ummm when 4-5 teams all finish as #8; then there is a methodology flaw.
Why?
It seems perfectly likely that several teams are recruiting on about the same level...a near certainty in fact
ummm when 4-5 teams all finish as #8; then there is a methodology flaw.
Decker
we may have totally different perspectives regarding the state of recruiting; well, as pertains to the defensive side of the ball. But at least you have enough interest to have looked into the classes and classes of those teams ND is pursuing. I salute you for that, and I hope you will continue to delve intothe implications of recruiting and the relationship to team performances. The differences are subtle but they are the things that separate the true playoff contenders from the second pack.
The top is not locked down and key to the the entry into that group is talent (recruiting), excellent coaching (development) and staying healthy, and of course Luck.
The exchange may have appeared contentious, but I do appreciate your efforts towards recruiting.
(btw: the 3rd ranked 2013 class was just the subject of an article where they revisit the class and re-rank the class and except for Jaylon, Fuller and Robinson the rest of the class was reranked to a lower grade; on 247)
"WOW: you're so incorrect - there is no point to trying to enlighten you"
Thats what normally say to you Pers, and then of course you try to make up when you're made to look foolish as usual.
Decker, your argument was sound and made a lot of sense, I think we recruit enough talent to compete with anyone. There are certain positions that we'll need to hit on for sure, but after the bowl game last year, things are looking up!
It's really not a good policy to read too heavily into star rating before a prospect even starts their final season of high school
do team recruiting rankings matter? you decide.
Champ and preceding 3 yrs. rankings
2014 tOSU (2,4,11)
2013 FSU (6,2,10)
2012 Ala (1,5,1)
2011 Ala (5,1,1)
2010 AU (19,20,7) ... Cam Newton year. (this occurred in 2005 w/ V. Young @ Tex.)
2009 Ala (1,10,11)
2008 UF (1,2,15)
2007 LSU (7,22,2)
2006 UF (15,7,2)
2005 USC* (1,3) Tex (18,14, the V.Y. era)
Rivals was used
---------------------------------
as to offer lists:
the problem there is that too many non committable offers are extended.
and, most obviously the 5* prospect has the better offer list;
and an early commitment mat stiffle offers
Wow. Still being debated. The facts are the facts. Any player rated below a 5.8 or 5.9 is a long shot to be a difference maker. This has been proven based on years of prior recruiting in relation to final ranking and wins-losses. Eifert, etc. were certainly exceptions to this rule, but as a whole, these parameters hold true. With Bama, etc, they have so may highly rated players that they can afford a few busts and get away with it. In this years class, ND can't because everyone is a 3-star, marginal 4 star. Unless Kelly is some kind of genius who is light years ahead of other coaching staffs, it is highly doubtful this class will produce anything but maybe 1 or 2 difference maker. Coupled with his history of poor decision making, why are so many of you willing to just put blind faith into a coach who consistently has under-achieved? One 12-1 season does not make legend. Multiple 8-5 seasons is statistically more significant.
Wait, so now you want to use the team rankings, that you were trying to invalidate earlier in this very thread.
The same team rankings that show that ND is one if the Top10 recruiting trams in CFB over the last 3 years and very clearly recruiting at the same level as teams widely accepted to have the talent needed to compete for championships???
You realize you just backed my point throughout this thread, and totally contradicted yourself...right?
do you follow this board?
I have always discussed team recruiting and the # of elite (5.9> commits) as the way to determine contendion for the playoffs! "you been sick or out of the country?"
I have posted this info previously!
(btw: you used ND's incoming class and that is rediculous as they are not on campus)
the class you should include was ranked 20; and the 3rd ranked class, as noted and re-ranked
is proving to be very very over-rated.
Methodology: you average 3 years - that is where you are wrong - what if a team was rated 123 and 1 ?
That is where your contention is foolish. You concept is ridiculous; not to even bring up that there were 4 teams at your #8!.
FYI : 247 had ND 18,6,12; using your distorted method that comes to 12th
The evidence demands verdict: by you contention ND should have been contending and winning major bowls; not finishing 8-4!
BTW:
IF ND were to win the NC in 2015 the stat would be
2015 ND (20,3,11)
so you can compare that to the prior winners stats and guess at the probablity of this occurance.
It would take a superstar to have a Cam or VY or TE'O type year. Jaylon would be a possibility.
(remember that the 3rd ranked class was ranked with EV, a 5 star, as part of it and he never enrolled; that deletion would significantly alter the #3 ranking; remeber this exercise is to ascertain the potential for ND to contend, so whether it happens to other teams is immaterial. And in that class it did not happen to any team higher ranked than ND)
So Decker
prediction, with 6 choices, who are the 4 playoff teams for 2015:
^ was still reading other sites and information as I went. I use actual information rather than raw emotion.
you win: I understand you cannot understand