People quickly forget that Notre Dame finished #62 in the country in scoring defense at 27.8 ppg. However, despite stiffer competition after the firing of BVG, ND interim defensive staff managed to cut 2.7 ppg off the scoring defense over the final 8 games. Excluding the the games coached by BVG, ND was 45th in the nation in scoring defense (the one true number that matters) at 25ppg...
Now is 45th in the nation (45ppg) in scoring defense anything to write home about? No. But consider these 3 major factors...
1. Their coordinator was fired 4 games into the season and much of the defensive gameplan that was practiced throughout camp was scrapped. Even changednit's front significantly, as well as it's personnel.
2. An already thin backend of their defense lost their starting senior FS at the conclusion of fall camp. Their expected starter at field corner did not recover as had been expected from an arm injury. His backup was suspended in an altercation with police the same weekend Redfield was dismissed and then the nickel back, who was pressed out to corner because of injuries, tears his achilles in game 2 vs Nevada... Again, a unit already thin on experience, was ravaged by injuries.
3. With the rash of injuries ND faced in their secondary, they often started 4 true freshman this season. In total, freshmen, Julian Love, Donte Vaugn, Troy Pride, Jalen Elliot and Devin Studstill made ND the youngest, most inexperienced secondary in the country, on a team that struggled with pass rush, because the 3 guys they hoped would provide that, we're 3 more true friggen freshmen in Daelin Hayes, Julian Okwara and Khalid Kareem. Those 8 freshmenn were asked to play a criminal amount of defensive snaps as freshman in 2016. Still managing to finish 45th in the nation in scoring defense once a responsible defensive scheme was implemented (4 games into the season), isn't terrible at all.
People are angry. I get that. They have a right to be. Hell I'm angry too. But I think there is more talent for Elko to work with in place than people are crediting ND for having. 8 of them were true freshmen, thrown into the fire, and they simply weren't ready (as most freshman aren't).
This is my prediction...
ND will hire a strength coach who will provide some energy in S&C this off season. Those freshman will be much more physically ready s sophomores. Will they be at full potential? No. That takes time. But they'learned be better. Especially the young DL who were often hung out they dry. Secondly, Elko is a much better defensive mind they on an anyone ND had on staff in 2016 and his defense, even ithough first year, will be much improved scheme wise from what we've seen ND field under Diaco. Furthermore, I think his scheme is a great fit for ND's personnell. I've been screaming for ND to move Tranquil to SAM because he cant flip his hips and run, but his strength is coming downhill. Even better, we no longer have a SAM, instead we have a hybrid DB / LB "Rover" which suits Tranquil's skill set perfectly, as it does Spencer Perry's and D.J. Morgan's, who are both those 6'2, 220lb hybrid types. I'd love to see Justin Brent and Chase Claypool move to that position as well (although I think that's a pipe dream). On top of that, we now have a 1-gap front, which focuses on pentration, rather than gap control. Given the players we have up front, all I can say is thank freaking God.
So here it is. I think ND surrenders between 22-23ppg next year, a small bump from where they were this year, but good enough to play top 30 defense in year 1 under Elko. I think the return of Nick Watkins will help, and my fingers are crossed that Shaun Crawford makes a full recovery as well. Even if it's only slight improvemrnt, I think all 8 of the freshman who saw meaningful minutes are a little bit better, as are the guys who really saw their first full season's of action as key contributors... Asmar Bilal, Nyles Morgan, Drue Tranquil, Te'Von Coney, Greer Martini and Jay Hayes. We often forget that those guys were all first time major contributors on top of the 8 true freshman last year. The defense was simply damn inexperienced last year and I think they'll come into the season with more confidence this year, under much better leadership and coaching (Elko personally coaching safeties and allowing Lyght to focus on the CB's) will be good. We need development along the DL of course, but there is no magical cure there. Just need work and development.
We lose 4 starters from last year's group in Isaac Rochell, Jarron Jones, James Onwualu and Cole Luke. Definitely some of our more capable players, but only Jones' production I see as irreplaceable this year, but I do think the collective experience gained last year, combined with a new (much more sound) scheme will lead to net gains.
Here is my projected defense, one that I think will see solid improvement from this year. Earth shattering defense? No. But defense that ND can win a lot of games with if the offense gets its act together and plays like it's capable of playing? Yes.
SDE: Jay Hayes
2. Khalid Karem
NG: Daniel Cage
2. Darnell Ewell
DT: Jerry Tillery
2. Jonathan Bonner
WDE: Daelin Hayes
2. Andrew Trumbetti / Julian Okwara
Will: Te'Von Coney
2. Asmar Bilal
Mike: Nyles Morgan
2. Greer Martini
Rover: Drue Tranquil
2. Spencer Perry
CB: Nick Watkins
2. Troy Pride
FS: Devin Studstill
2. Paulson Adebo
SS: Jalen Elliot
2. Nico Fertitta
CB: Donte Vaughn
2. Julian Love
NB: Shaun Crawford**
2. Julian Love
That's my prediction. Willing to make a friendly wager with anyone out there that is in the camp that ND isnt going to play solid defense next season.
