Prior to the game I had no doubt that ND was going to win. I just thought that this was definitely Kelly and Crew’s time to breakthrough at Stanford and take that next big step forward. What happened next I can only refer to as a disaster. To have the wheels fall off in the 4th quarter was reminiscent of the game 2 years ago where Kevin Hogan couldn’t seem to miss (17 of 21 and 4TDs).
I wanted to sit on this game for a bit before writing anything. It was tough to put some of these thoughts in this post, but not everything can be positive. I really love ND in all sports, particularly football, so it really hurts to write some things down, but the truth is this was just another big game on the road where the team didn’t perform to it’s ability. Certain parts performed well, others not so well.
People always say that ND fans are delusional about their place in college football. I may be a bit delusional about where ND should be, however. I think an institution as fine as ND should be able to field a championship caliber team in every sport. Someday, I think they will.
Well Worth the Read- Too long too quote here, but an excellent discussion by @mfischer21 (https://notredame.forums.rivals.com/threads/a-few-things-that-stood-out-from-yesterdays-game.118171/)
November Swoons- It’s been kind of the norm here for the past several years. 2014, 7-1 after a tough Navy game on Nov. 1 and the heels come off to finish at 8-5. 2015, 10-1 after a tough BC game before the wheels come off at Stanford as mentioned above to finish 10-3. 2016 debacle, lost 3 of 4 November games. This year we’re 8-1 after a tough Wake Forest game and things start to unravel, losing 2 of 3, the one win being an escape from Navy. At least this year we can’t say it was a lackluster S&T program. This has been a lack of preparedness (T.H. Fehrenbach again) and it always leads to defeat.
QB Position- QB is a passing position, no matter how athletic you are or how good of a runner you are, you need to an effective passer. Not elite, but effective. You have to be able to consistently make the easy throws, screens, throws to the flats, quick outs, etc. Wimbush hasn’t been able to do that, it has doomed this team. Geek Stat: BW has a passing percentage of under 50%. That’s not going to get it done. Sure, there’ll always be an outlier, but you have to be an effective passer to win. Here’s your proof… A look at the NCAA passing percentage leaders will give you some idea of how bad that is (http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/individual/755). Ultimate Geek Stats- Of the Top 50 on that list all have a completion percentage greater than 60%. Of the top 20 teams, the only teams not to have their QB in the Top 50 are Miami (Rosier at 55.%), Michigan State (Lewerke 58,8%), LSU (Etling, just missed at 60.3%), Northwestern (Northwestern, Thorson, just missed at 60.6%), and ND (Wimbush, 49.8%). Read those numbers and let that one sink in.
BK and Quarterbacks- I can’t remember if it was Tony Pike or Zach Collaros that said it, but one of BK’s former QB’s said when he came to ND, essentially, when Kelly gets his kind of QB, he’s going to win the Heisman. Strong praise. The results are a different story. BK’s QBs seem to have a regressive learning curve. Even when the statistics improve, the performance seems to drop off (Golson). The only one that really seemed to improve was the guy everyone loves to hate, Tommy Rees. Maybe BK’s putting too much pressure on them or maybe the playbook is to complex, but you should really expect your QB to improve as they become more experienced. Not here they don’t.
That said… Wimbush- He’s really done a better job in the pocket as the year went on, but that’s about it. He holds on to the ball too long, he locks in on his receivers, and he’s indecisive on when to release the ball to the receiver he’s already decided on. After his INTs on Saturday the replays looking upfield at Wimbush showed a guy that looked completely befuddled. His eyes were as big as saucers and he looked… nervous. I hope he can make the jump to the next level over the next year, but I’m not optimistic.
However… Post-Game Post of the Game- [On Wimbush]
For Comparison- ND’s 3 losses this year have come against Jake Fromm (62.0%), a true freshman; Malik Rosier (55.3%), a junior with 61 pass attempts over the past 2 years; and KJ Costello (61.1%), a sophomore making his 5th start. As Red Sox fans used to bemoan, “Why can’t we get guys like that?”
ABC=ESPN- They both suck. ND should tell whomever schedules these things that they have a national TV contract with NBC and that’s who they’re going with. Absolutely dreadful. BTW, speaking of dreadful, who dressed Herbie? Horrible color combo and the suit jacket was at one size too small.
Empty Seats- Get over this. These posts about Stanford playing before an empty stadium are ridiculous. Does it really matter if they kick ND’s ass before an empty stadium or a full one? One this has become painfully obvious to me. David Shaw can beat ND at Stanford in a 100 yard broom closet. It doesn’t matter ho many witnesses there are to the crime.
Adams- I’ve said before and I’ll say it again, he looks like he’s lost a step. The run plays were slow to develop in general, but he looked tentative, and he didn’t hit the holes while they were open. They can say all they want that he’s healthy, but my eyes tell me he’s a tad slower.
Dexter Williams- If you’re going to commit this much to the run (and it seems you have to, see above) then they should be using him more. His shortcomings in pass protection couldn’t have made Saturday’s performance much worse.
It was Over When- A combination of events. Wimbush threw his first interception which gave Stanford the ball at the 29 yard line. They quickly score a TD and Sanders fumbles the ensuing kickoff giving Stanford the ball at the ND 18 yard line. Now Stanford resorts to the power football we’re used to seeing from them. They burned over 2 minutes off the clock going those 18 yards with a series of runs. The Fat Lady was singing. Of course it didn’t help that Wimbush was intercepted again on the next possession.
WTF Geek Stats- ND had more rushing yards and more total yards than Stanford and still lost. I can’t recall the last time that happened. Anyone?
Defense- Overall, not bad, but the secondary was torched for big plays and gave up 4 TDs. It was painful to watch. Coney had a great game and has been disruptive all year. There has been a great turnaround for this defense and I would expect it to continue into next year. When all was said and done, this game was decided by turnovers.
Playcalling- Others have said that they didn’t have an issue with the playcalling. I’m not of that mindset. To continually run up the middle with the same running back and the same results was puzzling to say the least. He said it best:
Posts of the Game-
Sense of Urgency- There was none in that 4th quarter. It seemed like a dejected team with a dejected coaching staff. After Wimbush left the game with an injury and they brought in Book he seemed to bring some life to the team. Bringing Wimbush back in at that point was a big mistake IMO. That’s not a call to replace QBs moving forward, just a situational point. Wimbush was injured and he was ineffective at that point. Try something different.
Moving Forward- Brian Kelly is definitely coming back next year, of this I’m sure. What I’m not sure of is whether or not he can improve past what he’s already done. I think the high water mark for him came in 2012 and he hasn’t been able to build on that success. Most are familiar with the 2010 quote where Kelly and Swarbrick are playing Stanford and Kelly says to Jack, “that’ll be us in 2 years.” 7 years later, we’re still playing catchup.
Private Message of the Game- @cheta41 may have said it best, “I give up. Kelly and Wimbush aren't the answers...”
For those clamoring for a coaching change, you don’t want yesterday’s or even today’s good coach. You need to try and identify the next big thing and get him here to ND. You want to get the next Urban Meyer before others know who he is, and that’s no easy task.
Bowl Game- One more game to play, folks. Hopefully these guys can get some rest and go out on a high note and give the team something to build on moving forward.
Overall, I think this season was a success marked by serious turnaround in necessary areas, specifically defense and S&C. However, it will always be one of those “what if?” years. I wonder how things may have been had Kizer stayed on for this year.
Have a great, and safe, holiday everyone. I’ll be cheering with you during the bowl game!
I wanted to sit on this game for a bit before writing anything. It was tough to put some of these thoughts in this post, but not everything can be positive. I really love ND in all sports, particularly football, so it really hurts to write some things down, but the truth is this was just another big game on the road where the team didn’t perform to it’s ability. Certain parts performed well, others not so well.
People always say that ND fans are delusional about their place in college football. I may be a bit delusional about where ND should be, however. I think an institution as fine as ND should be able to field a championship caliber team in every sport. Someday, I think they will.
Well Worth the Read- Too long too quote here, but an excellent discussion by @mfischer21 (https://notredame.forums.rivals.com/threads/a-few-things-that-stood-out-from-yesterdays-game.118171/)
November Swoons- It’s been kind of the norm here for the past several years. 2014, 7-1 after a tough Navy game on Nov. 1 and the heels come off to finish at 8-5. 2015, 10-1 after a tough BC game before the wheels come off at Stanford as mentioned above to finish 10-3. 2016 debacle, lost 3 of 4 November games. This year we’re 8-1 after a tough Wake Forest game and things start to unravel, losing 2 of 3, the one win being an escape from Navy. At least this year we can’t say it was a lackluster S&T program. This has been a lack of preparedness (T.H. Fehrenbach again) and it always leads to defeat.
QB Position- QB is a passing position, no matter how athletic you are or how good of a runner you are, you need to an effective passer. Not elite, but effective. You have to be able to consistently make the easy throws, screens, throws to the flats, quick outs, etc. Wimbush hasn’t been able to do that, it has doomed this team. Geek Stat: BW has a passing percentage of under 50%. That’s not going to get it done. Sure, there’ll always be an outlier, but you have to be an effective passer to win. Here’s your proof… A look at the NCAA passing percentage leaders will give you some idea of how bad that is (http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/individual/755). Ultimate Geek Stats- Of the Top 50 on that list all have a completion percentage greater than 60%. Of the top 20 teams, the only teams not to have their QB in the Top 50 are Miami (Rosier at 55.%), Michigan State (Lewerke 58,8%), LSU (Etling, just missed at 60.3%), Northwestern (Northwestern, Thorson, just missed at 60.6%), and ND (Wimbush, 49.8%). Read those numbers and let that one sink in.
BK and Quarterbacks- I can’t remember if it was Tony Pike or Zach Collaros that said it, but one of BK’s former QB’s said when he came to ND, essentially, when Kelly gets his kind of QB, he’s going to win the Heisman. Strong praise. The results are a different story. BK’s QBs seem to have a regressive learning curve. Even when the statistics improve, the performance seems to drop off (Golson). The only one that really seemed to improve was the guy everyone loves to hate, Tommy Rees. Maybe BK’s putting too much pressure on them or maybe the playbook is to complex, but you should really expect your QB to improve as they become more experienced. Not here they don’t.
That said… Wimbush- He’s really done a better job in the pocket as the year went on, but that’s about it. He holds on to the ball too long, he locks in on his receivers, and he’s indecisive on when to release the ball to the receiver he’s already decided on. After his INTs on Saturday the replays looking upfield at Wimbush showed a guy that looked completely befuddled. His eyes were as big as saucers and he looked… nervous. I hope he can make the jump to the next level over the next year, but I’m not optimistic.
However… Post-Game Post of the Game- [On Wimbush]
For Comparison- ND’s 3 losses this year have come against Jake Fromm (62.0%), a true freshman; Malik Rosier (55.3%), a junior with 61 pass attempts over the past 2 years; and KJ Costello (61.1%), a sophomore making his 5th start. As Red Sox fans used to bemoan, “Why can’t we get guys like that?”
ABC=ESPN- They both suck. ND should tell whomever schedules these things that they have a national TV contract with NBC and that’s who they’re going with. Absolutely dreadful. BTW, speaking of dreadful, who dressed Herbie? Horrible color combo and the suit jacket was at one size too small.
Empty Seats- Get over this. These posts about Stanford playing before an empty stadium are ridiculous. Does it really matter if they kick ND’s ass before an empty stadium or a full one? One this has become painfully obvious to me. David Shaw can beat ND at Stanford in a 100 yard broom closet. It doesn’t matter ho many witnesses there are to the crime.
Adams- I’ve said before and I’ll say it again, he looks like he’s lost a step. The run plays were slow to develop in general, but he looked tentative, and he didn’t hit the holes while they were open. They can say all they want that he’s healthy, but my eyes tell me he’s a tad slower.
Dexter Williams- If you’re going to commit this much to the run (and it seems you have to, see above) then they should be using him more. His shortcomings in pass protection couldn’t have made Saturday’s performance much worse.
It was Over When- A combination of events. Wimbush threw his first interception which gave Stanford the ball at the 29 yard line. They quickly score a TD and Sanders fumbles the ensuing kickoff giving Stanford the ball at the ND 18 yard line. Now Stanford resorts to the power football we’re used to seeing from them. They burned over 2 minutes off the clock going those 18 yards with a series of runs. The Fat Lady was singing. Of course it didn’t help that Wimbush was intercepted again on the next possession.
WTF Geek Stats- ND had more rushing yards and more total yards than Stanford and still lost. I can’t recall the last time that happened. Anyone?
Defense- Overall, not bad, but the secondary was torched for big plays and gave up 4 TDs. It was painful to watch. Coney had a great game and has been disruptive all year. There has been a great turnaround for this defense and I would expect it to continue into next year. When all was said and done, this game was decided by turnovers.
Playcalling- Others have said that they didn’t have an issue with the playcalling. I’m not of that mindset. To continually run up the middle with the same running back and the same results was puzzling to say the least. He said it best:
Chip Long's play calling makes me miss BK's play calling
Posts of the Game-
Sense of Urgency- There was none in that 4th quarter. It seemed like a dejected team with a dejected coaching staff. After Wimbush left the game with an injury and they brought in Book he seemed to bring some life to the team. Bringing Wimbush back in at that point was a big mistake IMO. That’s not a call to replace QBs moving forward, just a situational point. Wimbush was injured and he was ineffective at that point. Try something different.
Moving Forward- Brian Kelly is definitely coming back next year, of this I’m sure. What I’m not sure of is whether or not he can improve past what he’s already done. I think the high water mark for him came in 2012 and he hasn’t been able to build on that success. Most are familiar with the 2010 quote where Kelly and Swarbrick are playing Stanford and Kelly says to Jack, “that’ll be us in 2 years.” 7 years later, we’re still playing catchup.
Private Message of the Game- @cheta41 may have said it best, “I give up. Kelly and Wimbush aren't the answers...”
For those clamoring for a coaching change, you don’t want yesterday’s or even today’s good coach. You need to try and identify the next big thing and get him here to ND. You want to get the next Urban Meyer before others know who he is, and that’s no easy task.
Bowl Game- One more game to play, folks. Hopefully these guys can get some rest and go out on a high note and give the team something to build on moving forward.
Overall, I think this season was a success marked by serious turnaround in necessary areas, specifically defense and S&C. However, it will always be one of those “what if?” years. I wonder how things may have been had Kizer stayed on for this year.
Have a great, and safe, holiday everyone. I’ll be cheering with you during the bowl game!
