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Recruiting - the reason why coaches get fired sooner rather than later

chaseball

I've posted how many times?
Sep 8, 2007
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It's hard to build a coaching staff with a lame duck head coach. it's difficult to retain recruiting class and recruit into the future with a lame duck head coach. in fact, is there ANY example of a head coach ever being fired "too soon" ? has there ever been a coach at this level with a 7.8 wins per season average after 7+ years with a program who suddenly lead that program to regular national championship contention?

Retaining BK is not only hurting the ND program in 2017 while he's here .. it's hurting the future of the program as well based on the program's ability to retain its current class and sign a high quality/elite class going forward.

notre dame is playing checkers while other prominent programs are playing chess. when will the naivety from ND administration ever stop?
 
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It's hard to get top level coaches and recruits away from thriving programs with normal academic standards. ND has just lost its luster and the players that come here aren't 100% focused on football anymore.
 
It's hard to build a coaching staff with a lame duck head coach. it's difficult to retain recruiting class and recruit into the future with a lame duck head coach. in fact, is there ANY example of a head coach ever being fired "too soon" ? has there ever been a coach at this level with a 7.8 wins per season average after 7+ years with a program who suddenly lead that program to regular national championship contention?

Retaining BK is not only hurting the ND program in 2017 while he's here .. it's hurting the future of the program as well based on the program's ability to retain its current class and sign a high quality/elite class going forward.

notre dame is playing checkers while other prominent programs are playing chess. when will the naivety from ND administration ever stop?
Kelly has greatly improved the staff and will have another top 20 recruiting class.
 
It's hard to build a coaching staff with a lame duck head coach. it's difficult to retain recruiting class and recruit into the future with a lame duck head coach. in fact, is there ANY example of a head coach ever being fired "too soon" ? has there ever been a coach at this level with a 7.8 wins per season average after 7+ years with a program who suddenly lead that program to regular national championship contention?

Retaining BK is not only hurting the ND program in 2017 while he's here .. it's hurting the future of the program as well based on the program's ability to retain its current class and sign a high quality/elite class going forward.

notre dame is playing checkers while other prominent programs are playing chess. when will the naivety from ND administration ever stop?

They'll stop the same day you stop posting the same drivel time after time
 
I was all for letting Kelly go, and didn't think he deserved the opportunity to turn things around after last season and his stubborn support of BVG at the expense of the program. Didn't happen. But unlike many here, I don't think of Kelly as a lame duck HC. He's on the hot seat for sure, but I think that has motivated him to take a hard look at every aspect of the program, including himself, and to make all the staff changes. I personally think Kelly has a two or three year timeframe during which he expects to be the successful HC at ND and totally rehabilitate his reputation and standing with ND nation. Regardless of personal feelings, why wouldn't every ND fan want this as well?
 
Luckily Clemson won a national championship starting something like 10, 2 and 3 star players, and did so with a spread offense that is pass happy and relies on horizontal runs.

My point?

If ND closes this class with 6 or 7 quality recruits (even if they are high 3 and low 4 star players) and rebounds with some complete studs in 2018, this team can still be built a lot like the Clemson team that just slayed mighty Bama... Just have to get the momentum going back in the other direction.

Look at some of the guys left on the board...

4 star WR Oliver Martin
3 star WR Gavin Holmes
3 star WR Jafar Armstrong (Mizzou Commit)
4 star DT Jerron Cage (Ohio State Commit)
3/4 star DeontreThomas (Nebraska Commit)
3 star NG Myron Tagavaiola
3/4 star WDE Jalen Harris (Arizona Commit)
4 star LB Ellis Brooks
4 star CB Braden Lenzy
3/4 star CB Latavious Brini (Georgia Commit)
3/4 star CB Terrell Bailey (Tennessee Commit)
3 star CB Trey Norwood (Louisville Commit)
3 star S Tresean Smith (Louisville Commit)
3/4 star S/Rover Jordan Genmark-Heath (Cal Commit)
3 star CB Troy Simon (Wake Forest Forest Commit)
2 star CB Jason Pinnock

I'm missing a few, but I've watched all of these films and these are good football players. It's obvious Elko has a good eye for talent.

Regardless, I still wouldn't fill up this year. ND has some top of the line ballers highly interested in next year and I'm excited to see what this new coaching staff can do on the trail!
 
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It's hard to build a coaching staff with a lame duck head coach. it's difficult to retain recruiting class and recruit into the future with a lame duck head coach. in fact, is there ANY example of a head coach ever being fired "too soon" ? has there ever been a coach at this level with a 7.8 wins per season average after 7+ years with a program who suddenly lead that program to regular national championship contention?

Retaining BK is not only hurting the ND program in 2017 while he's here .. it's hurting the future of the program as well based on the program's ability to retain its current class and sign a high quality/elite class going forward.

notre dame is playing checkers while other prominent programs are playing chess. when will the naivety from ND administration ever stop?

"Retaining BK is not only hurting the ND program in 2017 while he's here .. it's hurting the future of the program as well based on the program's ability to retain its current class and sign a high quality/elite class going forward."

So -- in your words, fire Kelly right now -- correct? So, Kelly gets fired NOW as you put it, recruiting goes further in the tank due to unstable people running the show -- what coach in his right mind would want to come into a situation like that? Plus, how long do you think it will take a solid coach to really get a program up and running at ND?

Sounds like a "logical" plan to me!
 
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It's hard to build a coaching staff with a lame duck head coach. it's difficult to retain recruiting class and recruit into the future with a lame duck head coach. in fact, is there ANY example of a head coach ever being fired "too soon" ? has there ever been a coach at this level with a 7.8 wins per season average after 7+ years with a program who suddenly lead that program to regular national championship contention?

Retaining BK is not only hurting the ND program in 2017 while he's here .. it's hurting the future of the program as well based on the program's ability to retain its current class and sign a high quality/elite class going forward.

notre dame is playing checkers while other prominent programs are playing chess. when will the naivety from ND administration ever stop?


I am not at all convinced that Kelly is a lame duck coach.
 
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IIO...interested to read the five you think we have the best chance to flip/sign to join ND. I don't follow recruiting closely, but based on what I've read of late, my five would be:
1. Cage DL
2. Martin WR
3. Holmes WR
4. Thomas DL
5. Simons CB
 
It's hard to build a coaching staff with a lame duck head coach. it's difficult to retain recruiting class and recruit into the future with a lame duck head coach. in fact, is there ANY example of a head coach ever being fired "too soon" ? has there ever been a coach at this level with a 7.8 wins per season average after 7+ years with a program who suddenly lead that program to regular national championship contention?

Retaining BK is not only hurting the ND program in 2017 while he's here .. it's hurting the future of the program as well based on the program's ability to retain its current class and sign a high quality/elite class going forward.

notre dame is playing checkers while other prominent programs are playing chess. when will the naivety from ND administration ever stop?
They don't care, they really don't care. As long as the money keeps rolling in the administration is fine with 8 wins, arrests, academic issues, all of it. They evaluate the program on the revenue it generates. Why payoff Kelly when you can keep him on and still generate the same revenue.
 
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I am not at all convinced that Kelly is a lame duck coach.
Agree. If he were a lame duck I doubt they would let him fire so much of his staff (and have to pay off their contracts) then hire more staff to then fire them all a year later.

I think Kelly is here at least through the 2018 season.
 
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IIO, ND has little to no shot with most of those guys not to mention DE is a hair away from being obliterated in a couple years. If one of the Hayes, Kareem or Okwara get injured or transfer the DE position is destroyed because of the complete failure to recruit that postion in '17 and '15. Same could be said for the CB position.

If Ewell we are in the same boat there, unless O$U decides to cut Cage loose and we sign him. Its really a dereliction of duty that we were not actively sending out offers and recruiting kids in Sept, Oct and Nov, we wait until Jan to start trying to recruit these kids. The reality is ND should have offered and recruiting at least a dozen kids at each of those positions. We do this every year.
 
Luckily Clemson won a national championship starting something like 10, 2 and 3 star players, and did so with a spread offense that is pass happy and relies on horizontal runs.

My point?

If ND closes this class with 6 or 7 quality recruits (even if they are high 3 and low 4 star players) and rebounds with some complete studs in 2018, this team can still be built a lot like the Clemson team that just slayed mighty Bama... Just have to get the momentum going back in the other direction.

Look at some of the guys left on the board...

4 star WR Oliver Martin
3 star WR Gavin Holmes
3 star WR Jafar Armstrong (Mizzou Commit)
4 star DT Jerron Cage (Ohio State Commit)
3/4 star DeontreThomas (Nebraska Commit)
3 star NG Myron Tagavaiola
3/4 star WDE Jalen Harris (Arizona Commit)
4 star LB Ellis Brooks
4 star CB Braden Lenzy
3/4 star CB Latavious Brini (Georgia Commit)
3/4 star CB Terrell Bailey (Tennessee Commit)
3 star CB Trey Norwood (Louisville Commit)
3 star S Tresean Smith (Louisville Commit)
3/4 star S/Rover Jordan Genmark-Heath (Cal Commit)
3 star CB Troy Simon (Wake Forest Forest Commit)
2 star CB Jason Pinnock

I'm missing a few, but I've watched all of these films and these are good football players. It's obvious Elko has a good eye for talent.

Regardless, I still wouldn't fill up this year. ND has some top of the line ballers highly interested in next year and I'm excited to see what this new coaching staff can do on the trail!

Filled with top 10 classes.
 
IIO...interested to read the five you think we have the best chance to flip/sign to join ND. I don't follow recruiting closely, but based on what I've read of late, my five would be:
1. Cage DL
2. Martin WR
3. Holmes WR
4. Thomas DL
5. Simons CB

My guess at the top priorities we have the best chance with...

1. 4 star WR Oliver Martin
2. 3/4 WDE Jalen Harris
3. 3 star S Evan Fields
4. 3 star CB Tre Norwood
5. 2 star DB Jason Pinnock

If I could finish this class with any 9 prospects we have a legit chance at, for 24 total, keeping in mind who is on the board for next year at what positions...

1. 4 Star WR Oliver Martin
2. 4 Star ILB Ellis Brooks
3. 4 Star DT Jerron Cage
4. 3/4 Star DT Deontre Thomas
5. 3/4 Star WDE Jalen Harris
6. 4 Star CB Latavious Brini
7. 3/4 Star CB Terrell Bailey
8. 3 Star S Tresean Smith / Evan Fields
9. 4 Star Rover Jordan Genmark-Heath

That would be a ridiculous haul though and I just don't see it happening. That would havw ND finishing with a top 6'ish class.
 
It's hard to get top level coaches and recruits away from thriving programs with normal academic standards. ND has just lost its luster and the players that come here aren't 100% focused on football anymore.

ND should - at the very least - be able to be as comptetive as Stanford.

Granted, Stanford has not won any National Championships, but even in a rebuilding year they have generally been consistently competitive.
 
IIO, ND has little to no shot with most of those guys not to mention DE is a hair away from being obliterated in a couple years. If one of the Hayes, Kareem or Okwara get injured or transfer the DE position is destroyed because of the complete failure to recruit that postion in '17 and '15. Same could be said for the CB position.

If Ewell we are in the same boat there, unless O$U decides to cut Cage loose and we sign him. Its really a dereliction of duty that we were not actively sending out offers and recruiting kids in Sept, Oct and Nov, we wait until Jan to start trying to recruit these kids. The reality is ND should have offered and recruiting at least a dozen kids at each of those positions. We do this every year.

I guess I'm just not as terrified at DE as you are. I think the worst is behindnus. I've long stated that poor retention cost us a great deal, but it's getting better.... I also happen to think that Jamir Jones Will wind up at WDE. At 6'2.5 and from the same gene pool as his brother, I just don't see him staying 230lbs. I think he winds up with his hand on the ground, playing in the 245-250lb range.

So I have it...


WDE: Daelin Hayes (Soph)
2. Andrew Trumbetti (SR)
3. Julian Okwara (Soph)
4. Jamir Jones (Soph)
5. Jalen Harris (FR)- If we can flip him
6 Justin Ademilola (2018)- Committed

SDE: Jay Hayes (SR)
2. Khalid Kareem (Soph)
3. Jonathan Bonner (SR)- Can also play DT
4. Ade Ogundeji (Soph)
5. Jonathan MacCollister (FR)
6. 2018 Recruit

I don't see the panic. Are we younger at those positions than I'd like to be? Most definitely. But there are some talented players in that group and I expect to see some significant physical development under Balis and Ballou.

I keep coming back to this... outside of maybe Alabama, there just aren't any teams in the country 5 deep, with 4 and 5 star defensive ends. Development off the field in the weight room and on the field with a responsible defensive coordinator, goes a long way.

I think it's also important to understand the role scheme plays in and how that relates to your roster. Look at Wake Forest's defense and where the pressures and sacks came from. A lot of it was from Clark Lea's linebackers. There is no question that Elko strives to get his linebackers involved with pressure and he'll be coaching a quality group of linebackers, who already were well coached by Mike Elston.
 
IIO, I was talking more about 2018 than 2017. In 2018 no Jay Hays and no Trumbetti. I'm not going to consider guys we don't have yet forgetting about flipping guys so no way you can include Harris or Ademilola (lets get through this class before we start talking about holding onto guys from 2018 because we both know a LOT of them will bail if we win 8 games or less).

If Jones does move to DE the LB corp just went from acceptable to bad. Great LB class in '15 but with only J. Jones in '16 and then Adams and White in '17 you are now 1 or 2 players from disaster there.

I realize you are trying to shed some hope but you have been around long enough to realize that when you have huge holes in multiple years it will come back to haunt you. We have seen this during Kelly's tenure when we lose a player and the "next man in" is either far less talented or has no experience. The problem hasn't been injuries, every team has them. The problem has been when a starter (at certain positions) gets injured here is a HUGE drop off in talent.
 
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Java

The move of Jones to DE may be a better match of talent / position. He may have the LB skills but is a better match at DE.

And the '15 LB class 'great'? overstatement. Compared to?
 
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Java

The move of Jones to DE may be a better match of talent pisition. He may have the LB skills but is a better match at DE.

And the '15 LB class 'great'? overstatement. Compared to?
That may very well be but like I said then our LB recruiting looks bad. Mike Frank at ISD said something and I think he's was spot on. Don't look at recruiting as a single class but in a 2 year period. Looking at '16 & '17 there are major problems on defense. Maybe they wont be a problem in '17 or even '18 but down the line the lack of talent and bodies along the DL and/or LB and DB position will be a major problem.

edit: Perse, Barajas, Bilal and Coney were all highly sought after recruits. Will they develop, who knows. Are they not talented or is it poor coaching.. I tend to lead to poor coaching since we have seen poor development across the board at that position. That said that's why you can't simply miss at positions because you never know if a 4 or 5 star kid is going to be around or be the player you thought. Gotta have depth in numbers and talent.
 
M Frank?

For years, I been saying recruiting is a 3 yr process: previous 2 and current year.
Look there is not 1 single defensive position group that ND fans can feel good about using that approach.
17's defensive class class will not be Top 15 'grade'; sure they will add some bodies who flip and the kool aid drinkers and the Kelly shills will try to pump sunshine up ya butts. The usual naives will buy in; and then...!
 
That may very well be but like I said then our LB recruiting looks bad. Mike Frank at ISD said something and I think he's was spot on. Don't look at recruiting as a single class but in a 2 year period. Looking at '16 & '17 there are major problems on defense. Maybe they wont be a problem in '17 or even '18 but down the line the lack of talent and bodies along the DL and/or LB and DB position will be a major problem.

edit: Perse, Barajas, Bilal and Coney were all highly sought after recruits. Will they develop, who knows. Are they not talented or is it poor coaching.. I tend to lead to poor coaching since we have seen poor development across the board at that position. That said that's why you can't simply miss at positions because you never know if a 4 or 5 star kid is going to be around or be the player you thought. Gotta have depth in numbers and talent.
Per Coach D, Elko's defense is very LB oriented. Elko/Lea have been together awhile and I think that they will be moving bodies around to get what they want on the field.
 
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Per Coach D, Elko's defense is very LB oriented. Elko/Lea have been together awhile and I think that they will be moving bodies around to get what they want on the field.


they may have to be willing to take the field themselves!

btw:
it appears ND will fill out this class with prospects a full star or 10 composite points off the norm for the class. While it fills out the roster, it does not upgrade the roster in terms of depth of talent. Recruiting effect this go around will be felt in 2 years for 3 years.
This continues the decent.
This is on Swarbrick for lacking the judgement to do what needed to be done!
 
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Java,

Keep in mind that the defense no long has 3 linebackers. We now use 2 LB's yhand a rover (hybrid safety /SAM). That said, I don't see an issue with...

Buck: TeVon Coney (Jr)
2. Asmar Bilal (Jr)
3. Josh Barajas (Jr)- 5th year option
4. Drue White (Fr)

Mike: Nyles Morgan (SR)
2. Greer Martini (SR)- 5th year option.
3. Jonathan Jones (SOPH)
4. David Adams (FR)

Rover: Drue Tranquil (SR)- 5th and 6th year option.
2. Spencer Perry (SOPH)
3. D.J. Morgan (SOPH)

Again, I see only Rover being a body thin moving forward from numbers perspective and ND is trying to land a 4 star guy out of California to fill that spot and Elston and Elko are going hard after Mike backer Ellis Brooks from Virginia as well. ND already also has excellent Buck and Rover candidates innfold for 2018. They'll likely take two more backers in that class.

ND is short a body at linebacker, but outside of that, numbers aren't a huge concern right now. The concern is developing the guys they have into a better defense. They lost really only 5 bodies from the 22 man 2-deep on a broken defense that was ranked 45th in scoring defense after BVG was dismissed. I think with further development in thw weight room and nutrition department and a significant upgrade in coaching and attitute defenaively, it's not ridiculous to think that this team could play top 30 defense in 2018, especially with the significant number of freshman that were heavily relied on last year having a year of all around development under their belt.

Maybe I'm delusional and I'll eat my words come the season, but I just don't think so.
 
They don't care, they really don't care. As long as the money keeps rolling in the administration is fine with 8 wins, arrests, academic issues, all of it. They evaluate the program on the revenue it generates. Why payoff Kelly when you can keep him on and still generate the same revenue.

Pure, unadulterated nonsense.
 
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IIO, I haven't really looked at Elko defensive scheme but if he does only use 2 LB his thinking makes sense and I understand it. That said, I'm still not happy about the recruiting or the situation at all.

First, I know there are a excited by Elko and he may very well turn out to be a good DC and I don't want slight him in any way but looking at his resume nothing tells me he's going to be an exceptional DC. WF DC that really didn't even get hired at a mid-level D1 school. Bowling Green, Hofstra. Again, he may be very good but I tend to go with the experts (in this case college head coaches) and they didn't seem to be banging down his door. Same goes for most of this staff, can you honestly say anybody on this staff would be sought after by other top programs? I mean Kelly hired Gilmore because Elston wasn't cutting it as DL coach, so now Elston is back coaching DL.

Second, Elko may only play 2 LB but what happens when the next staff rolls in (in '18 or '19) and we have been recruiting for this gimmick defense?

Third, we have had this discussion on this thread but I've followed recruiting long enough and seen the results. Sure you may find a diamond in the rough once in a blue moon but you and I both know if you are battling Temple, Umass or WMU for recruits that player isn't going to be at the level to compete with the likes of MSU or UNC, forget about Clemson or O$U. Those players are nice depth players if you already have a bonafide player or 2 at that position.

Again, my concern about numbers isn't related to '17, my concern is about '18 and even more so beyond that.
 
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I know you don't want to look at guys thatbaren't already on campus, but ND is out recruiting for 2018 and beyond. Just because this class has fallen apart some because of the poor season, it doesn't mean that will happen to every class. This is by far the highest number of decommits Kelly has faced during his tenure. I have no reason to believe that Bauer, Ovie and the Ademilola's are going to decommit as of now..... Also as it stands ND is right in it for defensive guys like PJ Mustipher, Malik Vann, Derek Allen, Tyreke Johnson, Brendan Radley-Hiles, Houston Griffith, Trey Dean, Aneas Hawkins, and others... Just as quickly as you lose momentum in recruiting, you can regain it as well.

Again, all your points are well taken!
 
I know you don't want to look at guys thatbaren't already on campus, but ND is out recruiting for 2018 and beyond. Just because this class has fallen apart some because of the poor season, it doesn't mean that will happen to every class. This is by far the highest number of decommits Kelly has faced during his tenure. I have no reason to believe that Bauer, Ovie and the Ademilola's are going to decommit as of now..... Also as it stands ND is right in it for defensive guys like PJ Mustipher, Malik Vann, Derek Allen, Tyreke Johnson, Brendan Radley-Hiles, Houston Griffith, Trey Dean, Aneas Hawkins, and others... Just as quickly as you lose momentum in recruiting, you can regain it as well.

Again, all your points are well taken!
Oh I agree ND can gain momentum but, and this is a big but, it's is all going to depend on the 2017 season. IMO, I think ND needs to win 10 games to get that type of momentum, 8 isn't going to do it after a 4-8 season.

The reason I don't count next year is because we really don't know. Look at this class, look at all the great players that de-committed, you have pointed them out. I think ND will have trouble holding onto their '18 committed players if we win 8 or less forget adding great players.

For the record I think ND got a great S&C coach in Matt Balis, he's a real steal IMO.
 
java:

at the start of the '16 season we saw posts with countless lineups and contentions that the DL and DL depth was more than adequate. How'd all that go?

Analytical dissertations, are attention getters but really are not and over time have not been very accurate assesments. They do however feed into the mindset of the kool-aid drinkers; like predictions of 11-1 or 12-0 or playoffs! They get the mindless's 'likes'.

The DL problems are evident and are years in the making. Java you are correct that ND can survive against the teams in the 20-40 rankings, but will struggle against teams inside the top 20.
KISS: Occam's razor.

Now Elko may be a good coach and the thing about DL is it only takes 2-3 elite players in a cycle and the whole dynamic changes. ND is a few years from that. There is no immediate nor quik fix.
 
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java:

at the start of the '16 season we saw posts with countless lineups and contentions that the DL and DL depth was more than adequate. How'd all that go?

Analytical dissertations, are attention getters but really are not and over time have not been very accurate assesments. They do however feed into the mindset of the kool-aid drinkers; like predisctions of 11-1 or 12-0 or playoffs!

The DL problems are evident and are years in the making. Java you are correct that ND can survive against the teams in the 20-40 rankings, but will struggle against teams inside the top 20.
KISS: Occam's razor.

Now Elko may be a good coach and the thing about DL is it only takes 2-3 elite plsyers in a cycle and the whole dynamic changes. ND is a few years from that. There is no immediate nor quik fix.
Perse, I think we are on the same page. I think Kelly has recruited well enough to beat most teams we play, I don't think we have the talent to beat the elite teams and honestly I don't think we ever will given the restrictions the administration puts on us.

My big concern is that now we aren't even getting the talent or bodies to compete with mid-level teams. Sure that can change next year but it we could also see another bad class in '18.
 
^ well if Elko is the real deal AND can recruit, he may be a contender to be H.C. in '18.
Just that will change the recruiting dynamic with recruits. ND has a stigma right now and more and more elite recruits, while naming ND in their top 5, will not ultimately be serious about ND. The next H.C. has to change that dynamic. The current belief that ND is passe needs to be put aside before recruiting gets turned around. We need a new Sheriff in town!
 
^ well if Elko is the real deal AND can recruit, he may be a contender to be H.C. in '18.
Just that will change the recruiting dynamic with recruits. ND has a stigma right now and more and more elite recruits, while naming ND in their top 5, will not ultimately be serious about ND. The next H.C. has to change that dynamic. The current belief that ND is passe needs to be put aside before recruiting gets turned around. We need a new Sheriff in town!
ugh, I hope Elko isn't a HC in waiting.. Lou said it and Ara said it, you need experience as a HC to coach at ND. Even if he turns out to be a great DC that doesn't mean he will be a good HC, those are completely different jobs.

There is a long list of great coordinators who were terrible HC.
 
Perse, I think we are on the same page. I think Kelly has recruited well enough to beat most teams we play, I don't think we have the talent to beat the elite teams and honestly I don't think we ever will given the restrictions the administration puts on us.

My big concern is that now we aren't even getting the talent or bodies to compete with mid-level teams. Sure that can change next year but it we could also see another bad class in '18.
Java, I agree with you often, especially as to the Admin not willing to make the kind of changes necessary to be an elite football program again. Whether that is good or bad in the context of the university and its mission, is a different discussion. That said, I think you are being overly pessimistic about this years recruiting class, and the impact of same, by saying we aren't getting the talent to compete with mid-level teams. Even with the defections, this is a solid class, and we have three weeks to go before knowing if it is better or worse than that. Personally, I am impressed with the recruiting and coaching talent Kelly has added, and agree with you about S&C, and expect 2016 will prove an aberration, nothing more.
 
I am not at all convinced that Kelly is a lame duck coach.
Being a lame duck coach requires that he's out of here REGARDLESS of how we do in 2017. Does anyone think that is the case? I doubt it.
 
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