Stewart Mandel in The Athletic addressed the oft repeated claim that ND is overrated and always fails in marquee games. Mandel reviewed stats for the Brian Kelly era and compared Notre Dames record against ranked teams to other schools. He used the fact that ND was the 11th most ranked team during the Kelly era as kind of a baseline:
So, has Notre Dame under Kelly beaten Top 25 teams at a rate commensurate with the 11th-most frequently ranked team in the country? On the whole, yes. Its 20-20 record against ranked teams is exactly 11th-best among the teams on our list. However, if we focus only on games in which both the Irish and their opponent were ranked, their 16-17 record drops them to 17th.
The former category suggests Notre Dame’s Top 25 record is perfectly respectable; the latter provides some fodder for those who believe the Irish too frequently “choke” in big games. Though to be fair, they are 13-8 as the higher-ranked team and 3-9 as the lower-ranked team in those Top 25 matchups.
The Irish are just 3-8 against top-10 foes since 2010 and just 2-6 in games where both participants are top-10 teams. They rank just 19th and 20th, respectively, in those categories. Their highest-ranked conquest at the time of the game was No. 7 Stanford in 2018, and that Cardinal team finished the season unranked.
Mind you, it’s hard to beat top-10 opponents. Only six teams — Ohio State (17-5), Alabama (26-8), Clemson (15-7), LSU (20-12), Oregon (10-7) and Oklahoma (14-10) — have a winning record against such foes. But in games where you yourself are a top-10 team, you should probably win more than 25 percent. TCU (4-3) and Baylor (3-3) have both won more top-10 vs. top-10 games since 2010 than the Irish.
On the other hand, teams with even worse top-10 records than Notre Dame include Nebraska (3-12), Penn State (2-15) and, once again, Michigan (2-19), which holds the distinctions of both worst top-10 record and worst top-10 vs. top-10 record (1-6) among the 25 most frequently ranked teams.
I agree with Mandel's conclusion:
If your bar for overrated is not as good as Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State, then yes, absolutely, the Irish are. But that would be unfair, because the pollsters have rarely ranked Notre Dame as high as those programs to begin with. It’s more constructive to compare the Irish’s performance relative to their comparable peers.
Two things jumped out at me in reading the article:
(1) Just how few top-10 teams that Kelly has faced while at Notre Dame - just 11 matchups, in comparison to other schools like Alabama with 34 such games, LSU with 32 games, Oklahoma with 24 games and Clemson and Ohio State with 22 such games. Of course Alabama and LSU play in the SEC where is seems the pollsters rank every SEC team in the top-10.
(2) Got another laugh with Michigan and Penn State. Michigan has a wonderful 2-19 record in top-10 matchups and Penn State's record in those matchups is a woeful 2-15.
So, has Notre Dame under Kelly beaten Top 25 teams at a rate commensurate with the 11th-most frequently ranked team in the country? On the whole, yes. Its 20-20 record against ranked teams is exactly 11th-best among the teams on our list. However, if we focus only on games in which both the Irish and their opponent were ranked, their 16-17 record drops them to 17th.
The former category suggests Notre Dame’s Top 25 record is perfectly respectable; the latter provides some fodder for those who believe the Irish too frequently “choke” in big games. Though to be fair, they are 13-8 as the higher-ranked team and 3-9 as the lower-ranked team in those Top 25 matchups.
The Irish are just 3-8 against top-10 foes since 2010 and just 2-6 in games where both participants are top-10 teams. They rank just 19th and 20th, respectively, in those categories. Their highest-ranked conquest at the time of the game was No. 7 Stanford in 2018, and that Cardinal team finished the season unranked.
Mind you, it’s hard to beat top-10 opponents. Only six teams — Ohio State (17-5), Alabama (26-8), Clemson (15-7), LSU (20-12), Oregon (10-7) and Oklahoma (14-10) — have a winning record against such foes. But in games where you yourself are a top-10 team, you should probably win more than 25 percent. TCU (4-3) and Baylor (3-3) have both won more top-10 vs. top-10 games since 2010 than the Irish.
On the other hand, teams with even worse top-10 records than Notre Dame include Nebraska (3-12), Penn State (2-15) and, once again, Michigan (2-19), which holds the distinctions of both worst top-10 record and worst top-10 vs. top-10 record (1-6) among the 25 most frequently ranked teams.
I agree with Mandel's conclusion:
If your bar for overrated is not as good as Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State, then yes, absolutely, the Irish are. But that would be unfair, because the pollsters have rarely ranked Notre Dame as high as those programs to begin with. It’s more constructive to compare the Irish’s performance relative to their comparable peers.
Two things jumped out at me in reading the article:
(1) Just how few top-10 teams that Kelly has faced while at Notre Dame - just 11 matchups, in comparison to other schools like Alabama with 34 such games, LSU with 32 games, Oklahoma with 24 games and Clemson and Ohio State with 22 such games. Of course Alabama and LSU play in the SEC where is seems the pollsters rank every SEC team in the top-10.
(2) Got another laugh with Michigan and Penn State. Michigan has a wonderful 2-19 record in top-10 matchups and Penn State's record in those matchups is a woeful 2-15.
