Note: The S&P+ ranking and projection system has been changed to "SP+" for simplification reasons and it makes up one-half of the F/+ formula cited here frequently.
Anyway, the 2020 SP+ projections will be released sometime next week (here was last year's thread 2019 projections) and here's the criteria that goes into the projections (as explained by the author of the system himself):
The preseason SP+ projections are a simple mix of three factors: recent history, returning production, and recruiting. To come up with 130-team projections for all of FBS, I create projected ratings based on each factor. Here’s how the process works:
For recruiting, I create a rating based on these weighted four-year recruiting rankings. The weighting (67 percent this year’s class, 15 percent last year’s, 15 percent the year before that, three percent the year before that) is based on what makes the ratings most predictive.
For returning production, I take each team’s returning offensive and defensive production (which are on different scales) and apply projected changes to last year’s ratings. The ranking you see below is not where they rank in returning production but where they would rank after the projected changes are applied to last year’s SP+ averages. This piece makes up a vast majority of the overall SP+ projections.
For recent history, I’ve found that getting a little weird predicts pretty well. This number isn’t a strict five-year average — last year’s ratings already carry heavy weight from the returning production piece. Instead, what you see below is a projection based solely off of seasons two to five years ago. Recent history doesn’t carry much weight in the projections, but it serves as a reflection of overall program health. We overreact to one year’s performance sometimes.
There isn't a better way to get an objective view of how all 130 programs are stacking up to each other.
Where ND sits in these 'projections' will give us a REALLY good idea of how well the program is functioning over the last several years relative to all other programs. Last year ND was projected #12 in 2019 and finished #12 but I wouldn't get too caught up in where the projection system has Notre Dame finishing. These systems are best used as a comprehensive way to compare programs more than pinpoint precisely where they will finish.
It's also a good way to judge the quality of opponents on the schedule .. very curious to see where a program like Wisconsin is projected along with the rest of the opponents on the schedule.
Anyway, the 2020 SP+ projections will be released sometime next week (here was last year's thread 2019 projections) and here's the criteria that goes into the projections (as explained by the author of the system himself):
The preseason SP+ projections are a simple mix of three factors: recent history, returning production, and recruiting. To come up with 130-team projections for all of FBS, I create projected ratings based on each factor. Here’s how the process works:
For recruiting, I create a rating based on these weighted four-year recruiting rankings. The weighting (67 percent this year’s class, 15 percent last year’s, 15 percent the year before that, three percent the year before that) is based on what makes the ratings most predictive.
For returning production, I take each team’s returning offensive and defensive production (which are on different scales) and apply projected changes to last year’s ratings. The ranking you see below is not where they rank in returning production but where they would rank after the projected changes are applied to last year’s SP+ averages. This piece makes up a vast majority of the overall SP+ projections.
For recent history, I’ve found that getting a little weird predicts pretty well. This number isn’t a strict five-year average — last year’s ratings already carry heavy weight from the returning production piece. Instead, what you see below is a projection based solely off of seasons two to five years ago. Recent history doesn’t carry much weight in the projections, but it serves as a reflection of overall program health. We overreact to one year’s performance sometimes.
There isn't a better way to get an objective view of how all 130 programs are stacking up to each other.
Where ND sits in these 'projections' will give us a REALLY good idea of how well the program is functioning over the last several years relative to all other programs. Last year ND was projected #12 in 2019 and finished #12 but I wouldn't get too caught up in where the projection system has Notre Dame finishing. These systems are best used as a comprehensive way to compare programs more than pinpoint precisely where they will finish.
It's also a good way to judge the quality of opponents on the schedule .. very curious to see where a program like Wisconsin is projected along with the rest of the opponents on the schedule.
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