Point differential is a better indicator of a team's performance than their actual win-loss record. It takes into account all points scored by Notre Dame minus the amount of points they gave up vs every opponent on their schedule ... thus expanding the sample size of the team's performance and giving us a better idea of just how well they performed holistically.
This idea really touches on the point that Kelly made in a recent press conference. Paraphrasing: "In my 25+ years of coaching I've never had this many 1 possession games that I ended up on the losing side of". And based on the overall point differential of the 2016 team up to this point, he makes a valid observation. His 2016 team, despite their 4-7 record, have a point differential that is on par with his 2014 & 2013 squads that went 8-5 & 9-4 respectively.
Looked at in this way, a team's point differential can show how much 'luck' played a factor into their overall record. Sometimes it's extremely good luck (like Willingham's 2002 season ... or really bad luck like Kelly's 2011 season or to a lesser extent this 2016 season). Had ND had a few more high leverage/clutch situations go there way in 2016 .. they very likely would have at least 2 more wins right now.
Here is NDs point differential over the last 15 seasons ... these seasons correspond with the Willingham/Weis/Brian Kelly eras at Notre Dame:
Year: Point Differential (Actual Record)
2016: +55 (4-7) - represents 11 games ... there's still a game left vs USC as a 17+ point underdog that can have a sizable impact on NDs final point differential.
2015: +132 (10-3)
2014: +48 (8-5)
2013: +63 (9-4)
2012: +169 (12-1)
2011: +111 (8-5)
2010: +98 (8-5)
(The Brian Kelly Era)
This confirms what I thought regarding those first two seasons under Brian Kelly. Especially that 2011 team. Remember all of those backbreaking red zone turnovers despite the team marching up and down the field? That was a really good football team despite their 8-5 record.
Those first 3 seasons under Brian Kelly were by far the best Notre Dame football we've seen in the last 15 years.
Another item worth pointing out is that after 3 of NDs best seasons in the last 15 years or so (2010, 2011, 2012) the program has been consistently merely 'above average' with 3 of BKs worst seasons coming in the last 4 years. I think this has a lot to do with recruiting ... as those 2010, 2011, 2012 seasons came off the back of Charlie Weis' exceptional trio of recruiting classes in 2006/2007/2008 -- a level of consistent elite recruiting Brian Kelly has never been able to match.
Year: Point Differential (Actual Record)
2009: +50 (6-6)
2008: +33 (7-6)
2007: -148 (3-9)
2006: +93 (10-3)
2005: +149 (9-3)
(The Charlie Weis Era)
It's interesting that in 4 of Kelly's 7 years at Notre Dame, his team's have had a higher point differential than Weis' 2006 BCS campaign. In my opinion, there's no larger indicator as to the difference of quality between these two coaches. Kelly is on another level.
Year: Point Differential (Actual Record)
2004: 0 (6-5)
2003: -72 (5-7)
2002: +73 (10-3)
(The Ty Willingham Era)
Dumpster fire. ND should never have a point differential below zero .. in 2 of 3 Willingham seasons there were nearly 2 instances of them. Also, his 2002 season was extremely lucky.
The full picture:
Year: Point Differential (Actual Record)
2016: +55 (4-7)
2015: +132 (10-3)
2014: +48 (8-5)
2013: +63 (9-4)
2012: +169 (12-1)
2011: +111 (8-5)
2010: +98 (8-5)
----
2009: +50 (6-6)
2008: +33 (7-6)
2007: -148 (3-9)
2006: +93 (10-3)
2005: +149 (9-3)
----
2004: 0 (6-6)
2003: -72 (5-7)
2002: +73 (10-3)
This idea really touches on the point that Kelly made in a recent press conference. Paraphrasing: "In my 25+ years of coaching I've never had this many 1 possession games that I ended up on the losing side of". And based on the overall point differential of the 2016 team up to this point, he makes a valid observation. His 2016 team, despite their 4-7 record, have a point differential that is on par with his 2014 & 2013 squads that went 8-5 & 9-4 respectively.
Looked at in this way, a team's point differential can show how much 'luck' played a factor into their overall record. Sometimes it's extremely good luck (like Willingham's 2002 season ... or really bad luck like Kelly's 2011 season or to a lesser extent this 2016 season). Had ND had a few more high leverage/clutch situations go there way in 2016 .. they very likely would have at least 2 more wins right now.
Here is NDs point differential over the last 15 seasons ... these seasons correspond with the Willingham/Weis/Brian Kelly eras at Notre Dame:
Year: Point Differential (Actual Record)
2016: +55 (4-7) - represents 11 games ... there's still a game left vs USC as a 17+ point underdog that can have a sizable impact on NDs final point differential.
2015: +132 (10-3)
2014: +48 (8-5)
2013: +63 (9-4)
2012: +169 (12-1)
2011: +111 (8-5)
2010: +98 (8-5)
(The Brian Kelly Era)
This confirms what I thought regarding those first two seasons under Brian Kelly. Especially that 2011 team. Remember all of those backbreaking red zone turnovers despite the team marching up and down the field? That was a really good football team despite their 8-5 record.
Those first 3 seasons under Brian Kelly were by far the best Notre Dame football we've seen in the last 15 years.
Another item worth pointing out is that after 3 of NDs best seasons in the last 15 years or so (2010, 2011, 2012) the program has been consistently merely 'above average' with 3 of BKs worst seasons coming in the last 4 years. I think this has a lot to do with recruiting ... as those 2010, 2011, 2012 seasons came off the back of Charlie Weis' exceptional trio of recruiting classes in 2006/2007/2008 -- a level of consistent elite recruiting Brian Kelly has never been able to match.
Year: Point Differential (Actual Record)
2009: +50 (6-6)
2008: +33 (7-6)
2007: -148 (3-9)
2006: +93 (10-3)
2005: +149 (9-3)
(The Charlie Weis Era)
It's interesting that in 4 of Kelly's 7 years at Notre Dame, his team's have had a higher point differential than Weis' 2006 BCS campaign. In my opinion, there's no larger indicator as to the difference of quality between these two coaches. Kelly is on another level.
Year: Point Differential (Actual Record)
2004: 0 (6-5)
2003: -72 (5-7)
2002: +73 (10-3)
(The Ty Willingham Era)
Dumpster fire. ND should never have a point differential below zero .. in 2 of 3 Willingham seasons there were nearly 2 instances of them. Also, his 2002 season was extremely lucky.
The full picture:
Year: Point Differential (Actual Record)
2016: +55 (4-7)
2015: +132 (10-3)
2014: +48 (8-5)
2013: +63 (9-4)
2012: +169 (12-1)
2011: +111 (8-5)
2010: +98 (8-5)
----
2009: +50 (6-6)
2008: +33 (7-6)
2007: -148 (3-9)
2006: +93 (10-3)
2005: +149 (9-3)
----
2004: 0 (6-6)
2003: -72 (5-7)
2002: +73 (10-3)
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