Playing a soft schedule does NOT look like an advantage this year

[Juniper_Run]

I've been tooling around on ESPN's Playoff Predictor. It's based on FPI, so take the numbers for whatever you think of that system. I was struck by how favorable it is toward teams with difficult schedules. Texas and USC have a greater chance to make the playoff than I would have expected, while Georgia and Michigan are lower. I think there's some truth to the idea that Texas, USC, and other teams with tough schedules have a mulligan in their pocket while the teams with weaker schedules probably need to go undefeated. Here are the odds of making the playoff for the 4 teams I mentioned based on a few different scenarios:

USC (12-1 with loss to ND): 93%
USC (12-1 with loss in conference title game): 81%

Texas (12-1 with regular season loss to Oklahoma): 95%
Texas (12-1 with loss in conference title game): 81%

UGA (11-1 with loss to Tennessee): 17%
UGA (12-1 with loss in conference title game): 53%

UM (11-1 with loss to PSU or OSU): 26%
UM (12-1 with loss in conference title game): 52%

 

[ivan brunetti]

I wouldn't call ND's schedule soft. But in most cases, a 12-1 P5 team will get into a playoff before an 11-1 team. Just like a 12-0 ND will get into the playoff before say a 12-1 FSU that loses in the ACC Championship.

 

[Juniper_Run]

I agree. I'm thinking more about the CFB landscape in general and not ND specifically in talking about soft or hard schedules. The Playoff Predictor tool puts us near the middle of the pack in terms of top teams and their schedule strength, which I think is pretty accurate with the information we have so far this season.