Looking over the schedule at the beginning of the year there were a handful of games I felt were must wins for this team, and the most important game to me was Michigan, granted I felt that they would be undefeated at this point of the year and in the top 5. For whatever reason when I see Michigan away on our schedule something in me makes me sit up a little straighter. Maybe it is the fact that Brain Kelly is still looking to snatch his first win at Michigan since taking the job, or it could just be the simple fact that when every game matters and our whole year is a playoff, bigger opponents just make you realize the opportunity you have to make a statement. Place that on top of the fact that this has been a long-standing rivalry and you have a great mix for a great college football game. So enough with the bravado, lets break this thing down.
Michigan, Week 8
Bye Week:
Coming off of a bye week has been historically good for us over the last 25 years, and what better week to have a bye than before traveling to Ann Arbor? Since 1994 we are 27-7 following bye weeks which is a significant statistical advantage for us. Michigan battled hard at PSU but fell short due to turnovers. From what I have heard we had a great bye week and were able to get back on track and healthy. Coming off of a bye is always an advantage for a team so I am looking for us to really come out sharp from the start.
Michigan Offense:
Lead by senior Shea Patterson the wolverines run a Pro-Spread style of offense that leans heavily on the run game in order to set up the offensive efficiency. Michigan has run 272 times for 1,078 yards and 17 touchdowns, while throwing 222 times for 1,663 yards and 10 touchdowns. The offense has struggled and Shea Patterson reflects that. Patterson on the year is completing 57% of his passes and has thrown 9 TD’s and 4 INT’s. Patterson has also been sacked 12 times in 7 games showing a lack of pocket awareness. The offense as a whole has struggled in other parts of the game including 3rd down conversions where they have gone 34-91, a 37% mark. They are averaging 4 yards per rush and are led by true freshman Zach Charbonnet who has 94 attempts, 457 yards and 7 TD’s a average rush of just under 5 yards. Last game vs PSU he rushed 15 times for 81 yards and 2 TD’s, a classic ground an pound style of runner who has only caught 8 balls out of the back field all season.
Michigan’s weapons on the outside have also struggled but still have plenty of talent to give us fits in the secondary. Despite the struggles the WR core is still averaging 13 yards a catch and have a total of 125 receptions. Peoples-Jones will be a difficult matchup as his size and possession receiving skills make him a viable target on any down as he is averaging 10 yards a catch. Nico Collins will be the biggest size mismatch for us. The second WR in receptions with 19, the 6 foot 4 junior has snagged 2 TD’s this season and is averaging 18.8 yards PR. The leading receiver is the speedy Ronnie Bell who has hauled in 24 receptions for 432 yards, his speed makes him a viable option at the X,Z or Y spots. You will likely see bell in different packages all night, he is a game breaker for Patterson.
TE’s are led by Senior Nick Eubanks who has just 4 receptions for 47 yards and no TD’s. Eubanks is a hell of a blocker and at 6’5 256 lbs he is more of a 3rd T out there that can open up holes for the running game. The real down field threat at TE is Sean Mckeon who has 6 receptions for 96 yards and 2 TD. Once again, he’s a big kid, 6’5 246 bs, and with the way that Michigan runs their offense these guys are play action or goal line threats. Their value is more with run block and pass protection than down field, so look for us to suffocate the LOS.
Overall, they are a talented group that can beat you by putting you to sleep with run play after run play. However, as demonstrated in the PSU game they will throw and can keep tempo if necessary. I expect them to be classic ground and pound meat and potatoes on offense. Much like Wisconsin’s offense, one dominical but can be dominate. Stop the run win the game, force Patterson to make thrown and command the LOS with penetration.
Michigan Defense:
I will not be going into to as much detail with this group. This is by far the least talented group for Jim that he has at Michigan. They rely on their linebacking to create chaos. Their LB’s lead the team in tackles, TFL and Sacks. They have a defensive efficiency of 76.2 which is average to below average. Put it this way. We have a rating of 81.1, Ohio State 91.3, Bama 84.0 and Clemson 95.8. It is a group that is very vulnerable to big plays especially on play action.
How to attack Michigan Defense:
Any team that presents a group of great linebackers like Michigan is going to be a good challenge for the OL and the run game. We have established ourselves on the ground the last 3 games as Jones has rushed for over 100 yards in each of the last three. The run schemes that we have been using with pulling Guard and zone blocking, have seemed to really allow our running game to flourish. With the zone scheme specifically, it is a great way to get up the field blocking on backers and create running room. We have seen this scheme with Long before and it seems to really be coming together the last 3 games. Granted that this Michigan team is disciplined so it will be a challenge, I expect that we will have success on the ground and will be able to generate big plays with Jones and Armstrong. I will be looking so see how we do with our downfield blocking in this game.
Using Kmet up the middle of this defense is going to be key for us. I am hoping to see plenty of 12, 02, 21 and 11 personnel groupings out on the field. We have shown more and more of these looks in the past few weeks which I think is a great wrinkle to throw into a spread offense. It gives you matchups that can exploit the middle of the Defense especially in Cover 2, Man drop 2 and even Cover 3 scenarios. Attacking the strength of this defense is actually going to be a good matchup for us. Though the LB core for Michigan is among the best in the country, our TE and personnel packages, IMO, are great for us. We possess all the right tools to attack this defense in a multitude of ways even going right at their throat.
I would like to see us come out aggressive and take shots when they are presented to us. I would also like to see us continue to incorporate the PA into our GP. We saw a lot of it during SC but it was used as more of a deep threat shot as opposed to a 10 yard even 5 yard gain. I think we have a great 12 PA play we can use to get over the top of these LB’s when they are dropping in Cover 2/3. Use that seam to attack and set up the run. I think that the offense can be extremely successful in this matchup.
Overall, need Ian to play up to his potential for 4 quarters and have this OL dominate like they have been. Spread the ball to the outside, then move it back to the middle through Kmet. Keep UM LB’s honest with the run, use zone scheme to establish second level blocking and convert on 3rd down with the run. No turnovers. Simple, come out fast and finish strong.
Notre Dame defensive plan:
Pretty simple here we need to stop the run. I do not think that we need to load the box every play but we will need to bring pressure. Patterson is poor under pressure and their OL has struggled with pass protection. If we can get them into passing down and situations, we will win this game.
Overall, I think that we will win this game 35-17. It will feel close at times but we will pull away with better play.
Michigan, Week 8
Bye Week:
Coming off of a bye week has been historically good for us over the last 25 years, and what better week to have a bye than before traveling to Ann Arbor? Since 1994 we are 27-7 following bye weeks which is a significant statistical advantage for us. Michigan battled hard at PSU but fell short due to turnovers. From what I have heard we had a great bye week and were able to get back on track and healthy. Coming off of a bye is always an advantage for a team so I am looking for us to really come out sharp from the start.
Michigan Offense:
Lead by senior Shea Patterson the wolverines run a Pro-Spread style of offense that leans heavily on the run game in order to set up the offensive efficiency. Michigan has run 272 times for 1,078 yards and 17 touchdowns, while throwing 222 times for 1,663 yards and 10 touchdowns. The offense has struggled and Shea Patterson reflects that. Patterson on the year is completing 57% of his passes and has thrown 9 TD’s and 4 INT’s. Patterson has also been sacked 12 times in 7 games showing a lack of pocket awareness. The offense as a whole has struggled in other parts of the game including 3rd down conversions where they have gone 34-91, a 37% mark. They are averaging 4 yards per rush and are led by true freshman Zach Charbonnet who has 94 attempts, 457 yards and 7 TD’s a average rush of just under 5 yards. Last game vs PSU he rushed 15 times for 81 yards and 2 TD’s, a classic ground an pound style of runner who has only caught 8 balls out of the back field all season.
Michigan’s weapons on the outside have also struggled but still have plenty of talent to give us fits in the secondary. Despite the struggles the WR core is still averaging 13 yards a catch and have a total of 125 receptions. Peoples-Jones will be a difficult matchup as his size and possession receiving skills make him a viable target on any down as he is averaging 10 yards a catch. Nico Collins will be the biggest size mismatch for us. The second WR in receptions with 19, the 6 foot 4 junior has snagged 2 TD’s this season and is averaging 18.8 yards PR. The leading receiver is the speedy Ronnie Bell who has hauled in 24 receptions for 432 yards, his speed makes him a viable option at the X,Z or Y spots. You will likely see bell in different packages all night, he is a game breaker for Patterson.
TE’s are led by Senior Nick Eubanks who has just 4 receptions for 47 yards and no TD’s. Eubanks is a hell of a blocker and at 6’5 256 lbs he is more of a 3rd T out there that can open up holes for the running game. The real down field threat at TE is Sean Mckeon who has 6 receptions for 96 yards and 2 TD. Once again, he’s a big kid, 6’5 246 bs, and with the way that Michigan runs their offense these guys are play action or goal line threats. Their value is more with run block and pass protection than down field, so look for us to suffocate the LOS.
Overall, they are a talented group that can beat you by putting you to sleep with run play after run play. However, as demonstrated in the PSU game they will throw and can keep tempo if necessary. I expect them to be classic ground and pound meat and potatoes on offense. Much like Wisconsin’s offense, one dominical but can be dominate. Stop the run win the game, force Patterson to make thrown and command the LOS with penetration.
Michigan Defense:
I will not be going into to as much detail with this group. This is by far the least talented group for Jim that he has at Michigan. They rely on their linebacking to create chaos. Their LB’s lead the team in tackles, TFL and Sacks. They have a defensive efficiency of 76.2 which is average to below average. Put it this way. We have a rating of 81.1, Ohio State 91.3, Bama 84.0 and Clemson 95.8. It is a group that is very vulnerable to big plays especially on play action.
How to attack Michigan Defense:
Any team that presents a group of great linebackers like Michigan is going to be a good challenge for the OL and the run game. We have established ourselves on the ground the last 3 games as Jones has rushed for over 100 yards in each of the last three. The run schemes that we have been using with pulling Guard and zone blocking, have seemed to really allow our running game to flourish. With the zone scheme specifically, it is a great way to get up the field blocking on backers and create running room. We have seen this scheme with Long before and it seems to really be coming together the last 3 games. Granted that this Michigan team is disciplined so it will be a challenge, I expect that we will have success on the ground and will be able to generate big plays with Jones and Armstrong. I will be looking so see how we do with our downfield blocking in this game.
Using Kmet up the middle of this defense is going to be key for us. I am hoping to see plenty of 12, 02, 21 and 11 personnel groupings out on the field. We have shown more and more of these looks in the past few weeks which I think is a great wrinkle to throw into a spread offense. It gives you matchups that can exploit the middle of the Defense especially in Cover 2, Man drop 2 and even Cover 3 scenarios. Attacking the strength of this defense is actually going to be a good matchup for us. Though the LB core for Michigan is among the best in the country, our TE and personnel packages, IMO, are great for us. We possess all the right tools to attack this defense in a multitude of ways even going right at their throat.
I would like to see us come out aggressive and take shots when they are presented to us. I would also like to see us continue to incorporate the PA into our GP. We saw a lot of it during SC but it was used as more of a deep threat shot as opposed to a 10 yard even 5 yard gain. I think we have a great 12 PA play we can use to get over the top of these LB’s when they are dropping in Cover 2/3. Use that seam to attack and set up the run. I think that the offense can be extremely successful in this matchup.
Overall, need Ian to play up to his potential for 4 quarters and have this OL dominate like they have been. Spread the ball to the outside, then move it back to the middle through Kmet. Keep UM LB’s honest with the run, use zone scheme to establish second level blocking and convert on 3rd down with the run. No turnovers. Simple, come out fast and finish strong.
Notre Dame defensive plan:
Pretty simple here we need to stop the run. I do not think that we need to load the box every play but we will need to bring pressure. Patterson is poor under pressure and their OL has struggled with pass protection. If we can get them into passing down and situations, we will win this game.
Overall, I think that we will win this game 35-17. It will feel close at times but we will pull away with better play.
