Reading paths to a final 4

[Izo]

I've read the posts on scenarios to a berth .

To date ,other than playing Clemson , ND does not have a great strength of schedule .

Power teams in each conference have to beat up each other,Oklahoma,Baylor ,TCU,Oklahoma State ,West Virginia in the Big 12 is the best example . Also in the PAC 12 ,Utah, Stanford, USC,UCLA ,California,Arizona State is another example .

However ,there has to be major upsets( like Texas beating Oklahoma and Georgia Tech beating Florida State ) .Lower tier teams have to have major upsets against top 10 teams . 2 loss teams winning their conference championships helps ND . This really has got to happen .

Right now , one team at least from the Big 10 ,SEC and ACC( Clemson) are likely in .

And Notre Dame has to win out . Who knows after the crazy endings to the GT/FSU and Michigan/Michigan St, there is a small window of hope .

 

[perseverare]

Recruiting class stats indicate for tOSU, SEC, and Pac12 was USC. USC turmoil eliminates any chances, they are out.
FSU is high probability off recruiting and Clemson was the 2nd group that looked a year away. Looks like Clemson cut the line.
4th spot was a grey area.

The lack of the superstar QB has left the door open in '15.

 

[MTIrish98]

I thought I read on another site that ND's schedule was still top 25. I can't find it now though.

Bottom line: ND needs to win out and needs a few other upsets to happen so they are the top 1-loss team.

 

[Irish Grandeur]

Hope ND is not last year's TCU. Like TCU, ND is better this year than next year. The Irish are no longer in the driver's seat but far from being out of contention. Keep winning and hope the football gods are kind.

 

[lyonhawk]

I think we need to be looking at how conferences can get eliminated. Right now, if we win out I think the PAC 12 is out (because we will have beaten Stanford in that scenario).

ACC-Clemson looks like a mortal lock right now, but a loss to FSU or in the ACCCG could change that. If FSU wins out or the other division pulls an upset in the title game, the ACC is probably out. Doomsday scenario for the ACC is FSU beating Clemson but losing to Florida or a monumental upset in the title game.

Big XII. I think they kinda screwed themselves the way the scheduled the 4 heavyweights to finish the season all against each other. Most college teams are not used to having to get up for big games every week like TCU, Baylor, Ok St, and Oklahoma are going to to end the season. It's very likely none of them escape undefeated, and I have a hard time seeing a one-loss team from that group getting in again, largely in part to the atrocious OOC schedules most of them play. OU generally schedules better, but that loss to Texas is going to look really bad.

B1G. The only scenario I can see this conference eliminating itself is OSU beats Michigan St, and then loses to Michigan, and Iowa loses the championship game.

SEC. Right now, I see Alabama winning out and taking a spot here. It gets really interesting though with Ole Miss. If they can manage to keep it together and win out, they have 2 losses but one OOC and would own the tiebreaker over the LSU/Alabama winner. It's hard to see Ole Miss getting in with that loss to Memphis, which would leave a 1-loss LSU/Bama as a non-division winner looking to try to steal a spot.

The most likely scenario I see for us to get in goes like this: Clemson wins out and takes one spot (also making our lone loss much better), Ohio State wins out and takes the B1G, Bama wins out, we win out eliminating Standford in the process and the 4 Big XII teams cannibalize themselves. Obviously, there's still a ton of football to be played, and back in 2012 we were afraid of 4 teams finishing undefeated and ended up with only 1, so no one really knows what's going to happen.

 

[perseverare]

the SEC/ACC scenario where a non division winner could bea final 4 choice is crazy! National Champ but not division or conference champ?!

 

[basketlax41]

one thing we MAY have in our favor is we may allow the committee to not make the difficult decisions. if there are two one loss sec teams, or two one loss acc teams, or two one loss big 12 teams...maybe easier to just choose ND, than an arbitrary decision. although head to head may make this moot.

 

[1Redrum]

Assuming Notre Dame beats Pitt, Stanford and Temple are there any other teams that say they have beaten 3 teams in the top 25 when they played them as well as (being even more optimistic here) having USC in the final top 25 and having strong finishes by Georgia Tech, Navy and Texas placing all of these schools in the Top 40....or Top 50 with the only loss being on the road to #1 or #2 Clemson I think they are in.

 

[MTIrish98]

I think we need FSU or the coastal division rep as the ACC champ. If it comes down to a 1 loss Clemson team or a 1 loss ND team, we are hosed. That's an easy decision for the committee.

The Big 12 and SEC have lots of potential scenarios left where their champ has 2 losses or has a worse loss than ND.

 

[perseverare]

if Clemson beats FSU; FSU is cooked! Clemson is very likely in the playoffs.
ND beats SU and PAC12 is out
If round robin in the B12 results in a 2 loss champ, they are out.
tOSU beats MSU and UM beats tOSU then the B10 needs to pick a rep!
The SEC might help by bludgeoning themself into a 2 loss conference!

A 2 loss team getting the nod over a 1 loss ND team will be a blatant messege of bias.