Strength of Schedule Numbers

[Juniper_Run]

I've seen a fair bit of trash talking recently regarding relative strengths of schedule. Actual numbers have been conspicuously absent from these arguments. So, for those who prefer to use some stats when arguing, I've compiled SOS numbers for every team that has made the playoffs.

The first number is from Jeff Sagarin, whose system is supposed to take many advanced metrics into account. His numbers are available as far back as 2013, so the stat reflects each team's average SOS rating from 2013 to 2018. The second number is from Wes Colley, whose system relies purely on wins and losses. His 2018 numbers aren't coming up for some reason, so the date range reflected is 2013 to 2017. I chose these two systems because they are from opposite ends of the measurement spectrum and, more importantly, because they are easy to find and compile! The number in brackets is the composite of the two systems.

1. Bama 13.2 -- 12.4 [12.8]
2. UGA 22.5 -- 23.6 [23.1]
3. ND 25.2 -- 21.0 [23.1]
4. OK 17.3 -- 33.8 [25.6]
5. Clem 25.8 -- 28.8 [27.3]
6. OSU 34.0 -- 22.6 [28.3]
7. FSU 28.8 -- 32.6 [30.7]
8. MSU 29.8 -- 33.0 [31.4]
9. OR 32.5 -- 30.8 [31.7]
10. Wash 38.0 -- 48.4 [43.2]

As you can see, we have a great argument that we consistently play tough schedules. We're not at the top of the heap, though.

I also looked up numbers for four other teams. Michigan and Florida were the fanbases I was seeing most of the trash-talking from. Wisconsin is the team whose schedule I've seen criticized most often, and Auburn is the team most often praised. Looks like both narratives are realistic. In fact, Auburn is head and shoulders above everyone as far as recent SOS is concerned.

UM 37.5 -- 16.2 [26.9]
Fla 25.0 -- 15.4 [20.2]
Aub 9.3 -- 6.0 [7.7]
Wis 46.8 -- 38.4 [42.6]

 

[mrwigglesby21]

I've seen a fair bit of trash talking recently regarding relative strengths of schedule. Actual numbers have been conspicuously absent from these arguments. So, for those who prefer to use some stats when arguing, I've compiled SOS numbers for every team that has made the playoffs.

The first number is from Jeff Sagarin, whose system is supposed to take many advanced metrics into account. His numbers are available as far back as 2013, so the stat reflects each team's average SOS rating from 2013 to 2018. The second number is from Wes Colley, whose system relies purely on wins and losses. His 2018 numbers aren't coming up for some reason, so the date range reflected is 2013 to 2017. I chose these two systems because they are from opposite ends of the measurement spectrum and, more importantly, because they are easy to find and compile! The number in brackets is the composite of the two systems.

1. Bama 13.2 -- 12.4 [12.8]
2. UGA 22.5 -- 23.6 [23.1]
3. ND 25.2 -- 21.0 [23.1]
4. OK 17.3 -- 33.8 [25.6]
5. Clem 25.8 -- 28.8 [27.3]
6. OSU 34.0 -- 22.6 [28.3]
7. FSU 28.8 -- 32.6 [30.7]
8. MSU 29.8 -- 33.0 [31.4]
9. OR 32.5 -- 30.8 [31.7]
10. Wash 38.0 -- 48.4 [43.2]

As you can see, we have a great argument that we consistently play tough schedules. We're not at the top of the heap, though.

I also looked up numbers for four other teams. Michigan and Florida were the fanbases I was seeing most of the trash-talking from. Wisconsin is the team whose schedule I've seen criticized most often, and Auburn is the team most often praised. Looks like both narratives are realistic. In fact, Auburn is head and shoulders above everyone as far as recent SOS is concerned.

UM 37.5 -- 16.2 [26.9]
Fla 25.0 -- 15.4 [20.2]
Aub 9.3 -- 6.0 [7.7]
Wis 46.8 -- 38.4 [42.6]

Just used snipping tool and emailed to a Michigan fan/buddy who keeps saying ND plays nobody then references Navy.

 

[SIhoosier26]

Just used snipping tool and emailed to a Michigan fan/buddy who keeps saying ND plays nobody then references Navy.

Not sure what a Michigan fan would have room to say right now, in their last 2 appearances against Notre Dame they’ve scored a combined 1 touchdown. The only good team they play besides Notre Dame is Ohio State and they get steamrolled every year.

If there’s ever been a time for Michigan fans to shut up and be humble, it’s right now.

 

[B_Agate]

Do those numbers include bowl games?

 

[Patrirish]

Just used snipping tool and emailed to a Michigan fan/buddy who keeps saying ND plays nobody then references Navy.

Didn’t Navy come incredibly close to beating a vaunted Ohio State team in recent years.

 

[Juniper_Run]

Just used snipping tool and emailed to a Michigan fan/buddy who keeps saying ND plays nobody then references Navy.

Love it, wigglesby! That's just the kind of thing I hoped this post would be used for!

 

[Patrirish]

Not sure what a Michigan fan would have room to say right now, in their last 2 appearances against Notre Dame they’ve scored a combined 1 touchdown. The only good team they play besides Notre Dame is Ohio State and they get steamrolled every year.

If there’s ever been a time for Michigan fans to shut up and be humble, it’s right now.

Can’t disagree with that !

 

[Juniper_Run]

Do those numbers include bowl games?

Yes, bowl games are included. I think it would be more informative to have only the regular season since those are the games that each school actually controls, but I wasn't sure how to find those numbers on Sagarin's site.

 

[88ND]

Didn’t Navy come incredibly close to beating a vaunted Ohio State team in recent years.

Don't know but Army lost in overtime to Oklahoma last year.

This sos stuff is horseshit.

It's a popularity contest.

The SEC which has been overrated collectively gets a huge boost automatically just by playing other overrated foes.

Bama never crosses the Mason dixon line.

Most of the upper teams don't play the academies. The academies play some god damn tough football.

It's exactly why there needs to be an 8 team playoff.

8 teams isn't perfect as the 9th team will always complain but it helps eliminate a lot of this over the top SEC love affair.

 

[zonairish]

Just used snipping tool and emailed to a Michigan fan/buddy who keeps saying ND plays nobody then references Navy.

You are way smarter than your buddy

 

[SIhoosier26]

Bama never crosses the Mason dixon line.

This is the kind of stuff that never gets talked about with most southern teams, would be interesting to see them come up north for a change.

Not to mention every bowl game worth a damn is played in their backyards.

 

[88ND]

This is the kind of stuff that never gets talked about with most southern teams, would be interesting to see them come up north for a change.

Not to mention every bowl game worth a damn is played in their backyards.

Absolutely.

The writers are always 5 years behind the times.

The SEC had a run there and were the class of college football.

Today? No way.

Every team including Bama is still living off this 5 year old rep.

Bama is better than most but there is a huge drop off from them and the #2 sec team. Including Georgia.

The 80's.. were Miami, Notre Dame, Penn State, Oklahoma

The 90's...1992 aside was Notre Dame, FSU, Nebraska...
Early to mid 2000's was USC and more USC.

Yet the writers would have you believe nobody else in the country plays tackle football. Only the SEC.

Fukc them.

 

[echowaker]

This is the kind of stuff that never gets talked about with most southern teams, would be interesting to see them come up north for a change.

Not to mention every bowl game worth a damn is played in their backyards.

i believe Bama recently signed a home and home with wisconsin.

 

[SIhoosier26]

i believe Bama recently signed a home and home with wisconsin.

I couldn't care less about a game in September against a program they know they're going to demolish. I'm talking about the major bowl sites.

 

[echowaker]

I couldn't care less about a game in September against a program they know they're going to demolish. I'm talking about the major bowl sites.

i wasn't the one who posted "would be interesting to see them come up north for a change " . most bowl sites are in warm weather venues considering the calendar. would you prefer a bowl game in Green Bay ?

 

[SIhoosier26]

i wasn't the one who posted "would be interesting to see them come up north for a change " . most bowl sites are in warm weather venues considering the calendar. would you prefer a bowl game in Green Bay ?

I think playing the most important games in your area of the country is absolutely an advantage. When is the last time Bama even played a game up north?

 

[NDAFArly]

Just used snipping tool and emailed to a Michigan fan/buddy who keeps saying ND plays nobody then references Navy.

Navy is infinitely better than the directional schoools UM plays.
UM scheduled Air Force & Army.
Army looks good now, but when Michigan scheduled them they were the worst of the Academies. Notice they didn’t schedule Navy, who at the time was playing for conference titles in the AAC. (The best G5 conference).

Honestly, just ignore anyone who says ND doesn’t schedule anybody, it’s the dumbest argument along haters out there. The strength of ND’s national appeal in their scheduling.

Here is a video from the guys who used to be called “SECFans” who do podcasts for college football. Now they changed they name & do a lot more. Even has SEC fans they talk the importance of ND. Explains why they are the most important team in college football (because of scheduling):

 

[echowaker]

I think playing the most important games in your area of the country is absolutely an advantage. When is the last time Bama even played a game up north?

i don't disagree but it's not Bama or any other southern schools fault when it comes to geography. no different than Stanford or USC playing in the Rose Bowl.

 

[NDIRISH53]

Not sure what a Michigan fan would have room to say right now, in their last 2 appearances against Notre Dame they’ve scored a combined 1 touchdown. The only good team they play besides Notre Dame is Ohio State and they get steamrolled every year.

If there’s ever been a time for Michigan fans to shut up and be humble, it’s right now.

Penn state on the road is tough, regardless of how good penn state is. Very tough place to play, and fortunately for ND they play in happy valley before ND comes to Ann Arbor

 

[NDIRISH53]

I think playing the most important games in your area of the country is absolutely an advantage. When is the last time Bama even played a game up north?

2011 they went to happy valley. Also, that was the last time they played an out of conference road game. 8 freaking years

 

[Juniper_Run]

Navy is infinitely better than the directional schoools UM plays.
UM scheduled Air Force & Army.
Army looks good now, but when Michigan scheduled them they were the worst of the Academies. Notice they didn’t schedule Navy, who at the time was playing for conference titles in the AAC. (The best G5 conference).

Honestly, just ignore anyone who says ND doesn’t schedule anybody, it’s the dumbest argument along haters out there. The strength of ND’s national appeal in their scheduling.

Here is a video from the guys who used to be called “SECFans” who do podcasts for college football. Now they changed they name & do a lot more. Even has SEC fans they talk the importance of ND. Explains why they are the most important team in college football (because of scheduling):

View embedded media

The video that NDAfArly posted is absolutely spot-on. The Playoff Committee's job SHOULD be really simple: just pick the teams with the best records against the toughest schedules. But because of conferences, they have no reliable way to determine strength of schedule. There are plenty of data points to compare two teams within a conference, but almost none to compare two teams from separate conferences. How in the world do you decide whether Ohio State's blowout victory over Rutgers is more impressive than Oklahoma's blowout victory over Kansas?

If we could get a few more independents or 7-game conference schedules, then SOS metrics would vastly more accurate.

 

[tbonesays]

2011 they went to happy valley. Also, that was the last time they played an out of conference road game. 8 freaking years

And UGA crossed the Mason Dixon line for the first time in in 25 years their trip to SB. I thought they were one of the bolder schools.

on the SOS. I really wish someone would break down what it's like to play a few cupcakes and few top ranked teams versus a steady diet of .500 teams. I suspect you'll find more undefeated teams in the former and a higher winning % in the latter.

 

[Kelso86]

Didn’t Navy come incredibly close to beating a vaunted Ohio State team in recent years.

"Didn’t Navy come incredibly close to beating a vaunted Ohio State team in recent years."

I think maybe 8-9 years ago, Navy had scored and was going for a 2 point attempt to tie, fumbled, OSU took it the other way and that is how it ended.

In the 2014 national championship year for OSU, it was close mid way through the 4th, before OSU pulled away.

 

[twalsh]

Just used snipping tool and emailed to a Michigan fan/buddy who keeps saying ND plays nobody then references Navy.

There are people out there who are convinced we play all three academies every season. Just smile at their ignorance.

 

[twalsh]

"Didn’t Navy come incredibly close to beating a vaunted Ohio State team in recent years."

I think maybe 8-9 years ago, Navy had scored and was going for a 2 point attempt to tie, fumbled, OSU took it the other way and that is how it ended.

In the 2014 national championship year for OSU, it was close mid way through the 4th, before OSU pulled away.

I believe that South Carolina, in their only season of winning the SEC East, had to stop a Navy drive in the last minute to beat them. Ricky Dobbs era, they were really good then.

 

[Patrirish]

USC doesn’t come to SB late in the season and many if not most southern schools don’t come north late in the season.

I don’t mind that the bowls are in warmer climates but it’s a clear advantage for USC/UCLA/Stanford to play in the Rose Bowl, Miami in the Orange Bowl, L.S.U. In the Sugar Bowl, Texas in the Cotton Bowl.

Both teams should have to travel