Twelve teams make the New Year's 6 bowl games (trust me on this, I majored in math). Notre Dame is likely to need to end the season ranked within the top 10 to make it in. The reason is that one spot is reserved for a G5 champion that is not likely to be ranked in the top 12 (though Air Force could conceivably end up there) and one Orange Bowl slot must go to an ACC team, which is not likely to be ranked in the top 12 if Florida State makes the playoff.
Notre Dame is currently ranked 14th. The path to the top 10 would require:
1) The Irish need to win out (obviously)
2) Need to jump over at least four teams, knowing that ND does not play any ranked teams where a win could jump the Irish over anybody who doesn't lose.
These teams almost certainly drop below ND with one more loss. Remaining ranked opponents listed.
13 Utah - vs 8 Oregon on 10/28, at 5 Washington on 11/11, PAC-12 Championship on 12/2 if they win both of those
12 Mississippi - at 1 Georgia on 11/11
11 Oregon State - vs 5 Washington on 11/18, at 8 Oregon on 11/25, PAC-12 Championship on 12/2 if they win both of those
These teams might drop below ND with one more loss but it might take 2 losses:
10 Penn State - vs 2 Michigan on 11/11
9 Alabama - vs 15 LSU on 11/4, SEC Championship on 12/2 if they win that
8 Oregon - at 13 Utah on 10/28, vs 24 USC on 11/11, vs 11 Oregon St on 11/25, PAC-12 Championship on 12/2 if they win all of those
7 Texas - no ranked opponents except Big 12 Championship on 12/2 if they don't lose to an unranked team
The key games in all of this are Mississippi/Georgia and Penn State/Michigan. An upset in either of these games makes it nearly impossible for the Irish to crack the top 10.
The PAC-12 should sort itself out with at least two out of Oregon, Utah and Oregon State ending up with 2+ losses.
***All rankings are AP rankings as there are no playoff rankings yet***
Notre Dame is currently ranked 14th. The path to the top 10 would require:
1) The Irish need to win out (obviously)
2) Need to jump over at least four teams, knowing that ND does not play any ranked teams where a win could jump the Irish over anybody who doesn't lose.
These teams almost certainly drop below ND with one more loss. Remaining ranked opponents listed.
13 Utah - vs 8 Oregon on 10/28, at 5 Washington on 11/11, PAC-12 Championship on 12/2 if they win both of those
12 Mississippi - at 1 Georgia on 11/11
11 Oregon State - vs 5 Washington on 11/18, at 8 Oregon on 11/25, PAC-12 Championship on 12/2 if they win both of those
These teams might drop below ND with one more loss but it might take 2 losses:
10 Penn State - vs 2 Michigan on 11/11
9 Alabama - vs 15 LSU on 11/4, SEC Championship on 12/2 if they win that
8 Oregon - at 13 Utah on 10/28, vs 24 USC on 11/11, vs 11 Oregon St on 11/25, PAC-12 Championship on 12/2 if they win all of those
7 Texas - no ranked opponents except Big 12 Championship on 12/2 if they don't lose to an unranked team
The key games in all of this are Mississippi/Georgia and Penn State/Michigan. An upset in either of these games makes it nearly impossible for the Irish to crack the top 10.
The PAC-12 should sort itself out with at least two out of Oregon, Utah and Oregon State ending up with 2+ losses.
***All rankings are AP rankings as there are no playoff rankings yet***
