Team Recruiting Rankings - ND #26 3.15 Average Star Ranking - Pathetic
- Thread starter Lucky Green
- Start date
Mehh, it's not great but again....you really need to stop using star rankings alone to judge the class.
Not to mention the fact that you want to use Pre-Senior Year star rankings only...just not a smart way to evaluate.
This class will end in the Top10-Top15 range, which is solid but not elite. It could end a little higher (in the Top10) of ND has a really good year
Not to mention the fact that you want to use Pre-Senior Year star rankings only...just not a smart way to evaluate.
This class will end in the Top10-Top15 range, which is solid but not elite. It could end a little higher (in the Top10) of ND has a really good year
Oregon in 2012 signed 21 prospects. Only 10 were 4* players. 9 were 3* and 2 were 2*.
The year before.......twelve 3* kids signed(Mariotta being one of them).
Breathe.
The year before.......twelve 3* kids signed(Mariotta being one of them).
Breathe.
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I will try 1 more time:
regardless of the state of this current class ranking:
Offensively: outstanding
AND contemplate that if ND lands just 2 (DT or DE) key top tier commits the perception of this whole class changes from defensively incomplete (a/c DL) to immediately outstanding.
If ND lands OweB and Hayes; with the current DB's on board and 1 of the other top candidates being recruited; THEN all of a sudden Defense has a top class.
AND Gary is coming in with his Mom and Mom and Wimbush's Mom are good friends; Wimbush is recruiting Gary hard. There is a chance! Just convince him he can handle the academics. (Hopefully Mom does not accept the inevitable job offer from Harbaugh!)
So...the fat Lady has not started to sing yet!
Gary & ND: it is all about the academic stigma; overcome that and there is no way in heck that UM is the choice!
We've got a few players that will move up the rankings... not too worried about it. If we're basing this on potential alone, it's actually a pretty good class.
Really hope you are right. Sense something else has been happening over the last 2, now 3 cycles. Recruits sense the situation with Kelly is not right. The depth of the roster has slowly, but steadily climbed, but attracting top, elite players has been a struggle. People forget, or don't want to give him credit, but Weis could really attract top talent. So don't say it can't be done. Just need right leader. This is a tipping point season and the direction will be learned in the first 4 games. Swarbrick better have a short list ready.
^ regardless what school you are or who your coach is, you damn well better have a short list!
cause the coaches have lists too!
and yea! 4 games in...
cause the coaches have lists too!
and yea! 4 games in...
Weis was a good recruiter. He really sold the @ill out you in the NFL, because I know the NFL" angle. That alone is what brought Clausen here
That said, ND had landed the #11, #11, and #3 classes the last 3 cycles....that's enough talent to win championships....as long as you keep landing it and developing it
Defections hurt every class everywhere, as do players that don't pan out, etc.
But that's totally changing the conversation and is a wholly flawed way to look at things for it's own reasons (basicay only counting defections against ND but assuming everyone else's classes were exactly as advertised...a terrible, and unfair assumption)
The reality is that ND has recruit quite well over the last few seasons and laid down a foundation of talent hats capable of winning at the top levellevel
But that's totally changing the conversation and is a wholly flawed way to look at things for it's own reasons (basicay only counting defections against ND but assuming everyone else's classes were exactly as advertised...a terrible, and unfair assumption)
The reality is that ND has recruit quite well over the last few seasons and laid down a foundation of talent hats capable of winning at the top levellevel
I disagree. Compare our recruiting to the top 5 BCS schools, and we have not. Only on this site do we view ND recruiting with such reverence. It has become really, really hard to attract 5* recruits, which you need to compete in the BCS bowls each year. We have depth, but what else?
That view just isn't supported by the facts.
There are only a couple of programs recruiting above the level ND is the last few years. When you look at the teams around ND in the rankings, it's clear that ND is recruiting at a level that allows them to compete for championships
ND's last 3 recruiting class rankings:
2015 - 11th
2014 - 11th
2013 -- 3rd
Average Class Rank: 8th
Average Recruiting Rank of Top Programs (over the same time period)
Alabama - 1st
Ohio State - 4th
LSU - 5th
Florida State - 6th
Notre Dame - 8th
Auburn - 8th
Georgia - 8th
USC - 8th
Clemson - 10th
UCLA - 13th
Oklahoma - 15th
Oregon - 16th
Texas - 17th
Penn St - 27th
Michigan - 28th
Michigan State - 28th
TCU - 35th
It's clear that ND is recruiting on a level that allows for champsionships, and the "recruiting will kill our future" narative just isn't based in facts
2012 RANKED #1 IN THE COUNTRY
Last yr ND was ranked Top 5 in the country before a rash of injuries and got cheated out of beating FSU which would have vaulted us to # 1 ranking AGAIN !!
Kelly's pretty good
All of this with some lowly 3 star recruits !!
^ ND is in the second group behind the top tier.
Decker, you can finish high in recruiting rankings and really not have a class that is going to allow you to contend.
All 4 Stars are not alike. But 4 Stars can boost a team ranking. (see Weis's 2008 class)
To evaluate the significance of teams classes, aside from team rankings, look at the playmakers or elites within each class and over a period of time. When I try to see if ND is gaining or falling off pace with the elites, I look at the RR or composites for those that are 5.9, 6.0 and the 6.1's. Is the team attracting those prospects? Also you need to look at the distribution of those prospects. ND's OL success weighted is skewing the overall recruiting to look better than it is overall (most obviously on defensive line) where ND has not gotten top tier prospects.
The team records kinda reflect all this: 2012 had experienced elites on DL among them; whereas the 8-4 teams lacked that kind of player.
example: '12,'13,'14
5.9's or greater: USC (on probation) had 23; Ala had 39 whereas ND had 14 (none on DL)
(Also for the Vanderdoes year, that rating is a bit off A/C of his stunt, and the top 3 players in 2012's class did not end up playing for ND)
Decker, you can finish high in recruiting rankings and really not have a class that is going to allow you to contend.
All 4 Stars are not alike. But 4 Stars can boost a team ranking. (see Weis's 2008 class)
To evaluate the significance of teams classes, aside from team rankings, look at the playmakers or elites within each class and over a period of time. When I try to see if ND is gaining or falling off pace with the elites, I look at the RR or composites for those that are 5.9, 6.0 and the 6.1's. Is the team attracting those prospects? Also you need to look at the distribution of those prospects. ND's OL success weighted is skewing the overall recruiting to look better than it is overall (most obviously on defensive line) where ND has not gotten top tier prospects.
The team records kinda reflect all this: 2012 had experienced elites on DL among them; whereas the 8-4 teams lacked that kind of player.
example: '12,'13,'14
5.9's or greater: USC (on probation) had 23; Ala had 39 whereas ND had 14 (none on DL)
(Also for the Vanderdoes year, that rating is a bit off A/C of his stunt, and the top 3 players in 2012's class did not end up playing for ND)
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That's actually a worse (or less accurate) way to look at recruiting rankings, which are already flawed.
The team rankings assign a point value to each individual 4* based on thier specific national rank (you can see the formula right off of one of Rivals links) so that a highly ranked 4* ends up being much more valuable to your team score than a low/unranked 4* would.
Additionally, going by a "gut feel" of how recruiting is going overall is especially bad, because you tend to dismiss prospects that have been committed for a long time or aren't at glamour positions (the OL contributing heavily to both) while these prosepcts are really the most important units for the team.
Beyond that, what you're trying to do basically counts things against Notre Dame (losses, transfers, etc) but you're not counting any of those same things against other school...because you don't know as much about them. The reality is that those kinds of losses happen everywhere, so if you're going to "re-rank" ND's class based on that then you need to go back and do it to all hte other classes too. You can't just compare your "re-rank" of ND's class to other classes, assuming they're 100% intact
Basically, ND's recruiting ranking is exactly what it says it is......in the Top10 (nearly Top5) of the entire nation over the past 3 years....and absolutely at a level that allows us to compete for championships, if we play to that potential.
We're right there with the recruiting of USC, Auburn, Georgia, etc. and ahead of Texas, Oklahoma, Clemson, etc.
Finally, you're factually incorrect about your point on the DL experience correlating directly with win/loss records.
2012 DL - KLM (rSr.), Nix (rSO.), Tuitt (SO), Shembo (JR.) / Key backups: Day (FR.) , Schwenke (JR.), Springman (rSO.)
2013 DL - Day (SO.) , Nix (rJR.), Tuitt (JR), Shembo (SR.) / Key Backups: Jones (rFR), Schwenke (SR.), Springman (rJR)
It was almost exactly the same DL from 2012 in 2013, and it was much more experienced across the board because of that.
The young DL went 12-1, the older DL went 8-5.
The record had far more to do with the situation at QB and injuries than it had to do with experience along the DL.
It's reason like this that you can't go with "gut feel", how you're suggesting....you often end up with completely, factually incorrect stances when you try to do so
You have to look at the actual facts, and use those to base your opinions
The facts show that ND has recuited at a level to allow for championship contention the past 3 seasons. ND needs to continue to recruit at the level they have been (I believe they are) and get the team to play up to their talent consistently (they haven't been recently) in order to do that.
your response reminds me of the line from A Few Good Men
"so why is Pvt. Santiago dead?"
I think you just started with what you want to believe and find a way to explain it. But, fact is my post is supported by RESULTS. You need to explain the lack of W's and lack of Major Bowl participations. You're making a contention that flies in the face of results.
(check mins played for Tuitt and Nix in 2013; and every ND fan knows they vastly underperformed looking ahead to the draft)
(when you get 3 5.9's and all 3 leave it is much different than getting 39 and losing the 4-5 that the coaches want to let go)
btw: 21,28 (FSU and tOSU) 5.9's or greater. same 12-14 period.
so you have recent NC's
"so why is Pvt. Santiago dead?"
I think you just started with what you want to believe and find a way to explain it. But, fact is my post is supported by RESULTS. You need to explain the lack of W's and lack of Major Bowl participations. You're making a contention that flies in the face of results.
(check mins played for Tuitt and Nix in 2013; and every ND fan knows they vastly underperformed looking ahead to the draft)
(when you get 3 5.9's and all 3 leave it is much different than getting 39 and losing the 4-5 that the coaches want to let go)
btw: 21,28 (FSU and tOSU) 5.9's or greater. same 12-14 period.
so you have recent NC's
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This is pretty comparable to virtually any school in the nation, with the exception of FSU and Bama. Or LSU (which I believe their classes aew overvalued as a lot of SEC schools are. There is a bias toward SEC states by recruiting gurus).
2013- 11 guys who were 5.9 or better on rivals (1 never made it to ND due to grandma issues).
2014- 4 guys 5.9 or better on rivals
2015- 9 guys 5.9 or better on rivals ( and likely 3 more that should have been)
And this year's class will likely see 2 or 3 more guys bump to a 5.9 or better, and they are in a a few others.
2013- 11 guys who were 5.9 or better on rivals (1 never made it to ND due to grandma issues).
2014- 4 guys 5.9 or better on rivals
2015- 9 guys 5.9 or better on rivals ( and likely 3 more that should have been)
And this year's class will likely see 2 or 3 more guys bump to a 5.9 or better, and they are in a a few others.
we can expect a few bumps: most likely to 5.8.
You guys can rationalize things till pigs fly but where are the Major bowl W's?
I cited 5.9's and if you go 6.0 and 6.1 the results are even less favorable.
ND is putting together an offense that has awesome potential: size speed and balance.
ND needs to get on top of it defensively; close but lacking the impact players. Tillery may be that type of guy but he will need some help. (Ideally, if ND had top DT depth JT looks like the prototype DE)
(Example of what it takes: OWeB and Gary; that is how close it is to being a bowl contender or being in the second tier group. Those and then talk NC contention.)
gipper: I did not factor incoming Fr. as they haven't even attended a class yet. (EV affect)
You guys can rationalize things till pigs fly but where are the Major bowl W's?
I cited 5.9's and if you go 6.0 and 6.1 the results are even less favorable.
ND is putting together an offense that has awesome potential: size speed and balance.
ND needs to get on top of it defensively; close but lacking the impact players. Tillery may be that type of guy but he will need some help. (Ideally, if ND had top DT depth JT looks like the prototype DE)
(Example of what it takes: OWeB and Gary; that is how close it is to being a bowl contender or being in the second tier group. Those and then talk NC contention.)
gipper: I did not factor incoming Fr. as they haven't even attended a class yet. (EV affect)
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No, you're trying to slam different topics together to backup and agenda, I'm simply basing analysis from facts
Initial point:
"ND isn't recruiting well enough to compete for championships"
Facts:
1.) ND has averaged the 8th ranked recruiting class the last 3 years
2.) Participants from each of the last 3 NCG's have had an equal or lower average recruiting ranking to ND, over the same period
3.) Those team "competed for championships" with equal or lesser (on paper) recruiting to ND
Conclusion:
Notre Dame is, in fact, recruiting at a level that allows you to compete for championships
Everything else you've said is on a different topic or trying to confuse the point......which is very cut and dried (in reality)
I simply pointed out how totally backwards your point about the 2012 v. 2013 DLs was, in order to show why the "go with an overall feel" is completely worthless
You can take your own look at the facts, but you have to base what you're saying in facts, no matter what.
When you just make a bunch of stuff up, it becomes totally meaningless
You think a kid that measured in at 6'6.5" 300lbs BEFORE THE START OF HIS FROSH YEAR, looks like a protoytype DE?
Nevermind the fact that it's a virtual certainty that this kid will continue to fill out as he spends time in a college weight room, and his playing size will likely be 6'6.5" 320+lbs.
Is there even a single 4-3 DE in all of CFB that is as big as Tillery is right now? Is there even one in the NFL?
Tillery seems to scream "Prototype OT" to me, but since he's clearly a natural and extremely talented play on the DL, I don't see how anyone could view him as anything other than custom made DT
For comparison's sake, it's likely that he'll be much bigger than Tuitt (3-4 DE, 4-3 DT) and possibly even bigger than Jarron Jones (3-4 NT, 4-3 NT)....he's just very athletic and carries his weight extremely well for some his age/size
This is another great example of having to go by the facts (height, weight, size, projected weight/size) instead of "gut feel" by just looking at someone briefly or reading a report about how their "active and disruptive"
When you go by the facts, it begins to make perfect sense that Tillery was taking snaps at NT with the 1's all spring (with Jones and Cage both out/limited)
WOW: you're so incorrect - there is no point to trying to enlighten you.
Fortunately, I don't think the staff is so dilusional.
Btw: you had 4 teams tied for eighth! And you realy believe ND is recruiting at a level of the recent NC?
Then you must be of the opinion that ND has the worst freakin HC of all time.
3 +11 + 11 / 3 that is your methodology? Take a better look! The composition of the class does not factor into it? (Hypothetically if you had 24 5* QB's what do you think of such a class?)
Ah geez; unbelievable.
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Yes, an average of 8th is definitely at a level that allows "to compete for a national championship" as Auburn showed (they're also tied with ND at 8th)
Your argument that just looking at the overall classes doesn't take positional recruiting into account is correct in theory, but only if you take it to a foolish extreme...and an extreme that isn't true about ND
There are no classes that are so rabidly slanted to just 1 position.
If you say I'm working, you need to show how ND isn't actually recruiting at the level that all the facts say that they are... Because right now your just trying to argue a point that isn't supported by facts
Basically, you're just making crap up
As for "why we're the last 2 seasons mediocre?"
You realize that most of the recruiting classes we're talking about we're in high school for the seasons you're talking about, and we're underclass men (at best) if they we're at ND
Judging those classes would only make sense for 2015 and 2016 seasons (and beyond) as they're actually taking meaningful college snaps
You really need to go back to the facts and stop trying to just toss out every feeling you have and seeing what sticks
Decker, most of us on this site already know this about the poster. Then when he is presented with facts, he becomes abusive. As you are now seeing.
I enjoy reading your posts though and appreciate the information you bring.
Go Irish!
31-0 in favor of Decker, great points. I've said for years ND has the players to compete for NC's and the horses to compete with anybody in the country. Last year, ND beat the defending Champs on the road facing the best player in the country, a team carrying a 20 plus game win streak. Beat LSU with a first time starting QB and a defense filled with freshmen. If you've watched any ND football over the past 3 years, it's clear the players can play with all the 6.0/5.9 teams and that garbage argument. Argument loses all credibility when I start reading 5.8/5.7/5.9/6.0, good lord.
except; you think a proper stat is to add 3 numbers and then divide by 3 (which may be as involved this forum can understand) is an accurate way to assess recruiting? BTW one of those 3 numbers is incorrect. (2012 ND was RR 20th)
AND his answer is also incorrect in that he fails to weight the fact that the 8th place number is a tie with 4 other teams. OYE!
BUT since you want to believe something - you gonna find a way.
You can try the character assassination thing but it ain't gonna change the facts: facts that explain 8-4.
Decker: now you have the support of one of the argie ID's - well done!
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Wow. Still being debated. The facts are the facts. Any player rated below a 5.8 or 5.9 is a long shot to be a difference maker. This has been proven based on years of prior recruiting in relation to final ranking and wins-losses. Eifert, etc. were certainly exceptions to this rule, but as a whole, these parameters hold true. With Bama, etc, they have so may highly rated players that they can afford a few busts and get away with it. In this years class, ND can't because everyone is a 3-star, marginal 4 star. Unless Kelly is some kind of genius who is light years ahead of other coaching staffs, it is highly doubtful this class will produce anything but maybe 1 or 2 difference maker. Coupled with his history of poor decision making, why are so many of you willing to just put blind faith into a coach who consistently has under-achieved? One 12-1 season does not make legend. Multiple 8-5 seasons is statistically more significant.
tOSU, FSU, and Ala from 2012-2014 recruited 7,6,6 DL RR 5.9 or better
ND recruited 1
When your team is losing more, you cannot make the argument the you have both better talent AND better coaching, unless your smoking what GBryant is!
ND recruited 1
When your team is losing more, you cannot make the argument the you have both better talent AND better coaching, unless your smoking what GBryant is!
What number is incorrect?
I posted the recruiting rankings (according to Rivals) from the past 3 years. 2012 wasn't on that list. If you want to include it and re-do the analysis you certainly could
And how am I "ignoring" that 3 other teams also had an average of 8th?
In fact, I reference those other teams that are recruiting at the same level as ND (Auburn, USC, Georgia) and use them to complete my point...other teams recruiting at the same level as ND over the last 3 years are widely considered to be in a position (talent wise) to compete for championships
And posting "8-4" really has very little to do with this specific discussion, unless you think 2 classes being in high school and a group of true frosh are really indicative of the quality of those recruiting classes........
If you want to talk about "Our results haven't been good enough the lsat 2 seasons" that's a completely differnet discussion (and one I'm willing to have) but as far as recruiting goes......you're just not making any relevant or accurate points here
Who's putting blind faith in anything, or saying this recruiting class is amazing?
At the same time, judging a bunch of prospects to be "3* players" before their senior year of high school is also very foolish....especially when many/most were heavily recruited by major programs and top coaching staffs
Players like Zach Martin, Harrison Smith, Will Fuller, Mike McGlinchey, etc. that are used to make the "4*/5* players are our difference makers!" argument were all ranked as 3*'s at this point in their careers
If guys who are widely considered to be strong prospects, but are current Rivals 3*'s (Eichenberg, Bourdeaux, Claypool, Elliott, Stepherson) get signifcant bumps as many expect (including myself) do they suddenly become better players and does this class get filled with more impact guys?
The discussion in this thread has been:
1.) ND hasn't ben recruiting well recently
(Untrue, ND has been in the Top10 of recruiting recently, and at a level that should allow ND to compete for championships)
2.) The 2016 recruiting class for ND is "Pathetic" and will do major harm to the program
(Again untrue, the class is decent and could be in line with previous classes, we'll need to see how the final rankings come out before making those judgements)
It's a damn shame Kei Russell, Sheldon Day, Corey Robinson, Will Fuller, Ronnie Stanley, Jarron Jones, Troy Niklas, DaVarris Daniels, Tj Jones, Prince Shembo, KLM, Zach Martin, Theo Riddick, RJ Blanton, Harrison Smith were all 5.8 guys. Oh what could have been..
why in hell bring in a class that has not even been in class?
what the hell did they contribute to 8-4, 8-4?
Do you realize how utterly stupid the average you conjured is?
This thread has gone on longer then expected and there is a lot of anger here. Good points on both sides but simply saying the average recruiting class rank is 8 over the course of the last 3 years doesn't provide a full picture of whats going on. Its important to consider that in these classes each has been boosted by strong classes at certain positions(OL, TE, WR, LB) which have helped the rankings but also cover up for deficiencies at other positions. (DL, Secondary)
^^^^^^^^^^^A troll starved for attention^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
You seem to want to keep looking at the 2013 and 2014 seasons, but that's not the question in this thread. In this thread we're talking about recent recruiting and it's impact on upcoming seasons
The 8-5 records in 2013 and 2014 really aren't relevant to that conversation (anymore than Ohio St's 6-6 season in 2011 was relevant to 2013/2014, Auburn's 3-9 season was relevant to 2011/2013, etc.)
Notre Dame has recruited recently at a level that's in line with teams that are widely accepted as able to recruit for championships (USC, Auburn, Georgia, Celmson, Oregon, Texas, Oklahoma, etc.)
The fact that Notre Dame has recruited on a level that allows them to compete for championships doesn't guarantee that they will compete for championships in coming years, but your claim that Notre Dame's recruiting negatively impacts that chance just isn't backed up by fact
You can keep tossing around names and insults, but it doesn't help your case
The situation that the coach was working from prior to those season, would probably be a good start. Other seasons and circumstances would also be good information.
I'm not blindly supporting Kelly, and I also need to see results...now that he has the team he needs to produce consistent results.
But again, all this "8-5, all that needs to be said" is just a cheap cop out that has absolutely nothing to do with the actual topic of this thread
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