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Phil Steele

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NDAFArly

I've posted how many times?
May 25, 2016
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I don't know if anyone else reads his publication, but to me it is the bible of college football. I read all the publications/scouting reports, but no one is close to as accurate as he seems to get it every year. (He predicted we would give up 22.1, we gave up 22.4).

Anyways, did anyone read this year's mag yet? Any comments?

Predicts ND will finish 9th in polls. (Rates us 12th overall).
Says ND should be favored in first 11 games.
Predicts final game at USC could be CFP qualifier for both teams.

Sidenote: Notre Dame has 17th best record over the past decade, despite going 16-21 the three years before Kelly arrived. Adding this year (probably 10+ wins) would put us top 10 with Kelly already despite the horrible '07-'09 Weis years.
 
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D_Master said:
Oh c'mon, Kelly sucks, havent you been reading this board over the years?
Click to expand...

Those haters will really not like the part about ND's success despite injuries. According to his predictor model (which is crazy accurate) there is no way ND should win 10 games last year. He lists the numbers of the two regular season road losses to top 4 teams & ND dominated despite 2 point losses.

Not in his mag but on his blog, that ND was first team to win 10 games despite losing starting QB, RB (2) & DL before end of week 2. Threw in TE as bonus, but not needed.
 
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D_Master said:
Oh c'mon, Kelly sucks, havent you been reading this board over the years?
Click to expand...

well, Kelly is the ONLY ND coach to enter his 7th year w/o a NC or even a Major Bowl win.
The critics more cite that the mission statemnt put forward by the program is as a goal a NC. If we then drop down a notch it would be a Major Bowl. The criticism is ND has fallen back to the 2nd pack that needs a miracle year to get realistically be considered in the NC hunt. Few, if any, think Kelly is a 'bad' coach.
Remember the 'sunshine pumpers' predicted a NC in first 5 years and some multilple NC's; one moron predicts it every single year!
(losers make excuse for failures)
 
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perseverare said:
well, Kelly is the ONLY ND coach to enter his 7th year w/o a NC or even a Major Bowl win.
The critics more cite that the mission statemnt put forward by the program is as a goal a NC. If we then drop down a notch it would be a Major Bowl. The criticism is ND has fallen back to the 2nd pack that needs a miracle year to get realistically be considered in the NC hunt. Few, if any, think Kelly is a 'bad' coach.

(losers make excuse for failures)
Click to expand...

Kelly is fine, Monday through Friday - it's Saturday that screws him up (particularly after the kick-off). Still coach 8 & 4.
 
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perseverare said:
well, Kelly is the ONLY ND coach to enter his 7th year w/o a NC or even a Major Bowl win.
The critics more cite that the mission statemnt put forward by the program is as a goal a NC. If we then drop down a notch it would be a Major Bowl. The criticism is ND has fallen back to the 2nd pack that needs a miracle year to get realistically be considered in the NC hunt. Few, if any, think Kelly is a 'bad' coach.
Remember the 'sunshine pumpers' predicted a NC in first 5 years and some multilple NC's; one moron predicts it every single year!
(losers make excuse for failures)
Click to expand...

I posted this before, but I will again.

Different times. If Kelly coached in the old days, he would have a NC with ND in 2012. (Half of ND's titles were decided by final poll, bowls not counted). Just like many teams have a NC who lost or didn't play in bowl game.

There is a difference between excuses & reality. I take offense to your "loser" comments.
 
Howard Hall 74 said:
Kelly is fine, Monday through Friday - it's Saturday that screws him up (particularly after the kick-off). Still coach 8 & 4.
Click to expand...


Who is your savior? This isn't the 1940's.
This isnt even the 1980's under Holtz. Holtz is on record saying half his players wouldn't be at ND today.
You can complain & call him childish things, but with a 10 win season this year he puts ND back in the top 10 overall programs despite the worst 3 years in decades (16-21) directly before him ('07-'09) that is still counted in the decade rankings.
So he starts off the decade with 16-21, from scratch, unranked, but with his 7 years added to those 3 horrible years will have ND back top 10 nationally, despite academics, injuries, bare cupboard & ND left for dead by most.
That is factual.
 
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NDAFArly said:
I posted this before, but I will again.

Different times. If Kelly coached in the old days, he would have a NC with ND in 2012. (Half of ND's titles were decided by final poll, bowls not counted). Just like many teams have a NC who lost or didn't play in bowl game.

There is a difference between excuses & reality. I take offense to your "loser" comments.
Click to expand...


I agree Kelly faces greater obstacles because of the 'corruption' ignored by the regulating organization.
but:
you can't keep using one excuse after another for losing or faulure w/o it sounding pathetic
This is year 7 and it sounds like the dead horse beating mantra.

Do ND fans repeadedly point out that USC was on probation? Did ND fans place any significance on the Navy QB getting injured....
 
perseverare said:
I agree Kelly faces greater obstacles because of the 'corruption' ignored by the regulating organization.
but:
you can't keep using one excuse after another for losing or faulure w/o it sounding pathetic
This is year 7 and it sounds like the dead horse beating mantra.

Do ND fans repeadedly point out that USC was on probation? Did ND fans place any significance on the Navy QB getting injured....
Click to expand...

What excuse did I make?
I stated a fact off of another statement.

Statement was Kelly only ND coach going to year 7 without NC.
I stated if we are comparing old coaches to Kelly, which the statement does, Kelky would also have a title in 2012 when ND finished regular season #1 in both polls.

What is not factual about what I said?
 
We really do not know that as fact. I remind you of 1993.

btw: is that another excuse?
you guys bring this on yourselves, you hear something of good news or some development and you try to beat the Kelly drum! All prior coaches had at there time of tenure certain restraints and obstacles, as did and does Kelly. They, those at ND after 6 seasons all had had a national accomplishment. What is the accomplishment you claim for Kelly as HC at ND?
When that happens we will all know!
 
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perseverare said:
We really do not know that as fact. I remind you of 1993.

btw: is that another excuse?
Click to expand...

How is that an excuse? Stating a fact is not an excuse.

I will point out to you 1993 is not part of this conversation because by then bowls did determine NCs.
I just realized you don't know what I'm even stating? Or know history of NCs?

Going back to 1887 (when ND started football) until the mid 1970's NCs were determined without bowls by at least one, if not multiple major polls, like AP & UPI.
So from the start of the AP in 1936 for example, & later the UPI, multiple ND NCs were determined at the end of the regular season.
That is factual. This was the case all the way into the mid 1970's. That is how Bama has a NC (finished regular season #1) along with ND in 1973 despite losing to ND in bowl. So if you are going to compare old coaches from that time to Kelly, then make it apples to apples. In fact, in 1949 Michigan passed ND in the polls after the Rose Bowl, but since the AP had ND #1 in the final regular season poll, they get a NC.

You don't know me, so you obviously don't know my hatred for excuses or people who use phrases like "excuses are for losers." Or name calling (like me being called "galacticaly stupid") & so on. So I will give you three tid bits about me to drive that point home. (All three can be easily proven over a beer at the next ND home game in South Bend at the establishment of your choice).

1) 97-05 in special tactics squadron, combat search & rescue. Cannot stress enough how excuses not tolerated. Not possible.
2) graduated Delta Omega national honor society in Epidemiology. Excuses get you kicked out of highly competitive program.
3) co-owner & (recently retired fighter) of Indiana's top combat sport facility (produced numerous UFC & other organizations fighters, & this year Indiana's first national gold gloves champion in 32 years) We don't tolerate weakness or excuses. Ever.

Obviously I could be making it all up? But please don't speak down to me.
 
the reference to 93 was based upon ND manhandling FSU while FSU gets a NC.
That wreaks of 'subjectivity''.

All the coaches in todays college game play by the same rulings that the other does.
That is true for prior eras of college football and those coaches.

So, how can anyone say who had the bigger advantage/disadvantage.
I think you have a predisposition and choose the argument to support it.

This is my observation, without adding subjectivity, Kelly has coached 6 years w/o a NC or a Major Bowl victory: that is a fact; facts are empirically provable observation or prior occurance
 
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I have said that if the 1st 6 years was to reestablish the talent level (after the Ty W recruiting debacle) then this 2nd Kelly contract is where the 'pass' ends: now get some nationally significant W's - not necessarily a NC but a Major Bowl W.


fair enough?
 
NDAFArly said:
How is that an excuse? Stating a fact is not an excuse.

I will point out to you 1993 is not part of this conversation because by then bowls did determine NCs.
I just realized you don't know what I'm even stating? Or know history of NCs?

Going back to 1887 (when ND started football) until the mid 1970's NCs were determined without bowls by at least one, if not multiple major polls, like AP & UPI.
So from the start of the AP in 1936 for example, & later the UPI, multiple ND NCs were determined at the end of the regular season.
That is factual. This was the case all the way into the mid 1970's. That is how Bama has a NC (finished regular season #1) along with ND in 1973 despite losing to ND in bowl. So if you are going to compare old coaches from that time to Kelly, then make it apples to apples. In fact, in 1949 Michigan passed ND in the polls after the Rose Bowl, but since the AP had ND #1 in the final regular season poll, they get a NC.

You don't know me, so you obviously don't know my hatred for excuses or people who use phrases like "excuses are for losers." Or name calling (like me being called "galacticaly stupid") & so on. So I will give you three tid bits about me to drive that point home. (All three can be easily proven over a beer at the next ND home game in South Bend at the establishment of your choice).

1) 97-05 in special tactics squadron, combat search & rescue. Cannot stress enough how excuses not tolerated. Not possible.
2) graduated Delta Omega national honor society in Epidemiology. Excuses get you kicked out of highly competitive program.
3) co-owner & (recently retired fighter) of Indiana's top combat sport facility (produced numerous UFC & other organizations fighters, & this year Indiana's first national gold gloves champion in 32 years) We don't tolerate weakness or excuses. Ever.

Obviously I could be making it all up? But please don't speak down to me.
Click to expand...

blah blah blah at 8-0 we were # 4 at, 9-0 we were number 4, at 10-0 we were # 3..... You should add Dr Who space travelling to your resume'.
 
NDAFArly said:
Those haters will really not like the part about ND's success despite injuries. According to his predictor model (which is crazy accurate) there is no way ND should win 10 games last year. He lists the numbers of the two regular season road losses to top 4 teams & ND dominated despite 2 point losses.

Not in his mag but on his blog, that ND was first team to win 10 games despite losing starting QB, RB (2) & DL before end of week 2. Threw in TE as bonus, but not needed.
Click to expand...

Here's reality.

davie averaged 12 games a year at ND with an average record 7-5
willingham averaged 12 games at ND with an average record of 7-5
Baer coached 1 game and lost.
weis averaged 12.4 games a year and with an average record of 7 - 5.4
kelly averaged 13 games a year and with an average record of 9.16 - 3.83

So, kelly with the benefit of an extra game and some "craptastic" bowl wins is 2 games ahead of the three stooges...
 
I don't know. BK has said and done some things since his regime began that has been questionable in my mind, but in the overall picture, he's the right guy at the right time for ND. I don't know any other realistic qualified coach out there who can recruit, win, and graduate his players any better than BK under the circumstances. If he ever put his name out there, he would be gobbled up by another program before you can say "what the hell just happened?". I know that he and his staff are working their collective butts off to get this thing on a higher level. They are all very competitive and hate losing more than fans. Their livelihood depends on it. Coaching football at ND isn't easy but these guys accepted the challenge. This team has no room for error. A couple of key injuries or suspensions could be catastrophic. You want to lower academic qualifications to get "better" recruits? Ask current and former players how they feel about that. You want a new HC? Who? You want a new DC? Prove that a different DC would have had better results with all the devastating injuries the past couple of years.The answer is to let BK run his program under the ND guidelines the best he can. I really believe Bob Davie tried. CW tried. Hell, Kent Baer tried. Sometimes all this hard work and long hours don't pay off and a change is needed. But, they tried.
 
Its always nice to check in on this Board and to see that some people never change. CVGR continues to spout meaningless nonsense and Pers continues to be negative. Ah well, I'll check back when its closer to the season and see if the quality posters (no, that's not you Pers) have anything of interest to share.
 
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^^^^^^^^^^
there is real irony in that post!


stay away, no one missed you and no one will miss you

the average Forum IQ increases when you are not here!
 
Reading only one side of the arguments about Kelly as I choose to ignore Perse and CGVR, just to avoid the redundant arguments and facts they each present to support their views. That said, Perse at least consistently judged Kelly against the stated goal of winning a National Championship, but I think we all can agree that while that may be the ultimate goal, it is hardly the metric to use to judge Kelly or any ND head coach. I do think it reasonable to use major bowls for this purpose, and there is no question that this represents a HUGE unchecked box on Kelly's ND resume. I am a fan of Kelly and fully appreciate all he has accomplished at ND, but it is past time to start winning our share of major Bowls.
 
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Telx1 said:
Reading only one side of the arguments about Kelly as I choose to ignore Perse and CGVR, just to avoid the redundant arguments and facts they each present to support their views. That said, Perse at least consistently judged Kelly against the stated goal of winning a National Championship, but I think we all can agree that while that may be the ultimate goal, it is hardly the metric to use to judge Kelly or any ND head coach. I do think it reasonable to use major bowls for this purpose, and there is no question that this represents a HUGE unchecked box on Kelly's ND resume. I am a fan of Kelly and fully appreciate all he has accomplished at ND, but it is past time to start winning our share of major Bowls.
Click to expand...

Teix

how is that in any way informative? You just refererred to something I posted and state you did not read it!

My arguments (as you term them) are vastly different and in my opinion more objective and information based than just a rant vs Kelly. and Unlike you and your sunshine pumping ignoramuses, I never personally attack a poster in initiative. But be sure I will cut you off at the knees 7x's worse in reply! Keep about football or topic and discussions are possible; but some of you want to stiffle open debate or discussion! You guys showed up when things started going not so great as fans expected. You want to put sunglasses on a pig and convince us it is a supermodel!
Almost never do you post content - always re a poster. Sick or just inferior?
As Gordon Ramsey might say, "piss off".
 
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Telx1 said:
Reading only one side of the arguments about Kelly as I choose to ignore Perse and CGVR, just to avoid the redundant arguments and facts they each present to support their views. That said, Perse at least consistently judged Kelly against the stated goal of winning a National Championship, but I think we all can agree that while that may be the ultimate goal, it is hardly the metric to use to judge Kelly or any ND head coach. I do think it reasonable to use major bowls for this purpose, and there is no question that this represents a HUGE unchecked box on Kelly's ND resume. I am a fan of Kelly and fully appreciate all he has accomplished at ND, but it is past time to start winning our share of major Bowls.
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now that we are in the playoff era the "major" bowl discussion seems moot. if you don't make the final four the rest become a football NIT.
 
BK
echowaker said:
now that we are in the playoff era the "major" bowl discussion seems moot. if you don't make the final four the rest become a football NIT.
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Agreed.. A W in last year's Fiesta Bowl would have been great but what is it really? Absolutely nothing, a birth in the playoffs and a loss would be better than a Fiesta Bowl win in my opinion. I don't get the major bowl victory appeal as those 'major bowls' lost all relevance with the playoff system, unless of course the playoff game is one of the 'bowls'.
 
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echo and bizzy...I guess I'm in the minority here. This upcoming season will have the semi finals played at the Fiesta Bowl and the Peach Bowl, which leaves the Rose Bowl and The Orange Bowl and the Cotton Bowl and the Sugar Bowl. Obviously, would prefer to play in the Peach or Fiesta Bowl and compete for the National Championship, and so I agree that I would rather lose one of these games playing for a shot at the NC, than play and win one of the other traditional Major Bowls. I don't agree that absent playing in the National Championship series, these other Bowl games are meaningless. A win in last years Fiesta Bowl against Ohio State would have been a GREAT accomplishment, and meaningful in our final ranking, impressive in the eyes of our targeted recruits, and good for college football fans to debate, and most importantly, a great prize for the players and recognition for a very good season. I would strongly prefer an 8 team playoff utilizing each of the Bowl venues, but absent this, I still consider the old major bowls a significant yardstick by which to judge a program.
 
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Howard

I'll bite.

Don't you feel that the staff changes and the reallocation of duties, has vastly improved the staff's game performances?

Example: what game stands out so blatently in '15 that you hang that loss oh (1) the head coach (2) a Coordinator/ asst coach ?

I am talking about a decision not day to day coaching performance. The game you will likely mention is Stanford. But that really was not an actual blunder as much as a continuation of questionable defensive alignments.

Things are better by far from the days of NW.
 
Telx1 said:
echo and bizzy...I guess I'm in the minority here. This upcoming season will have the semi finals played at the Fiesta Bowl and the Peach Bowl, which leaves the Rose Bowl and The Orange Bowl and the Cotton Bowl and the Sugar Bowl. Obviously, would prefer to play in the Peach or Fiesta Bowl and compete for the National Championship, and so I agree that I would rather lose one of these games playing for a shot at the NC, than play and win one of the other traditional Major Bowls. I don't agree that absent playing in the National Championship series, these other Bowl games are meaningless. A win in last years Fiesta Bowl against Ohio State would have been a GREAT accomplishment, and meaningful in our final ranking, impressive in the eyes of our targeted recruits, and good for college football fans to debate, and most importantly, a great prize for the players and recognition for a very good season. I would strongly prefer an 8 team playoff utilizing each of the Bowl venues, but absent this, I still consider the old major bowls a significant yardstick by which to judge a program.
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It's a glorified pageant, I still don't understand what the players are playing for exactly (Fiesta Bowl Trophy?) besides pride. The match-up with the Bucks was exciting for multiple reasons (Urban, defending champs, regional, most talented team in the country) but as I sat there in the Cardinals stadium, I said never again. I try and attend 1 ND game a year and I would much rather attend a regular season game on a college campus whether its week 1 or 10. The fans don't care, the intensity is absent and the overall atmosphere leaves a lot to be desired compared to 99% of the regular season. The recruiting aspect might be a positive with a W but other than that, the only benefit would be to silence BK's critics who would quickly jump to "only ND coach to not have a NC in 6 seasons".
 
echowaker said:
now that we are in the playoff era the "major" bowl discussion seems moot. if you don't make the final four the rest become a football NIT.
Click to expand...

I disagree. The major bowls are in a rotation for the NC. imo Winning one when they are out of rotation doesn't lesson the "major bowl accomplishment".

PS The Peach is now in the mix....
"the New Year's Six: the Rose, Sugar,Orange, Cotton, Fiesta, and Peach."
 
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They play to compete and to show they are a better team than some other highly ranked opponent in a hyped up venue. What's not to like? Like you, I used to get to one ND game a year, and love the college setting, but would like to attend a major bowl or playoff game to have that experience.
 
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Ara64 said:
Holtz had a fantastic run from '88 to '93. He was good in '86 & '87 (5-6, 8-4) and '94-'96 (6-5-1, 9-3, & 8-3). He lose 30 games fans. He wasn't close to ND's big three coaches. I grew up on Street and Smith. There wasn't much talk around my hometown about ND until the Sunday after the first game. I like Phil Steel but like anybody who tries to predict the future, he's wrong more than he's right. Coach Kelly does just fine on Saturday. IMHO!

***Coach Holtz's team lose a lot of close games in '86.
Click to expand...
Ara that was Holtz rebuilding year. He didn't have the horses to compete but he did.
 
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I think it is time to put aside the direct comparisons with the past 4 HC's.
As I stated Kelly has had 6 years to structure 'his' team. Six years to overcome the recruiting relationships lost and the 'empty' classes that tore down the ND depth chart.

Now is the time to harvest the efforts of six years! There is depth and talent and no patience for excuse.
ND / Kelly need a W in a major post season game. He doesn't need a NC but he needs that Major W.
'16 looks like the easier of the next 2 seasons, so the anticipation builds.
 
Ara64 said:
You know AG it all depends on your point of reference. I was so fired up when ND hired Coach Holtz. The 32 year old me thought Coach Holtz would do a '64 turnabout. When you look at the roster in 1986, it looks really good. Coach had to restore discipline to the program, teach them how to win, and restore confidence in themselves. Losing the natural enemy to team confidence. Two losing seasons in 5 seasons took a heavy toll on the team. He did have a QB issue because Steve Beuerlein wasn't a good fit for his offense.

The 1986 starters and key reserves:

http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/notre-dame/1986-roster.html
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You could argue that 1986 was Holtz's best coaching job at ND. 5-6 with a roster loaded with mediocrity, especially on the line of scrimmage, and the only game we were not right in until the end was at Bama. I can still remember filing out of the Michigan game and seeing a look of contentment on many Irish fan faces. Even though we lost, you could just tell that things were going to be different with this new no-nonsense sheriff in town.
 
Ara64 said:
I remember the cover of Sports Illustrated the next week. The catch was good and the ref missed it. We should have won that game. It seemed each week something small would happen that kept us from winning. I was one fed up ND fan and lost it doing into halftime at USC. I missed one heck of a comeback. I did get a new television out of my temper tantrum. I'm glad cooler heads prevailed because from '88 through '93 ND played big time college football.
Click to expand...
joel williams
 
echowaker said:
you are certainly entitled to your opinion. the luster is certainly off the non playoff bowls.
Click to expand...

The lower tier bowls didn't play for a National title before and they don't now ..... no difference

That is not an opinion .... that's a fact
 
B Kelly has elevated the program .... no doubt .... few want him out .... he's good .... the holes in his coaching acumen cost him elite status

- He refuses to add a short yardage package ... 3rd and 1 often becomes "oh crap" .... adds to struggles inside the red zone (especially inside the 10) .... instead of running it down inferior opponents throats we run jet sweeps to wr's .... a joke

-He still hasn't developed a proven QB ... the whole Rees nightmare .... finally it looks like ND possibly might be over this one with Zaire and Kizer (in year 6-7) ..... something tells me he will screw this up juggling 2 QB's .... Zaire should start .... he won the job when both were healthy .... suddenly he's worse .... ??? .... we'll see .... Kizer looked great at times but not so much the better the other team was .... He looked awful for 3 qtrs. against Clemson and not very good against Ohio St (suddenly had happy feet)

-Really .... he has never been hands on with the defense ... it shouldn't be necessary all the time but when something is wrong ... you're the damn head coach help fix it

- Special teams (a strength for Holtz - he dedicated time to it) ... last year we were better but I don't know why it took 6-7 years to do more than find someone who could at best catch a punt and not fumble it

- refuses to defer when winning coin toss .... again stupid .... making worse possible option in 2nd half possible vs impossible ... being behind and kicking off

Kelly has an ego problem where he ignores the obvious because in his mind he knows more than everyone else .... then he gets exposed on the big stage

Kelly is close to putting it all together ... if he would just get out of the way and let the last pieces to fall into place .... and for god's sake install a short yardage package and run it down their damn throat sometime .... you have one of the toughest O-lines in the country .... use them accordingly
 
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Ara64 said:
Winning any bowl game is important because it provides momentum heading into NSD and spring ball. The schools play in them because they are important, even if the some fans can't see the big picture (15 extra practices).
Click to expand...

I agree. The Irish lost the Orange bowl to Johnny Rodgers and Nebraska 40 to 6 in 72 and then went on to beat Alabama in the Sugar bowl in 73 and win a National Championship.
The Irish have a bad taste in their mouth from the Ohio State lost and will be very hungry headed into this season.
 
Ara64 said:
Winning any bowl game is important because it provides momentum heading into NSD and spring ball. The schools play in them because they are important, even if the some fans can't see the big picture (15 extra practices).
Click to expand...
Exactly!
 
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