Only 1 % of Tom Brady’s passes are completed for 40 yards or more.
Only 9% of Tom Brady’s passes are completed for 20 yards or more.
Those are highly informative stats!
What do they tell you ?
Ian Book's Senior Season
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Only 1 % of Tom Brady’s passes are completed for 40 yards or more.
Only 9% of Tom Brady’s passes are completed for 20 yards or more.
Those are highly informative stats!
What do they tell you ?
3 notable comments from Tom Rees' press conference today... paraphrased, but as close to his exact words as I could get without the transcript.
It gives you a real idea of what the Coaching Staff feels Ian needs to work on.
On the topic of Ian's continued development...
"We need to push the ball more downfield and be more consistent there. And then the next step is for him to get through progressions without trying to get out of the pocket all of the time. You know, you don't want to take that part of the game away from him, but if you can get through it mentally quicker, some good things can happen too. He's improved in those areas and he understands what it means to be at Notre Dame, be a leader and have those opportunities".
Specifically on Ian's deep ball...
"Ian always wants to make the perfect throw. Deep balls don't always have to be perfect. You can let your guy make a play on it or run under it. I think understanding when to drive it, when to throw it with some air and when to hit guys coming out of breaks, so it doesn't have to be a 65 yard throw every time... He's taken upon himself to work on it and to get better."
On whether or Ian got frustrated with the deep ball last year...
"Ian's a calm individual and he's always on to the next play, but he knew it was probably something he needed to work on. Coach Kelly keeps talking about sharpening the axe, and he does a really good job of understand the importance of it, and that we keep working on it every day."
On coach long talking about needing to stretch the field and create big plays and how that relates to the deep ball and expanding the offense...
"You know, there was some missed opportunities and plays we didn't capitalize on. I mean you watch the Virginia Tech game, you can find about 6 or 7 of them. I think that it was a couple yards here, a couple yards there, a little rushed here, a little rushed there..."
For those of us that aren't throwing Ian under the bus, but are rationally watching the tape and seeing what Pro Football Focus sees on film, and see what his position coach sees, I think those comments show that the rational among us are not blind haters.
Ian Book has developed into a very reliable, quality college quarterback in his first year as a starter. Now he needs to take another jump as a senior, something I think he's capable of doing. He needs to be able to stretch the field through the air. He needs to stand in the pocket (even if he takes a hit) so he can see guys open downfield, he needs to make the easy throws for big plays when they are available and he needs to cut down on his interceptions. Last year he tossed 7 INTs in 9 starts and was on a 13 game pace to throw 10-11 INTs with TD totals in the low 30s.
Comparatively...
Trevor Lawrence 30 TDs/ 4 INTs
Jake Fromm 30 TDs / 6 INTs
Tua Tagavailoa 43 TDs / 6 INTs
Dwayne Haskins 50 TDs / 8 INTs
Kyler Murray 42 TDs / 7 INTs
Those are the types of ratios I'd like to see him get to.
It gives you a real idea of what the Coaching Staff feels Ian needs to work on.
On the topic of Ian's continued development...
"We need to push the ball more downfield and be more consistent there. And then the next step is for him to get through progressions without trying to get out of the pocket all of the time. You know, you don't want to take that part of the game away from him, but if you can get through it mentally quicker, some good things can happen too. He's improved in those areas and he understands what it means to be at Notre Dame, be a leader and have those opportunities".
Specifically on Ian's deep ball...
"Ian always wants to make the perfect throw. Deep balls don't always have to be perfect. You can let your guy make a play on it or run under it. I think understanding when to drive it, when to throw it with some air and when to hit guys coming out of breaks, so it doesn't have to be a 65 yard throw every time... He's taken upon himself to work on it and to get better."
On whether or Ian got frustrated with the deep ball last year...
"Ian's a calm individual and he's always on to the next play, but he knew it was probably something he needed to work on. Coach Kelly keeps talking about sharpening the axe, and he does a really good job of understand the importance of it, and that we keep working on it every day."
On coach long talking about needing to stretch the field and create big plays and how that relates to the deep ball and expanding the offense...
"You know, there was some missed opportunities and plays we didn't capitalize on. I mean you watch the Virginia Tech game, you can find about 6 or 7 of them. I think that it was a couple yards here, a couple yards there, a little rushed here, a little rushed there..."
For those of us that aren't throwing Ian under the bus, but are rationally watching the tape and seeing what Pro Football Focus sees on film, and see what his position coach sees, I think those comments show that the rational among us are not blind haters.
Ian Book has developed into a very reliable, quality college quarterback in his first year as a starter. Now he needs to take another jump as a senior, something I think he's capable of doing. He needs to be able to stretch the field through the air. He needs to stand in the pocket (even if he takes a hit) so he can see guys open downfield, he needs to make the easy throws for big plays when they are available and he needs to cut down on his interceptions. Last year he tossed 7 INTs in 9 starts and was on a 13 game pace to throw 10-11 INTs with TD totals in the low 30s.
Comparatively...
Trevor Lawrence 30 TDs/ 4 INTs
Jake Fromm 30 TDs / 6 INTs
Tua Tagavailoa 43 TDs / 6 INTs
Dwayne Haskins 50 TDs / 8 INTs
Kyler Murray 42 TDs / 7 INTs
Those are the types of ratios I'd like to see him get to.
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excellent post
I can't stream YouTube on my 2G connection right now thanks for posting Rees' comments
I want to reiterate that I think this is an excellent analysis and excellent post I do have some minor nitpicks though:
When it comes to the TD to int ratio I'm not really concernedt all of that goes into the QB rating formula and the adjusted yards per attempt formula already( among a number of other factors.)
before the Clemson game and especially before the injury down the stretch books QB rating and adjusted yards per attempt was amongst Kyler Murray and Tuas level. EG one of the best in the game.
I understand the argument that Ian book didn't really play any really good defenses last year other than the Clemson game and none of the stats that I'm referencing make any adjustment for strength of opponent. But on the other hand Ian book didn't get to dice up some of their weakest opponents on the schedule like Florida State Vanderbilt and Ball State
one of the things that I also wanted to mention those quarterbacks that you listed all have a significantly greater set of weapons at wide receiver (even acknowledging miles boykins underrated performance last season) and running back. Those types of playmakers will help inflate your TD to int ratio very quickly where metrics like QB rating and adjusted yards per attempt focus more on the quarterbacks performance specifically
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Here is the link to the leaderboards of the stats that I referenced above.
A/YA and
PER "rate"
Book finished 21st and 17th respectively in both of those stats but was way up in the top five before the injury and then was in the top 10 before the clunker vs Clemson.
This guy's basically had a huge wide range of performance from Superstar level to "good but not great". He's kind of hard to pin down especially when you include the partial season and the easy schedule and then the broken ribs
https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2018-passing.html
A/YA and
PER "rate"
Book finished 21st and 17th respectively in both of those stats but was way up in the top five before the injury and then was in the top 10 before the clunker vs Clemson.
This guy's basically had a huge wide range of performance from Superstar level to "good but not great". He's kind of hard to pin down especially when you include the partial season and the easy schedule and then the broken ribs
https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2018-passing.html
I’ll add that stats don’t always tell the story. For example, a couple of his INTs were flukes (the one against ‘cuse when the lineman steps on his foot near the goal line on 4th down and he is falling backwards & had to let it go and the one against Pitt when he’s hit in the pocket on his release). Those two aren’t bad reads or bad decisions w/ throws into coverage. He had a bad read against navy when he forces the slant to finke when claypool is open at the first down marker. The one when he rolls to his left against usc was another bad decision, same when he rolls left against Pitt. Bottom line, he only had a few bad picks in 314 attempts. I’ll take those numbers all day long, especially when he wasn’t even the starter until game 4.
Better Pocket presence and footwork he doesn't get touched and doesn't throw the two picks. He had great pockets both times and just needed to take one step. Especially the pitt throw, he had a pocket the size of a tractor trailer a step to his left, but he didn't have good footwork, and his arm got hit as he threw it.
Not all picks are bad decisions, some are bad footwork, bad mechanics, bad plays by the WR, communication. The two you mention above, are 100% on Ian, and bad picks on his part.
His TD / INT ratio wasn't bad. It just wasn't among the nation's leaders, which I hope it is this year, for Notre Dame's sake. You're right, flukes happen. Some INTs are out of your control... The same is true for all quarterbacks so it is likely that it applies to the other guys whose numbers I posted as well. I bet each of them had a fluke, or two, which makes their numbers even more impressive.
IIO,
Since the coaching staff indicated that they want to push the ball downfield, one has to ask:
How many 20+ and 40+ passing plays did the coaching staff call.
Don’t overlook the fact that he ranked 5th in the nation in completion percentage !
Since the coaching staff indicated that they want to push the ball downfield, one has to ask:
How many 20+ and 40+ passing plays did the coaching staff call.
Don’t overlook the fact that he ranked 5th in the nation in completion percentage !
Correction, he ranked 15th, not 17th in YPA
He ranked 5th in completion percentage.
Take a look at who the 4 QB’s were who had higher completion percentages.
What team wouldn’t want to have a QB who ranked 5th in completion percentage and 15th in YPA ?
How unrealistic are your expectations ?
The concern is he only completed 58% of his passes the last 4 games, while not hitting on many explosive plays.
If book hits on 68% of his passes this year we will be really good. To do that, he's going to have to be improved downfield and in the pocket immensely. Teams aren't going to give him the simple short quick throws that he got early in the season until he proves he can beat them consistently downfield.
There were a lot of receivers open downfield last year, but Ian chose the shorter, safer route. Rees wasn't maki g that up when he said that there were 6 or 7 missed opportunities in the Va Tech game, for example, which is why he noted the importance of staying in the pocket and completing his progression... There were more than a couple times that Miles Boykin or Alize Mack were open in the deep middle of the field if Ian hangs in another full second. I think we're going to see him take a hit to make that throw more often this year.
I'm hopeful!
“The two you mention above, are 100% on Ian, and bad picks on his part.”
This is 100% BS. You’re saying he shouldn’t have had the lineman step on his foot, and he should’ve somehow knew the guy was gonna hit his arm upon release? See, this is the type of shit that you post that makes zero sense and why I take your analysis of book w/ a grain of salt. As for the va tech where he had more deep misses in that game than any other, two were clearly his fault (wheel to claypool and double move to finke), the other misses were a Boykin jump ball where he mistimed his jump and there was another when Boykin was tripped up by a dB as soon as the ball is released. Can’t place the blame on him on those but w/ all that said, you guys are ripping into a qb in his 3rd start in as hostile an environment that you’ll find, throwing to wrs that he was never able to get his timing down w/ since he was the backup for all of fall camp and the first three games of the season. Can’t imagine why he wasn’t perfect in his 3rd start? He only hit 25-35 in that game. You guys are basically asking him to be perfect as a first time starter in his 3rd start. Had he hit all those deep balls, he would’ve been 31 or 32 for 35, that’s not a ridiculous expectation? I guess that’s where we’re at. Better improve, Ian, or to the bench you go!
This is 100% BS. You’re saying he shouldn’t have had the lineman step on his foot, and he should’ve somehow knew the guy was gonna hit his arm upon release? See, this is the type of shit that you post that makes zero sense and why I take your analysis of book w/ a grain of salt. As for the va tech where he had more deep misses in that game than any other, two were clearly his fault (wheel to claypool and double move to finke), the other misses were a Boykin jump ball where he mistimed his jump and there was another when Boykin was tripped up by a dB as soon as the ball is released. Can’t place the blame on him on those but w/ all that said, you guys are ripping into a qb in his 3rd start in as hostile an environment that you’ll find, throwing to wrs that he was never able to get his timing down w/ since he was the backup for all of fall camp and the first three games of the season. Can’t imagine why he wasn’t perfect in his 3rd start? He only hit 25-35 in that game. You guys are basically asking him to be perfect as a first time starter in his 3rd start. Had he hit all those deep balls, he would’ve been 31 or 32 for 35, that’s not a ridiculous expectation? I guess that’s where we’re at. Better improve, Ian, or to the bench you go!
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When you throw deep, most deep passes are incomplete, stopping the clock, giving the defense a rest and wasting a down.
Hence, time of possession is often influenced by throwing deep too often.
If you lose 5 minutes in TOP per game, it’s the equivalent of your defense playing another two full games by the end of the season.
2.5 minutes equals a full game by season’s end.
Do you think there’s a reason why Tom Brady only completes 9 % of all of the passes he throws for 20 or more yards and 1 % of passes of 40 yards or more ? ? ?
Hence, time of possession is often influenced by throwing deep too often.
If you lose 5 minutes in TOP per game, it’s the equivalent of your defense playing another two full games by the end of the season.
2.5 minutes equals a full game by season’s end.
Do you think there’s a reason why Tom Brady only completes 9 % of all of the passes he throws for 20 or more yards and 1 % of passes of 40 yards or more ? ? ?
Do I think there is a reason that Tom Brady completes 9% of his deep passes?
Yes... A bunch of undrafted wide receivers that don't run fast enough to get over the top of the best DBs in the world, combined with NFL defenses that have 100+ hours per week to prepare for your offense, compared to college defenses that don't half a fraction of the talent, and have maybe 1/4 of the time to prepare.
College offenses have a huge advantage over college defenses. That advtange is much less at the pro level. The windows in which to pass in the NFL are near mind- bogglingly small.
In the Clemson game With the score 23-3 at the 10:15 mark in the 3rd quarter Book throws a long (43) TD pass to Boykin who is hit by the defensive back prior to the ball arriving and NO PI was called.
It was a flagrant missed call at a critical point in the game.
And who were ND’s top receivers who could run fast enough to get over the DB’s they faced last year ? ? ?
Who was the MVP in the last Super Bowl ?
100 hours per week ?
What planet are you on ?
The offense and defense in college football have an equal amount of time to prepare for each game.
That’s not the reason.
the same point that I made regarding the td-to-int ratio applies to the completion percentage as well.
That all goes into the formula for passer efficiency rating (PER) and adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A)
you get the complete picture by simply comparing quarterbacks by these all encompassing metrics.
How about Ben Rothliesberger with his receivers.
He led the league in passes of 40 or more yards.
But only 2 % of his passes went for 40 yards or more.
Only 16 for the entire season.
And like Brady only 9 % of his attempts went for 20 or more yards.
What does that tell you ?
He led the league in passes of 40 or more yards.
But only 2 % of his passes went for 40 yards or more.
Only 16 for the entire season.
And like Brady only 9 % of his attempts went for 20 or more yards.
What does that tell you ?
Was Book responsible for the 88 vs 211 rushing yard differential vs Clemson ?
The 6 penalties for 65 yards
Or the dropped passes.
How about the sacks by Clemson where the defender had a unchallenged path to Book ?
The 6 penalties for 65 yards
Or the dropped passes.
How about the sacks by Clemson where the defender had a unchallenged path to Book ?
He completes far more than 9% of his deep passes, don't trust his numbers.
It was a flagrant poor pass, but yes flag and better effort should have been given.
The way you do this calculation, book completed .3% of his passes over 40 yards. So Ben R against much tougher and smarter defenses completed about 7X the deep balls book did.
“His TD / INT ratio wasn't bad. It just wasn't among the nation's leaders”
So you think that a qb that you called a “backup” that didn’t start the first three games of the season should be amongst the nation’s leaders in td/int ratio? The fact that he was damn close is incredible but that seems like some lofty expectations for a backup, don’t you think? (Take away at least two that weren’t his fault and he’s right there w/ the nation’s leaders, btw). I still have to laugh at all the bitching some of you have done about book. So if he were to stay in the pocket longer and hit on all his deep balls, what would his completion % be? 90%? Just think about that for a bit, you guys are bitching about a qb that hit virtually 70% of his passes, led his team to roughly 35 points a game and an undefeated regular season, just because he didn’t play well against the best front seven we’ve seen in a while. Come on, Ian, don’t you dare leave the pocket too early, even if you don’t see anything, and whatever you do, do not throw an errant deep ball cuz the recruiting expert and the guy whose dog you ran over will call you out on it. I get why the qb gets the strongest microscope but why the need to rag on a guy that played as well as he did still boggles my mind. Put the same microscope on all 22 starters and I think we’ll find other areas that are more of a “concern” than our starting qb. Give it a rest already. What a fun season it’s gonna be, listening to the bashers dissect every single negative nuance of the ND qb’s game. Can’t wait.
So you think that a qb that you called a “backup” that didn’t start the first three games of the season should be amongst the nation’s leaders in td/int ratio? The fact that he was damn close is incredible but that seems like some lofty expectations for a backup, don’t you think? (Take away at least two that weren’t his fault and he’s right there w/ the nation’s leaders, btw). I still have to laugh at all the bitching some of you have done about book. So if he were to stay in the pocket longer and hit on all his deep balls, what would his completion % be? 90%? Just think about that for a bit, you guys are bitching about a qb that hit virtually 70% of his passes, led his team to roughly 35 points a game and an undefeated regular season, just because he didn’t play well against the best front seven we’ve seen in a while. Come on, Ian, don’t you dare leave the pocket too early, even if you don’t see anything, and whatever you do, do not throw an errant deep ball cuz the recruiting expert and the guy whose dog you ran over will call you out on it. I get why the qb gets the strongest microscope but why the need to rag on a guy that played as well as he did still boggles my mind. Put the same microscope on all 22 starters and I think we’ll find other areas that are more of a “concern” than our starting qb. Give it a rest already. What a fun season it’s gonna be, listening to the bashers dissect every single negative nuance of the ND qb’s game. Can’t wait.
i'm glad Book doesn't listen to Francade or Patrirish. He would have been content with his performance last year. As EVERYONE with any knowledge of the game or ability to read ND football reports, or the ability to listen to the coaches speak would know, Book had a bunch of things to work on. Hopefully he has improved on them, and we see an improved book!
You do realize that pro teams, in season prepare for their opponents in the neighbourhood of 15-16 hours per day, right? Between practice, team film, position group film, strength and conditioning, etc, 15×6 = 90 hours, plus what game day prep prior to kick off.
Coaches spend even more time. A lot of coaches sleep in their offices or at the facility a couple nights per week so they don't have to commute to and from work. It isn't unheard of for coaches to work 18+ hour days in season, get about 5-6 hours of sleep, get up and start working again. That's why they look so damb exhausted all the time.
We worked 90 hour weeks in season when I was coaching college ball. We only had access to our kids for about 30 hours though each week. Kids that we sent to play pro football would almost always comment on how much of a commitment and adjustment it was in their rookie season, trippling the expectations of their time commitment to their craft.
I called him a backup on a playoff team and have since admitted countless times that I was wrong, including in this thread, where I talked about the awesome season I think he's going to have. Can we not move on from what I thought about the kid 2+ years ago and focus on who he is now?
Secondly, the comments about staying in the pocket, finishing progressions, and throwing a more catchable deep ball came from his position coach. Yes, I mentioned a little bit of that before Rees' comments, because it was obvious on film against Pitt, USC to a lesser extent and Clemson. It wasn't me that mentioned the 6 or 7 downfield missed opportunities against Va Tech. It was Rees.
As for his TD / INT ratio, this is what I've said in this thread.
1. I think Book is going to have the best season at QB we've seen since Brady Quinn's 2005 season at ND. Although Kizer's 2015 season was pretty damn remarkable as well... That's pretty high praise.
2. I'm hopeful and confident that Ian can improve enough in the deep passing game to provide ND more "shot plays" and explosive plays on downfield throws this year.
3. Both Chip Long and Tommy Rees have spoken about the urgency to complete more big plays. I'd easily take a drop in completion percentage by 3-5% if it meant the completion of a couple more downfield throws per game that lead to points. I don't expect the kid to be a 50% guy on downfield throws. That's unrealistic. I just want him to find Claypool and Finke when they're open and to throw a couple up for Chase, even when he's covered and let him be 6'4.5, 225lbs. Troy Pride can't defend him in camp. He's got whooped for the past 3 weeks. How many teams that ND is going to face have a better corner than that kid? Not many. Trust your senior receivers playing for NFL contracts.
3. Book led his team to 32+ points per game. That's awesome in his first year, but if we're going to start talking about him among the best in college football, he needs to be up closer to 40 ppg and he needs to put up points against the better defenses.
I don't know why you think it's impossible for us to be excited about the QB Ian has become, and also critique the areas in which he needs to improve for him and ND to take the next step... Particularly when his QB coach and offensive coordinator have been saying many of the exact same things we have this off season in terms of where they want him to go next with his development.
You cannot cherry pick though. There were also multiple big plays where wrs made a great play on the ball to prevent an int.
All part of the game
“i'm glad Book doesn't listen to Francade or Patrirish. He would have been content with his performance last year. As EVERYONE with any knowledge of the game or ability to read ND football reports, or the ability to listen to the coaches speak would know, Book had a bunch of things to work on. Hopefully he has improved on them,and we see an improved book!l
If he listened to you, he’d probably commit hari-kari. You’re a clown that thinks he knows more than everyone else and is way, way too critical of a qb that had a great year, but you’re too busy dissecting his game to notice. You have no clue when it comes to his season last year. Just like the supposed expert that called him a backup at best.
No one ever said he can’t work on getting better but when you make statements like “he had a bunch of things to work on”, you sound like an idiot.
If he listened to you, he’d probably commit hari-kari. You’re a clown that thinks he knows more than everyone else and is way, way too critical of a qb that had a great year, but you’re too busy dissecting his game to notice. You have no clue when it comes to his season last year. Just like the supposed expert that called him a backup at best.
No one ever said he can’t work on getting better but when you make statements like “he had a bunch of things to work on”, you sound like an idiot.
“You cannot cherry pick though. There were also multiple big plays where wrs made a great play on the ball to prevent an int.
All part of the game”
Multiple plays that wrs made great plays to prevent an INT? Really? This is the new rip? I don’t remember any of what you’re taking about. Care to cite the “multiple” times this happened?
All part of the game”
Multiple plays that wrs made great plays to prevent an INT? Really? This is the new rip? I don’t remember any of what you’re taking about. Care to cite the “multiple” times this happened?
“Particularly when his QB coach and offensive coordinator have been saying many of the exact same things we have this off season in terms of where they want him to go next with his development.”
Neither coach has said anything remotely close to the shit you’ve spewed, especially during your in-game tantrums. Your analysis of book is meaningless. Anything he’s done already has blown your initial analysis out of the water. He made you look stupid and you’re begging for him to fall on his face so you can say I told you so. Clemson was a wet dream for you cuz the rest of the year he made you look like an idiot.
Neither coach has said anything remotely close to the shit you’ve spewed, especially during your in-game tantrums. Your analysis of book is meaningless. Anything he’s done already has blown your initial analysis out of the water. He made you look stupid and you’re begging for him to fall on his face so you can say I told you so. Clemson was a wet dream for you cuz the rest of the year he made you look like an idiot.
NO, he didn’t!
You’re wrong again, as usual !
Big Ben completed 61 passes for 20 yards or more out of 675 attempts.
That’s 9 % of all of his attempts
Those numbers are directly from the NFL and irrefutable.
You have so much to learn and only have so much time to devote to help educate you.
That pass was on the money, your problem is you listened to the announcer rather than looking at the play.
The announcer didn’t even see the PI until a second angle on the replay revealed what anybody with a reasonable football IQ could detect, obvious PI as the DB hit Boykin before the ball hit the receiver.
It was only when the ND crowd reacted to the replay that the announcer “discovered” the PI.
Everyone should try to improve.
Of course I’m content with Book’s performance last year.
He completed 68.2 % of his passes and had a YPA of 8.4 and went undefeated in the regular season.
Every player has things to work on, everyone strives to improve.
Please don’t pretend that you have an in depth knowledge of football.
