OK..moving away for the Meyer topic... and back to the 5-stars
Believe me, no one on this site is bigger ND supporter than me. No matter what happens, I will always live and die with this team. I have deep connections that cause me to be blessed and cursed by the Irish.
The simple reality is that 'YES' we can compete and be in the TOP 10-15 every year.
However, we will not be able to compete regularly in the TOP 4.
We might be able to win on a given day, but if we play the TOP 4 teams 10 times, we will lose 70-80% of those games. To improve the odds, we would have to play perfectly and the other teams would need to turn it over the ball 2-3x and have an off day overall.
This is not a slight on our program or Kelly.
It's simple logic based on the some of the points mentioned in this thread.
AZIrish69 is dead on with his post in the previous thread. Getting away from the 5-star players, there are 300-380 4-star players every year. Yes, ND gets 8-12 of them every year, but the difference between the TOP 50 4-star kids and the lower 150 is significant. These top teams are not only getting 3-5 5-star players each year, but they are also getting 6-8 of the next 100 best 4-star players.
It's simple math. Look at Clemson and LSU's classes for 2020. They already have five and four 5-stars committed out of the 27 total 5-stars in the country. Just 2 teams have 33% of the total available, and they are not finished yet.
Let's say both those schools average 4-5 5-star players per year. That means that basically their starting 22 could have possibly 50% of their starting team made up of 5-stars and the rest would be high 4 stars..
5 -star kids that have been projected to have high chance to go pro. These are not developmental kids, these are the stud top 1% of the 300,000 high school football players in the country each year. These are STUDS, almost can't miss kids. A tiny % of you have ever seen a player like this in high school. If there is a 5-star in your area, go watch them play the a game. It is man verse boys.
For those who need statistics from 2018:
Here’s the odds for one of the 300,000 football playing seniors to earn a star ranking using class of 2018 data from Rivals,
Just like the pros are made up of less than the TOP 1% of college players,
These 5-stars are the same elite talent at 17-18 yrs old. Think of them as the HIGH SCHOOL Pros.
I pray for luck and timing every year for the Irish. I remember watching a phenomenal player near my home back a few years ago.
He was a linemen who simply dominated a game I watch in which his team lost. He was Junior at the time, I said to myself, ND needs this kid. Guess what what, they got him. Quentin Nelson How did he work out for us? He was a 5-star. Think about if we had 10 more 5-stars on the field like him. Well, that is Clemson/Alabama, Georgia. LSU currently.
I'm not saying 5-stars are the only answer. Look at our one 5-star-(D. Hayes). Really solid player, but he has not lived up to 5-star levels yet due to injuries and simply not living up to potential yet. Maybe next year he will. Give me twenty 5-star guys like him on my current team of 85 players though, and I'll take my chances
Go Irish!
Believe me, no one on this site is bigger ND supporter than me. No matter what happens, I will always live and die with this team. I have deep connections that cause me to be blessed and cursed by the Irish.
The simple reality is that 'YES' we can compete and be in the TOP 10-15 every year.
However, we will not be able to compete regularly in the TOP 4.
We might be able to win on a given day, but if we play the TOP 4 teams 10 times, we will lose 70-80% of those games. To improve the odds, we would have to play perfectly and the other teams would need to turn it over the ball 2-3x and have an off day overall.
This is not a slight on our program or Kelly.
It's simple logic based on the some of the points mentioned in this thread.
AZIrish69 is dead on with his post in the previous thread. Getting away from the 5-star players, there are 300-380 4-star players every year. Yes, ND gets 8-12 of them every year, but the difference between the TOP 50 4-star kids and the lower 150 is significant. These top teams are not only getting 3-5 5-star players each year, but they are also getting 6-8 of the next 100 best 4-star players.
It's simple math. Look at Clemson and LSU's classes for 2020. They already have five and four 5-stars committed out of the 27 total 5-stars in the country. Just 2 teams have 33% of the total available, and they are not finished yet.
Let's say both those schools average 4-5 5-star players per year. That means that basically their starting 22 could have possibly 50% of their starting team made up of 5-stars and the rest would be high 4 stars..
5 -star kids that have been projected to have high chance to go pro. These are not developmental kids, these are the stud top 1% of the 300,000 high school football players in the country each year. These are STUDS, almost can't miss kids. A tiny % of you have ever seen a player like this in high school. If there is a 5-star in your area, go watch them play the a game. It is man verse boys.
For those who need statistics from 2018:
Here’s the odds for one of the 300,000 football playing seniors to earn a star ranking using class of 2018 data from Rivals,
- 30 five-stars, or 0.01 percent of the class
- 380 four-stars, or 0.13 percent of the class
- 1,328 three-stars, or 0.44 percent of the class
- 1,859 two-stars, or 0.62 percent of the class
- 296,403 unrated, or 98.88 percent of the class
Just like the pros are made up of less than the TOP 1% of college players,
These 5-stars are the same elite talent at 17-18 yrs old. Think of them as the HIGH SCHOOL Pros.
I pray for luck and timing every year for the Irish. I remember watching a phenomenal player near my home back a few years ago.
He was a linemen who simply dominated a game I watch in which his team lost. He was Junior at the time, I said to myself, ND needs this kid. Guess what what, they got him. Quentin Nelson How did he work out for us? He was a 5-star. Think about if we had 10 more 5-stars on the field like him. Well, that is Clemson/Alabama, Georgia. LSU currently.
I'm not saying 5-stars are the only answer. Look at our one 5-star-(D. Hayes). Really solid player, but he has not lived up to 5-star levels yet due to injuries and simply not living up to potential yet. Maybe next year he will. Give me twenty 5-star guys like him on my current team of 85 players though, and I'll take my chances
Go Irish!
