I've been tooling around on ESPN's Playoff Predictor. It's based on FPI, so take the numbers for whatever you think of that system. I was struck by how favorable it is toward teams with difficult schedules. Texas and USC have a greater chance to make the playoff than I would have expected, while Georgia and Michigan are lower. I think there's some truth to the idea that Texas, USC, and other teams with tough schedules have a mulligan in their pocket while the teams with weaker schedules probably need to go undefeated. Here are the odds of making the playoff for the 4 teams I mentioned based on a few different scenarios:
USC (12-1 with loss to ND): 93%
USC (12-1 with loss in conference title game): 81%
Texas (12-1 with regular season loss to Oklahoma): 95%
Texas (12-1 with loss in conference title game): 81%
UGA (11-1 with loss to Tennessee): 17%
UGA (12-1 with loss in conference title game): 53%
UM (11-1 with loss to PSU or OSU): 26%
UM (12-1 with loss in conference title game): 52%
USC (12-1 with loss to ND): 93%
USC (12-1 with loss in conference title game): 81%
Texas (12-1 with regular season loss to Oklahoma): 95%
Texas (12-1 with loss in conference title game): 81%
UGA (11-1 with loss to Tennessee): 17%
UGA (12-1 with loss in conference title game): 53%
UM (11-1 with loss to PSU or OSU): 26%
UM (12-1 with loss in conference title game): 52%