that with 3 weeks to prepare (which Kelly has admitted has been partially the case) that he's going to have some things prepared for the young signal caller... They scored 34 points against Boston College, and needed every minute of the game to get there. The kid is REALLY GOOD, I'm not taking anything away from him, but you have to think that ND is AT LEAST a touchdown better than Boston College is defensively. Add to it the fact that it's a road game for the kid, instead of a home game. You have to at least be confident enough in the fact that Lea can hold that offense to 28'ish points (as long as the offense isn't turning the ball over and putting them in bad spots)... If you told me that ND was going to hold Clemson under 30 points (which I think they might if all goes well), I think ND has a live chance. I genuinely believe that Trevor Lawrence is worth at least 14 points to that offense on the field. That's no disrespect to Uiagalelei, Lawrence is just far more advanced at this point. As the future #1 pick should be... ND's defense held a better offense to 30 points in the 2018 bowl game, despite the ND offense doing absolutely nothing for 4 quarters. If the offense can contribute this week, at home in South Bend, the Irish should have no excuse not to hang.
3. If this isn't the year you can run the ball on a top team, when is? Clemson is starting a pair of 19 year old defensive linemen. I get that they were both top 15 players in last year's class, but they're friggen 19 and nowhere near the monsters they'll be two years from now. ND has 130+ starts on their offensive line. That's the most in America. All 5 of them are upper classmen, and at least 4 of them (probably all 5) will be NFL draft picks over the next two years. Furthermore, Clemson's best interior lineman, Tyler Davis, has been out battling an MCL sprain. Even if he does play this week, he's going to be nowhere near 100%. Xavier Thomas will also miss the first half of the game after a targetting penalty last week, their leading tackler / MIKE linebacker / arguably their best defensive player James Skalski has already been ruled out this week and their starting WILL linebacker, Jones, missed the BC game due to injury as well... When you have 130+ OL starts, tons of continuity, above average running backs and you're facing a young / depleted front, if you can't run the ball in that situation, when are you going to? If your 22 and 23 year old, fully developed, former 4 and 5 star OL, who are bound for the NFL, can't get a push and open some run lanes this week, it's time to stop trying to be a rushing team against these types of opponents.
4. BK is finally saying the right things and attacking this game with the urgency that the other elite coaches do. He's admitted that they've been looking ahead to this game for multiple weeks and actively preparing for it. ND is relatively healthy among their key players, which is a positive. Furthermore, Kelly sounded like a Saban, Meyer or Swinney in his post game press conference last night, when he basically congratulated the team for winning quickly, then spent 5 minutes obviously annoyed talking about how much better, sharper and more dominant they need to be. That's what a winner sounds like. Never, ever, ever pleased with the result. Always focused on how to improve. I love that attitude and I hope the team plays with it this week.
5. Without Trevor Lawrence, this is, objectively, the least complete Clemson team since before DeShaun Watson took over at quarterback. Injuries have made that worse. Tee Higgins, Justyn Ross and Hunter Renfrow aren't there anymore. YES they still have skilled talent, of course, but this team's offense was largely being willed by Lawrence and Etienne. Maybe I'll eat my words next Sunday, but I think you can take Rodgers out of the game by putting all world "blanket" Kyle Hamilton, over top of him. You have to believe that over 4 quarters the rest of your secondary can compete with Cornell Patterson, Joe Ngata and Frank Ladson. Similarly, they've given up yards through the air. Booth and Kendrick are talented, but lesser teams than Notre Dame have had success against them. Their safeties appear on film to be vulnerable. Their pass rush isn't as elite as it has been, without blitzing (which Venables is great at scheming) and it's my belief that ND's tight ends have a genuine advantage against their linebackers, if Ian Book can find a way, one time, to trust himself in the middle of the field.
So I ask again... If not this week, then when?
