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The deal that might kill the Pac-12 and spark conference re-alignment

Catholicfan95

ND Expert
Jun 3, 2013
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With each passing season the Pac-12 continues to fall further behind in revenue distribution to its Power Five piers of the SEC, Big Ten, ACC and Big 12. Commissioner Larry Scott negotiated a long term television deal back 2012 that does not expire until 2024. During that 12 year span the other conferences have had multiple TV deals that have significantly improved their financial situations.

According to Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News, financial projections for Pac-12 media rights distributions in 2019 will be $33 million per school. The SEC is expected to distribute $44.6 million to its member schools and the Big Ten is expected to distribute a staggering $55 million to its member schools.

That is already a huge revenue gap and it is certainly going to get wider over the next four years before the Pac-12 gets a new media rights deal.


New USC athletic director Mike Bohn recently joined the Peristyle Podcast and talked about the competitive disadvantage Pac-12 teams are facing.

"We all know that the Pac-12 media rights deal has not met our expectations and we are falling drastically behind," Bohn said. "Just from 2018 numbers, we're $11 million per year, per institution, shy of the average remaining four Power Five conferences. So that's a gap that is a serious competitive disadvantage for us.

"This is something that we really have to spend a lot more time on and ensure that we can find some solutions because we are closer to the American Athletic Conference in the distributions than we are to the SEC and Big Ten.

"I know Larry Scott and his team are committed to try and find those solutions for us."

The Trojans have the most prestigious brand in the conference Bohn knows it. He is ready for USC to step up and take more of a leadership role in the Pac-12.

"It's really simple, you think of the LA market and the value to the league there, obviously our ongoing series with Notre Dame, our marquee games that we commit to in non-conference, it's important for us to continue to be leaders in the Pac-12," Bohn said. "It's important for us to operate from a place of strength."


That translates to USC getting a bigger share of the pie when the next media rights deal comes together instead of an even split with schools like Oregon State.

But would a larger percentage of the revenue even be enough for the Trojans to keep up with the Alabama's and Ohio State's of the world?

USC's previous two athletic directors had zero college administration experience and both went along in lockstep with the conference leadership. Now, with the Pac-12 unable to keep pace with other top conferences, Bohn has options that would never have been considered previously.

We asked Bohn if he would consider going independent or joining another conference in order to keep USC among the best college football programs in the country.

"I think right now, and Larry would agree with this, everything is on the table," he said.

I am sure Larry Scott would not have advocated USC leaving the Pac-12, but just having that as an option should put the Trojans in a much stronger negotiating position for the next big media rights deal.

Remind me of what happened with Texas and the Big12 and we saw the chaos that ensued then.
 
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With each passing season the Pac-12 continues to fall further behind in revenue distribution to its Power Five piers of the SEC, Big Ten, ACC and Big 12. Commissioner Larry Scott negotiated a long term television deal back 2012 that does not expire until 2024. During that 12 year span the other conferences have had multiple TV deals that have significantly improved their financial situations.

According to Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News, financial projections for Pac-12 media rights distributions in 2019 will be $33 million per school. The SEC is expected to distribute $44.6 million to its member schools and the Big Ten is expected to distribute a staggering $55 million to its member schools.

That is already a huge revenue gap and it is certainly going to get wider over the next four years before the Pac-12 gets a new media rights deal.


New USC athletic director Mike Bohn recently joined the Peristyle Podcast and talked about the competitive disadvantage Pac-12 teams are facing.

"We all know that the Pac-12 media rights deal has not met our expectations and we are falling drastically behind," Bohn said. "Just from 2018 numbers, we're $11 million per year, per institution, shy of the average remaining four Power Five conferences. So that's a gap that is a serious competitive disadvantage for us.

"This is something that we really have to spend a lot more time on and ensure that we can find some solutions because we are closer to the American Athletic Conference in the distributions than we are to the SEC and Big Ten.

"I know Larry Scott and his team are committed to try and find those solutions for us."

The Trojans have the most prestigious brand in the conference Bohn knows it. He is ready for USC to step up and take more of a leadership role in the Pac-12.

"It's really simple, you think of the LA market and the value to the league there, obviously our ongoing series with Notre Dame, our marquee games that we commit to in non-conference, it's important for us to continue to be leaders in the Pac-12," Bohn said. "It's important for us to operate from a place of strength."


That translates to USC getting a bigger share of the pie when the next media rights deal comes together instead of an even split with schools like Oregon State.

But would a larger percentage of the revenue even be enough for the Trojans to keep up with the Alabama's and Ohio State's of the world?

USC's previous two athletic directors had zero college administration experience and both went along in lockstep with the conference leadership. Now, with the Pac-12 unable to keep pace with other top conferences, Bohn has options that would never have been considered previously.

We asked Bohn if he would consider going independent or joining another conference in order to keep USC among the best college football programs in the country.

"I think right now, and Larry would agree with this, everything is on the table," he said.

I am sure Larry Scott would not have advocated USC leaving the Pac-12, but just having that as an option should put the Trojans in a much stronger negotiating position for the next big media rights deal.

Remind me of what happened with Texas and the Big12 and we saw the chaos that ensued then.
These numbers are staggering. We get $15+m a year from our TV contract that runs another five or six years, and over $5m from the ACC, and revenue for games carried by ESPN, etc... and we don’t have to share any Bowl revenue. Although our total revenue annually per student is impressive, makes Me think our tv contract is actually very bad in the context of what these conferences are getting.
 
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These numbers are staggering. We get $15+m a year from our TV contract that runs another five or six years, and over $5m from the ACC, and revenue for games carried by ESPN, etc... and we don’t have to share any Bowl revenue. Although our total revenue annually per student is impressive, makes Me think our tv contract is actually very bad in the context of what these conferences are getting.

The money seems less when looking at it versus conference money, but ND actually is one of the only schools who actually can exist athletically with zero outside funds from TV/conference. Other schools rely on it, for ND it’s just bonus money. With ND’s endowment & small student body, the TV money is just gravy.
 
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These numbers are staggering. We get $15+m a year from our TV contract that runs another five or six years, and over $5m from the ACC, and revenue for games carried by ESPN, etc... and we don’t have to share any Bowl revenue. Although our total revenue annually per student is impressive, makes Me think our tv contract is actually very bad in the context of what these conferences are getting.
If you did not, you need to click the According to Jon Wilner live link.
 
Big Ten School X
Baseline figure: $55 million in FY19 payouts (from USA Today review of Big Ten financial data).
Annual distributions:
FY20: $57.8 million
FY21: $60.7 million
FY22: $63.7 million
FY23: $66.9 million
FY24: $80.7 million (new Tier 1 deal)
Five-year total: $329.8 per school

SEC School Y
Baseline figure: $44.6 million in FY19 payouts (reported by the SEC).
Annual distributions:
FY20: $46.8 million
FY21: $49.1 million
FY22: $70.9 million (new ESPN deal)
FY23: $74.4 million
FY24: $78.1 million
Five-year total: $319.3 million per school

Pac-12 School Z
Baseline figure: $33 million in FY19 payouts (estimate from published data).
Annual distributions:
FY20: $34.6 million
FY21: $36.3 million
FY22: $38.1 million
FY23: $40.0 million
FY24: $42.0 million
Five-year total: $191 million per school

Our TV deal is nothing in comparison. @Telx1 I copied and pasted the data I want you to see.
 
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The money seems less when looking at it versus conference money, but ND actually is one of the only schools who actually can exist athletically with zero outside funds from TV/conference. Other schools rely on it, for ND it’s just bonus money. With ND’s endowment & small student body, the TV money is just gravy.
Afternoon NDAFArly. I appreciate that Notre Dame has a tremendous endowment, etc... but that shouldn’t be a consideration when assessing the value of our tv contract. This should at least be competitive, and it seems we are falling way behind in this regard. Seems the price for staying independent is getting steeper and steeper.
 
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Big Ten School X
Baseline figure: $55 million in FY19 payouts (from USA Today review of Big Ten financial data).
Annual distributions:
FY20: $57.8 million
FY21: $60.7 million
FY22: $63.7 million
FY23: $66.9 million
FY24: $80.7 million (new Tier 1 deal)
Five-year total: $329.8 per school

SEC School Y
Baseline figure: $44.6 million in FY19 payouts (reported by the SEC).
Annual distributions:
FY20: $46.8 million
FY21: $49.1 million
FY22: $70.9 million (new ESPN deal)
FY23: $74.4 million
FY24: $78.1 million
Five-year total: $319.3 million per school

Pac-12 School Z
Baseline figure: $33 million in FY19 payouts (estimate from published data).
Annual distributions:
FY20: $34.6 million
FY21: $36.3 million
FY22: $38.1 million
FY23: $40.0 million
FY24: $42.0 million
Five-year total: $191 million per school

Our TV deal is nothing in comparison. @Telx1 I copied and pasted the data I want you to see.
Thanks for sharing this level of detail. Not sure staggering adequately describes these amounts!
 
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Big Ten School X
Baseline figure: $55 million in FY19 payouts (from USA Today review of Big Ten financial data).
Annual distributions:
FY20: $57.8 million
FY21: $60.7 million
FY22: $63.7 million
FY23: $66.9 million
FY24: $80.7 million (new Tier 1 deal)
Five-year total: $329.8 per school

SEC School Y
Baseline figure: $44.6 million in FY19 payouts (reported by the SEC).
Annual distributions:
FY20: $46.8 million
FY21: $49.1 million
FY22: $70.9 million (new ESPN deal)
FY23: $74.4 million
FY24: $78.1 million
Five-year total: $319.3 million per school

Pac-12 School Z
Baseline figure: $33 million in FY19 payouts (estimate from published data).
Annual distributions:
FY20: $34.6 million
FY21: $36.3 million
FY22: $38.1 million
FY23: $40.0 million
FY24: $42.0 million
Five-year total: $191 million per school

Our TV deal is nothing in comparison. @Telx1 I copied and pasted the data I want you to see.
There are things that I don't think we even know the numbers..the real numbers.
The UA apparel deal. I don't think anyone has that number. I know it's a lot. Well about ad money around the stadium. I would certainly think poster boards, program ads would fetch a bit more at ND than say Michigan State.

The PAC 12 problem will continue and there is no way out IMO.
Even if they collectively played better football most of the TV viewing America is east of them. The time zone hurts. A top ten matchup of USC vs. STANFORD or Oregon is a primetime contest. The problem is now it comes on at 10:30 at night for a huge viewing market (east coast) with only the die hards staying tuned in that late. Advertisers will only spend x amount if given such a late time slot.

If they play earlier nobody will watch as they're watching their very own team which kick off is at 3:30 or 7:30/8:00 EST.

This Pac situation is a real problem.
 
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There are things that I don't think we even know the numbers..the real numbers.
The UA apparel deal. I don't think anyone has that number. I know it's a lot. Well about ad money around the stadium. I would certainly think poster boards, program ads would fetch a bit more at ND than say Michigan State.

The PAC 12 problem will continue and there is no way out IMO.
Even if they collectively played better football most of the TV viewing America is east of them. The time zone hurts. A top ten matchup of USC vs. STANFORD or Oregon is a primetime contest. The problem is now it comes on at 10:30 at night for a huge viewing market (east coast) with only the die hards staying tuned in that late. Advertisers will only spend x amount if given such a late time slot.

If they play earlier nobody will watch as they're watching their very own team which kick off is at 3:30 or 7:30/8:00 EST.

This Pac situation is a real problem.

Let me be clear, this is just a presentation of the facts, I am in no way suggesting any kind of change. Though this data would certainly play well in any argument to do so.

The product, or lack of, also kills the Pac-12 as well and that does not seem to be changing any time soon either.
 
Thanks for sharing this level of detail. Not sure staggering adequately describes these amounts!
Just want to make the point that any sport that has affiliated itself with FOX in the past 5 or so years has done well, to put it mildly. FOX > ESPN and the numbers back that up. If we were to ever leave NBC, I would hope FOX would be the door we open.
 
Afternoon NDAFArly. I appreciate that Notre Dame has a tremendous endowment, etc... but that shouldn’t be a consideration when assessing the value of our tv contract. This should at least be competitive, and it seems we are falling way behind in this regard. Seems the price for staying independent is getting steeper and steeper.

When money is the factor I’m not worried. I think ND’s brand as an independent is worth it since money isn’t hurting at ND. I would be concerned if ND wasn’t spending money on facilities, but the upgrades over the past 5 years & those still to come are pretty amazing.
 
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With each passing season the Pac-12 continues to fall further behind in revenue distribution to its Power Five piers of the SEC, Big Ten, ACC and Big 12. Commissioner Larry Scott negotiated a long term television deal back 2012 that does not expire until 2024. During that 12 year span the other conferences have had multiple TV deals that have significantly improved their financial situations.

According to Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News, financial projections for Pac-12 media rights distributions in 2019 will be $33 million per school. The SEC is expected to distribute $44.6 million to its member schools and the Big Ten is expected to distribute a staggering $55 million to its member schools.

That is already a huge revenue gap and it is certainly going to get wider over the next four years before the Pac-12 gets a new media rights deal.


New USC athletic director Mike Bohn recently joined the Peristyle Podcast and talked about the competitive disadvantage Pac-12 teams are facing.

"We all know that the Pac-12 media rights deal has not met our expectations and we are falling drastically behind," Bohn said. "Just from 2018 numbers, we're $11 million per year, per institution, shy of the average remaining four Power Five conferences. So that's a gap that is a serious competitive disadvantage for us.

"This is something that we really have to spend a lot more time on and ensure that we can find some solutions because we are closer to the American Athletic Conference in the distributions than we are to the SEC and Big Ten.

"I know Larry Scott and his team are committed to try and find those solutions for us."

The Trojans have the most prestigious brand in the conference Bohn knows it. He is ready for USC to step up and take more of a leadership role in the Pac-12.

"It's really simple, you think of the LA market and the value to the league there, obviously our ongoing series with Notre Dame, our marquee games that we commit to in non-conference, it's important for us to continue to be leaders in the Pac-12," Bohn said. "It's important for us to operate from a place of strength."


That translates to USC getting a bigger share of the pie when the next media rights deal comes together instead of an even split with schools like Oregon State.

But would a larger percentage of the revenue even be enough for the Trojans to keep up with the Alabama's and Ohio State's of the world?

USC's previous two athletic directors had zero college administration experience and both went along in lockstep with the conference leadership. Now, with the Pac-12 unable to keep pace with other top conferences, Bohn has options that would never have been considered previously.

We asked Bohn if he would consider going independent or joining another conference in order to keep USC among the best college football programs in the country.

"I think right now, and Larry would agree with this, everything is on the table," he said.

I am sure Larry Scott would not have advocated USC leaving the Pac-12, but just having that as an option should put the Trojans in a much stronger negotiating position for the next big media rights deal.

Remind me of what happened with Texas and the Big12 and we saw the chaos that ensued then.

It's pretty common in these Conference Realignment (CR) soap operas to misalign the horse---cart. the SEC and BUG10 get big tv contracts because their region has a large number and high density of college sports fans. West Coast fans care mostly about the NFL, throwing a lot of money at the PAC will not cause them to become more popular.
 
When the best recruit in Ca. and arguably a Top 5 nationally, gets a Clemson tat in March, 8 months before early signing date, then clearly the P12 and California schools have a serious problem.
Recruits, even Ca. recruits, no longer view the P12 as ‘big time’ college football!

When USC was presumed primed to fire Helton, and after virtually his entire staff was fired, Helton’s audacious remarks were, ‘I ain’t going anywhere’. How could a guy on such a hot seat, be so incredibly, audacious, arrogantly self assured of his security? What could possibly be going on behind the curtain?
L. Smith has done for the P12 what Helton has done for USC. Again, he keeps on keeping on!
What is the full story behind the P12 demise?
 
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