ND 12th Ranked Schedule & other projections

[NDAFArly]

First off, don't shoot the messenger.
Second, if you don't like Phil Steele then ignore this thread.
Third, this is just info, not a bash the program/coaches thread.

According to Phil Steele ND has the 12th toughest schedule in 2017 (p 27). This is based off numerous rankings & factors.

They also have the 12th ranked schedule according to opponents 2016 win % (p 26).
ND had the 21st ranked schedule last year.

Other musings from Phil Steele:

ND ranked 16th in Power Poll (how good you are, not where you will finish).
Ranked 19th on preseason poll (where you will finish).
ND ranked #1 Most improved team
ND +5 in his Market Indicator

Nelson 1st Team AA
McGlinchey 2nd Team AA
St. Brown 4th Team AA
Morgan 4th Team AA

Unit Rankings:

QB 53rd
RB 10th
WR 3rd (includes TE)
OL 6th
DL 41st
LB 19th
DB 45th
ST 47th

ND ranked #1 for 2016 Net Close Losses with 5 (6 losses, 1 win).

Ranking top 15 (and bottom 5) units.
ND ranked 15th for projected total defense.
ND ranked 9th for projected pass defense.

Projects ND to score 34.3 ppg.
Projects ND allows 24.0 ppg.

Predicts 9-3 & Taxslayer Bowl vs Louisville

 

[twalsh]

ND ranked #1 for 2016 Net Close Losses with 5 (6 losses, 1 win).

We really went 1-7 in games decided by one score (8 pts) or less. If 1-6 was #1 in the country, I guess 1-7 would have been too.

A really amazing stat. If you are good enough, in relation to your opponents, to be in 8 close games, just the law of averages should have you winning more than one of them.

 

[NDAFArly]

We really went 1-7 in games decided by one score (8 pts) or less. If 1-6 was #1 in the country, I guess 1-7 would have been too.

A really amazing stat. If you are good enough, in relation to your opponents, to be in 8 close games, just the law of averages should have you winning more than one of them.

He uses "a TD or closer...includes or excludes late, misleading score."
So that is probably why he has 1-6 instead of 1-7?

 

[stu4don]

new s&t coaches will improve the close losses stats -- and the fact that we will be a much older team this year (we played a lot of freshman last year.)

 

[Duo]

First off, don't shoot the messenger.
Second, if you don't like Phil Steele then ignore this thread.
Third, this is just info, not a bash the program/coaches thread.

According to Phil Steele ND has the 12th toughest schedule in 2017 (p 27). This is based off numerous rankings & factors.

They also have the 12th ranked schedule according to opponents 2016 win % (p 26).
ND had the 21st ranked schedule last year.

Other musings from Phil Steele:

ND ranked 16th in Power Poll (how good you are, not where you will finish).
Ranked 19th on preseason poll (where you will finish).
ND ranked #1 Most improved team
ND +5 in his Market Indicator

Nelson 1st Team AA
McGlinchey 2nd Team AA
St. Brown 4th Team AA
Morgan 4th Team AA

Unit Rankings:

QB 53rd
RB 10th
WR 3rd (includes TE)
OL 6th
DL 41st
LB 19th
DB 45th
ST 47th

ND ranked #1 for 2016 Net Close Losses with 5 (6 losses, 1 win).

Ranking top 15 (and bottom 5) units.
ND ranked 15th for projected total defense.
ND ranked 9th for projected pass defense.

Projects ND to score 34.3 ppg.
Projects ND allows 24.0 ppg.

Predicts 9-3 & Taxslayer Bowl vs Louisville

If one assumes that Phil thinks ND will lose to the three opponents with the toughest odds then the losses would be to -11 Stanford, -8 Miami and -6.5 USC. Again, assuming that is the case that means Phil is predicting ND will beat teams like Georgia, at MSU, at UNC, at BC and all the others. In other words, Phil is predicting ND will not slip up even once and will win all games other than those three with no surprises. Is that likely? (for ND or any team in a rebuilding mode?)

 

[TXNDFan88]

Speaking of stats - ND lost the VT game after leading by three scores, outrushing their opponent, and winning the TO battle at home. How many times has a team lost when those stats were in their favor? Probably once.

 

[NDAFArly]

If one assumes that Phil thinks ND will lose to the three opponents with the toughest odds then the losses would be to -11 Stanford, -8 Miami and -6.5 USC. Again, assuming that is the case that means Phil is predicting ND will beat teams like Georgia, at MSU, at UNC, at BC and all the others. In other words, Phil is predicting ND will not slip up even once and will win all games other than those three with no surprises. Is that likely? (for ND or any team in a rebuilding mode?)

He uses his own predictors, I believe 9 different computer simulations, after adding in his own data, to predict outcomes.
So it doesn't mean those are the three teams at all. In the 9 different simulations he gets different results & combines them for his predictions using his own formula, which seems to be pretty accurate somehow?

 

[twalsh]

If one assumes that Phil thinks ND will lose to the three opponents with the toughest odds then the losses would be to -11 Stanford, -8 Miami and -6.5 USC. Again, assuming that is the case that means Phil is predicting ND will beat teams like Georgia, at MSU, at UNC, at BC and all the others. In other words, Phil is predicting ND will not slip up even once and will win all games other than those three with no surprises. Is that likely? (for ND or any team in a rebuilding mode?)

The model probably understands the limitation of the model. Assume we win one of the games in which we are the underdog, and lose one of the games in which we are the favorite.

 

[dagimpper1]

First off, don't shoot the messenger.
Second, if you don't like Phil Steele then ignore this thread.
Third, this is just info, not a bash the program/coaches thread.

According to Phil Steele ND has the 12th toughest schedule in 2017 (p 27). This is based off numerous rankings & factors.

They also have the 12th ranked schedule according to opponents 2016 win % (p 26).
ND had the 21st ranked schedule last year.

Other musings from Phil Steele:

ND ranked 16th in Power Poll (how good you are, not where you will finish).
Ranked 19th on preseason poll (where you will finish).
ND ranked #1 Most improved team
ND +5 in his Market Indicator

Nelson 1st Team AA
McGlinchey 2nd Team AA
St. Brown 4th Team AA
Morgan 4th Team AA

Unit Rankings:

QB 53rd
RB 10th
WR 3rd (includes TE)
OL 6th
DL 41st
LB 19th
DB 45th
ST 47th

ND ranked #1 for 2016 Net Close Losses with 5 (6 losses, 1 win).

Ranking top 15 (and bottom 5) units.
ND ranked 15th for projected total defense.
ND ranked 9th for projected pass defense.

Projects ND to score 34.3 ppg.
Projects ND allows 24.0 ppg.

Predicts 9-3 & Taxslayer Bowl vs Louisville

Phil Steele to my recollection has always been more then fair to ND
So I have no problem with his predictions. I'm not that optimistic

 

[deadirishpoet]

First off, don't shoot the messenger.
Second, if you don't like Phil Steele then ignore this thread.
Third, this is just info, not a bash the program/coaches thread.

According to Phil Steele ND has the 12th toughest schedule in 2017 (p 27). This is based off numerous rankings & factors.

They also have the 12th ranked schedule according to opponents 2016 win % (p 26).
ND had the 21st ranked schedule last year.

Other musings from Phil Steele:

ND ranked 16th in Power Poll (how good you are, not where you will finish).
Ranked 19th on preseason poll (where you will finish).
ND ranked #1 Most improved team
ND +5 in his Market Indicator

Nelson 1st Team AA
McGlinchey 2nd Team AA
St. Brown 4th Team AA
Morgan 4th Team AA

Unit Rankings:

QB 53rd
RB 10th
WR 3rd (includes TE)
OL 6th
DL 41st
LB 19th
DB 45th
ST 47th

ND ranked #1 for 2016 Net Close Losses with 5 (6 losses, 1 win).

Ranking top 15 (and bottom 5) units.
ND ranked 15th for projected total defense.
ND ranked 9th for projected pass defense.

Projects ND to score 34.3 ppg.
Projects ND allows 24.0 ppg.

Predicts 9-3 & Taxslayer Bowl vs Louisville

I like Phil Steele a lot though preseason rankings usually differ from the final season we'll see how it plays out