Vegas

[huff60]

There’s been a lot of chatter on the line , as always . And it’s fun. But it’s important to keep in mind , contrary to popular belief, that when Vegas sets the line it’s not necessarily because they think that will be the margin of victory. It’s because they want to entice an equal number of bettors above and below the line.
Hence, the vig.

 

[sluggo69]

here we go again

 

[Patrirish]

There’s been a lot of chatter on the line , as always . And it’s fun. But it’s important to keep in mind , contrary to popular belief, that when Vegas sets the line it’s not necessarily because they think that will be the margin of victory. It’s because they want to entice an equal number of bettors above and below the line.
Hence, the vig.

You’re wrong and your confusing a desired outcome with reality.

So tell us, How does Vegas entice an equal dollar amount above and below the line ?

When the L.A. Rams are playing the N.Y. Giants how do they accomplish that ?

When USC is playing ND how do they accomplish that ?

 

[Patrirish]

here we go again

👍

 

[Fightingirish595]

Sigh... No. Veags sets the line based on what they think the line should be based on their model.

The line is then corrected. Most books are rec and dont take sharp action and move based on what goes on at circa ,bookmaker and pinny.

Eseentailly, the real lines makers are the Sharp originators

 

[Fightingirish595]

Sigh... No. Veags sets the line based on what they think the line should be based on their model.

The line is then corrected. Most books are rec and dont take sharp action and move based on what goes on at circa ,bookmaker and pinny.

Eseentailly, the real lines makers are the Sharp originators

How Lines Are Set: An Oddsmakers Perspective | Circa Las Vegas

The opening line can be a term that is thrown around pretty loosely in sports betting. Read about how the line is set from an oddsmaker from Circa | Sports.

www.circalasvegas.com

 

[Fightingirish595]

I will aslo add that based on the betting market right now, Notre dame has about 70-75percent chance to win.

But theres still not a ton of liquidity in the market. But if the MLs are are where they are now at close, that would imply the above percentage assuming an efficient market (which it is)

 

[Patrirish]

How Lines Are Set: An Oddsmakers Perspective | Circa Las Vegas

The opening line can be a term that is thrown around pretty loosely in sports betting. Read about how the line is set from an oddsmaker from Circa | Sports.

www.circalasvegas.com

The article is silent on how the opening line is arrived at, its far more complicated than alluded to.

 

[Fightingirish595]

The article is silent on how the opening line is arrived at, its far more complicated than alluded to.

A sharp book like circa is posting what they think the number should be. Ideally that number will be the most efficient. Not always the case. New information comes in. Injuries, sharp bets, etc. that information helps shape the line. By kickoff it’s extremely efficient.

 

[Patrirish]

A sharp book like circa is posting what they think the number should be. Ideally that number will be the most efficient. Not always the case. New information comes in. Injuries, sharp bets, etc. that information helps shape the line. By kickoff it’s extremely efficient.

You’re missing the point, they don’t hold their finger up in the air in order to determine which way the wind is blowing, there’s a complex formula, made easier today with computer algorithms, that determines what the lines will be.

 

[Fightingirish595]

You’re missing the point, they don’t hold their finger up in the air in order to determine which way the wind is blowing, there’s a complex formula, made easier today with computer algorithms, that determines what the lines will be.

I essentially said that in my first post. “The line is set based on their model”

 

[Patrirish]

I missed ”model”

Yes, it’s a scientific process not one based upon intuition.

 

[NDinNJ]

And here I thought the best handicapper ever, Ace Rothstein was the guy that set the lines. 😜

 

[Patrirish]

And here I thought the best handicapper ever, Ace Rothstein was the guy that set the lines. 😜

View embedded media

That’s my mentor, Frank Rosenthal !

 

[Holycrossover3]

Sigh... No. Veags sets the line based on what they think the line should be based on their model.

The line is then corrected. Most books are rec and dont take sharp action and move based on what goes on at circa ,bookmaker and pinny.

Eseentailly, the real lines makers are the Sharp originators

The only way to make money in Vegas is to be on the right side of a fresh line