If Frank Solich, Phil Fulmer and Les Miles were not sufficient reason, let's look at how Brian Kelly's chatboard replacements are doing.
1. Brian Kelly 2.0: 5-1 With staff adjustments 2.0 is looking like the best choice in replace BK 1.0.
2. Justin Fuentes: 4-1 Still looks like a promising coach, but team has not been nearly as impressive as Kelly's. We'd have probably been ok with this hire, but there is nothing to suggest yet he's going to be a superstar. He beats teams he should beat and loses to teams he should lose to.
3. Matt Ruhle: 0-5 This was probably the board favorite for replacing Kelly. He was was high on my list. Obviously looking very not ready for prime time once he hit a higher level of competition.
4. DJ Durkin: 3-2 The ultimate pedigree coach. It looked good after an opening season victory to Texas, but blowouts to UCF and Ohio State was a reality check. There is still no indication this is the next Urban Meyer or Jim Harbaugh (and Jim Harbaugh doesn't look like the next Jim Harbaugh either.)
5. Mark Dantonio - 4-1: He's back to beating Michigan and losing to Notre Dame. His defense is back to looking top notch, but his offense looks like it always does. Pedestrian. Good coach, but slight downgrade.
6. Chuck Martin 2-4: I thought he was the real deal. I was wrong. On year four you have to start better than 2-4. Losing to 0-5 Bowling Green is inexplicable. Martin is off officially off my list of guys likely to succeed Brian Kelly.
7. PJ Fleck: 3-2 The wife cheating savior of Notre Dame football is 0-2 against the Big Ten's cellar dwellers. PJ you are not in the MAC anymore.
8. Mike Macintyre 3-3: His defensive coordinator left him and so did his success. He's getting lit up on defense, and has lost to every good team he's played.
9. Dan Mullen 3-2: Mullen was high on my list. I thought he just needed a better defensive coordinator. He got one and still got pummeled by the two good teams he's played so far. I am not so high on Mullen anymore. He's not nearly as accomplished as Kelly.
10. Jeff Brohm 3-2: This guy was not any many people's list, but he was on mine, and might be my number one guy to replace Kelly if we had to do it today. He's made Purdue a tough football team even though they don't have any big wins to show for it now. They clearly have a different level of competitiveness which is more than most the guys on this list can say.
So six months after the mass calls for firing, out of the ten guys who were realistic replacements for Kelly there are maybe one or two guys on this list that anybody would even consider arguing are better than Kelly six months later. So if you have a coach who wins a lot (like only 2 losing seasons in 27), there is about an 80% chance you'll go backward by firing him, and it's probably better to shake up the staff than fire the coach. I argued last year that Kelly should not be fired, not because he did not deserve it, but because there was no clear replacement who was better. A year later, Swarbrick is looking pretty smart. Coach replacement is a crap shoot, and last year was a complete crapshoot. You have to hope that when succession does come, you have a clear front runner unlike last year's cast of "flavors of the day."
1. Brian Kelly 2.0: 5-1 With staff adjustments 2.0 is looking like the best choice in replace BK 1.0.
2. Justin Fuentes: 4-1 Still looks like a promising coach, but team has not been nearly as impressive as Kelly's. We'd have probably been ok with this hire, but there is nothing to suggest yet he's going to be a superstar. He beats teams he should beat and loses to teams he should lose to.
3. Matt Ruhle: 0-5 This was probably the board favorite for replacing Kelly. He was was high on my list. Obviously looking very not ready for prime time once he hit a higher level of competition.
4. DJ Durkin: 3-2 The ultimate pedigree coach. It looked good after an opening season victory to Texas, but blowouts to UCF and Ohio State was a reality check. There is still no indication this is the next Urban Meyer or Jim Harbaugh (and Jim Harbaugh doesn't look like the next Jim Harbaugh either.)
5. Mark Dantonio - 4-1: He's back to beating Michigan and losing to Notre Dame. His defense is back to looking top notch, but his offense looks like it always does. Pedestrian. Good coach, but slight downgrade.
6. Chuck Martin 2-4: I thought he was the real deal. I was wrong. On year four you have to start better than 2-4. Losing to 0-5 Bowling Green is inexplicable. Martin is off officially off my list of guys likely to succeed Brian Kelly.
7. PJ Fleck: 3-2 The wife cheating savior of Notre Dame football is 0-2 against the Big Ten's cellar dwellers. PJ you are not in the MAC anymore.
8. Mike Macintyre 3-3: His defensive coordinator left him and so did his success. He's getting lit up on defense, and has lost to every good team he's played.
9. Dan Mullen 3-2: Mullen was high on my list. I thought he just needed a better defensive coordinator. He got one and still got pummeled by the two good teams he's played so far. I am not so high on Mullen anymore. He's not nearly as accomplished as Kelly.
10. Jeff Brohm 3-2: This guy was not any many people's list, but he was on mine, and might be my number one guy to replace Kelly if we had to do it today. He's made Purdue a tough football team even though they don't have any big wins to show for it now. They clearly have a different level of competitiveness which is more than most the guys on this list can say.
So six months after the mass calls for firing, out of the ten guys who were realistic replacements for Kelly there are maybe one or two guys on this list that anybody would even consider arguing are better than Kelly six months later. So if you have a coach who wins a lot (like only 2 losing seasons in 27), there is about an 80% chance you'll go backward by firing him, and it's probably better to shake up the staff than fire the coach. I argued last year that Kelly should not be fired, not because he did not deserve it, but because there was no clear replacement who was better. A year later, Swarbrick is looking pretty smart. Coach replacement is a crap shoot, and last year was a complete crapshoot. You have to hope that when succession does come, you have a clear front runner unlike last year's cast of "flavors of the day."
