Which team is the most likely to
- Thread starter Patrirish
- Start date
Hard to say until all the games are over. I'll take a stab based on CURRENT results. Let's start by saying you have to take undefeated teams from Power 5.
Of the current 1 loss teams, I tip it to Texas. Texas decisively beat a very good Alabama who beat Georgia. Ohio State can argue it lost close to undefeated #1 Michigan as of this hour...but I think Texas had better wins.
SEC is out if current things stand. Too many permutations if Michigan AND/OR FSU lose. That would be a mess...maybe weight conference champions: Alabama, Michigan, FSU + undefeated WA?
Of course some will argue quality as a tie breaker. SEC honks are already arguing Alabama and Georgia of all 1 loss teams, although some admit Texas before either.
Of the current 1 loss teams, I tip it to Texas. Texas decisively beat a very good Alabama who beat Georgia. Ohio State can argue it lost close to undefeated #1 Michigan as of this hour...but I think Texas had better wins.
SEC is out if current things stand. Too many permutations if Michigan AND/OR FSU lose. That would be a mess...maybe weight conference champions: Alabama, Michigan, FSU + undefeated WA?
Of course some will argue quality as a tie breaker. SEC honks are already arguing Alabama and Georgia of all 1 loss teams, although some admit Texas before either.
if Alabama doesn't make it then Georgia shouldn't make it either. Alabama lost early on Georgia lost essentially a home game at the end to Alabama. Alabama should make it before Georgia gets in
I would be SHOCKED.
I get common sense and the eye test, as clearly FSU is not a top 4, even they had their starting QB.
But the guidance is clear about superior records and being a conference champion of a Power 5...which I think can only be trumped by really extreme strengths of schedule, which I don't think is the case.
The also factor in injuries the said. The are not a top 4 team without Travis. They will use that if they don't dominate tonight
I didn't see anything in the guidance that I read on Wiki about weighting any injuries.
Mind you, the committee can basically vote as it pleases...the rules and analytics are just guides.
This situation has more clarity. I put a premium on head to head. Hence Texas over Alabama, which was a solid victory. Oklahoma was not a bad loss for Texas either to counter this.
Sure, Alabama beat Georgia...and is conference champion, as is Texas.
Ohio State as a 1 loss team has no conference championship.
Again, this scenario to me seems clear.
If they blow out UL you can’t leave FSU out. But I don’t think they will. They may lose.
Right now id take
Michigan
Bama
Washington
Georgia
I’d leave TX out no matter what and put FSU in place of GA if they beat up UL.
Right now id take
Michigan
Bama
Washington
Georgia
I’d leave TX out no matter what and put FSU in place of GA if they beat up UL.
It’s unfortunate, but if you look at the 4 best right now, I think it’s my list. Bama didnt even know who their QB was and their OL improved a lot. If I am non biased committee member and my job is pick the 4 best right now no matter what, I put Bama and GA in and leave TX out. But that doesn’t mean I’m right.
You’re clueless !
Oklahoma isn’t a one loss team
Oklahoma lost to Kansas and Oklahoma State
You have to look at a whole body of work. All season. Within that you pick the best teams...not just the best team of the last week.
They can talk about anything, but I've not found anything in the selection guidance.
It doesn't make sense to have this. It could get complicated in terms of depth, who is injured, and what position.
Pat dominating Jerry T, never thought I’d see the day!
Washington
Michigan
Texas
Alabama
In that order.
Washington
Michigan
Texas
Alabama
In that order.
BTW: FSU is playing horrible right now. I agree no way could it hang in the playoffs...but rules are rules.
Sentiment would be ok if workable and consistent. But it's not. I remember sentiment costing ND a NC in 1993 because they wanted to give it to Bobby Bowden.
Finally, yes, sentiment is the tie breaker if close enough. But a 1 loss vs 0 loss is in this case not close enough, at least in my opinion.
Nobody here knows of course, so we will learn shortly. Personally FSU absolutely should get in. They’ll have their #2 QB back, and they simply earned it by going undefeated and winning their championship imo.
Based on playoff committee voting history (the undefeated P5 champs all get in):
LOCKS
1. Michigan
2. Washington
3. Florida State
4. Texas vs Alabama
Texas probably in due to head to head match up victory.
Michigan would absolutely love this scenario as it would take the two most talented (and probably most difficult opponents) out of the playoff entirely (Alabama and Georgia) and greatly increase Michigan's odds of winning a national title this season.
LOCKS
1. Michigan
2. Washington
3. Florida State
4. Texas vs Alabama
Texas probably in due to head to head match up victory.
Michigan would absolutely love this scenario as it would take the two most talented (and probably most difficult opponents) out of the playoff entirely (Alabama and Georgia) and greatly increase Michigan's odds of winning a national title this season.
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Disagree completely.
Who has Oklahoma beat that makes that loss decent by Texas?
What about double OT versus KState and one score wins against below .500 Houston and TCU?
Alabama beat Ole Miss, LSU and Georgia. All three teams nobody wants to play. All three 10 win teams. Alabama clearly has the best win in college football this year. Their only loss was the 2nd game breaking in a new qb and OC.
I think the biggest question is Georgia or TX/FSU. Alabama gets the 3rd seed IMO.
Back when the playoff system started the committee said they would be ALL about placing the 4 best teams in the country in the playoff and win-loss record wouldn't have the kind of weight it did under the traditional AP poll format, but the playoff committee basically turns into the AP Poll every season after their initial rankings, where if a team wins they stand pat or move up in playoff ranking, and if a team loses they move down in playoff ranking.
Texas beat Alabama by double digits in Tuscaloosa.. Why play the regular season if it doesn’t matter? Because the committee thinks they look better? Texas PROVED it on the field, no guessing needed. Oh and you forgot to mention Bama squeeking by USF, Arkansas, AM, Auburn.
Texas beat Alabama at Alabama by 10. In their building. They should be ranked ahead. Head to head is most important
LSU has 9 wins, not 10. Who has LSU or Ole Miss beat that makes them quality wins? I saw LSU get boat raced vs FSU
No one is afraid of Ole Miss or LSU.
The 4 best teams in the country IMO:
1. Michigan
2. Alabama (interchangeable w/ Georgia)
3. Georgia
4. OSU
the rest of the top 10:
5. Texas
6. Penn State
7. Florida State
8. Washington (interchangeable w/ Oregon)
9. Oregon
10. LSU
1. Michigan
2. Alabama (interchangeable w/ Georgia)
3. Georgia
4. OSU
the rest of the top 10:
5. Texas
6. Penn State
7. Florida State
8. Washington (interchangeable w/ Oregon)
9. Oregon
10. LSU
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I weight a decisive head to head win by Texas and and being conference champions higher than insignificant schedule differences. On that, Ole Miss and LSU are some gauntlet, not right now. Nor does Alabama clearly have the best win.
BTW: Oklahoma State beat Oklahoma but Texas beat Oklahoma State but Oklahoma beat Texas. Texas beat Alabama but Alabama beat Georgia. We can argue the transitive property to futility here.
Back to full circle: head to head weighs heavily. ND got shafted in 1993 in favor of FSU on similar logic you present.
We covered this.
The current best aren't over the course of a season...which must factor in who gets into a limited playoff. The guidance has to be followed, with eye test based sentiment breaking reasonable ties in other factors.
It is not reasonable to promote Alabama, Georgia, and Ohio State over 0 loss conference champion Washington, and FSU as well as 1 a loss conference champion Texas that decisively beat Alabama away.
BTW: I agree with your current top 4 power ranking...but you have to rank across the whole season. Football is imperfect given the current setup in getting the legitimate top 4. A 12 team playoff fixes this.
I think he means power ranking vs rules and guidance committee based ranking.
Problem is resolved next season. The legitimate top 6 if not top 10 will get in.
They have the #3 talent in the country, a #4 F+ ranking, and beat everybody on their schedule except for the number 1 team in the country in a rivalry game.
This. I don’t want Michigan winning a title, and a three teams that are most likely to beat them are Georgia, Alabama, and probably also Ohio State. Florida State or Texas aren’t going to do anything to Michigan.
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