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Is this a really bad trend, or just coaches that need to be reprimanded?

theskibro

I've posted how many times?
Aug 24, 2003
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I don’t ever recall the recent flurry of teams going for it on fourth down. Sometimes it’s a yard. But most of the time it’s at least 3 yards and it’s not always a red zone situation. Some coaches have gone for it around the fifty

Just yesterday, Elko went for it at like the ten with a backup QB. Franklin went for it vs OSu

I don’t mind being aggressive but circumstances need to be considered. After Elko didn’t make it, Fsu blew open the game.

It can be a motivation once a team is stopped and that seems to be what’s happened after these failed conversions
 
Correct, its what the "Analytics" show based on down, distance and chance. Problem is that Analytics use raw data, they cant feel the emotion or the crowd or the time in the game. For that you need a human.

I had a rare opportunity to talk to Max Verstappen. If you dont know him, he is the best formula 1 racer for Red bull. It was a company event sponsored by the technology team that supports him (Oracle).

They were talking about the analytics on the car, and the feedback he gets from the engineers during training and setup. Someone asked him if the computers were ever wrong. I thought he would say no, since his sponsors were there. Surprisingly, he said yes, lots of times. HE said they cant predict the drafts from other cars, the rubber on the track, the bumps being formed, the wind direction from the cars, for that you just have to have a human feel it.

So I think coaches, need to have a "feel" more than just a data sheet. MF kicked FG's a few times at USC. The analytics probably said go for it. He is learning and getting a feel.
 
With Elko, the tv announcers stated that analytics predict higher rate of success, etc…. But the damn coach has to have the judgement to factor in the reality of having just inserted his back up QB due to injury of Edwards. Really an inexcusable decision in my opinion.

As for this trend, the offenses are dominating in college ball in many games, and it makes sense as a trend. But there are many games where offense is not dominating, and it Doesn’t make sense. With Penn St averaging 44 pts per game, analytics would suggest going for it on fourth and seemingly long (4 plus yds), and That would be right most of the time. But coaches get paid to use judgment, not analytics, and going for it against a dominant Ohio St defense at Ohio St, for example, made no sense.
 
I don’t ever recall the recent flurry of teams going for it on fourth down. Sometimes it’s a yard. But most of the time it’s at least 3 yards and it’s not always a red zone situation. Some coaches have gone for it around the fifty

Just yesterday, Elko went for it at like the ten with a backup QB. Franklin went for it vs OSu

I don’t mind being aggressive but circumstances need to be considered. After Elko didn’t make it, Fsu blew open the game.

It can be a motivation once a team is stopped and that seems to be what’s happened after these failed conversions
Lmfao.......I was just saying the same thing yesterday
 
I work in so called analytics, using so called artificial intelligence. It's basically the brute force computing of statistical probability, on which a a decision is made. To be more formal, it uses classification, factor analysis, and prediction algorithms...like regressions and neural networks.

It works best in simple tasks. Like playing chess, driving, and most efficient connection flights on planes. It gets much tougher to predict accurately if too many variables need to be weighed in complex tasks...like suggesting what football play to run.

I am familiar with soccer analytics. You can track things like how far a player has run in a game. If he's run > his average early, you can to some degree take advantage of this. If an opponent gives up most goals on the right side with certain players, well, maybe you try to attack more on the right?

As other have said, you really need a human making the final call. A machine just can't adequately fine tune the situation. Maybe tat soccer player on the right gives up the most goals on his team, but also has the most assists due to being an excellent wingback on counterattacks...so do you tempt fate going his lane?

I have to imagine it's the same in football. Humans have a feel, a so called heuristic factor, that machines can't really come up with as well in tight space in a complex task. On that, even though I am not an Xs and Os expert...hell, even I know some silly calls are being made on 4th downs. Probably because coaches and staff haven't been advised as well on analytics.

I could be wrong...but in sports I don't believe the application of analytics is as sophisticated as in, for example, stock trading. You better believe the bots are conservative, with a lot of risk based rules being applied to limit losses. Consider 70% - 90% daily trading asks and bids are by machines...yet they manage to tank entire markets.

They'll blow a play call too...sometimes stupidly.
 
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There always seems to be a high profile game where Franklin just muffs it. AT least once to twice a season. If it weren't for his recruiting, he would be shown the door.
 
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I don’t ever recall the recent flurry of teams going for it on fourth down. Sometimes it’s a yard. But most of the time it’s at least 3 yards and it’s not always a red zone situation. Some coaches have gone for it around the fifty

Just yesterday, Elko went for it at like the ten with a backup QB. Franklin went for it vs OSu

I don’t mind being aggressive but circumstances need to be considered. After Elko didn’t make it, Fsu blew open the game.

It can be a motivation once a team is stopped and that seems to be what’s happened after these failed conversions
Said same about Elko

Duke was up 3, take another 3 pts on the road against a top ranked team. Especially with Leonard hurt again which was the difference
 
There always seems to be a high profile game where Franklin just muffs it. AT least once to twice a season. If it weren't for his recruiting, he would be shown the door.
This is so true. He has underachieved every year. They have 3 first rounders on that team this year. So much talent on both sides
 
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