lol it’s BE
“Luck” is qualitative at the very least, based on no fact….judgment !
No. "Luck" are stats with really low levels of correlation/low levels of predictability from game to game. "Skill" are stats that are very predictive and have high levels of correlation from game to game.
The system deemphasize luck (high variance events) and puts a lot of weight on data that is predictive. Why? Because predictive data/high correlative data means the data is a reflection of skill.
What data is predictive? How a team performs on offense or on defense from play to play. Or how efficiently teams move the ball and finish their drives and how well they prevent the other team from doing those same things.
What data is not predictive? Unforced turnovers. Unforced penalties. Special Teams turnovers & scores (among others). Despite these high variable events having MAJOR IMPACT on the final score of the game, they are very unpredictable/have very low levels of correlation.
The F+ system is weeding all this noise out of the data (low predictability events) and HONING IN on the signal (the best predictive stats in the sport) and ranking teams based on their ability to achieve these stats
The teams that are ranked really high in F+ are the teams that are really good at producing positive high correlative stats.
