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USC odds

This game always makes me nervous... to the point I wanna puke thinking about it. (good thing I'm not on the field huh? lol). Fortunately, I won't be able to watch this one. Thing that bothers me is SC has zero to lose here. They aren't playing for much. So they're going to be dangerous.

SC, more often than not, has athletes all over the field. I think ND wins this game, but I don't think it will be a throttling at all. I'd be tickled to get out of there with a W by a touchdown.
 
What I don’t get is the benching of QB Miller Moss, other than Lincoln Riley needing to blame someone for the 5 losses. Moss is IMO a decent to good CFB QB, better than the guy that replaced him. And certainly a better passer of the football.


I remain baffled by USC struggling. Of all colleges, you'd think they have it the best opportunity to be good: great CA talent, monopoly in the state, blue blood, tons of money, and academic accommodation.

I agree Maiava doesn't look too good.
 
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I remain baffled by USC struggling. Of all colleges, you'd think they have it the best opportunity to be good: great CA talent, monopoly in the state, blue blood, tons of money, and academic accommodation.

I agree Maiava doesn't look too good.
They do not have a monopoly in the state of California.
 
What I don’t get is the benching of QB Miller Moss, other than Lincoln Riley needing to blame someone for the 5 losses. Moss is IMO a decent to good CFB QB, better than the guy that replaced him. And certainly a better passer of the football.
The other guy is a better runner
 
Riley could salvage the season by upsetting Notre Dame

do not fall asleep on this game

USC has cost Notre Dame national championships by upsets in the past
 
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Brian Kelly managed to beat USC in 12 & 18 to get ND to the playoffs. This year will be no different. A comfortable win this time, as mentioned earlier in thread by 3 or more scores.
He managed to do it. Of course BK would lose any big game, because he's a horrible coach. Or he's only good at beating easy teams that nobody cares about whether you even win those games, and in any kind of important game he's awful and we lose. Typically we get destroyed and humiliated. Not just humbled, humiliated. But he did nevertheless 'manage' to win those two critical games, with a playoff spot on the line. I don't know how, but he did. In fact it really is a marvel that he won those two games. For the life or me I don't know how he did it. But at least he proved that it can definitely be done. If BK can win a football game against a team with a pulse, then it's at least possible. I imagine those teams were better than this shitty, underachieving USC team, making it even more amazing, and improbable that he actually won those games. Astonishing, really, I believe would be the word for it. Astonishment. Sheer astonishment, that a BK-coached team actually won a game against a respectable foe, with something important riding on it. I still don't belleve it actually happened. I think there's a thing called false memory syndrome, or maybe the so-called Mandela effect? I don't think we actually won those games, we lost. BK doesn't win big games. But on account of the Mandela effect people have a memory of specific things that never actually happened. And we didn't actually beat USC.

Anyway, I like our chances against the condoms this weekend. Playoff bound, baby!
 
Riley could salvage the season by upsetting Notre Dame

do not fall asleep on this game

USC has cost Notre Dame national championships by upsets in the past


I'm not.

But as usual, I predict based on heart and head.

On heart, always ND.

On head...well, if you made me bet my net worth on this game...ND all day.

But, you are right, can't sleep on it...MF has to bring it...his moment, period.

This is the 1st game of the playoffs in reality.
 
He managed to do it. Of course BK would lose any big game, because he's a horrible coach. Or he's only good at beating easy teams that nobody cares about whether you even win those games, and in any kind of important game he's awful and we lose. Typically we get destroyed and humiliated. Not just humbled, humiliated. But he did nevertheless 'manage' to win those two critical games, with a playoff spot on the line. I don't know how, but he did. In fact it really is a marvel that he won those two games. For the life or me I don't know how he did it. But at least he proved that it can definitely be done. If BK can win a football game against a team with a pulse, then it's at least possible. I imagine those teams were better than this shitty, underachieving USC team, making it even more amazing, and improbable that he actually won those games. Astonishing, really, I believe would be the word for it. Astonishment. Sheer astonishment, that a BK-coached team actually won a game against a respectable foe, with something important riding on it. I still don't belleve it actually happened. I think there's a thing called false memory syndrome, or maybe the so-called Mandela effect? I don't think we actually won those games, we lost. BK doesn't win big games. But on account of the Mandela effect people have a memory of specific things that never actually happened. And we didn't actually beat USC.

Anyway, I like our chances against the condoms this weekend. Playoff bound, baby!
 
The other guy is a better runner
I think this was his way of making room for yet another portal guy. Throw moss u der the bus. Bring in Maiva. He’s competent but not QB of the future. Then go in the portal for a one year guy and bring along the 5 star kid who assumes the role in 2026. That’s if Riley is even there by then,
 
He managed to do it. Of course BK would lose any big game, because he's a horrible coach. Or he's only good at beating easy teams that nobody cares about whether you even win those games, and in any kind of important game he's awful and we lose. Typically we get destroyed and humiliated. Not just humbled, humiliated. But he did nevertheless 'manage' to win those two critical games, with a playoff spot on the line. I don't know how, but he did. In fact it really is a marvel that he won those two games. For the life or me I don't know how he did it. But at least he proved that it can definitely be done. If BK can win a football game against a team with a pulse, then it's at least possible. I imagine those teams were better than this shitty, underachieving USC team, making it even more amazing, and improbable that he actually won those games. Astonishing, really, I believe would be the word for it. Astonishment. Sheer astonishment, that a BK-coached team actually won a game against a respectable foe, with something important riding on it. I still don't belleve it actually happened. I think there's a thing called false memory syndrome, or maybe the so-called Mandela effect? I don't think we actually won those games, we lost. BK doesn't win big games. But on account of the Mandela effect people have a memory of specific things that never actually happened. And we didn't actually beat USC.

Anyway, I like our chances against the condoms this weekend. Playoff bound, baby!
I really hope you're right.
 
He managed to do it. Of course BK would lose any big game, because he's a horrible coach. Or he's only good at beating easy teams that nobody cares about whether you even win those games, and in any kind of important game he's awful and we lose. Typically we get destroyed and humiliated. Not just humbled, humiliated. But he did nevertheless 'manage' to win those two critical games, with a playoff spot on the line. I don't know how, but he did. In fact it really is a marvel that he won those two games. For the life or me I don't know how he did it. But at least he proved that it can definitely be done. If BK can win a football game against a team with a pulse, then it's at least possible. I imagine those teams were better than this shitty, underachieving USC team, making it even more amazing, and improbable that he actually won those games. Astonishing, really, I believe would be the word for it. Astonishment. Sheer astonishment, that a BK-coached team actually won a game against a respectable foe, with something important riding on it. I still don't belleve it actually happened. I think there's a thing called false memory syndrome, or maybe the so-called Mandela effect? I don't think we actually won those games, we lost. BK doesn't win big games. But on account of the Mandela effect people have a memory of specific things that never actually happened. And we didn't actually beat USC.

Anyway, I like our chances against the condoms this weekend. Playoff bound, baby!
Those USC teams were mediocre at best, similar to this year. 12 team finished 7-5, 18 finished 5-7.
 
This game always makes me nervous... to the point I wanna puke thinking about it. (good thing I'm not on the field huh? lol). Fortunately, I won't be able to watch this one. Thing that bothers me is SC has zero to lose here. They aren't playing for much. So they're going to be dangerous.

SC, more often than not, has athletes all over the field. I think ND wins this game, but I don't think it will be a throttling at all. I'd be tickled to get out of there with a W by a touchdown.
This game should make everyone nervous. USC has nothing to lose and ND has everything to lose.

Alabama was favored by two touchdowns at Oklahoma.

The underdog in this game has traditionally always played above their expectations.

This is not a trap game, but going coast to coast is not easy for anyone.

On paper, this game shouldn’t be close. In reality, it has the potential to be a nailbiter or total nightmare.
 
OK.

IMO, based on what I watched this season, he isn’t a better QB.

Especially for a head coach who prefers to throw 40 times a game.
That's the problem with the head coach. They should be a running team. Their back is a stud and now you have a QB that can move.

I hope Riley tries to throw 40x against our secondary
 
That's the problem with the head coach. They should be a running team. Their back is a stud and now you have a QB that can move.

I hope Riley tries to throw 40x against our secondary
The 2024 OL at USC IMO isn’t good enough to depend on the run.
 
The 2024 OL at USC IMO isn’t good enough to depend on the run.
Their top 2 backs average over 6 ypc and JuJu has over 1100 yards and one of the best backs in the country

That's what they should lean on with this new QB but I hope LR remains stubborn to his true love, the pass game
 
I think we analyzed this to the nth degree. Lots of good points.

I get USC has nothing to lose and ND everything to gain...but for me is an advantage for ND.

When I played soccer back in the day, I relished a less talented opponent in a 1 game for a playoff...taking nothing for granted, respecting them fully...it was just an extra motivating factor.

I expect the same for ND. MF knows what is at stake...it is his time...he's the key guy here...organize, inspire, with some game time tuning.
 
I think USC is soft like their coach, and will fold like a cheap tent when facing NDs physical lines. I could be wrong, I wasn't around in 64 or 70. I do remember 1988, 2012, and 2018 though.
 
Their top 2 backs average over 6 ypc and JuJu has over 1100 yards and one of the best backs in the country

That's what they should lean on with this new QB but I hope LR remains stubborn to his true love, the pass game
I don’t care what the average is. The 2024 OL at USC is not good enough to depend on the run. They simply aren’t.
 
I see the line is up to -7.5 ND

I was going to say, if the line was still at only 3ish points, I would maybe be making my first bet and putting down some serious cash on it.
 
This game should make everyone nervous. USC has nothing to lose and ND has everything to lose.

Alabama was favored by two touchdowns at Oklahoma.

The underdog in this game has traditionally always played above their expectations.

This is not a trap game, but going coast to coast is not easy for anyone.

On paper, this game shouldn’t be close. In reality, it has the potential to be a nailbiter or total nightmare.
It's all true. USC has won their last two games, in unspectacular fashion. So at least they're not fighting for bowl eligibility. And their new starting QB is a marginal upgrade, if at all. But still, you're absolutely right, they're capable.
 
It's all true. USC has won their last two games, in unspectacular fashion. So at least they're not fighting for bowl eligibility. And their new starting QB is a marginal upgrade, if at all. But still, you're absolutely right, they're capable.
Everybody is capable of beating everybody but ND is WAY ahead of USC at this point. This should be a pretty one sided stomp.
 
This game should make everyone nervous. USC has nothing to lose and ND has everything to lose.

Alabama was favored by two touchdowns at Oklahoma.

The underdog in this game has traditionally always played above their expectations.

This is not a trap game, but going coast to coast is not easy for anyone.

On paper, this game shouldn’t be close. In reality, it has the potential to be a nailbiter or total nightmare.
I agree that ON PAPER ND should win comfortably enough. But given the series history, will it?

Also, while the power rating system I've developed and use to evaluate teams has ND between 24 and 28 points stronger against a given common opponent, I doubt ND is that much better than USC head-to-head at their place.

All of USC's losses have been by 7 or fewer points, with a couple by 3 and one by 1. And as someone else has claimed, they were leading going into the 4th quarter in every game except one. If ND falls behind 10-0 or 14-0, the game could turn out a tough challenge. USC's QB is slippery, and their receivers can CATCH. Plus, Marx is an excellent runnning back.

USC will be extremely jacked up as this game provides them with the perfect opportunity to finish an otherwise frustrating season on a high note while ruining ND's playoff hopes.

As the more physcial team, ND must GO AT THEM HARD FROM THE WHISTLE. AND THEN NOT LET UP. USC is used to playing in tight games and also coming back from DEFICITS.

It's clear they'll be READY.
 
Its college football and if ND fans know anything its that you can lose to anybody

But ND has an opponent and luck adjusted offense of #13, and a luck and opponent adjusted defense of #3 to USCs #18 offense, and #32 defense.

USC isn't a bad team despite their win loss record, but ND is simply a much better team this season.

FPIs 20,000 simulations of this game has ND at a 71% win chance vs USC.
The point spread is at 7.5 but will probably continue to grow wider as we get closer to Saturday and more smart money comes in on ND.

This should be an easy win.
 
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I know, that's so true. He was awful. I forgot about that horrible coach. But Lincoln Riley's hardly any better. Who'd've thunk that.

Lincoln also has a confused and defeated look. Doesn't have the swagger he once did. Things are not going his way and it seems to show.

Body language isn't always representative of what somebody feels...but I think it is in this case.

I keep getting surprised how coaches past and present with seemingly all the resources can underperform.

DeBoer. BK at LSU. Riley. Moore at MI. Jimbo Fisher.
 
Lincoln also has a confused and defeated look. Doesn't have the swagger he once did. Things are not going his way and it seems to show.

Body language isn't always representative of what somebody feels...but I think it is in this case.

I keep getting surprised how coaches past and present with seemingly all the resources can underperform.

DeBoer. BK at LSU. Riley. Moore at MI. Jimbo Fisher.
Read one sentence. Bullshit.

Then read further.

Anyone can sit on a couch, wait for someone to lose games, and point out faults.

Garbage.
 
Read one sentence. Bullshit.

Then read further.

Anyone can sit on a couch, wait for someone to lose games, and point out faults.

Garbage.


Games are played. We evaluate. Noting strengths and weaknesses.

Kinda how causality works. But let me guess, you have the power of retroactive causality?

😀

Man are you a curmudgeon. It's just banter. Not a thesis awaiting academic review.
 
Games are played. We evaluate. Noting strengths and weaknesses.

Kinda how causality works. But let me guess, you have the power of retroactive causality?

😀

Man are you a curmudgeon. It's just banter. Not a thesis awaiting academic review.
Me a curmudgeon?

Why don’t you apply for a high profile CFB head coaching job? Start next season.

Then let posters evaluate you.
 
Me a curmudgeon?

Why don’t you apply for a high profile CFB head coaching job? Start next season.

Then let posters evaluate you.

And why would I do that given how you do an excellent job of evaluating me?

So keep talking. I'm Dr. Frasier Crane...I'm listening!

:p

BTW: I'm not even being that critical. Like I said, just casual banter.
 
NIU ??

10 men in the field

Bullshit.

Garbage.


I don't know why he gets so upset at chat board banter. I didn't attack any of those coaches. Nor claimed I can do better.

It's the nature of being a fan to chat about our beloved teams and sports.

We're all in on Notre Dame. I am so much that I post gratuitously sometimes about it. And it works like a charm!

My wife is banishing me to indulge in peace, as she's sick of me talking about Notre Dame football!

:D

Can't wait for this Saturday.
 
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ND is only a 3.5 to 6.5 favorite

USC is always dangerous at home !

Critical game !
USC has been kinda tough through three quarters and then the wheels fall off. Don't know if it's lack of discipline,stamina or a panic when a good team confronts them. They have offensive weapons but that D doesn't hold up for long. If ND gets out of the gate fast. Look out!
 
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ND is only a 3.5 to 6.5 favorite

USC is always dangerous at home !

Critical game !
Looks like it has bounced to 7.5. Pat - I know you like to discuss the odds and what it means when they move by a full point - like you did when we were playing A&M. You must find this incredibly encouraging given your prior posts. I would still give the points. Go Irish.
 
Looks like it has bounced to 7.5. Pat - I know you like to discuss the odds and what it means when they move by a full point - like you did when we were playing A&M. You must find this incredibly encouraging given your prior posts. I would still give the points. Go Irish.
Once Vegas sets the opening line, the flow of money alters the line..

Each alteration is a separate pool

The way the line is moving indicates that more money is flowing in on Notre Dame, but Vegas felt that ND was a 3.5-4.0 favorite.

The fact that Vegas had ND at less than the touchdown favorite, concerns me.

USC it’s always a challenge at home
 
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Once Vegas sets the opening line, the flow of money alters the line..

Each alteration is a separate pool

The way the line is moving indicates that more money is flowing in on Notre Dame, but Vegas felt that ND was a 3.5-4.0 favorite.

The fact that Vegas had ND at less than the touchdown favorite, concerns me.

USC it’s always a challenge at home
Because Vegas has been so right with the ND spreads this year..... lol
 
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