The difference so far is a 5 star freshman quarterback and a 5 star freshman wide receiver outplaying Notre Dame's junior and senior laden secondary. Ian has to make some plays to keep up and battle here in the 2nd half.
ND Needs To Rise To The Occasion
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You put too much emphasis in 5 star freshmen QB and WR ripping the ND secondary. The scheme relative to pressure is something that you are not mentioning. It doesn't matter 2 to 5 star whatever, if the pressure and scheme isn't there.....a 3 star QB and WR will make plays on any secondary. Given the right play call on the defense.
The difference between a 5 star quarterback and 5 star receivers is that they make the type of elite frozen rope throws that Trevor Lawrence made against us and they catch the kind of passes that Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross caught in that game (and against Alabama)… Where as by comparison, Ian Book (2 years ahead of Trevor Lawrence) can't make some of those throws, or doesn't see them when they are open.
Scheme is important. Absolutely. But having the talent to run a fairly simple scheme and just run by people, jump over top of them and have a quarterback throw lightning bolts 25-30 yards down the field is the much easier path to success and it tends to hold up better over a 14-15 game schedule. Scheme will let you down at some point when you come up against an equal or better coordinator on the other side of the field (which is what happened when Long went up against Venables). Elite players allow you to break that stalemate or overcome any deficiency you have there.
We need 5* talent. Simple as that. Name a NC winner without it. Exactly. Plan on 10-2
Its not just "five star talent" it's talent improvement in general.
ND is not only missing on 5 star, they are missing on high 4 star talent as well. It's like ND stops recruiting anybody with any high recruiting profile. The guys with 40+ offers from coast to coast are immediately excluded from NDs target profile it seems (unless that player is the type that highly favors ND from the outset).
ND, under Brian Kelly does EXTREMELY well with regionally rated 4 star recruits that make up the mid and low 4 star category. Fans think "hey look at all these four star players on our roster" but they don't understand that many of them are the lowest tier 4 star recruits out there.
I think Brian Kelly got burned with high profile recruits early in his ND tenure and then made it a policy to not even bother with them anymore. It's like any recruit that is going to require A TON of 'recruiting' is omitted from consideration at ND these days. I'm talking about recruits who largely make up the top 25/top 50/top 100.
As a result, there's a MUCH bigger talent disadvantage at ND than most people want to believe -- and that goes for even NDs biggest recruiting critics on this forum. It isn't just "get a few five star LOIs per class" .. it's a good 5-10 players with national profiles PER CLASS that ND needs to sign to neutralize the massive talent gap.
Clemson does not recruit in the first tier (they recruit in a tier above ND but a tier below the powerhouses in college football). Clemson is doing more with their talent than anybody else in the country -- it's probably their talent on their coaching staff. They retain their employees/assistants and started the trend of paying assistant coaches million dollar+ contracts. Clemson's model isn't easily replicatable. They are an exception to the rule.
For the reason above, ND probably won't be able to have the same success as Clemson by matching them in terms of talent rankings. It's my opinion that ND needs to neutralize the talent gap with the first tier entirely in order to win another national championship (at least in our lifetime).
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As an example (related to my previous post in this thread): ND doesn't have a single player in the composite top 100 in this 2019 class. Last year they had 4 i think (mostly in the 70-100 range).
In their last three full cycles now (2017-2019), ND has a total of 7 players rated in the composite top 100. Most of them offensive linemen/TE.
At a program like Alabama, Georgia, OSU, USC, Texas A&M, etc. they get 5-15 of these top 100 recruits per class. And many of those players are in the top 25/top 50 etc.
Moreover, NDs last recruit in the composite top 30 was Tommy Kraemer back in 2016 (which was nearly FOUR full cycles ago). And their last composite five star recruit, was Jaylon Smith and Max Redfield back in 2013 (nearly SEVEN full cycles ago). The last time ND signed a composite 5 star recruit was back when the very first The Hunger Games movie premiered.
At any reasonable massively wealthy organization, this kind of incompetence would be costing leadership their job. You don't stay a revenue leader in a cut throat multi billion dollar industry forever by being merely above average. All of these misses on the recruiting trail/failures on the football field are costing ND future dollars/prestige/power in college football down the road.
In their last three full cycles now (2017-2019), ND has a total of 7 players rated in the composite top 100. Most of them offensive linemen/TE.
At a program like Alabama, Georgia, OSU, USC, Texas A&M, etc. they get 5-15 of these top 100 recruits per class. And many of those players are in the top 25/top 50 etc.
Moreover, NDs last recruit in the composite top 30 was Tommy Kraemer back in 2016 (which was nearly FOUR full cycles ago). And their last composite five star recruit, was Jaylon Smith and Max Redfield back in 2013 (nearly SEVEN full cycles ago). The last time ND signed a composite 5 star recruit was back when the very first The Hunger Games movie premiered.
At any reasonable massively wealthy organization, this kind of incompetence would be costing leadership their job. You don't stay a revenue leader in a cut throat multi billion dollar industry forever by being merely above average. All of these misses on the recruiting trail/failures on the football field are costing ND future dollars/prestige/power in college football down the road.
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I agree. There are a lot of variables that go into matching. On the WR side, there is a need for more speed that can take the roof off of the DB's. That opens everything up. Probably one to 3 5 stars on both sides of the ball is needed.
1-3 five star recruits per class on both sides of the ball, i agree. But under Brian Kelly, signing even just ONE five star recruit per DECADE is a challenge.
But if you follow the ND media/analysts (people with press passes that are paid to educate the public about these type of issues) this goes virtually unspoken about. It's all brushed under the rug like it's no big deal.
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I agree there is a need on all phases of the game, defense, offense and specials to have 1 to 3 guys that are 5 stars. More the better. However, like you said, the coaches need to be the same.
I sense Dabo loves and cares for his coaches, and players. Who doesn't want to work with that kind of guy. Everyone wants that kind of leadership. In this business where coaches are leaving for the big cash, these players don't trust them.
So it is a combination of things. Quality players and quality coaches and a head coach that knows how positively influence everyone by loving them from a Christ center approach. Love God and Love your fellow man. I want that for my son to play for that type of program.
I am telling you...those big plays that Clemson made on the defense was not based on ND not able to compete.... it's execution. It's scheme, coaches, players that execute. No matter the talent. Example: If the QB was hit a few more times from pressure the ball is not coming out the same way. My personal philosophy still remains. Yeah I get it. 1 to 3-5 stars is always good. But ND's defense played better than Alabama. And you know that. And......they have more 5 star athletes than ND. Don't get twisted.
It’s not brushed under the rug. It’s just that at a school like ND, you need to show you are a consistent winner first before you can attract the elite players. Why would the elite players come to ND? There’s a reason 80% of the elite players go to 3-4 schools, because they win. If we can get another 10+ win season, we will be in better position to get those elite players. You have to walk before you run.
Also, college football is now a regional sport. All of the talented teams are in the South. The Northern schools have no chance. Ohio St is the only school with a shot. All of the elite talent comes from the South so ND is at a distinct disadvantage from a geography standpoint. Given all of this, I think BK has done really well with the cards stacked against him in today’s landscape.
I agree with most of this post except for the logic in the final couple sentences. You have to evaluate a team's play based on more than the results of a single game.
ND had an excellent defense in 2018, which has been the better recruited side of the program the last several years, so this doesn't surprise me. But Alabama's defense rated better than ND on the season as a whole, and it isn't really close.
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Tell that to Kirby Smart, Jimbo Fisher, and even Tom Herman. These guys immediately impacted/improved the recruiting results upon their arrival at their respective schools and now these programs are recruiting the type of talent that typically leads to national championships. And these are just recent examples of coaches going to programs and immediately having a big impact on the type of talent they are acquiring.
Same could be said about the buzz Charlie Weis brought to Notre Dame upon his hire. He immediately started pulling in five star/top 5 classes. He was a bad coach that couldn't leverage the talent, but there was buzz about the superbowl winning new england patriots tom brady coaching Charlie Weis that resulted in big time talent coming to ND.
Um, where are Georgia, Texas and Texas A&M located? The talent is in their backyard. Not the same. Why would an elite prospect come up north to ND, have to work his butt off in the classroom if he just wants to leave in 3 years? It is so much easier to go to Georgia, take BS classes and major in football.
I'm not disputing that other programs are engineered to aid the development of football careers better than current ND, which makes those other programs more attractive for aspiring NFL talents. But Ohio State and Michigan are both in the midwest and both are recruiting significantly better talent than ND is. And you can't just dismiss OSU as "oh it's OSU they just get talent regardless" .. because the same exact thing used to be said about Notre Dame.
Ohio St gets top recruits because they had a legendary head coach. Michigan is not recruiting “significantly” better than ND. Are you actually saying you would rather have Michigan’s on field results over ND’s the last couple of years? What happened to 5 star Aubrey Solomon? He got home sick and went back down south. Geography is the main reason ND and most schools up north cannot compete with the South. The change in the way Football is played is the main issue. Football is wide open now, catered to speed guys. When football was played more in a phone booth, the north had more of a chance because slower, power prospects from the north were still valued....not anymore.
With OSU I agree, Michigan is absolutely not. Just because they got a 5* doesn't mean they have a better class than Notre Dame this year. Notre Dame will be better than them on both lines next year.
I know you won't agree, but it's just as much about the coaching as it is about the recruiting.
Michigan has the 8th ranked class in 247 composite rankings this year compared to NDs 15th ranked class. They also had a talent composite ranking in 2018 that ranked 8th to NDs 10th. Maybe the use of the word "significant" is overstated on my part (at least in relation to Michigan's case), but Michigan is still out recruiting ND right now and has been dating back to the Brady Hoke era.
As for the bolded, I think coaching is extremely important especially as it relates to identifying talent, developing it, etc.
My stance is that in ANY organization (football or otherwise) you are only as good as the talent in your organization, and coaching in college football has a REALLY big impact on that. But having better/more raw material to work with in the first place (e.g. recruiting talent and securing talent to your program) is also extremely important (if not more so).
Michigan had the 8th ranked composite class in 2018? I thought they had a down year and was in the 20s? They were #24 on Rivals.
I'm referring to their 'team talent composite' ranking not their class ranking.
The team talent composite which is here: https://247sports.com/Season/2018-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/ is a ranking of all of the talent on the roster based on the collective recruiting ratings of all players.
e.g. it's a summation of the previous 4-5 recruiting cycles on the roster from 1-85. Michigan this season ranked 8th in that ranking. ND ranked 10th.
As for recruiting class rankings in the 2019 class (which signs early next month), Michigan ranks 8th to NDs 15th.
Ah, ok, that makes more sense. So 8th versus 10th is basically the same.
For what it’s worth, I agree ND needs an infusion of elite talent, I just don’t think it’s realistic to get that talent in today’s college landscape. Think about this, in the last 20 years, only 1 northern school has won the Natty, Ohio St in 2002 and 2014, that’s it! Only 4 northern schools has even played for the Natty.....OSU, ND, Oregon and Nebraska. That’s it! Like I said, college football is a regional sport now so we all better readjust our expectations.
It isn't the same (even just 1 placement difference when referring to all 85 players on a roster is a difference) but "significantly" was the wrong choice of words to use on my part when describing that difference.
There's also big tier differences among the top 10 teams in composite talent ranking. Despite NDs composite talent being ranked 10th, the teams ranked in the 3-4 range are miles away from ND right now. Then there's another tier entirely in the 5-7 range. In fact, ND is closer to the teams grouped in the 10-15th range than the teams closer to the 5-7 range (which i would say Michigan is).
I guess my point is that we shouldn't make light of the difference between ND and Michigan's talent despite it not being a REALLY big one.
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I disagree. The difference between ND and Michigan is minimal, if any. That is proven by the on field results. As mentioned in this thread, raw talent is just one part of the equation. Coaching and development are the others. Even if you think Michigan has better raw talent than ND, it still wouldn’t be enough to compete with the South. Again, I completely agree there is a talent gap and ND needs more elite talent, mostly on offense. My main point is that it is not realistic for ND to recruit at the top 3 level.
Now, I still think ND can win and the way to do that is to land a difference making QB, WR and RB. When Clemson won in 2016, their talent was comparable to what ND has now. The difference was that they had D Watson at QB and Mike Williams at WR.
The fact remains, we have no conference and basically no championship to play for because we can’t recruit at an elite level. Then, I ask you, what’s the purpose of the season?
So ND can win a national title despite not having the level of talent that national title winning teams have and your evidence is Clemson's Deshaun Watson one of the best players in college football in the last 10 years?
There are thousands of players in college football every year at the FBS level alone. Finding the next Deshaun Watson or Cam Newton or Vince Taylor is about as likely as ND finding the next Ross Browner. I guess it can happen but odds are massively against it happening.
You have a much better chance of winning a national title by neutralizing the talent advantage with the teams who are dominating college football right now. And even when you have a roster loaded with that kind of talent you still have to beat those teams who recruit just as good as you.
I didn’t say it is reasonable to find the next D Watson. I know it is unlikely. I just said that is ND’s best chance at winning a Natty in today’s college landscape. I just don’t think ND can recruit to the level of the south for all the reasons stated previously. Can ND recruit in that 5-7 range? Yes I believe so. But that still might not be enough unless you have a legit 1st round talent at QB.
But its not just the south. Michigan is close to the 5th-7th range. OSU is one of the most talented teams in the country (in fact they were #1 in that team talent composite ranking in 2018).
Look we are largely in agreement on this discussion but putting your hands up in the air and saying "thats just how it is in the non south" is the same attitude that keeps ND administrators from making changes, being ambitious, and trying to find solutions.
I believe 100% that if Urban Meyer, Jimbo Fisher, Kirby Smart, or Nick Saban came to South Bend IN tomorrow, they would immediately have ND in contention for perennial top 5 classes again. There are coaches out there who can just flat out recruit and are every bit as good as Brian Kelly is as it relates to running a program and you have to find that next coach by taking chances, taking risks, and investing in that possibility.
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How is Michigan close to the 5-7 range? Based on the rankings you provided, Michigan is closer to ND at 10 than they are to LSU at 7, just 1 spot ahead of them. I’ve said Ohio St is where they are at because of a legendary head coach. Would Kirby, Fisher or Saban help get ND there in terms of recruiting? Possibly. But the bigger question is, would those established coaches even come to ND knowing the recruiting restrictions? I say no. So the best bet is to find the next Dabo, someone who is not yet established. I agree recruiting more elite athletes is the only way to win and I’d like to see ND do what it takes to get that accomplished, even if it means lowering standards for 5 elite kids each cycle. I just don’t have faith ND will do it.
A great question for the board is why some here feel a team with really good players should be able to "Bone Up" and beat teams of really great players?
It's like saying Arizona would beat Kansas City for the Super Bowl win!
It's like saying Arizona would beat Kansas City for the Super Bowl win!
AZ was poorly coached and didnt have the players to compete due to poor management. Similar to ND. AZ now has a new coach.
I'm just pumped that our Irish are in contention for playoff spots. ESPN published a list of their top 10 OOC games for next season and Notre Dame plays in 2 of the top 4 games (@Georgia and @Michigan).
I can live with the fact that until ND gets a few more elite players at key positions and some coaching upgrades, they're unlikely to win a playoff game against one of the very best teams... You have to walk before you can run. 22-4 over the past 2 years has ND starting to jog and recruits that previously hadn't been paying attention are at least now listening. The next step is to land a few top guys, while continuing to recruit the talent and depth ND is currently bringing in. That will bolster ND's classes from where they sit currently 11th-15th, and put them up in the 5th-9th range, which is about the best I think ND is going to be able to recruit REGULARLY in the current college football landscape.
Land and develop guys that are interested such as...
Chris Tyree
Jordon Johnson
Jalen McMillan
Paris Johnson
Bryn Tucker
Rylie Mills
AJ Henning
Those are the type of guys that help you go from making it to a playoff game, to making that game competitive when you get there.
